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Poll on honesty in market speculation

First post
Author
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#1 - 2014-06-25 04:26:09 UTC
Curiosity killed the cat - it's also got me intrigued.

Are most of the things you post in this forum about anticipated future prices honest and unbiased, or are they strategic interventions into markets?

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

Rthor
Smugglers Inc.
#2 - 2014-06-25 05:12:57 UTC
I say what I think.
Elizabeth Norn
Nornir Research
Nornir Empire
#3 - 2014-06-25 06:06:59 UTC
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:
Curiosity killed the cat - it's also got me intrigued.

Are most of the things you post in this forum about anticipated future prices honest and unbiased, or are they strategic interventions into markets?


You first ;).
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#4 - 2014-06-25 06:17:39 UTC
Elizabeth Norn wrote:
Sabriz Adoudel wrote:
Curiosity killed the cat - it's also got me intrigued.

Are most of the things you post in this forum about anticipated future prices honest and unbiased, or are they strategic interventions into markets?


You first ;).



80% honest, 10% something random I made up because I'm bored, 10% strategic manipulations.

Is this post one of the 80%?

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

Chris Udinov
Cerberus Defence Services
#5 - 2014-06-25 07:30:11 UTC
Manipulation and honesty usually don't go hand in hand. To effectively manipulate prices you need to manage expectations thus - in some sense - deceive your competition. But I have a feeling you already know this.
Ealon Musque
Capital Chaps
#6 - 2014-06-25 07:40:10 UTC
Assess whether the following sentence can be true or false:

Quote:
This is a lie.
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#7 - 2014-06-25 08:08:14 UTC
Chris Udinov wrote:
Manipulation and honesty usually don't go hand in hand. To effectively manipulate prices you need to manage expectations thus - in some sense - deceive your competition. But I have a feeling you already know this.



Honesty and manipulation are not at all counterposed.

Look at my posts on the impact of Crius on decryptor demand. I *believe* that the MD community underestimates the future potential value of Parity and Symmetry decryptors, and have stated so, completely honestly.

As the owner of several thousand of these decryptors, it's also a market manipulation.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

Isaac Schwartz
Caldari State Venture Capital
#8 - 2014-06-25 09:32:56 UTC
Let's just say, I'm always completely honest about my dishonesty.
Steve Celeste
Doomheim
#9 - 2014-06-25 12:37:03 UTC
I am 100% honest most of the time.

Unfortunately I am also wrong 30% of the time.
mynnna
State War Academy
Caldari State
#10 - 2014-06-26 01:28:17 UTC
I am always completely above the board and honest about things that I post here.

Doesn't mean that I'm not also pushing an agenda, but when I say something's going up or down it's because I actually believe it.

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal

Anne Kingston
a Blueprint Holding Corporation
#11 - 2014-06-26 01:41:48 UTC
Honest is always a solid market policy and a sure way to receive repeat business. Miscommunications, errors, manipulations, and down right misleading information will eventually be exposed for either being a) manipulative or b) wrong. Either result is ultimately unprofitable in a long-term market strategy.
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#12 - 2014-06-26 02:16:54 UTC
mynnna wrote:
I am always completely above the board and honest about things that I post here.

Doesn't mean that I'm not also pushing an agenda, but when I say something's going up or down it's because I actually believe it.


Yep, you can be more effective at pushing an agenda when you do not say anything disprovable with it.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com

Samroski
Middle-Earth
#13 - 2014-06-26 11:26:46 UTC
I'm completely honest when I post (which is occasionally) and there is absolutely no hidden agenda. Unfortunately my attempts at speculation are nearly 100% incorrect.

Any colour you like.

RAW23
#14 - 2014-06-26 12:01:20 UTC  |  Edited by: RAW23
Ealon Musque wrote:
Assess whether the following sentence can be true or false:

Quote:
This is a lie.


One answer that has got quite a bit of traction is that

Quote:
This is a lie.


cannot be assigned any truth-value. You can see this when you try to unpack the sentence. Since 'this' refers to the whole sentence the term can be substituted for the whole sentence thus:

Quote:

(This is a lie) is a lie


But we then find that the self-referential 'this' has found its way back in and needs to be unpacked again to form the sentence with a direct referent:

Quote:

((This is a lie) is a lie) is a lie



It rapidly becomes clear that any attempt to fully unpack a self-referential sentence like this will regress infinitely and it is arguable that a sentence that cannot have its meaning directly expressed without self-reference can have a truth-value.

To quote Wikipedia:

Alfred Tarski diagnosed the paradox as arising only in languages that are "semantically closed", by which he meant a language in which it is possible for one sentence to predicate truth (or falsehood) of another sentence in the same language (or even of itself). To avoid self-contradiction, it is necessary when discussing truth values to envision levels of languages, each of which can predicate truth (or falsehood) only of languages at a lower level. So, when one sentence refers to the truth-value of another, it is semantically higher. The sentence referred to is part of the "object language", while the referring sentence is considered to be a part of a "meta-language" with respect to the object language. It is legitimate for sentences in "languages" higher on the semantic hierarchy to refer to sentences lower in the "language" hierarchy, but not the other way around. This prevents a system from becoming self-referential.

More detailed material here

There are two types of EVE player:

those who believe there are two types of EVE player and those who do not.

RAW23
#15 - 2014-06-26 12:05:41 UTC
On topic

I normally don't post on market issues where I have an interest until I have removed my interest in that market and am just an observer. However, sometimes that is not possible due to long term commitments (the technetium market for quite a while is an example) but in these cases I would typically only respond to other peoples' posts and would be as honest as possible. I certainly wouldn't make things up for my own convenience but I also wouldn't actively draw attention to risks or say things that might cause a drop in a market in which I held a position. I would give a truthful optimistic assessment but one that could be partly incomplete as I would not work actively against my own interests, even though I would also not actively mislead to advance them.

There are two types of EVE player:

those who believe there are two types of EVE player and those who do not.

Elizabeth Norn
Nornir Research
Nornir Empire
#16 - 2014-06-26 15:10:35 UTC
I'm not sure about what I've said in the past to be able say only take me seriously 20% of the time and I don't think I try to intentionally mislead people, except in an obviously silly way such as 'buy all the things', but it's probably good practice to not take me seriously anyway.
Paul VonBel
VonBel
#17 - 2014-06-26 22:41:48 UTC  |  Edited by: Paul VonBel
Posting here and being dishonest is a bad long-term strategy, people soon learn who is pushing agendas and who is talking sense.

PS Buy Hafnium

I want you to buy hafnium because I have just bought a large quantity of it and I believe it will increase in value. How's about that for honesty?

Now you're considering, is it? Or will it because I posted this? Shall I buy because he said so or shall I buy because I think it will? Do I think it will because he said so, or will it because I think so?

HINT: You should only be asking yourself, is this a good investment, and disregard everything I say.

Or, to surmise, don't believe a ******* thing you read here.

But seriously, buy Hafnium.

Are you a market trader? Do you want to chat with other traders? Then join my ingame chat channel: VonBel Trading

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#18 - 2014-06-27 18:43:14 UTC  |  Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha
I post what I think and terribly suck at telling lies so I gave up long time ago.

Only one time I have sort of pushed a market (Mackinaws BPCs) but that was in GD and was to make a fool out of Tippia and that other Ruby Porto guy. Pirate

Even auditors need some evil fun some times Twisted
Felicity Love
Doomheim
#19 - 2014-06-27 21:44:28 UTC  |  Edited by: Felicity Love
I like to help people spend their ISK. It's good for the economy.

Interpret that in any way that comforts you.

P

"EVE is dying." -- The Four Forum Trolls of the Apocalypse.   ( Pick four, any four. They all smell.  )

Loraine Gess
Confedeferate Union of Tax Legalists
#20 - 2014-06-27 23:14:12 UTC
I always post my legitimate analysis, although I may fudge the exact intensity of a move.
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