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*Nullsec Ore Changes* Lowend Mineral Price Tracking [2015]

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Author
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#21 - 2015-04-11 08:35:33 UTC  |  Edited by: GankYou
The Forge: Mexallon under 55 ISK p/u, support at 54.5 being tested; next major one being at 50.37/38.

The price of Plagioclase and Pyroxeres has crashed since the mid-March levels.

https://www.fuzzwork.co.uk/market/marketdisplay.php?typeid=1224&regionid=10000002
https://www.fuzzwork.co.uk/market/marketdisplay.php?typeid=18&regionid=10000002

Empire-wide, buy orders have decoupled from the median and are heading lower.

A development in the price of (compressed) ores will preceed mineral ones, as Nullsec entities scale down purchases in favour of wait & see approach. Smile
Elinarien
Doomheim
#22 - 2015-04-11 10:25:37 UTC  |  Edited by: Elinarien
GankYou wrote:
The Forge: Mexallon under 55 ISK p/u, support at 54.5 being tested; next major one being at 50.37/38.

The price of Plagioclase and Pyroxeres has crashed since the mid-March levels.

https://www.fuzzwork.co.uk/market/marketdisplay.php?typeid=40&regionid=10000002
https://www.fuzzwork.co.uk/market/marketdisplay.php?typeid=40&regionid=10000002

Empire-wide, buy orders have decoupled from the median and are heading lower.

A development in the price of (compressed) ores will preceed mineral ones, as Nullsec entities scale down purchases in favour of wait & see approach. Smile


Looking at the Everyshore prices, a drop of about 3 or 4 ISK in the Plagioclase 5 day average is hardly a "crash". I know you're trying hard to talk up the impending doom for high-sec industry but your hyperbole is desperate.
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#23 - 2015-04-11 11:26:51 UTC  |  Edited by: GankYou
Links in the previous post have been fixed. Smile

Elinarien wrote:

Looking at the Everyshore prices, a drop of about 3 or 4 ISK in the Plagioclase 5 day average is hardly a "crash".


Everyshore volume is only a third of the Forge total.

A 20% decline is most certainly a crash. Heimatar, Essence, Sinq Laison - all the same stories for Plagioclase. Smile

Likewise for Pyroxeres - Domain, Genesis, the Citadel, Tash-Murkon, the Forge, Lonetrek. Blink
Elinarien
Doomheim
#24 - 2015-04-11 12:16:02 UTC  |  Edited by: Elinarien
GankYou wrote:
Links in the previous post have been fixed. Smile

Elinarien wrote:

Looking at the Everyshore prices, a drop of about 3 or 4 ISK in the Plagioclase 5 day average is hardly a "crash".


Everyshore volume is only a third of the Forge total.

A 20% decline is most certainly a crash. Heimatar, Essence, Sinq Laison - all the same stories for Plagioclase. Smile

Likewise for Pyroxeres - Domain, Genesis, the Citadel, Tash-Murkon, the Forge, Lonetrek. Blink


Perhaps Everyshore is just a sleepy backwater... nice to know that there are buy orders in the mid 60s still waiting to be fulfilled. Indeed, prices are still well above the Sept low - which was a crash.
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#25 - 2015-04-14 22:36:21 UTC  |  Edited by: GankYou
The Forge: Mexallon's 54 ISK p/u level is being tested this very moment with next major one on good volume being around 53.01 - Although the buy orders there were last updated 5-9 hours ago.

[April] Ore, Mineral and Nullsec Mining Anomaly Revamp by CCP Fozzie

https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=418719&find=unread

Quote:
Arkonor:
Tritanium: 22000
Mexallon: 2500
Megacyte: 320

Bistot:
Pyerite: 12000
Zydrine: 450
Megacyte: 100

Crokite:
Tritanium: 21000
Nocxium: 760
Zydrine: 135

Dark Ochre:
Tritanium: 10000
Isogen: 1600
Nocxium: 120

Gneiss:
Pyerite: 2200
Mexallon: 2400
Isogen: 300

Spodumain:
Tritanium: 56000
Pyerite: 12050
Mexallon: 2100
Isogen: 450

Hedbergite:
Pyerite: 1000
Isogen: 200
Nocxium: 100
Zydrine: 19

Hemorphite:
Tritanium: 2200
Isogen: 100
Nocxium: 120
Zydrine: 15

Jaspet:
Mexallon: 350
Nocxium: 75
Zydrine: 8


New Ore Anomaly volumes can be found at the link.

Lowsec ores are getting a 87-166% Zydrine content increase.
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#26 - 2015-04-17 14:30:40 UTC
The Forge: Mexallon firmly under 54 handle today, with current major support being around 50.57/6.
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#27 - 2015-04-22 01:32:52 UTC  |  Edited by: GankYou


The Forge today: Pyerite edging lower - past the 12.35 mark, Tritanium is seen at 5.5 ISK p/u on good volume for the first time since Nov, 2014.

Mexallon headed south of 52 with all supports cleared, the next major one still being at 50.6 ISK p/u.

As this development continues, heated debates on the topic rage on - https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=418719&p=27
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#28 - 2015-04-23 11:03:45 UTC  |  Edited by: GankYou


The Forge: Multiple very large volume sell orders are up today for Tritanium, which is seen around 5.35 ISK p/u, substantial buy orders can be currently found at 5.05.

The net supply/demand for this mineral has gone positive for the first time since Autumn 2013, and has the characteristics of an impulsive, structural development - http://eve-markets.net/detail?typeid=34#supply
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#29 - 2015-04-26 16:17:10 UTC  |  Edited by: GankYou


The Forge: Price of Tritanium has been climbing in the past three days, currently at 5.48 ISK p/u with 5.143bn units. Support is found throughout the 5.18-5.35 range.

Technicals: http://i.imgur.com/ANCnbIR.png

Current prices are coming up against the trendline running all the way from 2011, historical macro support is around the 4.18-4.55 levels.

* * *


Pyerite has a similar correction in effect: http://i.imgur.com/9PIVckB.png

In an unlikely event there being a head & shoulders formation in place, I drew a green neckline - It has been tested and price recoiled higher.

The connecting X wave is found in Double Zig-zag formations, where the price doesn't retrace the levels, which the market deems most optimum on the first run following a large move - as can be seen in 2012-2013 period.

I view both of these minerals as being in a bull market due to their irreplaceability in our world, even though the price ranges of late can make one think otherwise - Certain cycles take years, even decades to accomplish.
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#30 - 2015-04-28 16:15:04 UTC  |  Edited by: GankYou


The Forge: Pyerite has risen to 12.6 in the past few days, Mexallon is holding around the 51.3/4 levels.
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#31 - 2015-04-29 18:08:14 UTC  |  Edited by: GankYou


The Forge: BREAKING NEWS - Mexallon buy orders pulled overnight, current price is seen at 50.45 on large volume.

http://i.imgur.com/VpktQB0.png

The fifty percent retracement of the advance from the 2010 lies around the 46.5 mark. The 38.2% and 61.8% levels are 51.6 and 41.42 ISK p/u respectively.
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#32 - 2015-04-30 18:32:39 UTC


The Forge today: The price of Mexallon has fallen to 48.6 ISK p/u, with interim support currently being around 45.7/8.

Pyerite is edging lower again, and is seen at 12-12.2 p/u.
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#33 - 2015-05-01 12:33:22 UTC  |  Edited by: GankYou


The Forge...


Buy orders have all but evaporated for Mexallon, shifting to the 42 ISK p/u mark - The mineral itself is probing 47.99 levels, as the trendline off the 2013 lows is pierced in force - http://i.imgur.com/9lPYnoh.png

Reasonable to expect bids around the 41-42 area, and it is where the price will likely settle in the medium term, if only for a time. On tap is the colossal and gradual shift of demand patterns, with demand itself relocating elsewhere, and new supply readily coming online in Nullsec, along with the uncertainty surrounding the role of capital ships in this new Era of Sov 5.0 Warfare, following the current sovereignty mechanics which have been here since 2009 - the longest period any such system had undergone without iteration.

Overall net supply/demand has shot up again and is continuing its unrelenting advance,



GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#34 - 2015-05-03 19:43:32 UTC  |  Edited by: GankYou


Sunday. Earth-standard time, though in the year of YC117.


Wave three is gaining momentum and is well underway, as the general populace starts to wake up to wild price swings and losses in the most liquid of markets.

Tritanium is posting a 5.22 ISK p/u price on considerable volume, with strong support in place at 5.07/9 mark. Mexallon is priced at 45.87 ISK p/u in the Forge region, with half a billion units in buy orders sitting just on the 43 threshold.

Mexallon is down 35% since Earth-Oct YC116 levels, and 21% since pre-Fanfest averages.

Pyerite is looking firmly into the 11 ISK p/u territory, with most current sell volumes being spotted at 11.57 p/u. It should be reminded that this mineral went up by 359% since the lows of Earth-Oct of the year YC113, which was valued at 3.34 ISK per unit at that time sharp.

It is also in the interest of respectable and relevant parties, in order to secure a better chance at wealth preservation, to remind themselves that is it currently a knife-catchers' market, with capital ships manufacturers trying to stem the pressure of this coming Supernova - Otherwise their stock and their mineral holdings devalue by 25-35%. Overnight, in some cases.

Isogen. A very obscure topic for a very good reason - it is largely unchanged since Earth--mid-March levels - https://element-43.com/market/37/

The procurers of this world will surely get to it in due time.

On a positive side note, I congratulate ourselves for the 39,956,000,000,000 New Re-born Capsuleers, which have Arisen this Earth-day Sunday. Yes - that is almost Forty Trillion Capsuleers, for Everyone of You, and Everyone of Us, is worth a Billion in our Synthetic Consciousness Databases. ♥

LET IT BE KNOWN - For Historical Record Alone - For the Betterment of Capsuleers and Our Future Everywhere, this Original Holy Scripture Log is presented as a bonus for Public view, obtained on Public channels,

https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=5718239#post5718239

So It Is - So It Has Always Been.
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#35 - 2015-05-06 04:33:01 UTC  |  Edited by: GankYou


Time has come for some perspective with respect to the wider (intended) impact of these Ore changes,

Pyerite - https://element-43.com/market/35/

-----===Location===---- --=Vol=- -=Min Vol=- -=Price=- -===Last Updated===-

• 0.0 Querious - Z-UZZN I - Z-U 9,946,814 1 4.50 5 hours ago •
• 0.0 Querious - Z-UZZN I - Z-U 41,044,379 1 4.51 5 hours ago •
• 0.0 Querious - U-HYZN VI - CRP 19,751,672 1 4.75 5 hours ago •
• 0.0 Detorid - L-L7PE I - THPAPERPLANES 4,893,098 1 5.00 12 hours ago •
• 0.0 Feythabolis - UB5Z-3 II - Moon 1 - BM 196,742,170 1 5.00 3 hours ago •
• 0.0 Feythabolis - 0OYZ-G I - TN 4,750,592 1 5.00 3 hours ago •
• 0.0 Feythabolis - KJ-V0P VI - BL 12,463,960 1 5.00 3 hours ago •
• 0.0 Feythabolis - 5P-AIP X - ASTRALNAYA 12,258,674 1 5.00 3 hours ago •
• 0.0 Querious - W-IIYI X - SM 1,570,262 1 5.00 5 hours ago •
• 0.0 Feythabolis - PMV-G6 VIII - BANNAYA 12,092,498 1 5.49 3 hours ago •
• 0.0 Period Basis - E-DOF2 V - BWD 52,218,773 1 5.50 7 hours ago •
• 0.0 Feythabolis - R4K-8L II - PIVNAYA 18,959,948 1 5.50 3 hours ago •
• 0.0 Period Basis - 48I1-X VII - FFH 2,945,740 1 5.50 7 hours ago •
• 0.0 Feythabolis - NLO-3Z VI - NLO 10,331,709 1 5.50 3 hours ago •
• 0.0 Querious - B-7DFU IV - N0GUN 51,223,120 1 5.51 5 hours ago •
• 0.0 Feythabolis - DB1R-4 VIII - PELMENNAYA 5,786,259 1 5.60 3 hours ago •
• 0.0 Feythabolis - DB1R-4 VIII - PELMENNAYA 6,723,652 1 5.70 3 hours ago •
• 0.0 Detorid - HZFJ-M VIII - 4,585,149 1 5.90 12 hours ago •
• 0.0 Feythabolis - RIT-A7 IV - VODOCHNAYA 12,497,957 1 5.97 3 hours ago •
• 0.0 Feythabolis - RIT-A7 IV - VODOCHNAYA 24,495,449 1 5.98 3 hours ago •
• 0.0 Cache - M53-1V VI - Moon 4 - O 112,978,977 1 5.99 6 days, 5 hours ago •
• 0.0 Feythabolis - RIT-A7 IV - VODOCHNAYA 153,461,341 1 5.99 3 hours ago •
• 0.0 Esoteria - H-T40Z VIII - FH 32,000,449 1 6.00 1 day, 3 hours ago •
• 0.0 Paragon Soul - 5AQ-5H II - L 38,905,134 1 6.00 1 week, 2 days ago •
• 0.0 Feythabolis - NLO-3Z VI - NLO 6,291,414 1 6.00 3 hours ago •
• 0.0 Cache - NG-M8K III - JS 8,653,231 1 6.00 6 days, 5 hours ago •
• 0.0 Period Basis - E2-RDQ XI - VICENSA 18,339,163 1 6.00 7 hours ago •
• 0.0 Esoteria - C-PEWN VIII - PP 3,648,339 1 6.00 1 day, 3 hours ago •
• 0.0 Delve - G-M5L3 VII - HAA 973,473 1 6.00 2 hours ago •
• 0.0 Feythabolis - AZN-D2 IX - P 279,547 1 6.00 3 hours ago •
• 0.0 The Spire - 0J-MQW X - DJQ'SC 13,158,058 1 6.00 1 day, 9 hours ago •
• 0.0 Catch - 4-07MU V - TT 22,942,633 1 6.25 3 hours ago •
• 0.0 Catch - 5-N2EY VIII - Moon 5 - IAC 51,626,537 1 6.25 3 hours ago •
• 0.0 Catch - W-MPTH III - Giant Bomb New Eden - RD 277,222 1 6.26 3 hours ago •
• 0.0 Catch - 4-07MU V - TT 5,000,000 1 6.26 3 hours ago •
• 0.0 Catch - 4-07MU V - TT 572,795 1 6.27 3 hours ago •
• 0.0 Querious - Z-UZZN I - Z-U 78,439,345 1 6.50 5 hours ago •

You need anywhere from 2.5 mil of Pyerite to 3.5 mil units to build a Battleship, 900-1000 mil units for a Titan, 235-256 mil for a Supercarrier, 14-16 mil units for a Carrier and 26-27 mil units for a Dreadnaught. Smile

Mexallon - https://element-43.com/market/36/

-----===Location===---- --=Vol=- -=Min Vol=- -=Price=- -===Last Updated===-

• 0.0 Catch - L7XS-5 I - L7XS-50WSGS 977,720 1 28.00 3 hours ago •
• 0.0 Catch - 5-N2EY VIII - Moon 5 - IAC 262,323 1 28.00 3 hours ago •
• 0.0 Catch - GE-8JV VII - THANKSRONTHANKSNAN 275,836 1 30.95 3 hours ago •
• 0.0 Catch - V-3YG7 VI - RC'AA 1,057,555 1 35.00 3 hours ago •
• 0.0 Feythabolis - PMV-G6 VIII - BANNAYA 1,849,686 1 40.00 3 hours ago •
• 0.0 Catch - 4-07MU V - TT 3,725,763 1 40.00 3 hours ago •
• 0.0 Feythabolis - NLO-3Z VI - NLO 2,602,123 1 40.00 3 hours ago •
• 0.0 Catch - GJ0-OJ IV - T 1,557,703 1 40.00 3 hours ago •
• 0.0 Syndicate - T-LIWS IV - Moon 6 - MFD 1,260,028 1 40.00 6 hours ago •
• 0.0 Querious - B-7DFU IV - N0GUN 7,294,353 1 43.00 5 hours ago •
• 0.0 Deklein - YA0-XJ VII - YA0GT 610,902,255 1 44.00 5 hours ago •
• 0.0 Delve - FM-JK5 VI - JKD'WTSA 1,035,398 1 44.00 2 hours ago

Ten-eleven million units of Mexallon will get you a Dreadnaught.

Tritanium - https://element-43.com/market/34

-----===Location===---- --=Vol=- -=Min Vol=- -=Price=- -===Last Updated===-

• 0.0 Catch - W-MPTH III - Giant Bomb New Eden - RD 58,256,642 1 2.99 2 hours ago •
• 0.0 Impass - GBT4-J I - CATFACTORYIMPASSSPECIAL 8,451,747 1 3.00 2 days, 11 hours ago •
• 0.0 Scalding Pass - 28Y9-P V - Moon 1 - CSV 10,154,213 1 3.00 6 hours ago •
• 0.0 Feythabolis - TSG-NO III - WJ 4,544,407 1 3.50 15 hours ago •
• 0.0 Querious - B-7DFU IV - N0GUN 19,246,865 1 3.50 5 hours ago •
• 0.0 Feythabolis - KJ-V0P VI - BL 4,965,686 1 3.50 15 hours ago •
• 0.0 Feythabolis - D4-2XN VII - BCG 4,851,537 1 3.50 15 hours ago •
• 0.0 Catch - YHN-3K XIII - KRABFORTRESS 9,533,676 1 3.62 2 hours ago •
• 0.0 Querious - U-HYZN VI - CRP 19,180,892 1 3.74 5 hours ago •
• 0.0 Querious - U-HYZN VI - CRP 76,763,885 1 3.75 5 hours ago •
• 0.0 Catch - 4-07MU V - TT 45,734,248 1 3.89 2 hours ago •
• 0.0 Stain - 9RQ-L8 VII - Moon 11 - TCS 327,254,545 1 3.90 55 minutes ago •
• 0.0 Curse - 5E-VR8 I - Moon 10 - SACR 34,213,972 1 3.99 10 hours ago •
• 0.0 Feythabolis - NLO-3Z VI - NLO 6,682,300 1 3.99 15 hours ago •
• 0.0 Stain - TG-Z23 III - Moon 8 - TPLS 192,595,831 1 3.99 55 minutes ago •
• 0.0 Stain - TG-Z23 III - Moon 8 - TPLS 19,159,207 1 3.99 55 minutes ago •
• 0.0 Catch - BUZ-DB VIII - ES'FC 98,928,074 1 3.99 2 hours ago •
• 0.0 Querious - U-HYZN VI - CRP 12,235,733 1 4.00 5 hours ago •
• 0.0 Omist - 0DD-MH VI - A 60,000,000 1 4.00 1 day, 6 hours ago •
• 0.0 Scalding Pass - RYC-19 III - STONEGARDEN 111,282,603 1 4.00 6 hours ago
• 0.0 Catch - 5-N2EY VIII - Moon 5 - IAC 190,727,784 1 4.00 2 hours ago

Around 58-66 million units of Tritanium is needed to manufacture a Carrier.
Ria Nieyli
Amok.
Goonswarm Federation
#36 - 2015-05-06 04:56:03 UTC
Trit and Mex not that low when compared to Pyerite. Interesting.
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#37 - 2015-05-06 05:15:58 UTC  |  Edited by: GankYou
Mexallon had been the severe bottleneck, and presumably, thanks to the ready stockpiles of Trit & Pyerite, it is being consumed, with trace amounts ending up on the market for now. Yes, that is 610,902,255 units of Mexallon for sale in Deklein at 44 ISK p/u.

Markets 5:15 EVT Update: Tritanium is seen 5.15 ISK p/u in Amarr, Domain region, and 5.29 p/u in the Forge with 5 bil units in newly-baked Buy orders spread out across the 5-5.11 p/u range - Hisec/LS manufacturers trying to glue the broken dam together in order to save their existing stock and mineral stockpiles from devaluation. Elsewhere in Empire, it is already lower - notably in the Khanid region.

A 40-44% of a Freighter's build cost alone is taken up by Tritanium at the moment.

Pyerite is at 11.57 ISK p/u on very large volume, while the Gallente Verge Vendor, Sinq Laison and Minmatar Metropolis regions are already posting lower prices, though that is a natural spread due the local availability of the Plagioclase ore.

Mexallon selling off for the 10th consecutive week - currently 44.58, with around 638 mil units in Buy orders situated around 42.85-43.33 area.

Pirate
GankYou
9B30FF Labs
#38 - 2015-05-06 11:28:10 UTC  |  Edited by: GankYou


YC117/05/06 11:30 EVT Technical update




The very significant trendline extending all the way from the lows back in late 2010-YC112 has been providing support on multiple occasions - the b sub-wave of the Connecting X wave, it also terminated the A wave short. and on Earth-April 6th it has finally been broken, with the Double Zig-Zag Correction now being well underway - wave C is gaining momentum with each passing day.

The 50% retracement of the advance for the same extended time period can be found around the 4.33 ISK p/u mark. Wave C can now terminate anywhere from 1.382 to the 2.618 times the length of A price change.

A 1.618 value puts it at 4.54 ISK p/u.



A similar Correction can be seen in Pyerite, which lags behind in developments in Tritanium with almost half a Solar year. However, that does not signify that these two minerals won't catch-up on these fundamental changes - Pyerite may as well post a comparable formation structure, though perhaps very extended in scope of the price movement.

The fifty percent retracement of the impulsive move from late 2010-YC112 to Earth-February of 2013-YC114 can be found near the 9.35 ISK p/u mark, with 38.2% & 61.8% levels being 10.71 and 7.9 ISK p/u respectively.

The purple trendline runs off the lows of the aforementioned period, and will intersect the 61.8% retracement in the Earth-months of this Solar Summer. In the Northern Hemisphere of that planet, of course. Smile

The relationship between these two prime minerals can be likened to that of Zydrine & Megacyte, or a more Historical one - the AG and AU, formerly precious, metals found only beyond the Eve Gate/Wormhole.



The move has broken the trendline extending from the late 2013-YC115 lows, and is looking to test the one running off mid-YC113 levels, which is around 42.5 ISK p/u - this mineral will undoubtedly find bids along the level. and possibly medium-term support.

Mexallon is experiencing a Zig-Zag correction with wave C potentially terminating soon - Does not mean it can not develop into a broader one, following certain developments with regards to capital ship concept and their role in the coming new Era.
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#39 - 2015-05-08 01:06:26 UTC
Mex and Pyer look to have more room to fall.

Jita has 2365m units Mex on sell orders compared to only 1140m units on buy orders. Supply outstripping demand.

Pyer is more extreme (9241m sell, 1391 buy).

In both cases there are many large sell orders considerably under the median sell order too.

I am going to start prepatory work on a project that will involve me buying tens, maybe hundreds of millions of units of Mexallon, but not pulling the trigger and making that purchase until/unless the price falls into the mid 30s. Which I fully expect it to do. I do not believe that will provide all that much support either.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

Shiloh Templeton
Cheyenne HET Co
#40 - 2015-05-09 14:23:19 UTC
I noticed that IPH is showing a lot of profit on some ships right now. Is this a result of the inputs dropping in price faster than the products already built? Or is this a normal profit level for popular ships?


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