Science & Industry

Let`s make some calculations ( with fully skilled characters everything lvl 5)

Now coppy time is 54 days after patch it will be 13 days.
All freighters are built from 1 run invention run due to 10 % difference for 1 ME, and chance is 40% ( 42 in theory, but after 2 000 invention for me it below 40 %, i will assume it is 40%).

So u need around 2,5 coppy of Freighter BPO to make one JF.
so it is around 50 coppies to make 20 JF`s.
It is 5 characters coppying and building per month when u count small queue on slots in hs and when u don`t build freighters.

Altogher u need 50 coppies so it is 50 BPO`s.

To achive the same state after patch u will need only 18 BPO`s under coppy all the time in hs station. In outpost 9 BPO`s.
When invention will be changed to positive ME and difference will be only 1% between 8 run and 1 run then u will need only 1,2 BPO........

So as u see from 50 BPO`s constatnly being used in POS u will land into 1,2 in the worst case and 18 at the best without changed to invetion.

Now look at market in Jita:

charons - around 40 per day
Rhea - around 9 per day.

to create Rhea u needed number of BPO`s enough to build 4,5 charons.

And as long as there will be no more BPO`s needed to create base coppy for invention u will get only from that step enough BPO`s to build additoional 40 charons per day.

In summary after changes there WILL BE 2 TIMES MORE BPO`s of freighters then currently needed.


Aproximately around 2 000 freighters BPO`s will be not used anymore and become totally useless.

And freighters BPO cost u 2 b per. Problem is somehow smaller with BS`s bcs number of involved BPO`s is much much smaller but for some industrialists still can exist.


To solve this problem i will suggest:
- a way to repackage BPO
- Let npc station to buy back BPO at 'old' BPO prices ( before patch ages ago) which were 10-15 % lower then currant. From what i remeber charon BPO for example was going for 1,8 b.


Another problem i see in this. In general it was proposed to balance coppy/invention to production time - in crusis this ratio will be far at the edge of illness for T2 bs/freight

Yeah, you make a great point here and I borked this up a bit conceptually by assuming everyone was a production robot instead of a human being. So at a glance and roughly taking into account the affect of skills and labs, we're looking at a 3.5-4.5 hour science time on the new Rank 15.6 modules. The old limit was more like 15 hours or so build time.

The implication here is that there's a range of possibilities for TTM depending on how active the player is.

Old TTMs: A player puts in 2x invention attempts over roughly two hours and installs a build, producing 10x a day.

New TTMs: A player has to put in 2x invention attempts a day over roughly 4 hours to get 10x a day. A player can put in 4x invention attempts and 2x builds over roughly 12 hours to produce 20x units a day.

The opportunity exists to make invention both more appealing to people, building off of Gilbaron's point that 20 hr cycles are pretty damn convenient.

I stand by the concept that if you decrease TTM you'll see an upward force on material prices and a downward force on sale prices. Eventually the margin, or paycheck for the producer, will shrink enough that it hits a "so what" factor where its no longer worth building. This is the magic spot where the effort and reward are enough for someone to play the production game. It's also where the prices gap will stabilize at. In my day to day work, there are maybe 2-6 15.6 rank modules that meet the "so what" factor for me. I expect that if TTM decreases, POS access increases and general manufacturing interest this margin is going to shrink to the point that you'll lose a lot of the potential 'new' manufacturers Krius brings in as they decide there just isn't any isk in the field.

Now on the other hand if you increase TTM you'll see a downward force on mat prices and an upward force on sale prices. Because this increases the pay-check for producers, I expect you would have to severely increase TTM before you out-run the available production force. In the doomsday scenario where you increase TTM too much, the affect would be a significant enough rise in T2 modules to where people thought twice about buying them. Honestly I don't consider that scenario completely awful. I'm not suggesting you pump up TTM through the roof, but if you did you might breathe some relevance back into the T1 module market, or make corporations consider in-house production rather than the market.

Looping back to my suggestion

Use the 15.6 module (off of rank 6 bpo) as a base-line and set the invention to 20hrs like Gilbaron suggested. Set the build time to ~40-44 hours. This allows 10x modules (100x across the standard 10 slots) to be made every two days by a production character who is doing one install a day. The 20 hours, like the recent jump clone reduction, gives some lee-way so that people don't have to get home at the exact same time each day. It doesn't give an advantage to people for engaging in a grindy/painful experience by logging in 8x times a day to do installs. I feel people should be rewarded for effort, but effort in production should be thoughtful planning, not a punishing clickfest.

For smaller items, (crystals/ammo/drones) use the same install cycle and adjust upward the runs on the output T2 BPC. If you want, crank up the mats consumed, but I don't know it will make a huge difference either way.

It appears larger items have already received a TTM extension in general based on others analysis. I don't have the experience or understanding to comment intelligently on items larger than the module market.

Are people really complaining that you suddenly need less BPO's to do the same after crius? Really?? You just got a way to double your production and you are complaining about that?? Its like you got handed a free BPO and then moan that your old bpo isnt worth as much now anymore ><

If you realy want to sell your BPO's im sure there are plenty of new people going into Industry that want your BPO's

Since it is only 7 weeks until Crius is released, isn't it about time for this stuff to migrate into an updated devblog on the changes to the industry changes, as described in earlier devblogs, which were originally supposed to come out with Kronos?

This new "10 releases per year" schedule is going to be tough to get used to... for everyone, I think. :)

I tried to give both sides of this some consideration when I wrote my earlier post. The number that an increased TTM expands is the difference between the price of the materials and the sale of the product. This number has a floor of sorts, below which people stop wanting the job. You get less producers in the field and that keeps the prices in this range. If you look at the T2 module market, it usually doesn't make a lot of difference what you make, everything pays the same. The exception are short little spikes in demand.

What this leads me to believe is that there is a surplus of producers, who given the right motivation may rejoin the production fold.

So what's the effect on a real life module price? I've been using both the Warp Scram II and the Adaptive invul as examples frequently, so I'll take a look at a glance. An adaptive invul costs ~1M to build and sells at ~1.6M as this is written. So the production price is 600k. Meanwhile a Warp Scram costs around 600k to build and sells at ~1M.

When I'm fitting ships, I can say that I honestly don't care whether the warp scram cost 1M or 3M to buy. I'm not super rich, but these decisions just aren't anything that is going to break the bank for an average player. Let's hypothetically say that we break production with these changes by increasing TTM to the point where a warp scram costs 3M to buy at market. The producers in heaven, his profits have quintupled. The buyer is probably not going to rage quit over the price hike. I expect that more people will be inclined to join in production to get a share of the isk there, or even to manufacture their own equipment.

The more I think about it, the more I see TTM as the 'minimum wage' for T2 production. I'll be the first to admit that as a low-level producer with only 6 months or so behind me, I lack a lot of the insight that the oldbies, Devs, and market folk have. It could very well be that there is some horribly game breaking consequence of increasing TTM, but I don't see it. What I do see is an opportunity to make bproduction an option worth bothering with for the many folks who have an interest in this style of gameplay.

In order to discuss ttm implications we need the data on what is currently build, using how many characters, how many lines, how much (active) capacity is actually used and how much potential capacity remains unused by active and potential industrialists.

And even If CCP actually releases that data some serious numbers crunching is required before one could make an educated and good statement. And I'm not talking about some excel files here, but spss/stata or some other professional tools

No but you can sell it, coz plenty of people still want new BPO's and can invest that ISK and the freed up industry slot into a diffrent market.

And there are always people looking to get new BPO's just to have em, **** im one of those :D

Double post, yeah. Didn't want serious stuff in the same post.

Looking at the relationship of current invented BPC ME levels to the proposed new ME levels and how it has been stated that the new levels will accomodate the need for a -2 modifier to ME and the percentage change to efficiency that requires, does this mean that all ME0 BPs are going to require 70% more materials? Or will all BPOs come with a base ME of .... whoops we're off the scale.

Numbers:

Currently an ME-6 invented BPC has 70% waste, assuming base 10% waste. Eliminating negative MEs requires the lowest new ME level of 0 to require 70% more materials than current base levels.

This also puts the base level of invented BPC at ME+2. However, ME+2 is only a 2% difference from ME0, not the 20% difference it is between the current ME-4 and ME-6.

Or are we simply scrapping all that invention waste and saying invented BPCs will all start with ME2, 2% more efficient than the new (current*1.11) base? Because that is a massive reduction in demand for T2 supplies.

components will be adjusted.

This is a reasonable argument. In isolation I'd probably lean towards some method of... I don't want to say reimbursement necessarily, but a way to cash out that investment without taking too much of a haircut would be plausible. We'd have to think through all the consequences of doing so, though, and I can't guarantee where that line of thought would end up yet.