These forums have been archived and are now read-only.

The new forums are live and can be found at https://forums.eveonline.com/

Science & Industry

 
  • Topic is locked indefinitely.
Previous page123
 

T2 Invention oddity

First post
Author
Previous Topic Next Topic
Myfanwy Heimdal
Heimdal Freight and Manufacture Inc
#41 - 2014-09-23 19:36:54 UTC
I don't work for a booking agency (which sounds a little like a travel agency but I can only assume that wherever you live that's what you call your local bookmaker) but work for myself as a punter. And they're off the top of my head figures anyway. And besides, despite the number of years of punting things can still come out fuzzily after a bathful of gin and tonic.

But the point is this; the LLR (Longest Losing Run) is important as if one starts during a long losing run then it's not to be unexpected. The same as drawdown; one has to assume that one comes in at the worst possible time. Or rather the point is that people look at the odds and think that things fall neatly into little packets of losing runs with a nice winner at even intervals.

This is what has happened here.

If you are of the punting persuasion then the best of luck with that.

- Myfanwy

Pam:  I wonder what my name means in Welsh?Nessa: Why?
Bugsy VanHalen
Society of lost Souls
#42 - 2014-09-25 17:50:55 UTC
try inventing jump freighters, where you can only make 12-14 attempts per month, due to lead time on copies, and very long invention job times.

I have had times were I got 1 T2 BPC out of 10 attempts. and these attempts are not cheap when they burn 128 datacores and an expensive decryptor every attempt.

And coming in the next update, base invention chance on Jump freighters is going down by 10%.

As others have said, you need a batch size of thousands to actually expect to see results near equal to your invention chance. That is feasible for ammo invention, but not for jump freighters. Yet it still needs to be done.

Hopefully I get enough successful attempts from the jobs I got in now to carry me through a few months worth of production. last batch was 6 attempts at about 53% chance after decryptors, and I got 1 success.
Myfanwy Heimdal
Heimdal Freight and Manufacture Inc
#43 - 2014-09-25 18:55:41 UTC
Best of luck with that.

Pam:  I wonder what my name means in Welsh?Nessa: Why?
Owen Levanth
Sagittarius Unlimited Exploration
#44 - 2014-09-25 22:21:59 UTC
Bugsy VanHalen wrote:
try inventing jump freighters, where you can only make 12-14 attempts per month, due to lead time on copies, and very long invention job times.

I have had times were I got 1 T2 BPC out of 10 attempts. and these attempts are not cheap when they burn 128 datacores and an expensive decryptor every attempt.

And coming in the next update, base invention chance on Jump freighters is going down by 10%.

As others have said, you need a batch size of thousands to actually expect to see results near equal to your invention chance. That is feasible for ammo invention, but not for jump freighters. Yet it still needs to be done.

Hopefully I get enough successful attempts from the jobs I got in now to carry me through a few months worth of production. last batch was 6 attempts at about 53% chance after decryptors, and I got 1 success.


Just stock up on BPCs when you're on a succesful run. Or wait for the invention changes, when you'll at least get most of your datacores back after a failed attempt. This should compensate you more then enough for the lower chance.
Apelacja
Sad Najwyzszy
#45 - 2014-09-29 00:51:30 UTC
to the author - from my expirience chance is not true.

I have made more then 5 k invention of ships and was collecting logs from it. In practice i`ve got 30% less sucesses then i should.

I think it also depends on items/decryptors.

CCP answer for my petition was like: we are pity for your bad luck. I will say bullshit. Probability that u will get 30% less sucesses in such as big testing set is less then 0,00001% ( from modified bernoulli equation).


So yea random doesn`t have anything here to talk
Khalia Nestune
Mad Stacks
#46 - 2014-09-29 01:13:51 UTC
Relevant to this thread:

http://www.kodyaz.com/images/pics/random-number-generator-dilbert-comic.jpg

http://www.mylootyourtears.com
Previous page123