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Dev blog: Researching, the Future

First post First post First post
Author
Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#741 - 2014-05-09 00:13:55 UTC
LHA Tarawa wrote:

However, in this case, the stated goal and initial design indicated they really did not understand the issue.

The complexity of ME research did not come from understanding 10% * 1/2, 10% * 1/3, 10% * 1/4...

The complexity is, was, and will be, in the rounding that multiplying the % by the items needed. Since their initial design did not in any way alter or remover the complexity, I have to assume they simply misunderstood the source of the complexity.

this is so obviously untrue the only appropriate response would get my post eaten by ISD

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.

Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#742 - 2014-05-09 00:37:52 UTC
really, all people need to do is ask themselves, do I believe the guy who says "The complexity of ME research did not come from understanding 10% * 1/2, 10% * 1/3, 10% * 1/4... " (a formula I'm sure 99% of people reading this thread do not know) actually is advocating for newbies who might be confused when they don't get 5% off when their one small rig build doesn't give them back .8 of an armor plate but who will intuitively understand and love...that forumula?

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.

Utremi Fasolasi
La Dolce Vita
#743 - 2014-05-09 01:18:32 UTC
Weaselior wrote:
really, all people need to do is ask themselves, do I believe the guy who says "The complexity of ME research did not come from understanding 10% * 1/2, 10% * 1/3, 10% * 1/4... " (a formula I'm sure 99% of people reading this thread do not know) actually is advocating for newbies who might be confused when they don't get 5% off when their one small rig build doesn't give them back .8 of an armor plate but who will intuitively understand and love...that forumula?


u wot m8
Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#744 - 2014-05-09 01:49:51 UTC
DireNecessity wrote:

Having finally moved on from concerns about the transition (which were mostly due to continuing to think of BPO research as *the* thing), I'm still sad to see the blueprint copy market niche get crushed. Accordingly, I'll again toss the same challenge out to the blueprint copiers, "Can you think of a way to save your niche that isn’t based on nearly unassailable (though hard won) time already played advantage?” If you can’t, your future prospects look rather dim because a market that never ever lets players younger than you compete is suicidal game design and probably won’t get much ongoing support from CCP.

I'm not sure it will be destroyed. Sure, supply is going to zoom up and price will fall - but demand will zoom up as people don't want to use a bpo in their pos (and as they see no reason to buy one given the ample cheap bpos on contract). And bpo-havers can make many more copies.

In some markets where most bpc demand is inelastic (like capital ship bpcs which appear to strictly be for build-your-own people) they may get hosed - but in others they may see hugely increased demand. i would need about nine copy guys for all my component bpos (because I'm not sticking 90 component bpos in a pos to build titans) and might go :effort: and just buy premade bpcs. That is, of course, assuming greyscale lifts the cap (if he doesn't, I'm just building in station because death 2 5-run cap part bpcs)

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.

Seith Kali
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#745 - 2014-05-09 06:52:10 UTC
Weaselior wrote:
really, all people need to do is ask themselves, do I believe the guy who says "The complexity of ME research did not come from understanding 10% * 1/2, 10% * 1/3, 10% * 1/4... " (a formula I'm sure 99% of people reading this thread do not know) actually is advocating for newbies who might be confused when they don't get 5% off when their one small rig build doesn't give them back .8 of an armor plate but who will intuitively understand and love...that forumula?


I, un-ironically, had no idea how it worked until it was going away. I can't be the only one.

Apprentice Goonswarm Economic Warfare Consultant - Drowning in entitlement and privilege. 

Loraine Gess
Confedeferate Union of Tax Legalists
#746 - 2014-05-09 07:32:08 UTC
I can't remember the current ME formula but I CAN remember what to google to pull up Tau's post on the matter



I think that says something
LHA Tarawa
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#747 - 2014-05-09 13:04:51 UTC  |  Edited by: LHA Tarawa
So, up to this point, we've been focused on how the changes will effect newer players, with 4-5x as long to get a BPO to sub 1% waste.

Well..... I hope it didn't slip past anyone, but if I understand correctly, the hacks they "tossed in" over the last couple days in an attempt to make this less complex, just increased the time it takes to get a carrier BPO to "pretty good" from 3 months to 5 years.


OLD:
The round used to happen at the run level, and round closest.

Chimera, base needs are (4, 5, 10, 5, 10, 37, 10, 4, 4, 4, 10, 10, 10) . With no research, the 5s become 6 and the 10s become 11, while the 37 becomes 41 so (4, 6, 11, 6, 11, 41, 11, 4, 4, 4, 11, 11, 11). Total extra was 13. % extra was 13/ 123 = 10.57%.

However, under the old, spend 3 months researching to ME 2 and those dropped to (4,5,10,5,10,38,10,4,4,4,10,10, 10). That is one wasted cap drone bay. So waste is 1/123 or 0.8%.

To get rid of that last 1 wasted drone bay would require ME=7 which was another 10.5 months. Few would bother unless you planned on making copies to sell. Then, the extra research didn't make the BPO sell for much higher price, but it did make it sell faster, meaning you could sell more, meaning more total profit.


NEW:
Round happens after full job calculation, and ALWAYS ROUNDS UP!

At deploy time, the base become the old waste numbers: (4, 6, 11, 6, 11, 41, 11, 4, 4, 4, 11, 11, 11).

ME 2 was 7.5% reduction in waste, which is no longer possible under the new "whole %" so let's go with the low end... 7% reduction.... which will take 19000 seconds * 854 = 188 day base (6 months), but let's say you can still cut 30% off that for skills and POS mod and get it down to 4.5 months.

Now your base numbers are multiplied by .93, then rounded up to get: (4, 6, 11, 6, 11, 39, 11, 4, 4, 4, 11, 11, 11). A whopping reduction of 2 drone bays. 2 / 136 = A change fro 1.5% reduction from the base 136 items needed from a 7% researched BPO.

(AS I said, the complexity has always been in applying the %s to the items needed and determining the rounding inflection points. And their last minute hack to apply at the job level and then round up, simply moves the complexity to manufacturing job start instead of research).

NOW, if I happen to be a mega corp that can crank out carriers in batches, and happen to run 3 chimera in a job, I can get 3 for (12, 17, 31,12,31, 115, 31, 12, 12, 12, 31, 31, 31) which is 378 items from a base 408 = 7.3% reduction.

See, ALL the complexity (always was, is and STILL WILL BE) of applying the % reductions to the items needed and finding the inflection point in the rounding is still there. All this change, breaking STUFF to remove complexity, didn't actually remove any of the complexity. All it did was move the complexity from BPO ME research to manufacturing job start.


Now, back to my main point: To get my chimera "pretty good", if I'm a small corp that runs billion ISK ships one at a time, I need to get those 11s back to the old base of 10 and the 6s back to 5. I'm half in luck. 11 * .91 is 10.01, which is still going to round to 11, but IF I take the BPO to perfect 10% reduction 11 * .9 = 9.9 which will round to 10. I'm only "half in luck" because 6*.9 = 5,4, which is still going to round to 6.

So, instead of 3 months to get to 0,8% waste, I have to go to -10%, which will be 256K second * 854 which is 7 years BASE time, and then if you can reduce that 30% for skills and POS mods is "only" 4 years 10 months. And for that almost 5 years, you're getting (4, 6, 10, 6,10,37,10,4,4,4,10,10,10). (136-125) / 136 = 8% reduction.


The complexity was NEVER in waste = .1/(1+ME). The complexity is, was, and STILL WILL BE from applying the % to the items needed and finding the inflection points in the rounding!



So, again we:
1) Screw over players that spent a lot of time on research because people that spent way less get to catch up in the big conversion.
2) Screw over newer players with WAY longer research times.
3) Remove the ability to research to between whole % waste.
4) Do not remove any of the actual complexity, which has always come from applying the % to the items needed and identifying inflection points in the rounding, we simply move the complexity to manufacturing job start optimal runs.

They didn't understand the problem (complexity was in applying % to items needed and finding inflection point in the round, not in the old formula waste = .1 / (1+ME)).

So, they attacked the wrong thing (waste formula instead of round). In doing so, they broke a lot of stuff (can't research between whole %) which had big implications ( The big round up; the jump from 9% to 10% has always been huge, but in the past it was unnecessar becuase I could do partial %s, but since I won't be able to do partial %s, it iwill be more important to get to perfect).

When it was pointed out that the complexity is in the round not the formula so they dodn't actualy remove any complexity, they slapped in a fix to apply the round at the job level and round up, which simply moved the complexity to manufacturing, AND broke a bunch more stuff, like having to run billion ISK ships in batches.

FAIL!

FAIL on so many levels!


Stop hacking. Stop breaking stuff!!!!!!

Start over.
Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#748 - 2014-05-09 14:16:49 UTC  |  Edited by: Weaselior
LHA Tarawa wrote:

The complexity was NEVER in waste = .1/(1+ME). The complexity is, was, and STILL WILL BE from applying the % to the items needed and finding the inflection points in the rounding!

attention readers: this is the only necessary sentence to read in his entire post

if you think that the formula waste = .1/(1+ME) is simpler and easier for newbies to understand and more intuitive than rounding issues (which really come into play only in capital construction, virtually every other time you're dealing with something so cheap the extra part is a rounding error) you may agree with LHA and may want to read his post

for everyone else, who recognizes that the quoted section is obviously absolutely insane and has no connection to reality, the rest of the post merely elaborates on it

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.

Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#749 - 2014-05-09 14:18:26 UTC
unsuprisingly, no matter how many times LHA points out that fire is wet and water burns, ccp does not take his advice

let us ponder why that is

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.

LHA Tarawa
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#750 - 2014-05-09 15:14:21 UTC  |  Edited by: LHA Tarawa
Weaselior wrote:
(which really come into play only in capital construction, virtually every other time you're dealing with something so cheap the extra part is a rounding error)


And rigs and T2 and POS structure and POS Fuel and.....

It is a LOT more than just capital ships that use inputs in quantities between 4 and 100.

And... let's go with your argument....

1) They broke capital ship manufacturing,
2) They screw people that spent a lot of time, ISK and effort doing high research, because everyone else catches up.
3) They screw new players that will have to research much longer to get sub 1% waste.
4) They broke the ability to research fraction of a %.

Here is the one I'm going to give you
5) They removed only a portion of the complexity (I think none, but I'll accept that some people couldn't do .1/(1+ME).), but some (all) the complexity has been moved from research to selecting optimal batch size at job start (and manufacturing is done WAY more often than research).


Now, even if ME is SOOOOOO complex for new players, it could have been hidden behind the UI easily enough... Or better, multiplied by 100 and turned into research points, with whole %s of waste at 11, 25, 42, 66, 100, 150, 230, 400, 900, perfect = max (items needed - 5)*20 + 1, 0). Divide research time by 100. Divide the RP by 100 in place of the old ME in the formula.
LHA Tarawa
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#751 - 2014-05-09 15:18:24 UTC
Weaselior wrote:
unsuprisingly, no matter how many times LHA points out that fire is wet and water burns, ccp does not take his advice

let us ponder why that is


If there is a flaw in someone data or logic, critics attack those flaws.

When the critics are unable to find a flaw in the argument, they turn to logical fallacy, such as this obvious use of the logical fallacy known as Strawman.

If A, then B.
If not A, then C.
C.
Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#752 - 2014-05-09 15:20:33 UTC
LHA Tarawa wrote:

1) They broke capital ship manufacturing,
2) They screw people that spent a lot of time, ISK and effort doing high research, because everyone else catches up.
3) They screw new players that will have to research much longer to get sub 1$ BPO.
4) They broke the ability to research fraction of a %.

1) nope
2) as discussed repeatedly this is not an artifact of the change you're ranting hysterically about: this is an artifact of the scaling between ME levels in the new system. it is unrelated to if we should have 1% ME or (insert inane formula here). i have discussed that at length in this thread with more sensible people
3) see above
4) great, that was stupid as all hell because you were researching fractions that made no sense and it is great that it got atomized and moved to a clear and easily understandable system

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.

Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#753 - 2014-05-09 15:22:29 UTC
LHA Tarawa wrote:
Weaselior wrote:
unsuprisingly, no matter how many times LHA points out that fire is wet and water burns, ccp does not take his advice

let us ponder why that is


If there is a flaw in someone data or logic, critics attack those flaws.

When the critics are unable to find a flaw in the argument, they turn to logical fallacy, such as this obvious use of the logical fallacy known as Strawman.

If A, then B.
If not A, then C.
C.

i've torpedoed you arguments over and over (sadly ISD felt my obvious scorn was over the line so they've been hidden). that was, in fact, the post right above the one you're replying to

i seperately wrote to mock the "boy it is so clear fire is wet, why isn't ccp listening to me :argh:" comments you keep making

there's a reason you do nothing but repeat the same argument over and over again: its a bad one and can't respond to criticism so you can only hope to win through repetition

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.

Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#754 - 2014-05-09 15:24:09 UTC  |  Edited by: Weaselior
LHA Tarawa wrote:

5) They removed only a portion of the complexity (I think none, but I'll accept that some people couldn't do .1/(1+ME).), but some (all) the complexity has been moved from research to selecting optimal batch size at job start (and manufacturing is done WAY more often than research).

rewarding longer runs is an explicit and intended feature of the changes, as demonstrated in the cost-scaling formula

selecting the proper batch size for your industrial setup is good complexity: figuring out what an inane UI element means is bad complexity

you keep ignoring the difference between the two

LHA Tarawa wrote:

And rigs and T2 and POS structure and POS Fuel and.....


rounding error, rounding error and irrelevant as you can't research, rare edge case but mostly rounding error, made in such huge batches unless you're a crazy person that the issue does not exist

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.

LHA Tarawa
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#755 - 2014-05-09 15:25:53 UTC
I am forced to wonder what the goons are gaining from this obviously flawed re-design of research that is making them so dismissive of its obvious flaws (oh, it broke capital construction, rmoves the ability to partial % research, screws people over, and moves complexity to manufacturing from research.... no problem because .1/(1+ME) is hard.).

Unless they have a ton of ME 10 BPOs that are jumping to perfect, I don't understand their defense of these messed up changes.

LHA Tarawa
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#756 - 2014-05-09 15:29:38 UTC
Weaselior wrote:
rounding error, rounding error and irrelevant as you can't research, rare edge case but mostly rounding error, made in such huge batches unless you're a crazy person that the issue does not exist


I disagree that moving the complexity from research to manufacturing is good, and highly doubt they intended the change to force batch construction of capital ships.

You're rationalizing away obvious, major flaws in the redesign.
Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#757 - 2014-05-09 15:32:22 UTC  |  Edited by: Weaselior
LHA Tarawa wrote:
I am forced to wonder what the goons are gaining from this obviously flawed re-design of research that is making them so dismissive of its obvious flaws (oh, it broke capital construction, rmoves the ability to partial % research, screws people over, and moves complexity to manufacturing from research.... no problem because .1/(1+ME) is hard.).

Unless they have a ton of ME 10 BPOs that are jumping to perfect, I don't understand their defense of these messed up changes.


it's not flawed and every one of your arguments is utter garbage and we enjoy dunking them

everything you cite as a problem is trumped up nonsense: as someone who actually understands industry I know when you're selecting edge cases that are irrelevant vs. relevant issues that come up and you are picking edge cases and in many cases lying about them

you are not smart enough to realize how bad your arguments are, so you just repeat them ad nauseum and complain that people do not understand your genius. i do not say this to flame you, i say this because it explains your posting and why it convinces nobody: anyone sensible would know that trying to support your arguments on the internet by claiming you have a 140 iq and are frequently the smartest person in the room is a sure sign you're neither of those things. a smart person's arguments and posts demonstrate their intelligence beyond dispute: someone backed into asserting baldly they are actually smart clearly has posted so poorly they have no other option

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.

LHA Tarawa
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#758 - 2014-05-09 15:34:48 UTC
Weaselior wrote:
LHA Tarawa wrote:
Weaselior wrote:
unsuprisingly, no matter how many times LHA points out that fire is wet and water burns, ccp does not take his advice

let us ponder why that is


If there is a flaw in someone data or logic, critics attack those flaws.

When the critics are unable to find a flaw in the argument, they turn to logical fallacy, such as this obvious use of the logical fallacy known as Strawman.

If A, then B.
If not A, then C.
C.

i've torpedoed you arguments over and over (sadly ISD felt my obvious scorn was over the line so they've been hidden). that was, in fact, the post right above the one you're replying to

i seperately wrote to mock the "boy it is so clear fire is wet, why isn't ccp listening to me :argh:" comments you keep making

there's a reason you do nothing but repeat the same argument over and over again: its a bad one and can't respond to criticism so you can only hope to win through repetition




We can play this game all day, again.

I point out real flaws. You strawman and ad hominem, then it all gets wiped away by ISD.

Or. perhaps we play another game today,.


You tell me what is so good about the changes that justifies:
Breaking capital ships construction,
Screwing people over,
Moving complexity to manufacturing from research,
Removing the ability to do resarch between whole %s.

Go.


Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#759 - 2014-05-09 15:42:01 UTC
LHA Tarawa wrote:

You tell me what is so good about the changes that justifies:
Breaking capital ships construction,
Screwing people over,
Moving complexity to manufacturing from research,
Removing the ability to do resarch between whole %s.


capital ship construction is fine, despite your repeated lies that it is not. the math may be a little more involved because you have to care about breakpoints but capital ship construction is high-skill high-capital construction and I am fine with it having good complexity. it is certainly not representative of standard industry

to the extent that people are screwed over because they have increased research time compared to grandfathered bpos, that is a problem with the scaling as I have noted repeatedly (and you have repeatedly ignored, because you don't actually care about this issue). anyone with grandfathered bpos is getting a better bpo in return and i have no patience for the argument that they should get a nicer one than someone else because the UI lied to people before. nobody's getting screwed there, they're merely not profiting

the complexity in manufacturing is good complexity - where you must weigh options and make the best choice given the situation. the complexity being removed in research is bad complexity: where you must struggle with a deceptive and crappy UI to figure out what it means but there is only one right answer (so you just go to the out of game tool that gives it to you)

you couldn't do research between 10% and 5% before. this is a trumped-up nonsense whine that is just that you don't like the change. the atomization is much, much better. the scaling has issues that I've pointed out before, but that's issues of scaling not of atomization

all of these dumb arguments you're making have been bashed into the ground already and I've given you all these answers before. you have not been able to rebut them: you just ignore the fact they've been demolished and keep spamming your bad, discredited idea and hope that people will get tired and stop rebutting it

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.

LHA Tarawa
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#760 - 2014-05-09 16:30:33 UTC
Weaselior wrote:

capital ship construction is fine, despite your repeated lies that it is not. the math may be a little more involved because you have to care about breakpoints but capital ship construction is high-skill high-capital construction and I am fine with it having good complexity. it is certainly not representative of standard industry


So, difference of opinion = lie.

I think it is bad that mega corps will get a major advantage over little corps because they can crank out capital ships in batches, while I think that is a bad thing.... so I'm a liar. Got it.

The issue appears to be that we're not speaking the same language, because the version of English that I speak, difference of opinion and lie are not synonymous.

Knowing that we speak different languages will be a big help going forward.


Weaselior wrote:

to the extent that people are screwed over because they have increased research time compared to grandfathered bpos, that is a problem with the scaling as I have noted repeatedly (and you have repeatedly ignored, because you don't actually care about this issue). anyone with grandfathered bpos is getting a better bpo in return and i have no patience for the argument that they should get a nicer one than someone else because the UI lied to people before. nobody's getting screwed there, they're merely not profiting


Here again, we're clearly not speaking the same language. I consider taking away a competitive advantage that people had been using to increase profits is screwing them.

On the other hand, you continue to dismiss the massive time increase to sub-1% waste as "just a scaling thing", but CCP still has not offered any indication they intend to alter the scaling. I do not see how they could alter the scaling to make 0% waste reasonable, without making 1% or less too quick.

What you dismiss as a "scaling thing" is really the result of removing partial % research.


Weaselior wrote:

the complexity in manufacturing is good complexity - where you must weigh options and make the best choice given the situation. the complexity being removed in research is bad complexity: where you must struggle with a deceptive and crappy UI to figure out what it means but there is only one right answer (so you just go to the out of game tool that gives it to you)


I could not disagree more. Research only needed to be done once per BPO, whereas manufacturing is done repeatedly, and BPO research it was the same for everyone, regardless the size of corp/alliance they were in. Now the rounding at the job level will favor those in the largest corporations that can run capital ships in large batches rather than one at a time.

I respect your opinion, but disagree that this is "good" complexity.

Weaselior wrote:

you couldn't do research between 10% and 5% before. this is a trumped-up nonsense whine that is just that you don't like the change. the atomization is much, much better. the scaling has issues that I've pointed out before, but that's issues of scaling not of atomization


Because of the scaling,
In the new system the difference between not being able to do research between 10% and 5% compared to not being able to do fraction of a % between 1% and 0% is a ration of 1.5 hours to 4 2/3rds days (that is for items with multiplier of 1. expanding that ratio to capital it is the difference between a month, and 7 years).

For the old system, it was similar ration... for something like a battleship, the jump for 10% to 5% was 4 days while the jump from 1% to 0% was years.

I think it is far more important to be able to do partial research of steps that take days (or years) than hours (or days).

Then again, I have to remember were speaking different languages, so perhaps in your languages 2 orders of magnitude difference in "trumped up nonsense". Maybe it is just as important to be able to do partial research for things that take days, as it is to be able to do partial research that takes decades.



Weaselior wrote:

all of these dumb arguments you're making


Here, we must be speaking different languages again. In your language, "dumb" must mean the same as "cogent" means in my language.