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Crius-killing margins rapidly what can we do?
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Lucas Kell
Solitude Trading
S.N.O.T.
#21 - 2014-08-15 11:23:24 UTC
If you believe all the hype from "the usual crowd", half of the highsec industry community quit the game when Crius came out, so the margins should be increasing!

Realistically the margins are just moving about a bit while people swap and change what they are building trying to find a new comfort zone. T2s are going to be a bit funny until people run out of the buffed BPCs that got put out with the expansion.

The Indecisive Noob - EVE fan blog.

Wholesale Trading - The new bulk trading mailing list.
Qmamoto Kansuke
Killing with pink power
Penguins with lasorz
#22 - 2014-08-15 12:59:48 UTC
Lucas Kell wrote:
If you believe all the hype from "the usual crowd", half of the highsec industry community quit the game when Crius came out, so the margins should be increasing!

Realistically the margins are just moving about a bit while people swap and change what they are building trying to find a new comfort zone. T2s are going to be a bit funny until people run out of the buffed BPCs that got put out with the expansion.



I hear ya mate, however you just nailed it "until people run out of the buffed BPCs", that's one of the issues, I alone have around 35000 bpcs, and one of my friends has about 98000...yea they are going to run out of bpcs when they are old enough not to be able to lift.Lol
Lucas Kell
Solitude Trading
S.N.O.T.
#23 - 2014-08-15 13:09:09 UTC
Qmamoto Kansuke wrote:
Lucas Kell wrote:
If you believe all the hype from "the usual crowd", half of the highsec industry community quit the game when Crius came out, so the margins should be increasing!

Realistically the margins are just moving about a bit while people swap and change what they are building trying to find a new comfort zone. T2s are going to be a bit funny until people run out of the buffed BPCs that got put out with the expansion.
I hear ya mate, however you just nailed it "until people run out of the buffed BPCs", that's one of the issues, I alone have around 35000 bpcs, and one of my friends has about 98000...yea they are going to run out of bpcs when they are old enough not to be able to lift.Lol
Since that's restricted to T2 BPCs, the difference is quite small (unbuffed get like 4% buffed go up to 9% at most) and because T2 BPCs are now much closer to T2 BPOs, I don't think it will be a huge issue. At most it will stop new entrants into certain overly populated T2 markets, but the primary market margins will be unaffected.

The Indecisive Noob - EVE fan blog.

Wholesale Trading - The new bulk trading mailing list.
Paynus Maiassus
Imperial Academy
Amarr Empire
#24 - 2014-08-15 15:33:38 UTC
I am not exactly a trader and can't claim to be well attuned to the pulse of the entire market. However, as a manufacturer I run a spreadsheet that calculates margins on 251 non-capital ship hull T1 items calculated based on the current low sell order at Jita and calculating build cost off of the mineral value of the current low sell prices of the minerals (and other materials) that make them, plus the install costs based on the system cost index of the high sec system I was at before I moved to null sec, and adjustable for whether the items were made in POS arrays or in stations. Basically it reflects my high sec T1 manufacturing operation before I moved to null sec which was entirely based around buying components and materials at Jita and selling manufactured items at Jita. The sheet color codes every item with more than a 20% margin as green. There are currently 92 of 251 items that are selling at Jita at or above 20% above the production cost as described above. Cursorily looking down the margin column I see multiple items selling above 30% and above 40%. Yes, certain things have changed, such as RAM Techs (no surprise, they were always over inflated). But in general, Battleships seem to be selling at slightly negative up to about 10% margin on the Apocalypse right now. The Caracal is 12% and the Moa is 17% (Thank you HERO!), and well I could go on, but basically my little sample of the T1 market is showing a lot of health and opportunity. You're doing something wrong, OP.
Team Bidders
Doomheim
#25 - 2014-08-15 16:08:06 UTC
Qmamoto Kansuke wrote:
Lol like i said im not producing at loss, but I see more and more things that goes absurdly low since crius I will give you just one example that I used to build long time ago Adaptive invul t2s pre-crius these things were in the 2.2m range and were super profitable to build right now no matter how tight you squeeze that index you're going to be building them at loss unless you're t2 bpo owner i suppose.I will find those items you still build at profit and i will crush their margins.Twisted


I researched T2 Adaptive Invul roughly 2 years ago. This was a market over-supplied by T2 BPO manufacturers.

Since then it was removed from my watchlist. Therefore, I didn't know what happened since then. Maybe a T2 BPO owner stopped producing them and let the price go up so that he could sell hsi T2 BPO at better price.

I advice: Don't be a one-trick pony.Watch over more markets.
Kirkwood Ross
Golden Profession
#26 - 2014-08-15 20:35:49 UTC
Pass that tax onto the consumer. **** that guy.
Retar Aveymone
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#27 - 2014-08-15 21:36:58 UTC
Qmamoto Kansuke wrote:
Lol like i said im not producing at loss, but I see more and more things that goes absurdly low since crius I will give you just one example that I used to build long time ago Adaptive invul t2s pre-crius these things were in the 2.2m range and were super profitable to build right now no matter how tight you squeeze that index you're going to be building them at loss unless you're t2 bpo owner i suppose.I will find those items you still build at profit and i will crush their margins.Twisted

you try that, i'm going to go build a third t3 amarr factory for our delicious 5% ME but with lower fees
Ssabat Thraxx
DUST Expeditionary Team
Good Sax
#28 - 2014-08-16 06:49:15 UTC
Retar Aveymone wrote:
my margins are so obscenely high i can't even calculate them


I'm so high... I dont even know whats going on... Shocked


\m/ O.o \m/

"You're a freak ..." - Solecist Project
Bydlo Moneymaker
Celestial Machines
#29 - 2014-08-17 17:24:23 UTC
I for one won't extend my subscription for a few months ... maybe the prices will be back up again around christmas. As it is now I can't be really bothered to start the EVE client for the **** poor margins. Too much effort ...
Erik Sokarad
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
#30 - 2014-08-17 22:36:20 UTC
the first trick, is that manufacturing has several margins in the process. ore refines to minerals, minerals craft into things (which may be sub-components themselves). so there is a margin when the miner sells ore, a miner when someone buys the ore, refines it, and sells the minerals, and a margin when manufacturing occurs. some people increase their profit margin by doing several steps of this process on their own.

margins are changing for two reasons- changes to refining and thus supply of minerals (actual ore mining is unaffected), and changes to manufacturing processes (change in minerals required).

because the patch changes multiple margins at once, it is taking longer to stabilize the cost of minerals, and thus the cost of manufacturing, because both supply and demand of those minerals has shifted at the same time. and to make matters worse, a lot of industrialists are simply bad at math resulting in strange prices.

the second trick, is that there is a lot of money to be had if you can just patiently read and understand the market data. the market is currently under pressure to decentralize away from hubs, which means demand for minerals will de-centralize as well. and that means the real money is in hauling product to market in the short run, as more demands shift away from supplies.
Shiloh Templeton
Cheyenne HET Co
#31 - 2014-08-18 01:52:42 UTC
Qmamoto Kansuke wrote:
I used to build long time ago Adaptive invul t2s pre-crius these things were in the 2.2m range and were super profitable to build right now no matter how tight you squeeze that index you're going to be building them at loss unless you're t2 bpo owner i suppose.Twisted
It will be interesting to see if the price drop is due to conversion T2 BPC's, faster throughput on production -- or competition from new manufacturers.

The barrier to entry to the most common T2 items has been so greatly reduced that I wonder if the market isn't impacted from extra supply from new manufacturers then it will at least be impacted by reduced demand because people start building the T2 modules they use.


Dan Seavey Allier
Seavy Acquisitions
#32 - 2014-08-18 16:59:04 UTC

I love it.

The lazy like industrialists who are too reluctant to change, research, and analyze are the ones who will be unsubbing and rage quitting.

This starts freeing up market opertunities for newer less experienced and established players just getting into it.

Working as intended, o.p.


Dan

Honey Never Sleeps. - John Russell
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#33 - 2014-08-18 23:46:48 UTC
I took some losses on Light Neutron Blaster IIs coming into Crius, had not expected them to tank so hard. Underestimated the BPO impact.

But it's all good, I just set 9 jobs that are expected to make 1.3 million ISK per hour, per production line. Would be almost 3m if I had a POS operating at the moment.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com
adriaans
Ankaa.
Nair Al-Zaurak
#34 - 2014-08-20 17:21:53 UTC
Qmamoto Kansuke wrote:
Lucas Kell wrote:
If you believe all the hype from "the usual crowd", half of the highsec industry community quit the game when Crius came out, so the margins should be increasing!

Realistically the margins are just moving about a bit while people swap and change what they are building trying to find a new comfort zone. T2s are going to be a bit funny until people run out of the buffed BPCs that got put out with the expansion.



I hear ya mate, however you just nailed it "until people run out of the buffed BPCs", that's one of the issues, I alone have around 35000 bpcs, and one of my friends has about 98000...yea they are going to run out of bpcs when they are old enough not to be able to lift.Lol



As I recently tested, turns out selling these massive BPC stacks is actually better profit than manufacturing, though even that is going to take me many years to run out...

----True oldschool solo pvp'er---- My latest vid: Insanity IV
pug lei
The Thomas Edwards Taco Tuesday All Stars
#35 - 2014-08-20 17:57:35 UTC
Lady Ayeipsia wrote:
Perhaps you should give the market more time to adjust. Let me give you an example...

I make T2 damage controls. Prepatch, it took 1.25 hours to invent in a POS, 18+ hours to make. Based on my sleep pattern, thst 18 hours meant it was actually a day. So basically, each day I could make 100 DC 2s, limited more by invention.

Now invention was always the bottle neck time wise. So to save my sanity and avoid trips to trade hubs, I would invent in large batches. once I had enough BPCs ready, i would make them. I had a stockpike right before patch. I knew material change were coming, so the wait was planned. The patch hit... Now, instead of 100 mods a day, it takes 4 hours to make 100 mods, and well... Work and sleep hinder Eve life, but still... I can make 300 mods a day now. What would have taken me 12 days is now 4 days.

Guess what, I, like many proceed to mass produce, thinking more mods equals more money. Well... The demand didn't change, but supply sure did. I, and many others, rapidly flood the market (especially since a lot if us held off, drying up the supply, this was why t2 280mm Howie prices rose a ton prepatch). Our flood lowers the market as we compete to sell and get some if thst higher profit. However supply is huge and the market drops.

Also, my bpcs went from -4 ME to much better, meaning more profit per unit if sold at old prices or i can take less profit per and still be good. So more reason for prices to drop.

But wait... Invention times changed. What use to be once every 1.25 hours in a pos is now 4 in a station. This slows me down actually. I could get 4+ invention cycles in a day. Now I get 3 or less. So, once I burn through my existing stock, I (like many others) will actually produce at a slower rate. Prices will bounce back as the demand matches the lower supply. Also, the New bpcs have a lower ME, meaning they cost more.

So basically, you are reacting too soon. We are still in the correction phases. Give it a few months, then see what's happening.
My guess, things will balance out and the profits will be about the same.


It depends on how long it takes. there are literally still Battleships on the market from the insurance scam days.
Julius Cabeki
Huola Industrial Development
#36 - 2014-08-20 18:44:44 UTC
Do people use t2 module production in deep null sec as a way to compress pi and moon materials, and does it have a noticeable impact on market?
Zappity
New Eden Tank Testing Services
#37 - 2014-08-21 09:55:50 UTC
So your plan is to prove to CCP that margins are reducing by reducing margins yourself? Not quite sure that counts as a true consequence of mechanics.

Zappity's Adventures for a taste of lowsec and nullsec.
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