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Isotopes and capital jumping
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Rowells
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#1 - 2014-10-01 21:48:50 UTC
First off, if you are not aware changes to capitals and jump drives are imminent for phoebe (November).

http://community.eveonline.com/news/dev-blogs/long-distance-travel-changes-inbound/

Now my question is (regardless of the your opinion on the changes) how do you see this affecting isotope usage/demand?
Will capitals using gates decrease demand significantly?
Will restrictions with timers and cool down reduce capability of using more isotopes?
Any other factors I may have missed?

Note: this threads intended purpose is not arguing about the changes themselves, but their affects on ice demand other things remaining constant. Please keep that in mind.

I've been an ice miner for a while now and I'm really curious to hear opinions on what at or may not happen.
Tau Cabalander
Retirement Retreat
Working Stiffs
#2 - 2014-10-01 23:52:29 UTC
WAG, as my crystal ball is as accurate as yours.

LO3 prices are going to rise (most are nulsec supplied from dark glitter).

Isotopes are going to continue to decline while stockpiles remain.
Rowells
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#3 - 2014-10-01 23:59:00 UTC
Tau Cabalander wrote:
WAG, as my crystal ball is as accurate as yours.

LO3 prices are going to rise (most are nulsec supplied from dark glitter).

Isotopes are going to continue to decline while stockpiles remain.

What makes you say LO will rise? (still waiting for my glitter to recover from crius tank)
Tau Cabalander
Retirement Retreat
Working Stiffs
#4 - 2014-10-02 00:45:40 UTC
Rowells wrote:
What makes you say LO will rise? (still waiting for my glitter to recover from crius tank)

WAG that there will be far less movement between null and hisec, so much more will need to be hisec sourced.

Of all the ice products, only LO3 is in the lowest amount (roughly half).

It will largely depend on the new reduced consumption levels, and how much still manages to be shipped from nulsec.
Nex Killer
Perkone
Caldari State
#5 - 2014-10-02 00:50:25 UTC
Rowells wrote:
Tau Cabalander wrote:
WAG, as my crystal ball is as accurate as yours.

LO3 prices are going to rise (most are nulsec supplied from dark glitter).

Isotopes are going to continue to decline while stockpiles remain.

What makes you say LO will rise? (still waiting for my glitter to recover from crius tank)


Maybe Tau is thinking once LO stock piles are gone and people switch from caps to more subcap fighting. They'll start using JB more often and prices of LO will go up.
K J Nolen
AS-Rock
#6 - 2014-10-02 15:33:44 UTC
I guess we shall find out if isotopes fall in price. I would hesitate to say otherwise but people still need to get places and the most efficient way of doing so is jumping. Also it means that the supply of ice from nullsec might diminish with the nerf to JF range.

What do you guys think.
Tau Cabalander
Retirement Retreat
Working Stiffs
#7 - 2014-10-02 18:37:01 UTC
K J Nolen wrote:
I guess we shall find out if isotopes fall in price. I would hesitate to say otherwise but people still need to get places and the most efficient way of doing so is jumping. Also it means that the supply of ice from nullsec might diminish with the nerf to JF range.

What do you guys think.

Isotopes used outside hisec will be coming less from hisec in the future.
Rowells
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#8 - 2014-10-02 18:39:52 UTC
Tau Cabalander wrote:
K J Nolen wrote:
I guess we shall find out if isotopes fall in price. I would hesitate to say otherwise but people still need to get places and the most efficient way of doing so is jumping. Also it means that the supply of ice from nullsec might diminish with the nerf to JF range.

What do you guys think.

Isotopes used outside hisec will be coming less from hisec in the future.

I imagine the cost of using fuel not harvested nearby will also increase in those areas
Nex Killer
Perkone
Caldari State
#9 - 2014-10-02 22:16:24 UTC  |  Edited by: Nex Killer
Someone in the nightmare thread about the change asked about Isotopes being used less and what is going to happen to help them out, he said they'll look into it. I wouldn't mind seeing them making JBs use LO and the Isotope that is dominantly mined in that region.
Eigenvalue
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
#10 - 2014-10-03 17:09:08 UTC
Capital ships will be by definition jumping dramatically less often because of timers and range limitations.

This means isotope prices will drop for a while as supply will be too great as consumption falls off a cliff.

People will stop producing isotopes as isk/hour decreases.

Prices will return to some much lower stable level that provides a minimal income for the remaining multiboxing / macro ice miners at some much lower level than now, but this won't happen until the existing inventory burns down to the level of consumption post changes.

For some non-trivial period of time the profession of "ice miner" will be a sad one.
Skydell
Bad Girl Posse
#11 - 2014-10-03 19:31:19 UTC
Rowells wrote:
Tau Cabalander wrote:
WAG, as my crystal ball is as accurate as yours.

LO3 prices are going to rise (most are nulsec supplied from dark glitter).

Isotopes are going to continue to decline while stockpiles remain.

What makes you say LO will rise? (still waiting for my glitter to recover from crius tank)


LOzone was always the bottleneck in Ice based production. Ice for Fuel blocks is 3:1 Ice to block production. In addition, LOzone is JB fuel. The new jump changes almost eliminate Isotope demand for 3:1 Ice reproc. Homeland defense capital roles is JB central. Why jump to a battle if you can use your bridge network? Add in they have said that using a JB network won't impact jump timers or fatigue.

LoZone is the new Isotope. Looking at Jita though, there is years on stock so anything we see right now is manipulation.
Nex Killer
Perkone
Caldari State
#12 - 2014-10-03 20:22:37 UTC  |  Edited by: Nex Killer
CCP Greyscale wrote:
Rowells wrote:
some questions:

Is there expected to be a noticeable impact on isotope usage as some players opt to use gates?
Is it correct to assume that in some circumstances(for instance using regional gate from tenal to cobalt edge) the projection has increased (not overall)? < terribly worded question
Will you consider allowing us to condense the timers in the top right corner slightly? That thjing is going to be very full for a lowsec pirate with jump fatigue/cooldown/NPC aggro/Player Aggro/Weapons timer etc.
Do you expect there to be a increase in capital uasage as cyno alts are no longer required?
On that note how many cyno alt accounts do you expect to be unsubbed/repurposed?
Will there be a follow up capital ships/module tune up or rebalance soon or is that undetermined yet?


Player related questions:
Who else is going to run dread roams after patch?
How many killmails do you expect to see with inertia stabs in the lows?
Anyone can think of really out-of-the box things you can or will do with a capital after patch?


- It seems somewhat likely, yes. We'll keep an eye on isotope usage.
- Yes, in some cases access to gates makes cap movement easier; we think on average it works out as a reduction, though.
- The proliferation of timers is something we're looking at, yes.
- Over small distances, it's possible, yes. The range of use cases is sufficiently diverse that it's hard to be sure, though.
- Not sure, they're less needed in some scenarios (using gates), but more needed in others (need more to travel a given number of LY)
- I don't have info on capital balance timelines currently, sorry (everyone else has gone home)

Good questions, thanks for the post :)


FOUND IT! Hopefully CCP Greyscale does keep on eye on the topes.
Rowells
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#13 - 2014-10-04 00:19:50 UTC
Nex Killer wrote:
CCP Greyscale wrote:
Rowells wrote:
some questions:

Is there expected to be a noticeable impact on isotope usage as some players opt to use gates?
Is it correct to assume that in some circumstances(for instance using regional gate from tenal to cobalt edge) the projection has increased (not overall)? < terribly worded question
Will you consider allowing us to condense the timers in the top right corner slightly? That thjing is going to be very full for a lowsec pirate with jump fatigue/cooldown/NPC aggro/Player Aggro/Weapons timer etc.
Do you expect there to be a increase in capital uasage as cyno alts are no longer required?
On that note how many cyno alt accounts do you expect to be unsubbed/repurposed?
Will there be a follow up capital ships/module tune up or rebalance soon or is that undetermined yet?


Player related questions:
Who else is going to run dread roams after patch?
How many killmails do you expect to see with inertia stabs in the lows?
Anyone can think of really out-of-the box things you can or will do with a capital after patch?


- It seems somewhat likely, yes. We'll keep an eye on isotope usage.
- Yes, in some cases access to gates makes cap movement easier; we think on average it works out as a reduction, though.
- The proliferation of timers is something we're looking at, yes.
- Over small distances, it's possible, yes. The range of use cases is sufficiently diverse that it's hard to be sure, though.
- Not sure, they're less needed in some scenarios (using gates), but more needed in others (need more to travel a given number of LY)
- I don't have info on capital balance timelines currently, sorry (everyone else has gone home)

Good questions, thanks for the post :)


FOUND IT! Hopefully CCP Greyscale does keep on eye on the topes.
thank you for finding this, I missed it somewhere in threadzilla
Nex Killer
Perkone
Caldari State
#14 - 2014-10-04 01:09:35 UTC
Rowells wrote:
thank you for finding this, I missed it somewhere in threadzilla


Ya it took me like 15mins to find it again in that thread, even using the dev next post button.
Mr Omniblivion
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#15 - 2014-10-04 06:45:35 UTC
Iso prices (and ice in general) are going to continue to tank until CCP makes some additional changes to fuel usage. Demand is getting hosed from the combination of fewer towers from Crius and fewer jumps from the upcoming changes. Not to mention less JB usage since those also apply fatigue.
Capsups
Atomic Mangocorp
#16 - 2014-10-04 09:47:54 UTC
Skydell wrote:

Add in they have said that using a JB network won't impact jump timers or fatigue.


I'm sorry what?

Devblog wrote:

Every time you use any jump drive, jump bridge or jump portal


Did I miss them changing their policy on that during the threadnaught, or did you misunderstand the devblog?
Tau Cabalander
Retirement Retreat
Working Stiffs
#17 - 2014-10-05 01:56:07 UTC  |  Edited by: Tau Cabalander
Christopher Mabata
Northern Accounts and Systems
#18 - 2014-10-06 11:44:46 UTC
Isotope prices are going to tank, early speculation is already setting in and the downshift is starting to pick up pace a bit, it will stabilize as more people stop mining Ice as their profit margins slip away leaving only the carebears who think "minerals I mine are free" to keep the market saturated. But a general decline in jump capable ship use and jump frequency will keep prices low since demand will be lower, which is why im stocking up on oxygen, helium, and Nitro when it hits a decent low point so i have a few months worth of fuel for my carriers and my Black Ops once they patch up the damage done to those.

Though i must admit living out of a carrier fleet is going to be interesting now with reduced range and lower fuel use because of it

♣ Small Gang PVP, Large Fleet PVP, Black Ops, Incursions, Trade, and Industry ♣ 70% Lethal / 30% Super-Snuggly / 110% No idea what im doing ♣

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Tau Cabalander
Retirement Retreat
Working Stiffs
#19 - 2014-10-07 03:29:34 UTC
Tau Cabalander wrote:
LO3 prices are going to rise (most are nulsec supplied from dark glitter).

LO3 prices seem to be bottoming-out and rebounding.

Go figure.

But only time will tell.
Fu Qjoo
Pangalactic Frontline Supply Agency
#20 - 2014-10-07 06:01:51 UTC
Tau Cabalander wrote:
Tau Cabalander wrote:
LO3 prices are going to rise (most are nulsec supplied from dark glitter).

LO3 prices seem to be bottoming-out and rebounding.

Go figure.

But only time will tell.


All prices will go up. Or down. Or not.