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Plex Prices

First post
Author
Gallowmere Rorschach
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#461 - 2015-05-06 21:49:14 UTC
Angelica Everstar wrote:
I know of a few "speculative investors", that do not touch PLEX, due to CCP has clearly and repeatedly stated that "massive" manipulation of PLEX will get you banned.

I won't touch them anymore for a few reasons, and being banned isn't one of them.
A: there is way too much damned volume for all but the most wealthy individuals (likely the literal top 1%) to make much of a dent.
B: CCP can throw PLEX on sale whenever they want, for however long they want, and completely screw up anything you were trying to accomplish.
C: it is one of the few things in Eve (along with Aurum based items) that have a theoretically infinite supply. A bored guy with a fat wallet could completely annihilate the PLEX market within thirty minutes, if he felt so inclined.
Elizabeth Norn
Nornir Research
Nornir Empire
#462 - 2015-05-06 22:08:34 UTC
Angelica Everstar wrote:
I know of a few "speculative investors", that do not touch PLEX, due to CCP has clearly and repeatedly stated that "massive" manipulation of PLEX will get you banned.


I haven't heard of that before, how massive is "massive?
Koniforous
Tauren Transit
#463 - 2015-05-06 22:45:56 UTC  |  Edited by: Koniforous
Gallowmere Rorschach wrote:
Koniforous wrote:

Occasionally, however, the short in supply due to demand is driven by speculative investors, and that is not healthy for the economy, nor for ccp as a business.

Make sure and phone BP and Exxon-Mobil to inform them that speculators are bad for business.
Give us a detailed write-up of how long they spend laughing at you.

I never said they were bad for business, I said bad for the economy. More specifically, I said when demand driven price increase is caused primarily by investors it is bad for the economy.

The housing bubble and its collapse is one such example.

I guess I did! But that was intended differently....
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#464 - 2015-05-06 22:53:56 UTC
Koniforous, speculators, monkeys with fifty times the leverage, sphaghetti monsters - they all provide liquidity to the market. What is unhealthy, is the dropping velocity of the commodity in question, which is somewhat similar to velocity of money concept, as could be observed in the economy beyond the Eve Gate. Blink
Ria Nieyli
Amok.
Goonswarm Federation
#465 - 2015-05-07 11:17:25 UTC
Lucas Kell wrote:
But why would they draw a line? If anything, they want prices to be higher, as someone is more likely to buy an extra PLEX to sell for 3b isk than they are to sell one for 800m. I honestly don't think CCP will ever intervene beyond what they currently do, which is to slow down rapid spikes and falls in price, which they purely do to keep the economy from crashing.

There's a bit of truth though to the manipulation in that a large number of PLEX are held by traders and a lot are actively traded, but the primary driver for the continuous uptick in price is what people are willing to pay for purchase and consumption.

As it stands PLEX are actually pretty cheap. You can PLEX an account with a highsec miner playing semi-AFK for 2.5 hours a day can PLEX every month. That's one of the lowest forms of income, and you can still PLEX an account in a relatively small amount of playtime. I think it will be a long time before PLEX hits any form of ceiling.


PLEX is being actively manipulated, there's buy orders appearing at 10m above the next lowest one, I've even seen 4x5 sets with a larger than 0.01 ISK price difference that were placed at the same time. You then just wait for people to outbid you by 0.01 and you don't need to do anything else.

Another note about the Chinese server, their ships are about as twice as expensive as they are on our shard, if I do recall correctly. The equivalent PLEX price for Tranquility would be 1.5 billion per unit. The end is nearer than you think.

Additionally, for every person who wasn't injecting PLEX into the economy that will start doing so at higher prices, there's a person who doesn't need to buy as many to fund his ships. The supply will largely remain unchanged. It will drop way before the aforementioned price point too. At 900m p/u, people can buy a cheap T2 fit Vindicator with a single PLEX, whereas at 800m p/u, they need two. There are all sorts of price breakpoints like that along the way, that will gradually taper off supply as they are being hit. PLEX producers are a minority, and most of them are already established.

Now, let's spend a moment to talk about who actually uses PLEX. It's not, or you, or someone who wants to play for free. Can you guess who it is? That's right, it's alts! Nobody wants to pay for his second, or third or fourth account. Most people use cash for their main, however. Conversely, it's easier to stop subbing an alt than it is to stop subbing entirely if you were playing on a single account. People will shed those alts as they go. At this point, panic selling would begin as sell orders stop getting bought. It will be hilarious.
Jori McKie
Horde Vanguard.
Pandemic Horde
#466 - 2015-05-07 12:46:17 UTC
There is market manipulation that i have no doubt. The question is how much influence does it have? My take is not that much, you can't manipulate a downsizing/upsizing massive market into the complete opposite for a longer time period or in other words you can't reverse a market trend longterm you can just enhance it. Of course with enough ISK and time you could do that to smaller market getting the price to a new level but you will accumulate a lot of overpriced stuff while doing it.
The only group who could manipulate PLEX longterm are alliances with a high income per month due to renting or massive numbers like Goons, PL or NC and i guess that is who is Angelica Everstar referring to. But i might be totally wrong because i'm not privy to insider information.

"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths." - Abrazzar

u3pog
Ministerstvo na otbranata
#467 - 2015-05-07 16:36:25 UTC
Jori McKie wrote:
There is market manipulation that i have no doubt. The question is how much influence does it have? My take is not that much, you can't manipulate a downsizing/upsizing massive market into the complete opposite for a longer time period or in other words you can't reverse a market trend longterm you can just enhance it. Of course with enough ISK and time you could do that to smaller market getting the price to a new level but you will accumulate a lot of overpriced stuff while doing it.
The only group who could manipulate PLEX longterm are alliances with a high income per month due to renting or massive numbers like Goons, PL or NC and i guess that is who is Angelica Everstar referring to. But i might be totally wrong because i'm not privy to insider information.



There could be few individuals who could do this. I was astounded when I saw bids for super rare ships...People threw trillions of ISK like they were spare cash. However I saw someone mention CCP might ban people for massive manipulations of PLEX and they just might fall into that category, so no wonder why they ain't doing it.

I used to think 10 trillion is a lot of ISK, but to some people it might not be. What's the point of going over 1T ISK is beyond me, when there are so many other things to be done...Interesting times, I wonder how far will the PLEX price go prior 2nd of June.
Lucas Kell
Solitude Trading
#468 - 2015-05-07 17:43:36 UTC
Ria Nieyli wrote:
PLEX is being actively manipulated, there's buy orders appearing at 10m above the next lowest one, I've even seen 4x5 sets with a larger than 0.01 ISK price difference that were placed at the same time. You then just wait for people to outbid you by 0.01 and you don't need to do anything else.
That's not necessarily manipulation. If people are looking to buy PLEX to use, often they'll set buy orders at high enough to put of cutting, and low enough to make a saving on sell orders. In addition, I have maxed standings on my PLEX trader, so I'll often make big changes in price to crush the margins to squeeze out traders without those standings. Again, that's not a manipulation of a price, simply the margins.

Ria Nieyli wrote:
Another note about the Chinese server, their ships are about as twice as expensive as they are on our shard, if I do recall correctly. The equivalent PLEX price for Tranquility would be 1.5 billion per unit. The end is nearer than you think.
What "End". If PLEX goes up in price, nothing ends. It's not some cataclysmic event. You talk about it as if it's a fact that high PLEX prices are a bad thing.

Ria Nieyli wrote:
Additionally, for every person who wasn't injecting PLEX into the economy that will start doing so at higher prices, there's a person who doesn't need to buy as many to fund his ships. The supply will largely remain unchanged. It will drop way before the aforementioned price point too. At 900m p/u, people can buy a cheap T2 fit Vindicator with a single PLEX, whereas at 800m p/u, they need two. There are all sorts of price breakpoints like that along the way, that will gradually taper off supply as they are being hit. PLEX producers are a minority, and most of them are already established.

Now, let's spend a moment to talk about who actually uses PLEX. It's not, or you, or someone who wants to play for free. Can you guess who it is? That's right, it's alts! Nobody wants to pay for his second, or third or fourth account. Most people use cash for their main, however. Conversely, it's easier to stop subbing an alt than it is to stop subbing entirely if you were playing on a single account. People will shed those alts as they go. At this point, panic selling would begin as sell orders stop getting bought. It will be hilarious.
Prices would have to hit way above 5b before it would stop being worth it for most cash making alts, and what you forget is that as prices rise so does income. Back when PLEX was 200m, it was a lot harder to get 200m than it is now. There's also a lot more uses for PLEX than just alts, and those uses will undoubtedly continue to grow.

The Indecisive Noob - EVE fan blog.

Wholesale Trading - The new bulk trading mailing list.

Ria Nieyli
Amok.
Goonswarm Federation
#469 - 2015-05-07 18:24:41 UTC  |  Edited by: Ria Nieyli
Please tell me how you make upwards of 5b with your link alt, for example. Or cyno alt. That's the majority of alts, characters like these.

Seriously, your post is dumb as bricks. When you squeeze the margin, you squeeze from both ends, otherwise the other sellers would just post higher sell orders, achieving an upwards trend in price. Oops, nevermind?

Five billion, cite a source. China has theirs at 3, with the other stuff costing about 2x as much as on our shard. Guess what, 1.5b is less than double the price and you're talking about it increasing over five times?

Lucas pls.
Lucas Kell
Solitude Trading
#470 - 2015-05-07 19:15:31 UTC  |  Edited by: Lucas Kell
Ria Nieyli wrote:
Please tell me how you make upwards of 5b with your link alt, for example. Or cyno alt. That's the majority of alts, characters like these.
Those are support characters. If you create an account and only have support characters on it, you're doing EVE wrong.

Ria Nieyli wrote:
Seriously, your post is dumb as bricks. When you squeeze the margin, you squeeze from both ends, otherwise the other sellers would just post higher sell orders, achieving an upwards trend in price. Oops, nevermind?
Lol? And yours isn't? You're talking about rising PLEX price like it's the end of EVE and CCP if it goes much higher. It's not though, you're simply butthurt that PLEX is higher than you'd like. Get over it.

And when you trade PLEX, you tend to squeeze margins from the bottom, it tends to work better that way as people are more likely to cut your sell price to release capital even if they take a small loss. Overall price doesn't really change from it, and it's certainly not manipulation in the classic sense, since you're not striving (or succeeding) to drive the price.

Ria Nieyli wrote:
Five billion, cite a source. China has theirs at 3, with the other stuff costing about 2x as much as on our shard. Guess what, 1.5b is less than double the price and you're talking about it increasing over five times?
I'm not talking about it gettin that high, I'm simply stating that it wouldn't be the end of the world if it did. That would be about the limit of achievable with the current economy. But if it were to rise that high, the rest of the economy would rise with it, higher income would be more achievable, just like it always has.

The Indecisive Noob - EVE fan blog.

Wholesale Trading - The new bulk trading mailing list.

Ria Nieyli
Amok.
Goonswarm Federation
#471 - 2015-05-07 19:35:33 UTC  |  Edited by: Ria Nieyli
Lucas Kell wrote:
Those are support characters. If you create an account and only have support characters on it, you're doing EVE wrong.


So, if I have an account with three cyno alts that are positioned in different systems for maximum utility. I guess I could recycle one of them into a dedicated scanner alt and sell it every X months to recoup some of the costs, but that's hardly 5b/mo. Or I could just make a money-making alt on it and run Incursions for some risk-free moolah. Of course, that would mean that I'd need an additional account, but I can make an incursion alt on it too. And the offgrid booster on the other account? Make an incursion alt! At this point, it starts to feel like a second job, but at least I wouldn't need an incursion alt for my super alt account, because I can just rat with my super! OY VEY why don't I just multibox incursions?

Lucas Kell wrote:
Lol? And yours isn't? You're talking about rising PLEX price like it's the end of EVE and CCP if it goes much higher. It's not though, you're simply butthurt that PLEX is higher than you'd like. Get over it.


Yes, I'm 105% butthurt because YOU disagree with ME.


Lucas Kell wrote:
And when you trade PLEX, you tend to squeeze margins from the bottom, it tends to work better that way as people are more likely to cut your sell price to release capital even if they take a small loss. Overall price doesn't really change from it, and it's certainly not manipulation in the classic sense, since you're not striving (or succeeding) to drive the price.


Bullshit, demand exceeds supply for PLEX, so there's no reason to release capital and take a loss. Well, unless prices going up by 50m in a day is a natural occurence to you, and need I remind you of the 1b spike a while back?


Lucas Kell wrote:
I'm not talking about it gettin that high, I'm simply stating that it wouldn't be the end of the world if it did. That would be about the limit of achievable with the current economy. But if it were to rise that high, the rest of the economy would rise with it, higher income would be more achievable, just like it always has.


How would rising PLEX prices upturn the economy exactly? Last time I checked PLEX doesn't inject ISK into the economy. PLEX pricing is disjointed from the rest of the economy. Prices for everything else have been going down the last few months. Well, everything except rare collectibles, that is, but they're a special case unto themselves.
Lucas Kell
Solitude Trading
#472 - 2015-05-08 00:26:10 UTC
Ria Nieyli wrote:
So, if I have an account with three cyno alts that are positioned in different systems for maximum utility.
Then you are doing it wrong. Most people looking to pay for their accounts by PLEX will have at least one money making alt on each account, and passive income on as many characters as possible. I tend to train mine as traders and periodically dump a mass of goods for them to sell in their region which ticks income in pretty well, in addition to PI. Then each account has an active character, again usually a trader but much more heavily controlled.

Ria Nieyli wrote:
Yes, I'm 105% butthurt because YOU disagree with ME.
It's nothing to do with me, you obviously have a problem with the idea of PLEX prices which is leading to you making extreme predictions about the death of the economy and CCP.

Ria Nieyli wrote:
Bullshit, demand exceeds supply for PLEX, so there's no reason to release capital and take a loss. Well, unless prices going up by 50m in a day is a natural occurence to you, and need I remind you of the 1b spike a while back?
Of course there's a reason, not everyone wants to sit on the PLEX and the prices don't always move as quickly as they have right now. If someone who can consistently crush your margins is doing so, you may choose to simply move your isk to more profitable ventures. The 1b spike was market manipulation, guaranteed.

Ria Nieyli wrote:
How would rising PLEX prices upturn the economy exactly? Last time I checked PLEX doesn't inject ISK into the economy. PLEX pricing is disjointed from the rest of the economy. Prices for everything else have been going down the last few months. Well, everything except rare collectibles, that is, but they're a special case unto themselves.
No, but both the income streams and PLEX prices go up over time. Are you claiming that income hasn't increase since the days of 200m/PLEX? Prices for goods may go down, but achievable income will tend to increase.

The Indecisive Noob - EVE fan blog.

Wholesale Trading - The new bulk trading mailing list.

Koniforous
Tauren Transit
#473 - 2015-05-08 00:49:14 UTC
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#474 - 2015-05-08 00:54:51 UTC
Comparing our prices (where ratting bots are hunted down by GMs with at least moderate effectiveness) to the Chinese server (where the GMs turn a blind eye to ratting bots) tells you nothing.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#475 - 2015-05-08 00:58:33 UTC
Also as for seriously manipulating the PLEX market - it's not really doable. There's a bit under a trillion ISK worth of PLEX in Jita on the market now which probably a hundred individuals in game have enough ISK to buy out entirely. But there's a lot more in hangars.

There is more wealth in PLEX on the market in Jita than there is in the seven minerals combined.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

Vibiana
Frontier Trading Company
#476 - 2015-05-08 09:13:55 UTC  |  Edited by: Vibiana
Well, I don't believe (and I don't see the volume) in massive demand on NEW 1 bil worth frig/dessie/cruiser skins. So there are no substantial reasons for current market trend, except EvE most common type of speculation "buy out and see what happens next"
Shakuul
Infinitus Sapientia
#477 - 2015-05-08 17:10:12 UTC
Koniforous wrote:
Gallowmere Rorschach wrote:
Koniforous wrote:

Occasionally, however, the short in supply due to demand is driven by speculative investors, and that is not healthy for the economy, nor for ccp as a business.

Make sure and phone BP and Exxon-Mobil to inform them that speculators are bad for business.
Give us a detailed write-up of how long they spend laughing at you.

I never said they were bad for business, I said bad for the economy. More specifically, I said when demand driven price increase is caused primarily by investors it is bad for the economy.

The housing bubble and its collapse is one such example.

I guess I did! But that was intended differently....


Real economic collapses are bad for a number of reasons: they create income problems, cash flow problems, and increase search costs as huge numbers of people lost their jobs and homes.

The health of the EVE "economy" is really determined by player activity, so PLEX speculation is only bad if it gets players to quit. In the long run, I don't know if that's the case. As a new player, if I can buy everything I need by selling a single PLEX the game looks a lot more appealing than if it takes 3 PLEX to get what I want.

Speculators are a good thing because they translate information about the future into prices today leading to more efficient pricing. If zydrine was going to be worth 1300 post patch, speculators help get it there so people make the correct purchase decisions and manufacturing choices. It would be wasteful to use a bunch of zydrine making T1 guns at 5% margins if the zydrine you bought for 400 per unit is going to be worth 1300 per unit in a few months.
Teckos Pech
Patriotic Tendencies
Goonswarm Federation
#478 - 2015-05-13 06:12:27 UTC
Lucas Kell wrote:
Ria Nieyli wrote:
CCP doesn't directly manage the Chinese server, though. CCP earns more cold, hard cash per PLEX used than if that person were to subscribe through a credit card. Especially when you consider the discounts they give for buying multiple months at the same time. If you take into account that economics stats that CCP released show that EVE's economy is deflationary, the only conclusion is that PLEX is currently massively overpriced due to upwards manipulation. The question is, where will CCP draw the line, since it's directly tied to their profit as a company.
But why would they draw a line? If anything, they want prices to be higher, as someone is more likely to buy an extra PLEX to sell for 3b isk than they are to sell one for 800m. I honestly don't think CCP will ever intervene beyond what they currently do, which is to slow down rapid spikes and falls in price, which they purely do to keep the economy from crashing.

There's a bit of truth though to the manipulation in that a large number of PLEX are held by traders and a lot are actively traded, but the primary driver for the continuous uptick in price is what people are willing to pay for purchase and consumption.

As it stands PLEX are actually pretty cheap. You can PLEX an account with a highsec miner playing semi-AFK for 2.5 hours a day can PLEX every month. That's one of the lowest forms of income, and you can still PLEX an account in a relatively small amount of playtime. I think it will be a long time before PLEX hits any form of ceiling.


The problem here Lucas is that a 3 billion PLEX price is sustained by the massive botting that goes on in Serenity and keeping in mind that there are even fewer players on Serenity. Surely you are not suggesting botting be allowed.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Anthar Thebess
#479 - 2015-05-13 07:28:52 UTC
On Chinese server you can officially BOT, this is even enforced by some of the groups.
When i see upcoming changers it is big possibility that plex prices can drop, as people will be more willing to sell plexes to get citadel under their banner.

I think that limiting thing , blocking most of the players from starting to play in this game is initial "fun lag".
Observed this more than once:
1. New player logins
2. SPACESHIPS SPACESHIPS
3. Where to get isk - oh this is some way to do it.
4. I cannot fly this , and last 2 weeks of skill points i invested in worthless stuff
5. F%%%C this game i will no longer wait to have some fun

Why this is important for plex prices?
Many new players buy initially few plexes to fund them self basic ships.
Elizabeth Norn
Nornir Research
Nornir Empire
#480 - 2015-06-09 16:41:02 UTC