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CCP Rise newbie stats

First post
Author
Ito Eto
State War Academy
Caldari State
#201 - 2015-03-25 06:44:50 UTC
Steppa Musana wrote:
Kaarous Aldurald wrote:
Ito Eto wrote:

15 days seems a bit of a suspect sample point to me, sub duration is 30days, minimum.


It's half of what a free trial is now. They wanted to see what effect the initial interactions had on new players, seems fine to me.

It also seems like you're trying too hard to find something wrong, and fixating on the time period.

When people like James315 are posting articles about how their antics dont cause new players to quit, its important to fixate on how flawed it is to connect this data to that conclusion. Is James talking about 15 day old players? He's responding to his critics, the critics that say griefers makes players that can fly freighters, exhumers and Ravens quit. "It just goes to show 15 day old characters dont quit because of griefing" is a cover for the real intentions... defending griefing players in highsec that are older than 15 days.

Thats the real intellectual dishonesty here. Pretending this whole thing isnt a stealth, "lalalala wardeccing corps for 3 months and humiliating players on a troll blog doesnt cause them to quit lalalala"


I did gather from his rather adversarial method of address he was rather more interested in the form of his own words than any constructive or intelligent debate, I was just humoring the poor little mite. I would set him to ignore, but his tantrums are so entertaining.

Though it did eventually reveal more interesting input from people such as yourself and Scipio.

"Themepark" "Sandbox", these do not mean what you think they mean, EvE is as on rails as a freight train, and has as many attractions as Disneyland, but soundbites are easy, thinking is not.

Benny Ohu
Royal Amarr Institute
Amarr Empire
#202 - 2015-03-25 07:22:17 UTC
Steppa Musana wrote:
Good job, proving my point above. "There is a lack of evidence suggesting players killed in their first 15 days quit over it" in your mind suggests "highsec griefing does not cause players to quit". Are you religious by any chance?

please explain what you're insinuating by that question, npc corp poster steppa musana
Ito Eto
State War Academy
Caldari State
#203 - 2015-03-25 07:38:00 UTC
Possibly that incorrect inference is a feature of religious dogmas.

"Themepark" "Sandbox", these do not mean what you think they mean, EvE is as on rails as a freight train, and has as many attractions as Disneyland, but soundbites are easy, thinking is not.

Malcanis
Vanishing Point.
The Initiative.
#204 - 2015-03-25 08:02:05 UTC
Kaarous Aldurald wrote:
Syn Shi wrote:
Lifelongnoob wrote:
how many "newbie" accounts are actually new alt accounts for more experienced players.. hence why many dont die so easily



As you can tell by the responses above the Rise groupies only have one thought....and that is what Rise tells them.


Yeah, I certainly haven't been exceedingly critical of him a whole bunch of other times.

But then there's you, who reject facts because they don't fit your narrative. That is a level of intellectual dishonesty that is rare to find in humans.


Um... What?

"Just remember later that I warned against any change to jump ranges or fatigue. You earned whats coming."

Grath Telkin, 11.10.2016

Aralyn Cormallen
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#205 - 2015-03-25 08:05:58 UTC  |  Edited by: Aralyn Cormallen
Jenshae Chiroptera wrote:
Serene Repose wrote:
Jenn aSide wrote:
You can stay in denial all you like...
When are you going to prove that load of bilge you keep typing?
+1

Essentially, CCP Rise gets up on stage and says, "Look at these poorly constructed statistics."

The problem being that there are so many obvious holes in it, before the data was collected, that we have to wonder what else is going on in the offices.


When faced with a CCP employee, standing up on stage and presenting facts that argue towards a conclusion directly relating to customer retention, and therefore the success and profitability of the company, an employee who will have access to other facts, and therefore knows for sure whether the fact he is stating is an anomoly or representative of the general trend, I am going to personally go with the non-crazy option, and assume that the employee is not going to deliberately endanger his companies, and therefore his own, livelihood, in order that someone, somewhere, can win an arguement on the internet.

I get that people get tunnel visioned, and naturally distrust "facts" that stand against their own beliefs, but come on people, CCP are about the bottom line, and at the end of the day being able to make a profit and pay their staff, not about winning internet points in forum arguements. On a corporate level (and in fact, any level) that **** does not matter. If the evidence said otherwise, there would be absolutely zero sane reason to "misrepresent" the facts.

But I guess some people just like conspiracy theories
Black Pedro
Mine.
#206 - 2015-03-25 09:57:24 UTC
Steppa Musana wrote:
When people like James315 are posting articles about how their antics dont cause new players to quit, its important to fixate on how flawed it is to connect this data to that conclusion. Is James talking about 15 day old players? He's responding to his critics, the critics that say griefers makes players that can fly freighters, exhumers and Ravens quit. "It just goes to show 15 day old characters dont quit because of griefing" is a cover for the real intentions... defending griefing players in highsec that are older than 15 days.

Thats the real intellectual dishonesty here. Pretending this whole thing isnt a stealth, "lalalala wardeccing corps for 3 months and humiliating people's mains on a troll blog doesnt cause them to quit lalalala"

I will not defend James 315 - he is more than capable do do that himself - but I will say that many here are quite happy to have this empirical data conclusively establishing that "griefing" of new players (<15 days) is not hurting player retention. For years, many have be saying that it is a major problem that new players are griefed out of the game, despite that fact that any ganker could tell you that this is not the case. Not only is ganking is so rare now (see: CCP Quant's presentation for real data on this) in general that you have to be incredibly unlucky to even run into a ganker, true new players are not at all an attractive target as they lack assets. Yet you had people coming here claiming that ganking was ruining Eve and new players need more safety to have a chance to get into the game.

CCP Rise has looked at the data and conclusively put the final nail into this complaint. Ganking does not hurt true new player retention - if anything it helps it by getting players to engage with the sandbox. That is not intellectually dishonest at all. CCP is very keen on having players stay in the game beyond the trial period, and ganking is not a negative factor for why players don't continue with the game.

Steppa Musana wrote:
Do you want to know why people think what they think about griefing? Experience. You join a corp, and you watch as player after player gets frustrated with the griefing and quits. You watch CODE troll some regular in local and he never logs on again. You know for a fact in your experience a dozen players have quit over this. Then you meet a new friend, and they tell you that they also know a dozen players that quit over it. And that they know people that also say they know a dozen people that have quit over it. Why dont you talk to highsec carebears and see for yourself. You wont find anyone whos been around for awhile who couldnt give you a list of players that either stated they quit over griefing, or never logged in again after a bad experience. The anecdotal evidence is plenty.
This argument is exactly why we need a rational examination of the data. Your anecdotes, even if true, do not come anywhere close to telling the whole story. CCP is trying to increase player retention (and ultimately profits), not make carebears stay with the game. James 315 himself may cause a dozen people to quit with his antics, but if he also causes two dozen to join/stay, then that is a net benefit for the game.

I will admit this data does not address that issue, but that is not what CCP Rise was most concerned about. Getting players "over the hump" and into the game is a different issue than whether six months down the road some carebear realizes that this is not the game they want to play for whatever reason. It is of much greater concern for the NPE that a potential long-term customer who could be a good fit for the type of game Eve is quits before they can even get into the game, than if some player realizes a competitive sandbox game is not for them after they learn how to play. The first can be fixed simply by changing the NPE, the second cannot be fixed without changing the very core of the game CCP is selling.

Eve is not a game for everyone. Making the NPE as accessible to new players to properly showcase the sandbox that New Eden is of paramount importance to get more new players into the game. CCP Rise has conclusively shown that ganking not only doesn't hurt, but actually helps get players into the game. This is just what the data says no matter what you or anyone else believes.

As for highsec carebears, they have to remember they are playing a game built on the idea of "griefing" by a bunch of "griefers". If they choose to quit when they run into their first bit of adversity and suffer a gank loss or a wardec, well then perhaps they are not just the type that enjoys competitive sandbox game play and I am not sure CCP can or should do anything to keep that sort of player. That however is an issue separate from the effect of ganking on the NPE.





Nevyn Auscent
Broke Sauce
#207 - 2015-03-25 10:32:08 UTC
Black Pedro wrote:

CCP Rise has looked at the data and conclusively put the final nail into this complaint. Ganking does not hurt true new player retention - if anything it helps it by getting players to engage with the sandbox. That is not intellectually dishonest at all. CCP is very keen on having players stay in the game beyond the trial period, and ganking is not a negative factor for why players don't continue with the game.

Actually the data says nothing of the sort. It presents some very bare bones statistics with no context for under 15 day accounts. We have no idea how many of those play 2 days, do 3 tutorial missions and never leave the newbie areas where ganking is illegal. We have no idea how many are spy accounts on a VPN so appear a totally new player while actually being a veteran. We have no idea about any of the surrounding controls on the data that would actually allow us to draw any conclusions at all from the data.
Ito Eto
State War Academy
Caldari State
#208 - 2015-03-25 11:02:22 UTC  |  Edited by: Ito Eto
It is probably unwise to conflate ganking and wardecs, their effects are very different, as is the scale of their application. Despite the superficial result of both activities resulting in waking up in your med clone. One causes short term discomfort, the other can be an effective ban on play for a week or more for smaller/social/newbro corps who have neither the agency or fiances to deal with the situation.

Imagine a game mechanic that each week rolls a dice for a 1 in 10 chance of banning your corp from logging in for a week or auto disbands the corp, I defy anyone to find fun or content in that.

Unfortunately the data seems rather narrowly focused on ganking with no mention of the cancelled account's wardec status. I am coming to agree with Nevyn Auscent that the data provided is rather useless in the context of retention. At best, a well meaning but flawed data study, at worst a distraction and PR exercise.

"Themepark" "Sandbox", these do not mean what you think they mean, EvE is as on rails as a freight train, and has as many attractions as Disneyland, but soundbites are easy, thinking is not.

Scipio Artelius
Weaponised Vegemite
Flying Dangerous
#209 - 2015-03-25 11:12:45 UTC  |  Edited by: Scipio Artelius
Ito Eto wrote:
Unfortunately the data seems rather narrowly focused on ganking with no mention of the cancelled account's wardec status. I am coming to agree with Nevyn Auscent that the data provided is rather useless in the context of retention. At best, a well meaning but flawed data study, at worst a distraction and PR exercise.

The issue of wardecs is included in the 13% that die legally.

Sibyyl's post summarises what CCP Rise said, if you haven't watched it.

That doesn't go to the value of us having access to more of the data CCP have. It would be great if they would analyse and release more of it to the community.

It can be hard to validate our own opinions without access to the resources CCP have to collect data on players. So it's natural that we form opinions on the basis of our own limited observations and then validate that against what others say and we tend to place more importance on statements that reinforce our existing views.

That particular presentation is limited, because it had a specific scope of interest to Rise. There is also other data presented elsewhere and in total it's building up a fairly consistent picture, but still fairly narrow at this point.
Ito Eto
State War Academy
Caldari State
#210 - 2015-03-25 11:31:23 UTC  |  Edited by: Ito Eto
Consider wardecs more like Afk cloakies, it is not the action itself that harms, it is the threat of action. Only one member of NewBro Corp needs to die to a WT, cry in corpchat and rage quit to spook his corpies.

Yes in real terms maybe 13% die legally (though I am unsure which if any, other means of legal death are included in that 13%). The death of that 13% reaches out and touches another X% of newbros.

Now maybe some of the corp man up, maybe some of them log out for the storm, some of them simply do not bother coming back. Anecdotal as it is, in my experience, if this is repeated, the corp eventually dies or players leave.

"Themepark" "Sandbox", these do not mean what you think they mean, EvE is as on rails as a freight train, and has as many attractions as Disneyland, but soundbites are easy, thinking is not.

Black Pedro
Mine.
#211 - 2015-03-25 11:53:30 UTC
Nevyn Auscent wrote:
Black Pedro wrote:

CCP Rise has looked at the data and conclusively put the final nail into this complaint. Ganking does not hurt true new player retention - if anything it helps it by getting players to engage with the sandbox. That is not intellectually dishonest at all. CCP is very keen on having players stay in the game beyond the trial period, and ganking is not a negative factor for why players don't continue with the game.

Actually the data says nothing of the sort. It presents some very bare bones statistics with no context for under 15 day accounts. We have no idea how many of those play 2 days, do 3 tutorial missions and never leave the newbie areas where ganking is illegal. We have no idea how many are spy accounts on a VPN so appear a totally new player while actually being a veteran. We have no idea about any of the surrounding controls on the data that would actually allow us to draw any conclusions at all from the data.

We actually have no access to any of the data at all. But CCP Rise and his team do and they have looked thoroughly at this data to come up with the conclusion that he presented at Fanfest. They have access to this data you ask for and much, much more and it is very much in their interest to go through it carefully before making a public presentation of their conclusions or implementing any game changes.

You are either calling CCP Rise and his team incompetent, or liars. He said, without any ambiguity, that suicide ganking has no negative effect on new player retention, rather that it actually increased it. If you want to hand-wave invented explanations and caveats based on no actual data of your own you can of course, but don't expect too many of the rational among us to get on board with your conspiracy theories.
Jenn aSide
Soul Machines
The Initiative.
#212 - 2015-03-25 12:47:42 UTC
Aralyn Cormallen wrote:


I get that people get tunnel visioned, and naturally distrust "facts" that stand against their own beliefs, but come on people, CCP are about the bottom line, and at the end of the day being able to make a profit and pay their staff, not about winning internet points in forum arguements.


While true, all of it will continue to fall on deaf ears. We aren't arguing facts (well, half of us are lol), we're arguing worldviews, and worldviews never change because they come from a pretty deep place in people.The people discounting completely what Rise has said are people who need to believe in victimization, and that such victimization is real enough to push people out of this game.. Without that vicimtization, without the 'poor new player beset upon by the claws of griefer injustice that cannot survive without the slefless advocacy of the GDFPJ (General Discussion forum posters for Justice), what would they believe in?

The hypocrisy of the matter is if what Rise said was slanted in the other direction (ie "we don't know for exact sure, but it looks like ganking new players pushes people out of the game and is bad") these exact same skeptics would instead don robes of purity and proclaim their enduring Loyalty to the Royal and Holy House of Rise, hallowed be thine neckbearded face lol (Just kidding Rise, love the beard bro, don't ever change Twisted).

The real truth is that Rise's information points to the fact that it isn't victimization that leads to losing people who try the game, it's other factors, like perhaps too much safety. It also indicates that new players do't need the help of these self appointed advocates.
Rise's information also suggests that our ganking bros are too nice and need to get on the ball, because if they don't gank more noobs it means they don't love EVE enough to want people to keep playing.

Now (for our justice seeking skeptic bros) stick that in your justice pipe and smoke it.
Jenshae Chiroptera
#213 - 2015-03-25 13:55:48 UTC
Scipio Artelius wrote:
One argument often thrown around in the community is that new players don't stay in the game because they are griefed out of it..
One of those figures that people are latching onto is the "legal kills" and one scenarios is where newbies are spammed duel requests.

*Splat*

Then they realise how long they are going to be so feeble and decide it isn't worth dying all the time.
There are definitely break points in EVE.

The 15 days one with trial accounts if full of a lot of other reasons than ganking. As everyone in this thread has repeatedly said.

CCP - Building ant hills and magnifying glasses for fat kids

Not even once

EVE is becoming shallow and puerile; it will satisfy neither the veteran nor the "WoW" type crowd in the transition.

Scipio Artelius
Weaponised Vegemite
Flying Dangerous
#214 - 2015-03-25 14:03:47 UTC
Jenshae Chiroptera wrote:
One of those figures that people are latching onto is the "legal kills" and one scenarios is where newbies are spammed duel requests.

*Splat*

Then they realise how long they are going to be so feeble and decide it isn't worth dying all the time.
There are definitely break points in EVE.

The 15 days one with trial accounts if full of a lot of other reasons than ganking. As everyone in this thread has repeatedly said.

Not saying you are wrong as I don't have any data to know whether that is true, but are you saying that a high percentage of new players are dueled out of the game in their first 15 days?

We know from CCP's data that 50% of players leave in the first month.

Are you suggesting that this is because they a dueled and killed (within that 13% of losses) and therefore leave the game, when CCP have said that people in that group have a higher rate of retention than people who don't die in pvp?

Am I understanding that correctly?

Seems like clutching at straws, but that's just speculation on my part. I can't deny it's a possibility, just doesn't seem logical based on what has been said by CCP.

So what are you basing that on?
Jenn aSide
Soul Machines
The Initiative.
#215 - 2015-03-25 14:09:02 UTC
Steppa Musana wrote:


Do you want to know why people think what they think about griefing? Experience. You join a corp, and you watch as player after player gets frustrated with the griefing and quits. You watch CODE troll some regular in local and he never logs on again. You know for a fact in your experience a dozen players have quit over this. Then you meet a new friend, and they tell you that they also know a dozen players that quit over it. And that they know people that also say they know a dozen people that have quit over it. Why dont you talk to highsec carebears and see for yourself. You wont find anyone whos been around for awhile who couldnt give you a list of players that either stated they quit over griefing, or never logged in again after a bad experience. The anecdotal evidence is plenty.


This is the only true thing I've ever seen you post, and as I suspected, the reason for that is that you know (deep down) that it disproves what you want (need really) to believe.

Anecdotal evidence isn't evidence. It's 'feelings' tainted by bias. You talk about all the people you know 'greifed out of the game' but don't talk about the much higher number of people you must have encountered in the same period of time who got 'grief' and stayed. and YOU yourself are still here so obviously it must not be that bad.

The part about why don't I talk to high sec carebears is funny. I'll bet any amount of isk you like that i've run more missions and been in more incursion fleets and have higher standings to more npc corps than any character you own. I'm IN high sec doing pve , most of the time at the same time I'm in null, because of this wonderful invention called ALTS (it's the newest thing, like 8 track tapes). I've probably trained more mission runners than you've ever met son.

The real fact here is that people aren't near as squishy and victimish as you want them to be. Most of us who come into the game and stay here take out lumps and deal with the PVPrs and keep on moving. I've known very many people like you (my very 1st corp in the game, a mission running group, had a few) and they real truth of the matter is that you all are several times worse for keeping players in EVE than the worst ganker or scammer, because all you have to offer new players is fear.
Jenn aSide
Soul Machines
The Initiative.
#216 - 2015-03-25 14:21:08 UTC  |  Edited by: Jenn aSide
Scipio Artelius wrote:


So what are you basing that on?


You're just way too nice :) But as to the above question, the answer is usually "nothing of importance".

That's another one of those ironies, it's the "Evidence Requirement Imbalance" that is present in most discussions between people. In other words, people don't need a lot of (or ANY) evidence to form an opinion about something, but if you challenge that opinion they require Supreme Court level documentation and even then they won't change their opinion lol (the opinion tends to gets stronger in the face of counter evidence).

So here you have a situation where people say "I know people who were griefed out of the game!" and expanding that to mean that gankers run new players away, then you have a Developer with miles and miles more information saying "for the 10s of thousands of characters we examined, there is no proof of that", and the end result is this thread lol.

When I talk about certain game imbalances some of the exact same people have told me that "well, CCP knows best". It seems that for some people, CCP knowing best is mighty conditional upon whether CCP agrees with them or not Cool
Jenshae Chiroptera
#217 - 2015-03-25 14:44:16 UTC
Scipio Artelius wrote:
... are you saying that a high percentage of new players are dueled out of the game in their first 15 days?
No, I am pointing to another hole in CCP Rise's stats.

Basically, he is saying "There is 365 days in a year and we go around the sun" okay .... and ....?

What happens in this 365 days?
Are there seasons?
What is the pattern over a decade?
Is there a moon going around the Earth?
Is there any variance such as a leap year?

We are getting a bottom line from a weak premise without any of the working out or break downs of those stats. It should not have even been presented.

CCP - Building ant hills and magnifying glasses for fat kids

Not even once

EVE is becoming shallow and puerile; it will satisfy neither the veteran nor the "WoW" type crowd in the transition.

Scipio Artelius
Weaponised Vegemite
Flying Dangerous
#218 - 2015-03-25 14:57:13 UTC
Jenshae Chiroptera wrote:
Scipio Artelius wrote:
... are you saying that a high percentage of new players are dueled out of the game in their first 15 days?
No, I am pointing to another hole in CCP Rise's stats.

Basically, he is saying "There is 365 days in a year and we go around the sun" okay .... and ....?

What happens in this 365 days?
Are there seasons?
What is the pattern over a decade?
Is there a moon going around the Earth?
Is there any variance such as a leap year?

We are getting a bottom line from a weak premise without any of the working out or break downs of those stats. It should not have even been presented.

It's almost 2am and I am guessing that my comprehension skills have deserted me, because that makes no sense to me.

So far I haven't even seen 1 hole in Rise's stats for what he actually used them for, not what many people seem to imagine they can be used for.

But, that post seems like a sign I need to go to bed. I'm normally ok with comprehension. Now I'm not so sure.
Sibyyl
Garoun Investment Bank
Gallente Federation
#219 - 2015-03-25 15:07:42 UTC

Jenshae Chiroptera wrote:
Scipio Artelius wrote:
One argument often thrown around in the community is that new players don't stay in the game because they are griefed out of it..
One of those figures that people are latching onto is the "legal kills" and one scenarios is where newbies are spammed duel requests.

*Splat*

Then they realise how long they are going to be so feeble and decide it isn't worth dying all the time.
There are definitely break points in EVE.

The 15 days one with trial accounts if full of a lot of other reasons than ganking. As everyone in this thread has repeatedly said.


New people who PVP are more likely to stay in the game than people who don't PVP. People involved in non-consensual PVP are even more likely to stay in the game.

Which part of that did you not understand?

Joffy Aulx-Gao for CSM. Fix links and OGB. Ban stabs from plexes. Fulfill karmic justice.

Aralyn Cormallen
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#220 - 2015-03-25 15:18:29 UTC
Jenshae Chiroptera wrote:

We are getting a bottom line of a premise that I do not agree with, without any the working out or break downs for me to pick holes in. Things that disagree with me should not be presented.


Fixed your meaning there.