Market Discussions

I Speculate/guess based on the dev blog 1, that particular items will be consolidated/removed with others. some items cost 5k, will be consolidated with items worth 2m each for instance.

The idea is, stock up a reasonable amount of cheap modules now, wait for when they make the patch change, all items regardless of outcome become 'useful', then do a procurer on them and set and forget at a price point.

I speculate further than these items may even level the costs out among the named modules in some cases, where noobs buy compact, and vets buy ample.

This is a GO LONG INVESTMENT not a quick buck. the video was from may 2014, the first module change happened some 6 months later.

Firstly, the reference materiall, to make it easier to find the extracts, after clicking on the link: do CTRL+ F and paste in a keyword.

Dev blog 1
Youtube video (skipped to the module section)

Firstly, I ask you to follow the first link, and read it, there are a few e.g. of what they have changed already. if you do not wish to click the link this is what CCP states about item consolidation:



so any modules being removed, are simply merged with the other item and renamed, so u don;t lose anything by stocking.

Now click on the video (relax it skips to the relevant part), he states, "we want to make sure, like the ships that we give you good choices for the items" which makes sense as most ships now have a role. he also says there will be fewer meta levels for some items. "same power level, in different specializations"

So wtf jerry who cares, well here comes the fun part:

All the slides, and such and all the changes to weapon systems have been to even out the "power level" but make some for instance cap use, CPU usage etc.

So you need to find items that you know will have less meta levels, using the previous module tiericide as the litmus test, lets take a look at the missile launcher bracket.

firstly, the litmus test: (LML)



4 modules become 2.

Both have same Rate of fire, which is basically DPS for missile launchers. The only variables they can change for Missile launchers to effect DPS is rate of fire, to which they have specifically said, they are making them the same power level. lets look at what CCP says about the naming convention:

The “named module” names that will be used in our Oceanus changes are:



of the above, the only that apply to Missile launcher groups is 2, which i have a Star next to.

So again, i speculate the following for this missile launcher module group:

*That using the above litmus test, all the launcher groups will follow the same pattern. (4 >>> 2)
*That CCP has shown graphs showing they want the named modules to have the same power level (see LML)
*That they won't change powergrid requirements, rather CPU for where they mention "fitting" (aka branching compact to CPU & powergrid specializations)

Missile launcher are the obvious ones, but this effects all modules, im sure CCP end game is to reduce the amount of entries in the database.

I began stocking a reasonable amount of items about 2 weeks ago in 3 Hubs (Jita, amarr & Dodi) my spend is about 500m across the galaxy for these items, and i have the amount i need now.

TL:DR do a bit of reading, buy cheap modules (10m worth is like 10000 of some items.) wait till they change them, then slowly sell them off.

The fun part for me is, will people believe me? or dismiss me as a troll, either way, IDC, if ppl beleive me there may be a small spike in prices, if they spike, just wait a month or 2 and buy them then, this is a long long one, who knows what CCP will change next!

Edit: updated title to include doomsday preppers, eve search the thread if you dont beleive me :p

This is why I criticised investing in meta-4 items as a really bad idea a few weeks ago. It is also the reason I sold off my meta-4 stocks months ago and invested heavily in low meta 1 & 2 items and before the recent drift upwards.

What surprised me, was not the criticism, so much as the fact my cornering apparently went unnoticed or commented on.


Welcome to the club Jerry. :)

The supply of these items is huge. Most of these items is reprocessed now... or left in space. Demand would have to be big to make them worth more than reprocessed value. Too many ppl runs missions etc.

Maybe some high demand weapons might be worth buying. But I wouldnt buy anything for more than reprocessed value.

Yeah it seems m1 LML was a very good opportunity. I wonder if the drop rates changed? So if drop rates werent merged the supply is lower than I assumed.

Damn, I guess I will buy some.

I have been watching meta 4 markets, and there has been no visible panic selling of the meta 4 modules that are widely used at least, and as such I have seen no reason to panic sell the small amount I hold now. I certainly would not be buying meta 4 modules that are low demand, however, and I expect to lose ISK on the ones of those modules I am holding for alliance logistical reasons.

I believe the opportunities for profit from tiericide are not to be found primarily in buying today's high supply, low demand items and selling them slowly after they become high supply, medium demand. I am watching like a hawk any changes announced to low supply, low demand items that might turn them into low supply, medium demand items.

Why? Sabriz' logic is good. There is no immediate threat to meta 4 modules although I certainly wouldn't be buying them up right now. The best opportunities will definitely be in the low supply items which get buffed. I do think there is also good opportunity in the higher volume items, albeit not as great.

re-read his post.

"I believe the opportunities for profit from tiericde are not to be found from high supply.... low demand items."

"and selling them slowly after they become medium demand, high supply"

OP is regards to buying modules that are to be consolidated. nothing to do with the current meta level / supply of any items.

remember after the tiericide hits, the market is wiped and the ones with the stock set the prices, the current low demand, is due to bad itemization, nothing more, shouldn't even be a factor in considering what to buy.

things to look for are what fits into the naming convention, i.e. lowest CPU use, lowest cap use, etc. nothing more.

tl:Dr current demand is irrelevant.

The supply will still be extremely high.

Let's assume the meta 2 gravimetric ECCM becomes very good after the tiericide, so good that most people that want to fit a gravimetric ECCM module gravitate to it over the tech 2 alternative. Best case scenario for this module.

There will still be dozens of this module in the hangar of every inefficient mission runner, and if they spike at all in price, these people will sell. There will also be tens of thousands in the hangars of a few speculators. And the demand for such a niche item will still be narrow.

Meantime a small number of these modules will sell in a price war, and mission runners will keep getting more and more and more and more of them in. The mission runners will probably more than meet demand alone on a niche item like this.

If the next patch made Charred Micro Circuit (a T1 salvage item that is not a limiting reagant for any widely used rig) popular, its price would remain suppressed for a very, very long time due to people like me having literally thousands of them in their hangars. (I have 3746 of that in Dodi 9-20 from my carebear days). They won't go up noticeably until that supply is exhausted, which may be 5+ years.




TLDR: Post-tiericide supply will be high on any module that becomes good, because there are so damn many of them in circulation right now. High supply, medium demand = not the world's highest prices.

you still don't get it, im not going to get into an argument with about it. ill stick to my original "you have no idea"

E: well maybe one more, seeing as you are still not seeing it.

Feel the burn.

On the example of webs, the lower level webs are 50% webs, and the upper level ones are 60% webs. So I wonder whether webs will all get dropped to 50% or all webs upped to 60%.

I seem to recall that CCP stated metas 2 and 4 will be merged, and metas 3 and 1 will be merged. But looking back at the part 2 devblog, it seems this will not always be the case for every item type. In this case, I would say Jerry is probably right.

imo, people will always want a reduced fitting module. Some bonus is better than none, after all.