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The Jesters curves..
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DarkAegix
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
#41 - 2011-09-12 06:05:50 UTC
EVE began with 0 players.
There are currently 19k playing, and it's 2am in NYC and 7am in London on a working day.

Time to calculate growth.

19,000 / 0 = Infinite

EVE is growing infinitely fast.
Prince Kobol
#42 - 2011-09-12 06:29:45 UTC
Here are the PCU graphs from Chribba's Site.

PCU Numbers

See for yourself.

From what I can see, the PCU is showning a downward trend over the last year.
RUSROG
Avalanche.
#43 - 2011-09-12 07:34:53 UTC
FEED ME MOAR NUMBERS.

YOUR NUMBERAGE FUELS ME.

GIVE ME MOAR.


---

Folk, there is no point to this thread - if EVE is dying, let it die. Someone will buy it out. And then work on it.

It's profitable.

Besides, throwing graphs around does not help anybody, if these numbers are not interpreted properly, they mean nothing..


That is all.
Malcanis
Vanishing Point.
The Initiative.
#44 - 2011-09-12 08:06:57 UTC
Peter Powers wrote:
Tippia wrote:
It doesn't matter how much you spin it: 2.5% over 30 months is still flat as hell.

i prefer a healthy 2.5% over a boom of 25% with the associated problems on a setup thats not supposed to grow that fast ;)


:facepalm:

Really, when the argument gets to the point where you find yourself saying things as dumb as this rather than just admit your made an error, it's time to retrieve your remaining shreds of credibility by just conceding.

"Just remember later that I warned against any change to jump ranges or fatigue. You earned whats coming."

Grath Telkin, 11.10.2016
Psychophantic
#45 - 2011-09-12 08:54:08 UTC
Malcanis wrote:
Peter Powers wrote:
Tippia wrote:
It doesn't matter how much you spin it: 2.5% over 30 months is still flat as hell.

i prefer a healthy 2.5% over a boom of 25% with the associated problems on a setup thats not supposed to grow that fast ;)

Really, when the argument gets to the point where you find yourself saying things as dumb as this


Yes, I agree, saying that 2.5% growth isn't actually growth is pretty dumb.
Malcanis
Vanishing Point.
The Initiative.
#46 - 2011-09-12 09:01:15 UTC
Psychophantic wrote:
Malcanis wrote:
Peter Powers wrote:
Tippia wrote:
It doesn't matter how much you spin it: 2.5% over 30 months is still flat as hell.

i prefer a healthy 2.5% over a boom of 25% with the associated problems on a setup thats not supposed to grow that fast ;)

Really, when the argument gets to the point where you find yourself saying things as dumb as this


Yes, I agree, saying that 2.5% growth isn't actually growth is pretty dumb.


I do as well, that's why I didn't actually say it. I also think that lying about what people have actually said is even dumber.

0.8% annual growth is as near to flat as makes no difference - especially when the trend this year isn't growth but contraction. It is definitely an unacceptable growth rate when the amount of resources that have been expended on these ill-considered, unwanted, shamefully wasteful expansions (Dominion, Tyrannis, Incarna) is taken into account.

"Just remember later that I warned against any change to jump ranges or fatigue. You earned whats coming."

Grath Telkin, 11.10.2016
Prince Kobol
#47 - 2011-09-12 09:39:24 UTC
Malcanis wrote:
Psychophantic wrote:
Malcanis wrote:
Peter Powers wrote:
Tippia wrote:
It doesn't matter how much you spin it: 2.5% over 30 months is still flat as hell.

i prefer a healthy 2.5% over a boom of 25% with the associated problems on a setup thats not supposed to grow that fast ;)

Really, when the argument gets to the point where you find yourself saying things as dumb as this


Yes, I agree, saying that 2.5% growth isn't actually growth is pretty dumb.


I do as well, that's why I didn't actually say it. I also think that lying about what people have actually said is even dumber.

0.8% annual growth is as near to flat as makes no difference - especially when the trend this year isn't growth but contraction. It is definitely an unacceptable growth rate when the amount of resources that have been expended on these ill-considered, unwanted, shamefully wasteful expansions (Dominion, Tyrannis, Incarna) is taken into account.



Have to agree with malcanis as he makes an excellent point.

When you look at the investments CCP have made, especially with Incarna, seeing the PCU drop is unacceptable and is proof whilst Eve may not be dying, it is in trouble.
Chopper Rollins
hahahlolspycorp
#48 - 2011-09-12 10:51:50 UTC
OH GOD OH GOD OH GOD I'M SO STUPID OH GOD

What is all this nonsense about numbers online, (info available) number of subs (info uh..wat) and CCP profits? (info not shown in any of these threads and probably not available)

These threads are terrible. Just terrible. I got to the bottom of the first page's math analysis and thought 'oh noes three pages of this?'

Please

Goggles. Making me look good. Making you look good.
Psychophantic
#49 - 2011-09-12 10:59:47 UTC
Malcanis wrote:

I do as well, that's why I didn't actually say it. I also think that lying about what people have actually said is even dumber.

You're funny.
Quote:

unacceptable growth rate when the amount of resources that have been expended on these ill-considered, unwanted, shamefully wasteful expansions (Dominion, Tyrannis, Incarna) is taken into account.


Bolded the funny part.

Eve is dying! It's not growing fast enough!
warchyld1
DO.IT
DECOY
#50 - 2011-09-12 12:10:58 UTC
Look for ISK prices bottoming out on the black market, thats when Ccp is really up the creek without a paddle. Farmers represent a good chunk of subscribers and when they can't sell ISK for enough they will simply leave.

But what most people fail to take into account is that this is 2.4 or 2.5 percent growth for an alrady overlevraged company that is hoping to christ that Dust 514 dosn't bomb (which it will imo). At which point the money people that currently hold 2 places on the board of directors start firesaling ssome cool IP and asuper computing cluster.

Subscriber numbers are a tiny part of CCP's problems, and even should they actually fix eve (would be nice) it would be extreamly unlikely to save it, as eve's future relys on 2 other games succeding as well.
Malken
Sleiipniir
#51 - 2011-09-12 12:44:27 UTC
what you should be focusing your questions on to CCP is.

how come that walking in station is so hard to implement?, Earth & Beyond had that from their launch before eve was in beta.
are people at CCP so inept at programming or have they any programmers left?

most likely there are almost 0 programmers working on eve and that the walking in station is just implemented from code used in the other games they have all programmers working on.
so its basically a halfassed codegraft applied to eve.
the walking in the stations isnt even remotely lifelike in any way, ive disabled it as it felt like walking around with a huge stick shoved upp your ***.

incarna is not a expansion by any standards at all, just useless crap tbh.

EvE has been lacking in fixing alot for a very very long time, not even soon™ fits anymore.
it feels more like duke nukem fornever instead on some stuff that has been broken since the dinosaurs walked the earth.

all focus on next patch/"expansion" should be for the people using the game as it was intended ie. space pewpew and other assorted stuff in space.
i want to see a 5mile long patchnotes that adresses the billion screwed up and ignored things for all these years.


☻/ /▌ / \
Perramas
DreddNaut
#52 - 2011-09-12 12:52:18 UTC
2.5 % growth is not enough to keep up with inflation. Here in the USA the inflation rate for May, June and July was 3.6%,I am assuming it was a at least that in the Euro zone. So CCP is in trouble if they do not get at least 3.7% growth for their company to look attractive enough to get a favorable refinance on their loans that are coming due.



Great minds discuss ideas, average minds discuss events, small minds discuss people- Eleanor Roosevelt

Jade Constantine
Jericho Fraction
The Star Fraction
#53 - 2011-09-12 13:15:37 UTC
Peter Powers wrote:

you are indeed totally right with that aspect.
for once, i've been saying for YEARS that i dont need no walking in stations
and that the focus should be on spaceships - however the community of whine,
the same people making posts about how eve is dying now etc.
where the same ones that a year ago, half a year ago etc.
have been bitching about CCP not delivering walking in stations...
if i was to make any wishes about what should be done


Well I was one of those who said "walking in stations? hmmm, fair enough its free" (meaning doesn't impact the development of the core game). And early on thats just what we were promised - that the WoD spin-off stuff would be a free-bonus for us in Eve and NOT the other way round, with Eve development being leeched to feed the external projects.

Yet the longer this has gone on the more evident its been that Incarna is a 20 stone gorilla on the back of Eve thats preventing virtually all other development and the deal has got worse and worse until we get the nefarious NeX dev talking about $1000 dollar jeans and telling us Eve is Incarna and NeX cash shop is here to stay.

"I am altering the deal - pray i don't alter it further"

Quote:
we talk about supercap rebalance
(not the nerf everything to **** way that alot of people are crying for,
more in making shield / armor more even, and adding NEW SHIPS / Weapons
in roles that allow them to efficiently attack supercapitals). we'd talk about adding PVP and PVE content (New Ships, new Modules, more INTERACTIVE stuff todo)


Yep fully agree. I want Exodus scale expansions with entire new ship classes, professions, meaningful iteration on earlier unfinished content and stuff you can genuinely get excited about. Thats why I made the comparison between Exodus and Incarna. The difference in content and feature-density is shocking absolutely shocking.

Quote:
... and this discussion here isn't about that, is it now?


Well, this number thing. Ultimately its a bit up in the air. I'm sure CCP know how many subscriptions they've lost and how the concurrent user level is flatlining. But anecdotally don't we all feel it in Eve at the moment that people are losing interest and quitting in droves? The game feels empty, old corporations are empty and dying, nobody really cares about politics any more and people are frankly bored.

Perhaps that could be ignored IF there was a huge influx of starry-eyed new Incarna recruits drawn to the game by the New Player Experience and CQ and launching out into space in their frigates and cruisers but the thing these statistics definitely show is that is not happening.

People are unsubscribing and quitting, and those who are not quitting yet are marking time and running skill queues or raising an uproar on the forums because they do care about the damage this is doing to their game and community here.

The True Knowledge is that nothing matters that does not matter to you, might does make right and power makes freedom
Xander Riggs
Slamtown Federation
#54 - 2011-09-12 20:14:54 UTC
Malken wrote:
what you should be focusing your questions on to CCP is.

how come that walking in station is so hard to implement?, Earth & Beyond had that from their launch before eve was in beta.
are people at CCP so inept at programming or have they any programmers left?





...because the engine was never designed for it. They don't want to just have us wandering around stations; they want a dynamic environment in which players can interact. You think loading a fleet battle is laggy? Imagine loading a major station hub like Jita with a thousand pilots in the bar alone.

There's a lot more to work out than just 'give legs walk station.'

"A man with a drone-boat has nothing but time on his hands."
Xander Riggs
Slamtown Federation
#55 - 2011-09-12 20:22:34 UTC
Jade Constantine wrote:

Yet the longer this has gone on the more evident its been that Incarna is a 20 stone gorilla on the back of Eve thats preventing virtually all other development and the deal has got worse and worse until we get the nefarious NeX dev talking about $1000 dollar jeans and telling us Eve is Incarna and NeX cash shop is here to stay.

"I am altering the deal - pray i don't alter it further"

[quote]we talk about supercap rebalance
(not the nerf everything to **** way that alot of people are crying for,
more in making shield / armor more even, and adding NEW SHIPS / Weapons
in roles that allow them to efficiently attack supercapitals). we'd talk about adding PVP and PVE content (New Ships, new Modules, more INTERACTIVE stuff todo)

Yep fully agree. I want Exodus scale expansions with entire new ship classes, professions, meaningful iteration on earlier unfinished content and stuff you can genuinely get excited about. Thats why I made the comparison between Exodus and Incarna. The difference in content and feature-density is shocking absolutely shocking.




Eve players are amazingly short sighted, at times. As we speak, CCP is working on something never before done in gaming: A cross platform, cross genre network of players. Dust 514, if even remotely successful, will be groundbreaking for a number of reasons, not the least of which will be the logistic complexity it adds to Eve, and already complex game. Literally, CCP will have created the first complete sci-fi war simulation ever conceived.

In this model, a single unit of tritanium can be followed all the way from the time it spawns in an asteroid to the time it finds it's way into a Gallente marine's gun on the tip of an armor piercing round on literally the other side of the known universe. Everything from troop movements to resource management, ammunition to dried food, sandbags to designer jeans will be available to be produced, bought, sold, and stolen. The vision is absurdly grand and amazingly ambitious.

Meanwhile, the players demand cookies. A handful of new ship hulls and balance tweaks. For being as industrious as Eve players are, we sure do think small-time when it comes to what we want the game to do.

"A man with a drone-boat has nothing but time on his hands."
Baralosus
Caldari Provisions
#56 - 2011-09-12 20:23:06 UTC
Do you guys think The Mittani's ego grew by 2.4%?
Jade Constantine
Jericho Fraction
The Star Fraction
#57 - 2011-09-12 20:49:08 UTC
Xander Riggs wrote:
Eve players are amazingly short sighted, at times. As we speak, CCP is working on something never before done in gaming: A cross platform, cross genre network of players. Dust 514, if even remotely successful, will be groundbreaking for a number of reasons, not the least of which will be the logistic complexity it adds to Eve, and already complex game. Literally, CCP will have created the first complete sci-fi war simulation ever conceived.


And yet I am almost entirely uninterested in Dust 514 because its been revealed its a MicroTransaction Greed model thing from the ground up and CCP have demonstrated through NeX in Eve they don't have the faintest idea how to deliver such a thing in a way that doesn't insult the intelligence of gamers.

Pay to play per round of Dust ammo? No thanks.

At this point I'm extremely anti-Dust because not only does the proposed payment model fairly reek of money-grubbing profiteering but because it has the potential of corrupting the Eve sovereignty system into a pay-to-win obscenity also.

You can say "hell jade you just don't like change!" and I'll reply: "I don't like change where subscription turns to pay to win and damages the integrity of an established game universe no."

Bottom line. I don't like Pay to win for Eve. I don't like it in Dust either. I don't like the NeX shop and I consider all these things regressive and bad for the game.

The True Knowledge is that nothing matters that does not matter to you, might does make right and power makes freedom
Xander Riggs
Slamtown Federation
#58 - 2011-09-12 20:59:43 UTC  |  Edited by: Xander Riggs
Jade Constantine wrote:
Xander Riggs wrote:
Eve players are amazingly short sighted, at times. As we speak, CCP is working on something never before done in gaming: A cross platform, cross genre network of players. Dust 514, if even remotely successful, will be groundbreaking for a number of reasons, not the least of which will be the logistic complexity it adds to Eve, and already complex game. Literally, CCP will have created the first complete sci-fi war simulation ever conceived.


And yet I am almost entirely uninterested in Dust 514 because its been revealed its a MicroTransaction Greed model thing from the ground up and CCP have demonstrated through NeX in Eve they don't have the faintest idea how to deliver such a thing in a way that doesn't insult the intelligence of gamers.

Pay to play per round of Dust ammo? No thanks.

At this point I'm extremely anti-Dust because not only does the proposed payment model fairly reek of money-grubbing profiteering but because it has the potential of corrupting the Eve sovereignty system into a pay-to-win obscenity also.

You can say "hell jade you just don't like change!" and I'll reply: "I don't like change where subscription turns to pay to win and damages the integrity of an established game universe no."

Bottom line. I don't like Pay to win for Eve. I don't like it in Dust either. I don't like the NeX shop and I consider all these things regressive and bad for the game.


Dust 514 will have a system exactly like we have in Eve. Everything you can pay cash for can be bought by simply earning the isk in game. CCP even admits that some Dust players will be spending most of their time playing the market, just we do now in Eve. Dust starts you with free isk and you earn more by playing. It is no different than Eve...except that you start with money already.

It's not 'pay by round' and aside from paying the base fee to download the client, you may very well never spend another cent on it.

Knee jerk reactions just make you look silly. Stop that.

"A man with a drone-boat has nothing but time on his hands."
Jade Constantine
Jericho Fraction
The Star Fraction
#59 - 2011-09-12 21:02:56 UTC
Xander Riggs wrote:

Dust 514 will have a system exactly like we have in Eve. Everything you can pay cash for can be bought by simply earning the isk in game. CCP even admits that some Dust players will be spending most of their time playing the market, just we do now in Eve. Dust starts you with free isk and you earn more by playing. It is no different than Eve...except that you start with money already.
Knee jerk reactions have a habit of making you look silly.


I think you are making a lot of assumptions there, but fair enough, so am I. Ultimately we won't know how they intend to run Dust until it roles out but as I said, judging from the NeX experience I don't have a good feeling about the business model.

The True Knowledge is that nothing matters that does not matter to you, might does make right and power makes freedom
Xander Riggs
Slamtown Federation
#60 - 2011-09-12 21:05:47 UTC
Jade Constantine wrote:
Xander Riggs wrote:

Dust 514 will have a system exactly like we have in Eve. Everything you can pay cash for can be bought by simply earning the isk in game. CCP even admits that some Dust players will be spending most of their time playing the market, just we do now in Eve. Dust starts you with free isk and you earn more by playing. It is no different than Eve...except that you start with money already.
Knee jerk reactions have a habit of making you look silly.


I think you are making a lot of assumptions there, but fair enough, so am I. Ultimately we won't know how they intend to run Dust until it roles out but as I said, judging from the NeX experience I don't have a good feeling about the business model.



http://www.joystiq.com/2011/08/20/heres-how-dust-514s-microtransactions-work-on-your-ps3/

I just paraphrased the article. No assumptions.

"A man with a drone-boat has nothing but time on his hands."