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Actual versus perceived risk

Author
Kirasten
Perkone
Caldari State
#21 - 2014-09-09 02:18:08 UTC  |  Edited by: Kirasten
From my experience so far, the risk seems to be close to the same or maybe slightly less. The changes made some aspects more dangerous, but there are less actual dangerous people. That being said, we still find people to shoot at and sites to run. The new spawn mechanics made for an interesting (mostly) solo roll of a 3 bil hole while lazerhawks kept trying to catch me at it. GF btw.

I think the important part of what you are asking about is the "perceived" part. It doesn't matter if there is more risk as much as the perception of more risk. That is what is killing activity.
BayneNothos
United Electro-Magnetic Federation
Business Alliance of Manufacturers and Miners
#22 - 2014-09-09 03:41:20 UTC
Risk is the same as it previously was, it's just had it's cloaking device turned off. I'm certain the vast majority of the people who are supposedly moving out would have left in 6 months anyway. Hyperion is just a convenient excuse to leave, they can blame CCP for "forcing" them out rather than just admitting that W Space isn't where they want to be right now.
Hatshepsut IV
Un.Reasonable
#23 - 2014-09-09 07:52:21 UTC
I've never fallen off a skyscraper but I know its dangerous.

I think the troll post you meant to make is Imagined risk vs actual risk.

Quote:
per·ceive

/pərˈsēv/

verb

verb: perceive; 3rd person present: perceives; past tense: perceived; past participle: perceived; gerund or present participle: perceiving

1.

become aware or conscious of (something); come to realize or understand.


Public Channel | Un.Welcome

calaretu
Honestly We didnt know
#24 - 2014-09-09 08:20:08 UTC
Everyone know that even the 10 man corps in wspace has a 15 man blue fleet waiting on the other side of the wormhole. You just wait and see. And the russians are seeding capitals in your home again!
CivilWars
Half Empty
xqtywiznalamywmodxfhhopawzpqyjdwrpeptuaenabjawdzku
#25 - 2014-09-09 13:59:22 UTC
@Derath, I still care about w-space, at least enough to post here, even after I have moved out because I still use w-space pretty much daily. Also, I still have a spot in my heart for her, and who knows, some day I may return. I guess more than anything though it just saddens me how far the "mighty" have fallen. It wasn't that long ago that w-space residents preyed on the weak both in game and on the forums. W-space has always been one of the most difficult aspects of a difficult game, and IMO because of this created some of the most skilled pilots in the game. W-space felt much the same as Broadway in that if you could make it there you could make it anywhere. Now, not so much.

Before, if you rolled into someone and they refused to fight they were put on "the list". Now if people openly claim on the forums that they pos up or log if they have more than 3 open connections they are applauded for "sticking it to the man". IMO Bob desires that w-space be cleansed of "those people", so in that regard Fozzie is doing god's work. I do not feel that these changes were anything great for w-space, BUT I also do not feel that these changes alone make it worth leaving w-space. Some people have chosen to HTFU*, adapt, and overcome while others keep packing their bags. If these changes alone scare someone, or even a group of someones, that bad then odds are they weren't going to fight anyway, so IMO nothing of real value, except maybe a few ganks here and there, is lost.


*Mad props to my good friend Hidden Fremen :) and LZHX. I wish I could have been there, and am anxiously awaiting the full story.

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Durzel
Questionable Ethics.
Ministry of Inappropriate Footwork
#26 - 2014-09-09 15:02:03 UTC  |  Edited by: Durzel
On the one hand W-space just being blobs and blues everywhere is not good, but on the flip side people shouldn't be able to manipulate the mechanics so easily to have "safe PVE zones".

If anything, ironically, this was easier in C5+ since collapsing wormholes there was trivial with capitals. In the lower class wormholes, where you'd expect it to be easier, it was actually considerably worse. Good luck collapsing an M267 with several Orcas jumps in a C3 now that you spawn however far you do when you come back in. The little guys got hit the hardest with this mechanic change.

There should've been some concession made to small corps in w-space, who one presumes if they are living in C1-C4 that they don't feel like they're up to C5+ anyway. There isn't really an issue of ISK making in <=C4 since there are no capital escalations. I don't quite understand why these small corps are deemed collateral damage for what is a pretty blunt instrument to "fix" risk vs reward in C5+

That being said I've got zero sympathy for daytrippers and PVE-only people who can no longer function in C5+. Their loss is of no consequence.
Serendipity Lost
Repo Industries
#27 - 2014-09-09 15:11:15 UTC
The actual risk in rolling a wh hasn't changed. 100% of ships warped to a wh are at risk. The reason for the warp doesn't matter. PVP, rolling, moving loot or visitiy mammy thule for a quick work out all have the same amount of risk.

Ganking someone rolling a wh pre hyperion. Some risk, but he choice is yours. You could do any number of things to the rolling group, but at the end of the day the ultimate risk was to put your fleet through the wh and get rolled in.

So, pre hyperion the roller's safety net was banking on not too many gank fleets went all in and took you on in your home wh. Their decision to minimize their risk and not go all in (and this could have been for any number of reasons - being smart about pvp is included in the reasons) provided a margin of safety. It didn't limit a rollers risk, it gave them a margin of safety. These are distinctly different things.



Post hyperion rolling risk is still 100%. It didn't increase.

Post hyperion roller ganking risk went way down. You don't need to put the 'all in' option on the table. If you can master webbing and bumping (bumping a large rolling ship w/ a t3 cruiser isn't that difficult and activating a web is pretty easy) you just have to lay in wait for the loot pinata to jump into you.

So the post hyperion risk to the gank side has gone down to pretty much zero. The safety margin of the gankers not going 'all in' has been removed fromt the game for the rolling side.



Analysis:

If you're a risk averse ganking fleet you'll be doing high fives and cartwheels for a few weeks until you realize the rollers are gone.

If you're a roller, you do the same math you did before, but now that the safety margin has been removed from the game you get the 'don't roll' result much more often than in the past.

If you're a non risk averse ganker that used to go 'all in' pre hyperion you're doing some version of a triple face palm and looking for a bag of kittens to take this out on.
Rroff
Antagonistic Tendencies
#28 - 2014-09-09 15:23:04 UTC
^^ Ages ago when I was living in a pulsar we had someone open to us and I'm guessing seeing it was coming upto the time we usually did PVE and not seeing anyone active brought a couple of scimis and tengus with prototype cloaks + covert cloaky tackle and tried to lie in wait for us collapsing. Unfortunately for them I was logged in on a cloaked up alt and saw them at it.
Durzel
Questionable Ethics.
Ministry of Inappropriate Footwork
#29 - 2014-09-09 15:25:24 UTC  |  Edited by: Durzel
@Serendipity Lost

You're mostly correct, except in the case of highsec holes (for example). Someone collapsing a highsec hole would've been totally safe - unless they derped on the polarisation timer - since they would be in jump range on both sides (not that jump range would matter in highsec).

The only time those people would be at risk is someone was watching them collapse and aggressed after the wormhole was gone, but if they have that patience more power to them to be honest.

If we assume this jump range mechanic had to exist - maybe it should've only applied to C5 and up?
Serendipity Lost
Repo Industries
#30 - 2014-09-09 16:22:35 UTC
Durzel wrote:
@Serendipity Lost

You're mostly correct, except in the case of highsec holes (for example). Someone collapsing a highsec hole would've been totally safe - unless they derped on the polarisation timer - since they would be in jump range on both sides (not that jump range would matter in highsec).

The only time those people would be at risk is someone was watching them collapse and aggressed after the wormhole was gone, but if they have that patience more power to them to be honest.

If we assume this jump range mechanic had to exist - maybe it should've only applied to C5 and up?



Agreed. A HS wh is a special case due to the rule of concord law. I didn't include it in the analysis because of concord and you can only have random pew on 1 side of the hole. For HS wh the roller will always have the advantage warping to the HS. They can only lose rolling ships due to carelessness or poor intel. Which oddly enough I totally agree with. There has to be an interface somewhere.
Shilalasar
Dead Sky Inc.
#31 - 2014-09-09 18:31:31 UTC
Serendipity Lost wrote:
[quote=Durzel]Agreed. A HS wh is a special case due to the rule of concord law. I didn't include it in the analysis because of concord and you can only have random pew on 1 side of the hole. For HS wh the roller will always have the advantage warping to the HS. They can only lose rolling ships due to carelessness or poor intel. Which oddly enough I totally agree with. There has to be an interface somewhere.


There are a lot more reasons to get killed on a highsec, f.e. bad secstatus or factionstanding will make it not fun for you to jump out.
I would say fighting on a highsec follows a different set of rules, you need other approaches, fittings and tactics.
Just like fighting in highsec itself with aggressiontimers that even transfer over and other strange stuff.
scorchlikeshiswhiskey
Totally Abstract
O X I D E
#32 - 2014-09-09 19:30:44 UTC  |  Edited by: scorchlikeshiswhiskey
**The following post doesn't have much to do with the question of Actual vs Perceived "scaredy bears running from my T3 fleet" risk since I think the OP was at least partially troll-y in nature but, by raising it, several good points have been brought up. You have been warned, read at your own risk. **

I am of the opinion that Eve should reward the people that are willing to put in the extra effort, whether it be blinging your ship, following someone into their own hole, or patiently waiting on a highsec hole to gank when it closes. In the same way it should reward the hunted in those scenarios if they have the forethought to bring Falcons, or have backup pre-aligned just waiting on the "Go" command. This is all pre-established and I think that anyone not trying to troll would have a hard time arguing the basic principle. With that being said, it sets up for 2 points:
1) Frigate holes are terrible. I've written a few posts on that so I won't repeat it save to repeat one point from that, that there was no precedent for a frig only hole, not to mention an uncloseable hole.
2) For anyone who does PvE "bear" stuff in wormholes, i.e. living in that wormhole, Hyperion added more stick while adding zero carrot. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrot_and_stick for anyone who is unfamiliar with the terms I used) To clarify, if you reside in a wormhole for the PvP aspect alone, Hyperion probably added to your experience, however if you partake of the PvE and "bear" aspect of wormholes as well as the PvP like most people then Hyperion probably had at least some negative impact on your playstyle. Hyperion primarily impacted smaller groups in a negative way, due to the added manpower to accomplish the same level of system security as pre-Hyperion. I don't want to get into whether wanting system security is too "bear-ish" or not, suffice to say that everyone is responsible for making the decision to accept the risk or not and everyone has different criteria for acceptable risk.

In conclusion, I don't really like spawning 14km away from the hole in an Orca but I don't think that the change should be done away with because it only requires a change in tactics for the majority of players to adapt and move on. Remember, "You can make some of the people happy some of the time, but you can't make all of the people happy all the time". I don't really mind the changes to K hole sig mechanics either, it sucks a little more if you're on the receiving end, but if you are a competent pilot you will be rewarded by keeping your ship and if you are the ones opening the hole looking for pew then you will appreciate the reduced warning time for your potential targets. Again, it was a pretty big change when you take into account the number of activities that it can affect but it only requires a small tactical shift to accommodate. And, finally, I encourage our CSM reps to try and talk some sense into CCP in the hopes of getting some carrot added to wormholes, shift the risk/reward ratio by adding more reward so that players will accept more risk. This would make PvP players happy, whether they be part-timer PvPers or not, by bringing in more PvE'ers and bears looking to get fat and happy on the increased reward of wormholes. I would like to point out the the primary focus of such an endeavor should be the C1-C3 wormholes, the types of holes that most people start off in and the holes that are probably going to have the largest number of groups feeling downtrodden after these changes.
Mal Nina
The Red Circle Inc.
Ministry of Inappropriate Footwork
#33 - 2014-09-09 20:10:25 UTC
It must be remembered that the intent of these changes was to bring more risk. There is a perception at CCP that we WH groups are way to rich and that the equation of risk vs. reward needed to be changed. I still feel that this change did nothing to address this end other than take small groups and give them the perception of increased risk which was intended by the changes. Only CCP has the potential of determining the delta of move-outs vs. move-ins and even that could be hard to determine accurately.

For large entities there is no real change, we just do what we have been doing. Scanning down the rabbit hole all the way to its end and seeing what is out there.

As others have said in this forum and before the changes took place its a question of risk and reward. With no additional reward the changes result in negative perception. The one thing no one really talks about is game time and the enjoyment derived from the limited time people have to play. These changes changed both the idea of perceived risk and drove less enjoyment from limited time. How? If you like to rage roll... less enjoyment for PVP due to the longer times required. If you are a small corp and have WHs in home that cannot be closed and are unwilling to run PVE content than your limited time is impacted negatively. All in all corps have been thrust into a loose, loose situation \perceived or real really doesn't matter. Perception in the end is truth. Just ask why null bears cry about cloaky AFK all the time. In a single moment that cloaky may prove to not be AFK just like that WH may prove not to be as empty as it was when you started your PVE content.

You claim people are just lazy and risk adverse. we all seek to mitigate risk and maximize our time while playing this game. In a game with limited time to devout this may mean not scanning down every hole in your home. It might mean logging in and saying WTF and getting out to play some other game that gives you more enjoyment for the short time you can play.

The small WHs could have been great, if they had led to new content and potential fights over that content in a new class of deep WH space only reachable through them. For WH space to continue to thrive it has to have more than just T3 parts. PVE and industry is the ultimately the driver for PVP.

Things like ring mining, the above mentioned special WH, more products for the goods gotten in WH space would really helped to tip the perceived risk and reward back in favor of growth leading to more PVP opportunity.
Allna
Aim High
#34 - 2014-09-09 20:54:22 UTC
We live in a low-class hole (C2), so I can't speak for higher class holes and bigger ships rolling holes and what-not.

We are a small organization, we qualify as the "small guys" that keep getting mentioned.

I'm going to be blunt and honest, the changes in Hyperion have had virtually zero impact on our day to day.

When we actually roll holes we don't bother with Orcas, just battleships, so, instead of being 1km from the hole we're 5-6km, which hasn't really changed anything for us.

The frigate holes have been more or less non-existent to us -- that being, they have shown up periodically, however we don't bother using them (someone will run through in a frigate and check things out, find a desolate wasteland with tumbleweeds, and then we proceed with our night).

The sig ID's not changing after downtime was pretty cool, I think we mostly dig that.

I suppose from my perspective the "little guys" that this affected are the "little guys" who are living in higher class holes (C4 and above?), so I can't speak to them since we are super low class dudes (pun intended!).

From our perspective as a collective though, Hyperion has been kind of.. well to me it almost seems like nothing happened, good or bad.

We totally dig the overview changes though!
CivilWars
Half Empty
xqtywiznalamywmodxfhhopawzpqyjdwrpeptuaenabjawdzku
#35 - 2014-09-09 21:48:36 UTC
Allna wrote:
We live in a low-class hole (C2), so I can't speak for higher class holes and bigger ships rolling holes and what-not.

We are a small organization, we qualify as the "small guys" that keep getting mentioned.

I'm going to be blunt and honest, the changes in Hyperion have had virtually zero impact on our day to day.

When we actually roll holes we don't bother with Orcas, just battleships, so, instead of being 1km from the hole we're 5-6km, which hasn't really changed anything for us.

The frigate holes have been more or less non-existent to us -- that being, they have shown up periodically, however we don't bother using them (someone will run through in a frigate and check things out, find a desolate wasteland with tumbleweeds, and then we proceed with our night).

The sig ID's not changing after downtime was pretty cool, I think we mostly dig that.

I suppose from my perspective the "little guys" that this affected are the "little guys" who are living in higher class holes (C4 and above?), so I can't speak to them since we are super low class dudes (pun intended!).

From our perspective as a collective though, Hyperion has been kind of.. well to me it almost seems like nothing happened, good or bad.

We totally dig the overview changes though!

You better run. I see an angry mob with pitchforks and torches headed this way, and they seem to be eyeballing you. You are not toeing the company line, and that is frowned upon around these parts.

Hidden Fremen liked your forum post:

Jack Miton liked your forum post:

scorchlikeshiswhiskey
Totally Abstract
O X I D E
#36 - 2014-09-09 22:01:43 UTC
CivilWars wrote:
Allna wrote:
We live in a low-class hole (C2), so I can't speak for higher class holes and bigger ships rolling holes and what-not.

We are a small organization, we qualify as the "small guys" that keep getting mentioned.

I'm going to be blunt and honest, the changes in Hyperion have had virtually zero impact on our day to day.

When we actually roll holes we don't bother with Orcas, just battleships, so, instead of being 1km from the hole we're 5-6km, which hasn't really changed anything for us.

The frigate holes have been more or less non-existent to us -- that being, they have shown up periodically, however we don't bother using them (someone will run through in a frigate and check things out, find a desolate wasteland with tumbleweeds, and then we proceed with our night).

The sig ID's not changing after downtime was pretty cool, I think we mostly dig that.

I suppose from my perspective the "little guys" that this affected are the "little guys" who are living in higher class holes (C4 and above?), so I can't speak to them since we are super low class dudes (pun intended!).

From our perspective as a collective though, Hyperion has been kind of.. well to me it almost seems like nothing happened, good or bad.

We totally dig the overview changes though!

You better run. I see an angry mob with pitchforks and torches headed this way, and they seem to be eyeballing you. You are not toeing the company line, and that is frowned upon around these parts.

Yea!! This is the internet, not some place for hippies the ability to freely exchange ideas and opinions! Twisted

/sarcasm Big smile
Ruffio Sepico
Hidden Agenda
Deep Space Engineering
#37 - 2014-09-09 22:38:09 UTC
CivilWars wrote:

You better run. I see an angry mob with pitchforks and torches headed this way, and they seem to be eyeballing you. You are not toeing the company line, and that is frowned upon around these parts.


How people percieve and experience things does differ. I don't think there is any absolute comapny line to follow here. How changes inpact on players differs due to a lot of reasons. Some hate them, some indiferent and doesn't really care. The "vocal" majority seems to dislike them, but there is a lot of players out there thats not heard from on these forums.

Only when CCP release the metrics over how the changes did inpact on things we can really tell. If its very quiet out there because people afraid, or have a hard time to adjust to changes before things return to more or less normal, or to many picked up and left who knows. Maybe CCP tell us one of these days.


Pro TIps
Doomheim
#38 - 2014-09-09 23:01:41 UTC
CivilWars wrote:
Yes, there were, and still are, some dumb/brave/masochistic people that will try to bear with open holes, but guess what, they still exist, and still do stupid stuff.

We have to farm our statics for money, as the anom spawn rate in our C4 historically was 10/week (now it's around half that.)

Not going to spend time rolling every entrance to the statics so we can then spend time farming the combat sites we find, especially since it takes time (and risk) to find the ******* by rolling in the first place.

Anyway, we've been killed by frig gangs from newly-formed frig holes lately as well. The same thing could happen if it were cruisers except, guess what, each time it happens from a frig hole we know it would not have occurred before Hyperion because that frig hole wouldn't have formed in the first place. It's a new source of red ink for us that we can directly see (to say nothing of increased risk due to more connectivity in general.)


You should be glad there are groups like mine, that make ISK in their statics and don't go to every possible effort to avoid interacting with other players. We're not suicidal, but if we think we have a chance to win a fight, we'll take it. If we get ganked by a much larger group, the gankers get a "gf" and we go do something else (because we know you guys love to camp for those repeat kills.)

There won't be groups like mine in W-space for very long unless something is done with loot. I'm not saying take the risk away. It is kinda fun. However, if small groups can't replace their losses, they won't stay around.
Winthorp
#39 - 2014-09-09 23:10:59 UTC
Allna wrote:
We live in a low-class hole (C2), so I can't speak for higher class holes and bigger ships rolling holes and what-not.

We are a small organization, we qualify as the "small guys" that keep getting mentioned.

I'm going to be blunt and honest, the changes in Hyperion have had virtually zero impact on our day to day.

When we actually roll holes we don't bother with Orcas, just battleships, so, instead of being 1km from the hole we're 5-6km, which hasn't really changed anything for us.

The frigate holes have been more or less non-existent to us -- that being, they have shown up periodically, however we don't bother using them (someone will run through in a frigate and check things out, find a desolate wasteland with tumbleweeds, and then we proceed with our night).

The sig ID's not changing after downtime was pretty cool, I think we mostly dig that.

I suppose from my perspective the "little guys" that this affected are the "little guys" who are living in higher class holes (C4 and above?), so I can't speak to them since we are super low class dudes (pun intended!).

From our perspective as a collective though, Hyperion has been kind of.. well to me it almost seems like nothing happened, good or bad.

We totally dig the overview changes though!


This sums up what i have been saying for a month.

But i guess unless she rolls with a dread she will just get ignored.
Allna
Aim High
#40 - 2014-09-10 00:04:03 UTC
CivilWars wrote:

You better run. I see an angry mob with pitchforks and torches headed this way, and they seem to be eyeballing you. You are not toeing the company line, and that is frowned upon around these parts.



Well, in an effort to sidestep any burning at the stake I may endure, I will point out that I did say that we noticed nothing bad OR GOOD with Hyperion. :)

That said, I probably should have put more emphasis on that part, that we as a group don't notice the negatives, but we most assuredly noticed the lack of positives with the latest "wormhole centric" update/patch/minispansion/whateveritscalled.

The fact that this was hyped as a mostly w-space release, yet, nothing really got us excited other than the overview stuff (not wormhole specific), that kinda bugs us.
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