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MASSIVE Discrepancy in Invention success rates

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Thomas Hurt
Future Ventures
#1 - 2014-09-17 19:53:40 UTC
The last few days I ran a few invention jobs on marauder BPCs. They claimed to have a 75% success rate, but only 11 out of 20 succeeded. Would a Dev or GM come in here and care to explain how they managed to f*ck the math up this bad? I don't know if it's a coding problem or what, but something obviously needs to be fixed.
Tau Cabalander
Retirement Retreat
Working Stiffs
#2 - 2014-09-17 20:01:56 UTC
Ginger Barbarella
#3 - 2014-09-17 20:10:33 UTC  |  Edited by: Ginger Barbarella
Thomas Hurt wrote:
The last few days I ran a few invention jobs on marauder BPCs. They claimed to have a 75% success rate, but only 11 out of 20 succeeded. Would a Dev or GM come in here and care to explain how they managed to f*ck the math up this bad? I don't know if it's a coding problem or what, but something obviously needs to be fixed.


Who is "they" and why are "they" claiming 75% success? That's really INSANE given what you're inventing, but I'm curious to see the justification.

Edit: can we start the pool now? I've got 100mil on "didn't do the math right"...

"Blow it all on Quafe and strippers." --- Sorlac
Asheava
Darwinbots
#4 - 2014-09-17 21:23:43 UTC  |  Edited by: Asheava
Shall we let Wolfram Alpha do some math?

How likely is it that we'll only get 11 or fewer successes? 4%.

Let's suppose there was an invention job with a 96% success rate. You ran it once and it failed. Would you conclude that invention jobs are broken? Or that you had a bad beat?
Shoogie
Serious Pixels
#5 - 2014-09-17 22:01:26 UTC
The invention formula is:
Base * (1+ 0.02*(Science Skill 1* Science Skill 2) + 0.01*(Encryption Methods Skill)) * Decryptor Modifier.

The Base success rate for inventing battleships is 20%. Assuming you have perfect skills, the formula is:
0.2 *(1+(0.02*10)+(0.01*5))* Decryptor Modifier
=0.2 * 1.25 * Decryptor Modifier
= 25% * Decryptor Modifier

The optimized attainment decryptor gives the best success rate with a 1.9 modifier.
25% * 1.9 = 47.5%, which is the very best success rate currently possible in game for inventing Marauders. Who told you that you should be getting 75%?

So it looks like your 11/20 success rate is actually rather lucky.
Ginger Barbarella
#6 - 2014-09-17 22:05:33 UTC
Shoogie wrote:
The invention formula is:
Base * (1+ 0.02*(Science Skill 1* Science Skill 2) + 0.01*(Encryption Methods Skill)) * Decryptor Modifier.

The Base success rate for inventing battleships is 20%. Assuming you have perfect skills, the formula is:
0.2 *(1+(0.02*10)+(0.01*5))* Decryptor Modifier
=0.2 * 1.25 * Decryptor Modifier
= 25% * Decryptor Modifier

The optimized attainment decryptor gives the best success rate with a 1.9 modifier.
25% * 1.9 = 47.5%, which is the very best success rate currently possible in game for inventing Marauders. Who told you that you should be getting 75%?

So it looks like your 11/20 success rate is actually rather lucky.


Math is hard... Twisted

"Blow it all on Quafe and strippers." --- Sorlac
Thomas Hurt
Future Ventures
#7 - 2014-09-17 22:06:05 UTC
Shoogie wrote:
The invention formula is:
Base * (1+ 0.02*(Science Skill 1* Science Skill 2) + 0.01*(Encryption Methods Skill)) * Decryptor Modifier.

The Base success rate for inventing battleships is 20%. Assuming you have perfect skills, the formula is:
0.2 *(1+(0.02*10)+(0.01*5))* Decryptor Modifier
=0.2 * 1.25 * Decryptor Modifier
= 25% * Decryptor Modifier

The optimized attainment decryptor gives the best success rate with a 1.9 modifier.
25% * 1.9 = 47.5%, which is the very best success rate currently possible in game for inventing Marauders. Who told you that you should be getting 75%?

So it looks like your 11/20 success rate is actually rather lucky.


The success rate is supposed to be 75%, but mine was 55%. No amount of Liberal Ivory Tower Math will change that fact.
Ginger Barbarella
#8 - 2014-09-17 22:09:53 UTC
Thomas Hurt wrote:

The success rate is supposed to be 75%


Source, please.

"Blow it all on Quafe and strippers." --- Sorlac
Thomas Hurt
Future Ventures
#9 - 2014-09-17 22:22:05 UTC
Ginger Barbarella wrote:
Thomas Hurt wrote:

The success rate is supposed to be 75%


Source, please.


It said 75% on my screen...
Nevyn Auscent
Broke Sauce
#10 - 2014-09-17 23:03:09 UTC
Thomas Hurt wrote:

It said 75% on my screen...

Screenshot source please?
Also even if it was 75% chance, 4% is still a significant chance to be likely in the overall thing.
RNG dictates how many actually make the chance. If you make 10,000 BPC's it will even out to whatever the correct number actually is.

Finally, read Dev Blogs, Invention is all changing anyway, so no point getting uptight about it now.
Derrick Miles
Death Rabbit Ky Oneida
#11 - 2014-09-18 00:23:15 UTC
Thomas Hurt wrote:
The success rate is supposed to be 75%, but mine was 55%. No amount of Liberal Ivory Tower Math will change that fact.

Liberal Ivory Tower Math.

Also known as math.
RubyPorto
RubysRhymes
#12 - 2014-09-18 00:41:13 UTC
Ah yes, Thomas Hurt returns.

"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths." -Abrazzar "the risk of having your day ruined by other people is the cornerstone with which EVE was built" -CCP Solomon
Paranoid Loyd
#13 - 2014-09-18 01:13:13 UTC
Sample set too small, keep inventing until your success rate is 75% then you will have a large enough sample set.

"There is only one authority in this game, and that my friend is violence. The supreme authority upon which all other authority is derived." ISD Max Trix

Fix the Prospect!
Wopasi
Wicoti
#14 - 2014-09-18 01:17:10 UTC
"No amount of Liberal Ivory Tower Math will change that fact."

I am going to use this phrase a minimum of three times at work tomorrow.
ISD LackOfFaith
ISD Community Communications Liaisons
ISD Alliance
#15 - 2014-09-18 15:03:21 UTC
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