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Is it bad luck or is this the expected exploration nerf?

Author
Ikonia
Royal Amarr Expeditions
#1 - 2014-10-20 14:01:19 UTC
Since about 4 weeks our constellation is signature wise like dead. My whole corp is working on exploration and a good percentage of our monthly income was coming from exploration. I can tell you, this time is over.

We have a lot of data about signatures in our constellation, are in contact with almost all explorers (we are hosting a channel for our region) and we have gathered a lot of information from many outside of our corp sources. From what we have experiened and gathered:

Highsec systems in our constellation and neighbourhood:
minus 70% on appearance of data or relic
minus 75% on appearance of valuable combat sites (Watch, Vigil, Occupied Mining Colony)
minus 50 % on appearance of low value combat sites (drones, frig and destroyer sites)

Percent values are measured to the last 3 month (June, July, August, September) on a weekly base.

Loot found in those sites over the last 21 days is even worse. Most of the sites relic sites have lost over 50% in value, allthough prices are slowly raising. Data is not that bad, but prices are stagnant. Faction and plex stuff is like 75% lower, most of our income has broken away.

Lowsec systems in our constellation and neighbourhood:
minus 87% on appearance of data and relic. Most of the sites contain values that im used to in highsec and many many empty cans or carbon only.
High value combat sites have vanished almost completely (ded5/6). The data we gathered are devastating, i dont want to publish them, else you think im just a complainer who wants to make things look worse than they actually are.
Low value combat sites are also like minus 50%.

Loot found is not even worth the effort anymore. Mostly resist platings, seldom something of use like nano membranes.

Appearance of anomalies in highsec and lowsec seem to be slightly increased. We always had many anos, but lately it looks like we flooded with those sites. On the flipside the appearnace of faction spawns in them is lower than before and triggered expeditions of anomalies have almost vanished. While before our corp was on about 1:25 expeditions from anomalies its now more like 1:60 or worse.

Expeditions from signatures are now an ultra rare event. Mind that we have 7 full time explorers and several doing it beside their mining and production: 5 of 7 did not have a single expedition out of the anyway rare signatures in the last 3 weeks. And the few expeditions we found were not rewarding at all: tags and ammo.

Further signs hardening this data:
We are hosting a channel for explorers. Many left our constellation, the community in the channel is more or less dieing. As we are sharing information about signatures and Whs and pirate activity in this channel we are also receiving data about signatures. Most of the explorers in our channel have told about 50% or more of income is gone.

We changed from exploration activity to mostly mining. Not because it is bad or so, but to keep stable on income. And for the few signatures you dont need 7 explorers, 2 can handle it easily now. Many more miners appear now in our constellation, which lets assume, that we arent the only experiencing this phenomena.

Prices of many exploration things are going up. Prices of plex are embarrassing high.

We simply adapt to the data we have gathered now, or more precisely we have to adapt: We are changing to mining and are producing ships. Not very exciting, not very amusing.

How is it in your constellation, fellow explorers?

Have you made same or similar experience? Or do we just have an insane amount of bad luck or just a constellation based issue here? If it is just our constealltion we would change to somewhere else. But i dont want to shut down the complete infrastructure and build up elsewhere before having information about situation there.
Turelus
Utassi Security
The Curatores Veritatis Auxiliary
#2 - 2014-10-20 14:10:05 UTC
Well when a site closes it can respawn anywhere in the region.
It could be that your region has a small pocket which no one has been looking into and all the sites are bottling up there. It's very rare for CCP to make stealth nerfs from my time playing.

Very likely it's a string of bad luck.

Turelus CEO Utassi Security

Ikonia
Royal Amarr Expeditions
#3 - 2014-10-20 14:18:47 UTC  |  Edited by: Ikonia
Turelus wrote:
Well when a site closes it can respawn anywhere in the region.
It could be that your region has a small pocket which no one has been looking into and all the sites are bottling up there. It's very rare for CCP to make stealth nerfs from my time playing.

Very likely it's a string of bad luck.


We are aware of that and are covering over 35 systems in and around our constellation, mostly you can say we cover the full region, that is highsec and lowsec. We also frequently travel over WHs to nullsec or other lowsec areas. But as we dont have continously data collections from those systems it is impossible to say if you just have bad luck, or being in the footsteps of a fellow explorer that just made everything before you or it is the same like in our systems.

But as we dint find anything there like in our constellation im having doubts on the "string of bad luck" theory. Though i have to admit, still its possible.
Turelus
Utassi Security
The Curatores Veritatis Auxiliary
#4 - 2014-10-20 16:31:09 UTC
So focusing on just one region you're not getting any sites at all over the day all your members are active and searching?
By covering 35 systems in and around your constellation does this take into account every single system in the region? As I said it's entirely possible that some sites are just building up in systems untouched by any players, it's common with Empire areas with single HighSec systems or islands.

Turelus CEO Utassi Security

Petre en Thielles
Doomheim
#5 - 2014-10-20 17:04:14 UTC
Ikonia wrote:
Turelus wrote:
Well when a site closes it can respawn anywhere in the region.
It could be that your region has a small pocket which no one has been looking into and all the sites are bottling up there. It's very rare for CCP to make stealth nerfs from my time playing.

Very likely it's a string of bad luck.


We are aware of that and are covering over 35 systems in and around our constellation, mostly you can say we cover the full region, that is highsec and lowsec. We also frequently travel over WHs to nullsec or other lowsec areas. But as we dont have continously data collections from those systems it is impossible to say if you just have bad luck, or being in the footsteps of a fellow explorer that just made everything before you or it is the same like in our systems.

But as we dint find anything there like in our constellation im having doubts on the "string of bad luck" theory. Though i have to admit, still its possible.


Are you sure someone on another timezone isn't just sneaking in and running them?
Ikonia
Royal Amarr Expeditions
#6 - 2014-10-20 17:11:06 UTC
Turelus wrote:
So focusing on just one region you're not getting any sites at all over the day all your members are active and searching?
By covering 35 systems in and around your constellation does this take into account every single system in the region? As I said it's entirely possible that some sites are just building up in systems untouched by any players, it's common with Empire areas with single HighSec systems or islands.


A good question. When in our channel are like 20 explorers running sigs and messaging what is where, still the possibility remains that one system is simply overseen. But as our channel are by far not all explorers in our region but maybe like 30% of them, also counting in the "roamers" just bypassing or entering our region over WHs i dont believe it is possible that we continually oversee permanently the one island system in which then 10+ sigs are - over a time of more than 4 weeks. I can exclude that.

We are very familiar with our neighbourhood, so far that we can often enough predict to which part of nullsec the next appearing WHs will aim and when the window to this part of nullsec will close again. We also found those islands relatively quick in the past and know those special systems. But to forget or oversee a certain island system is more probable when u dont know exactly the abouts in the constellation, not when you are there daily and all the time. That is why i would exclude it inside our region. I would love to receive information about outside so that we can differ if its just our neighbourhood or a general situation.

More precisely some infos that we can plan accordingly - change to a new constellation/region or simply adapt our sources of income for us :) I dont care if we explore, mine, produce, research or run missions, but it would be nice to know if its just us, or others having same issues.
Ikonia
Royal Amarr Expeditions
#7 - 2014-10-20 17:18:05 UTC
Petre en Thielles wrote:
Ikonia wrote:
Turelus wrote:
Well when a site closes it can respawn anywhere in the region.
It could be that your region has a small pocket which no one has been looking into and all the sites are bottling up there. It's very rare for CCP to make stealth nerfs from my time playing.

Very likely it's a string of bad luck.


We are aware of that and are covering over 35 systems in and around our constellation, mostly you can say we cover the full region, that is highsec and lowsec. We also frequently travel over WHs to nullsec or other lowsec areas. But as we dont have continously data collections from those systems it is impossible to say if you just have bad luck, or being in the footsteps of a fellow explorer that just made everything before you or it is the same like in our systems.

But as we dint find anything there like in our constellation im having doubts on the "string of bad luck" theory. Though i have to admit, still its possible.


Are you sure someone on another timezone isn't just sneaking in and running them?


We considered that, too. But as our members are spread from russia over germany to usa and canada, also counting in those in our hosted channel i tend to say it is a windows of like 2 hours we dont cover completely. And 2 hours is too few for all the systems involved. It is possible to maybe fly in and scan. But assuming that those also have to clear the sites would afford a corp that couldnt have been undetected for such a long time. Also the sites usually respawn pretty quick, so we should have gotten at least one of the following respawns. In fact we considered this possibility for now like 3 weeks, but it slowly creeps up our minds, that this cant be the case all the time, which lead me to ask here.
Khazir
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#8 - 2014-10-23 11:19:18 UTC  |  Edited by: Khazir
I run 2 routes with 2 different chars and I too are finding pretty much the same as you report. I run in Minny space. Saying that also noticed activity has increased and a lot more explorers seem to be about. Possibly moving regions due to same findings...
Ikonia
Royal Amarr Expeditions
#9 - 2014-10-23 11:29:27 UTC
Khazir wrote:
I run 2 routes with 2 different chars and I too are finding pretty much the same as you report. I run in Minny space (guesing you do too with the occ mining listed). Saying that also noticed activity has increased and a lot more explorers seem to be about. Possibly moving regions due to same findings...


Almost correct - we are in the border region to minmatar space in Ammatar Mandate.

Activity will be sinking again. Saw already a lot of them leaving yesterday and the impact to exploration was also quite seeable in bay. Still fewer spawns but a better day on profit compared to the last 3 weeks. From what our recon says we hear out the tensions in the aggressors war party lead to some of their members leave the party and so it will just a mater of time until they all are gone to somewhere else.

Data gathered from yesterday: number of spawns - same but loot was a bit better.

Let's see how it turns out.
Khazir
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#10 - 2014-10-23 11:44:34 UTC
Haha I looked at ur corp name shortly after hence why i deleted it ! Oops
Heres hoping today continues like yesterday then with more spawns. Is your channel open to public? if so pm me the name ingame and ill swing by :)

Fly safe o7
Tin Cup
Furball Critter Corp
#11 - 2014-10-25 00:21:30 UTC
This can't be intented...I was roaming in about 50 Systems from 0.9-0.5 in Gallente, Minmatar and Amarr Space, and all i found was WHs and some comabt sites, not a single data or relic. This is no fun at all, justa waste of time. The Systems were med to low populated. Will try in 0.0 eventually...

fix it CCP
Ikonia
Royal Amarr Expeditions
#12 - 2014-10-25 14:18:48 UTC
In our region exploration is like dead. We have a many Wormholes appearing and being closed, like 126 in the last 3 days. Compared to found combat sites - 27 in 30 systems over 3 days by 12 explorers im sure it is a simple unannounced nerf or the infantile algorithm which is responsible for spawn and is completely false configured.

I dont know if it is intentional or not, and seriously i dont care. Many of my corp arent coming online anymore, our community is almost breaking apart and we have about nothing to do at all but mining and production. We have been watching 30 systems over the last days and income from exploration is not even covering ammo costs anymore.

As many friends are leaving im also considering a break or leave. Please dont understand this is as ingame complaining or so. It is just that im playing this game, cause it was fun and entertaining, something that is valuable enough to pay money for. Right now it is just boring, and i dont see any sense to see the same WHs pop up, being closed and reappear in a distance of 5 jumps leading to somehwere else where you can find only WHs. For that im not going pay anymore, and even less now that our community is almost dead. We were 34 in channel some time ago, now we are 7-10, most left region or dont come online at all anymore.

Maybe send me an email if things change. Fly safe and have fun.

Darwin Starling
Implacable Industries
#13 - 2014-10-25 16:36:56 UTC
I've noticed far fewer Data & Relic sites recently, but that's just my anecdotal experience, I haven't been systematic about this. Could it be that the spawn rate & loot drop will be fixed in after the Phoebe release? Just saying, a little patience may be warranted before quitting the game.
FT Diomedes
The Graduates
#14 - 2014-10-26 16:59:49 UTC
It's probably bad luck, but it is also likely that someone is cheating (running sites without reporting them) or not part of your little cartel. When I am actively exploring an area, I can generally chew through sites so fast that it makes it appear there is nothing out there for anyone else.

CCP should add more NPC 0.0 space to open it up and liven things up: the Stepping Stones project.

Ikonia
Royal Amarr Expeditions
#15 - 2014-10-28 15:30:20 UTC
A little update.

We have been shutting down most exploration over the weekend and just kept mapping and and bookmarking the sigs while doing other stuff.

We had most frigsize and low value sigs of combat over the most time being untouched and living for so long that they sometimes despawned while only one of us was in system and nobody else. The only sigs that had a lof disappearing and respawning were wormholes, and only when they were to WHspace, the ones leading directly to null, low and highsecs were up for mostly like 14 hours.

Without us doing anything the regions sigs were more or less stagnant. Even vigils and watchs lived often enough over more than 4 hours, and all less value sites were simply left untouched. So much about "bad luck".

Lets go mining and produce ships, still the only stable and good rewarding activity - but boring. Even the pirates in our region are bored to death as very few are even looking in the lowsecs. Amusing was the trial on monday to do some relics and data in lowsec. we found like 10 sigs and the best of them was 5 cans of which 4 empty and 1 had 1 carbon and 2 contaminated nanite compounds. Overall not bad, 3,000 ISK value. so just like 300 more of that and we can make a 1 million ISK when we sell the carbon also.

Average value of sigs was like 500K to 800K in all sigs. Thats lowsec. Hows nullsec?

nameless forum alt
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
#16 - 2014-10-28 16:17:26 UTC
You might want to try and move to a different area, i'm doing exploration in guristas high/low sec and i have not experienced any change in income.
Leoric Firesword
Imperial Shipment
Amarr Empire
#17 - 2014-10-30 13:44:02 UTC  |  Edited by: Leoric Firesword
you've dried up your area, you either need to leave home to find those sites, or wait for someone else to go out and run those sites and hope they come back to you.

I can tell you I'm having no issues with the number of sites I can run and the loot I get in them. However I will sometimes do 20-30 jumps a night running through systems, scanning, doing sites and moving on.

edit: also, it sounds as if someone is doing those sites before you guys are if you're seeing empty cans/carbon. Either find out who it is and forcibly remove them or move.
Ikonia
Royal Amarr Expeditions
#18 - 2014-10-31 11:08:56 UTC  |  Edited by: Ikonia
Leoric Firesword wrote:
you've dried up your area, you either need to leave home to find those sites, or wait for someone else to go out and run those sites and hope they come back to you.

I can tell you I'm having no issues with the number of sites I can run and the loot I get in them. However I will sometimes do 20-30 jumps a night running through systems, scanning, doing sites and moving on.

edit: also, it sounds as if someone is doing those sites before you guys are if you're seeing empty cans/carbon. Either find out who it is and forcibly remove them or move.


20-30 jumps is almost about 10% of what my corp does when activity is low. In meanwhile it is obvious that it is definitely a super heavy nerf that is sold back to us as readjustment on 4th of november by increasing some stuff in data sites.

We are already adapting to it as of exploration is simply boring and can be done with far less effort. I think our problem is caused by too much depending on it and by having numbers to run sigs as they were in summer, which i see from now as golden times, which are over.

Sure, some solo player might not even feel it, but as corp running it in fleet ops and organized with a community of more than 30 in region we are able to feel impacts of changes earlier and harder, thats why we have a different point of view. we stil can mostly fullfill our dayquotes but the time to do it has increased and it is more time intense.

The income itself is of course important, but what made exploration so interesting to do was the fun, as we always had stuff to do and the variability to do sigs was a real fun, cause ded5 and 6 demand changes to fits - the loot was of course the golden crown on it, but more to use it, than to sell it. Now it is like flying around and hoping to find something for a very long time and even if you find something like i had 3 Outposts in lowsec over the last days, the reward compared to risk was rather plain. in 2 of them no faction spawn at all, and in 3rd i got a dramatically important EM plating and a medium faction neuter, which was the only useful thing.

So, change is required, we adapt to it simply and do that until it will be changed again. For the next weeks mining is more important than everything else anyway as a lot of caps are going to be shot down thanks to the changes on 4th and PLEX prices will drop, as much more will be sold in shop after patch :)

Golden times are everywhere, just to find them is sometimes difficult and adapting to them is annoying :)

Edit: A change to somewhere else was discussed but we have a very complex production situation also involving low and nullsec close to our base. In the end it would require even more recon and intelligence and time to change than what a possible benefit would give back. I see it more as we dont run away from the difficulties, but face them and master them. If we would change everytime we face some troubles, we wouldnt be where we are now.

The war for the jump range systems at our borders is reaching the highest activity, several pirate gangs already have left as they are simply overrun and outnumbered; the nullsec border gangs are in panic as they lost many ships and are now actively recruiting. Times of change, thats all. In a few weeks the war parties will leave and our region willbe calm again when they have lost most of their supplies - like it was before and like it will be in future :)