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Long-term Investments

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Sven Viko VIkolander
In space we are briefly free
#1 - 2014-07-15 20:41:15 UTC  |  Edited by: Sven Viko VIkolander
I do a fair bit of market trading. However, I don't have extra time for updating orders, so I am going to start rolling profit into long-term investments into the market...and maybe something other than just buying PLEX! I am doing an experiment on my blog which involves pretending to invest 100b isk and seeing what choices play out well over the next few months: http://evelostfound.blogspot.com/2014/07/investing-100-billion-isk-experiment.html

But I am wondering in general, for those of you who have made these sorts of long term investments, including things like speculation for market trends (e.g. in expectation of future releases), what sort of tips would you offer? Is this type of trading not worth the risk? Should one simply stick to PLEX? Any feedback would be much appreciated!
Qmamoto Kansuke
Killing with pink power
Penguins with lasorz
#2 - 2014-07-16 08:30:44 UTC
Sven Viko VIkolander wrote:
I do a fair bit of market trading. However, I don't have extra time for updating orders, so I am going to start rolling profit into long-term investments into the market...and maybe something other than just buying PLEX! I am doing an experiment on my blog which involves pretending to invest 100b isk and seeing what choices play out well over the next few months: http://evelostfound.blogspot.com/2014/07/investing-100-billion-isk-experiment.html

But I am wondering in general, for those of you who have made these sorts of long term investments, including things like speculation for market trends (e.g. in expectation of future releases), what sort of tips would you offer? Is this type of trading not worth the risk? Should one simply stick to PLEX? Any feedback would be much appreciated!


You need to spread out your investment a bit you're investing too much into ships.If you want to achieve moderate success you need to invest in as much as different types of items possible that way you'll never lose too much if 1 type of items are selling bad.
Greedy Mutha
Hedion University
Amarr Empire
#3 - 2014-07-16 10:32:32 UTC
I'm a nobody but I'd have to agree. Ships pricing are always subject to change from minerals, blueprints and research, and demand. Diversity is the key to long term investments, not all are guaranteed to yield positive results. Not even PLEX.
Nihi Li'aldoko
The Mucking Fuppets
#4 - 2014-07-16 13:24:08 UTC
I'll definitely watch this. I could never pretend to invest isk because what if you hit the jackpot and you doubled your isk somehow, it would make me sick to my stomach Big smile
Elizabeth Norn
Nornir Research
Nornir Empire
#5 - 2014-07-16 14:12:52 UTC  |  Edited by: Elizabeth Norn
Sorry if this is answered in your blog, I'll read it on the bus tomorrow, but is this mostly a hypothetical exercise, or will you eventually be rolling 100b into this?

Qmamoto Kansuke wrote:

You need to spread out your investment a bit you're investing too much into ships.If you want to achieve moderate success you need to invest in as much as different types of items possible that way you'll never lose too much if 1 type of items are selling bad.


This is definitely true and I agree with it, but I feel a bit naughty at the same time because of how few items the majority of my ISK is invested in.

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Sven Viko VIkolander
In space we are briefly free
#6 - 2014-07-16 20:00:11 UTC
Elizabeth Norn wrote:
Sorry if this is answered in your blog, I'll read it on the bus tomorrow, but is this mostly a hypothetical exercise, or will you eventually be rolling 100b into this?

Qmamoto Kansuke wrote:

You need to spread out your investment a bit you're investing too much into ships.If you want to achieve moderate success you need to invest in as much as different types of items possible that way you'll never lose too much if 1 type of items are selling bad.


This is definitely true and I agree with it, but I feel a bit naughty at the same time because of how few items the majority of my ISK is invested in.


Thanks for the responses! First, yes, I definitely feel the need to spread out investments more. I started with items that A. I am familiar with, and B. items I know I could either use or sell locally. When I do the real thing I hope to have at least twice the amount of items.

For the question though, yes I will eventually be doing the real thing, though it won't be all at once like this little experiment was.
Ocih
Space Mermaids
#7 - 2014-07-17 19:03:19 UTC
For me the biggest aspect of long term investment is the development cycle. It's part of the game and if you look at it from a technology and production perspective, the development cycle acts like a trending force in a real world economy. It does the same in EVE economy.

In many cases CCP try to avoid wealth shifting when they introduce new things or new versions of things by doing ground up development but every so often they skip that and turn junk in to treasure and treasure in to junk. If you watch the development cycle and figure out what hasn't been touched in a very long time, buy it up and save it for a that potential day you can and people have turned over profit in the thousands of percent.

It's not as easy as it used to be with so much in EVE. The possible development cycles are very small amounts of content and are hit and miss in terms of taking off but when they are hit, they are usually big, lottery hits. There are a lot of things in EVE that are painfully hard to get and painfully useless. When CCP decide to give them a use, over stock burns and you have gathered a stock of them you suddenly become wealthy.

That's part of what people mean when they say diversity in assets. Junk today, gold tomorrow.
HeXxploiT
Doomheim
#8 - 2014-07-21 16:21:40 UTC
A couple of months is not a long term investment.
Bayonnefrog
Blueprint Mania
#9 - 2014-07-21 17:22:30 UTC
Sven Viko VIkolander wrote:
I do a fair bit of market trading. However, I don't have extra time for updating orders, so I am going to start rolling profit into long-term investments into the market...and maybe something other than just buying PLEX! I am doing an experiment on my blog which involves pretending to invest 100b isk and seeing what choices play out well over the next few months: http://evelostfound.blogspot.com/2014/07/investing-100-billion-isk-experiment.html

But I am wondering in general, for those of you who have made these sorts of long term investments, including things like speculation for market trends (e.g. in expectation of future releases), what sort of tips would you offer? Is this type of trading not worth the risk? Should one simply stick to PLEX? Any feedback would be much appreciated!


No need for long-term speculation in Eve Online. You can make more than enough ISK by trading intra-regional arbitrage opportunities. The markets are inefficient enough where it's always possible. Just my opinion.
mynnna
State War Academy
Caldari State
#10 - 2014-07-21 18:38:23 UTC
Ocih wrote:
For me the biggest aspect of long term investment is the development cycle. It's part of the game and if you look at it from a technology and production perspective, the development cycle acts like a trending force in a real world economy. It does the same in EVE economy.

In many cases CCP try to avoid wealth shifting when they introduce new things or new versions of things by doing ground up development but every so often they skip that and turn junk in to treasure and treasure in to junk. If you watch the development cycle and figure out what hasn't been touched in a very long time, buy it up and save it for a that potential day you can and people have turned over profit in the thousands of percent.

Pretty much this. I built my fortune on patch speculation. The biggest downside to it of course is the long time between patches and that sometimes cashing out can be a lengthy process though.

Having to shift out back into other ways to make money as I sell off my last pre-csm investments though, NDAs make speculation rather hard...

Just blindly buying stuff that hasn't been touched in awhile is, however, a poor strategy. Do that and you may be sitting on garbage for a very long time. Informed investment is smarter. Thulium had been garbage since forever for example, but I didn't start investing in it until CCP introduced Technetium alchemy and indicated that it was just "phase one".

Quote:
It's not as easy as it used to be with so much in EVE. The possible development cycles are very small amounts of content and are hit and miss in terms of taking off but when they are hit, they are usually big, lottery hits. There are a lot of things in EVE that are painfully hard to get and painfully useless. When CCP decide to give them a use, over stock burns and you have gathered a stock of them you suddenly become wealthy.

That's part of what people mean when they say diversity in assets. Junk today, gold tomorrow.

I don't really think that the shorter cycle will impinge patch speculation as much as you think. If the average patch is smaller but we still get larger ones from time to time, many patches will be functionally similar to 1.x patches of the past and have nothing to speculate on.

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal
Sven Viko VIkolander
In space we are briefly free
#11 - 2014-08-03 20:54:28 UTC
Thanks again for the comments folk! I've done my first update on my investment experiment, the full details of which you can find here: http://evelostfound.blogspot.com/2014/08/investing-100-billion-isk-update-i.html

As it turns out, I did actually make some of these investments and turned a decent profit thus far (better than in my experiment's assumptions, since I did normal stuff like put up buy orders / sell via sell orders lol). But in my experimental confines, I've made 5.69b on modest assumptions thus far by selling off some stock. I didn't expect to sell anything at this point, but the market has gone a bit crazy since Crius and it mostly worked in my favor.

Let me know what you think about my progress thus far!

I'd also love to know if anyone else has tried an investment experiment like this, or, if they were to try, what they would do differently at this point.

Sven Viko VIkolander
In space we are briefly free
#12 - 2014-10-31 17:46:40 UTC
I made the second and close to last update to this project, with another 6+ billion isk in profits:
http://evelostfound.blogspot.com/2014/10/investing-100b-isk-update-ii.html
Any feedback would be welcome, particularly if anyone else has made investment since Crius and would like to share! Or, tell me what to invest in now, would be nice Big smile
Wu Jiaqiu
#13 - 2014-11-10 03:11:35 UTC
Genolution Implants, Leopard shuttles, Geckos.

Special edition items that can not be produced only gain in value. I am a Long Term Investor when I take long periods away from EVE. PLEX is one of the best places to store your ISK. They are EVE's equivalent to indexing the stock market. Since you are investing in the billions, I think the Genolution CA-3/4 is a great place as well. Keep your eye out for future special edition items. There are always more to come.