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Dev blog: The Price of Change

First post First post
Author
Kun'ii Zenya
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#621 - 2014-05-02 03:47:22 UTC
Barton Breau wrote:
Kun'ii Zenya wrote:


I work in the CA energy markets, and that is not the case. It is the least efficient seller needed to clear the market that sets the price. And this is for a good that is highly inelastic (at least in the short run, in the longer run there is more elasticity).

This is also seen in experiments (essentially games...like EVE) where economists try to simulate competitive markets. The result is a Nash equilibrium and again, the least efficient seller necessary to clear the market sets the price.

Those with the most cost effective set up earn economic profits...and it is that potential that invites new entrants to the market, and that it is no longer going to be static will induce people to move around. That latter decision will be factored in as a cost.



This may be true, but this is not what he was arguing, he was arguing that the gain from changing a strategy will be too big, easy and affordable, so that the baseline strategy for the equilibruim changes. There is always a tipping point.

And why would you think mentioning CA energy markets is a good thing? Is like saying "i work at BP, i know something about deep water drilling safety!", which may be true but still not a good tactical move. :)


Because the CA energy marekts, specifically electricity went through a rather recent problem regarding price manipulations...and the solution was to set the price cap at the least efficient (in terms of costs) producer necessary to clear the markets.

That is how markets work. Pure and simple. The price is not set by the most efficient producer, but the least efficient necessary to ensure markets clear.
Kun'ii Zenya
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#622 - 2014-05-02 03:49:24 UTC
LHA Tarawa wrote:
Kun'ii Zenya wrote:

For example, if Nonni becomes that popular, then it will likely have a multiplier of 15% for manufacturing (assuming 15% is the upper bound on this). Then accounting for the system facilities bonus you are looking at about a 7.5% multiplier for manfacturing. Using the abaddon example, that means you'll pay 15 million isk or so to build that BS.


The formula we have seen does not tell us where the max will happen.

You assume they will max before they apply the station multiplier. I hope they do the max after. So, If nonni becomes the place to do manufacturing, and and ends up with 10% of all manufacturing in the game... 31%. *

Do they max that to 15%, then apply the discount to drop it to 7%?
Do they apply the discount dropping it to about 15%, then apply the max?


You assume the first. I hope for the latter.


* hyperbole for example. I don't think any one system could really account for 10% of all (any one kind) of activity.


Which is why in the next part of my post I noted if everyone moves to Nonni then the fraction of global job hours would become 1. Which would indicate moving to the nearest system that has a manufacturing station would make huge amounts of sense and give a huge cost advantage.

The idea that everyone would move to one system is just not going to happen. Not in the long run.
Odoya
Aeon Abraxas
#623 - 2014-05-02 07:46:39 UTC  |  Edited by: Odoya
MyHaula wrote:
I may be and most likely am missing the big picture here. But as an established industrialist I feel like I'm getting the shaft from these changes.

Here are a few examples:

* I have gone through the trouble of setting up a corp with standings to anchor a POS in high sec. That's now free

* I will now need to either move my BPOs from the manufacturing station they're in, or put them at risk in the POS to research and copy them. Where as now I do not.

* My per job costs look like they will be going up tremendously for all activities, copying, research, manufacturing
(snipped)


The interesting part about this fee increase is that it is inflation. Whatever the cost before the rollout, the markup is an increase that simply put is isk leaving the game. The greater the frequency of the jobs, the faster isk is destroyed (doesnt go from player to player). Unlike losing a ship or risking an asset, this is simply the cost to "tread water". What does this look like if someone produces a t2 ship all the way down a distribution chain? That loss of isk is significant especially because no game value is exchanged for it.

It seems this along with the lower barrier to entering the competitive market space (losing the sunk effort for grinding standings is very discouraging), those who attempt to produce based on short term relative market changes are at an increased disadvantage over those who work in longer cycles based on absolute changes. The logic of constantly producing goods to increase a wallet balance by a relative R.O.I. goes upside down because of the arbitrary inflation.
Dirty Wrench
Royal Amarr Institute
Amarr Empire
#624 - 2014-05-02 11:31:15 UTC  |  Edited by: Dirty Wrench
How much will it cost to reskin a ship?

Doesn't this require a manufacturing run?

Let me be more specific the blueprints you get from the NEX store that change the paintjob your ship require the use of manufacturing slot.

So if cost is based on the value of the sold item then I forsee a large price rise in the cost of a custom paint job ship that has exactly the same stats as a standard ship.

Um......does anyone use these ships anyway ?
LHA Tarawa
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#625 - 2014-05-02 12:49:08 UTC
Dirty Wrench wrote:
How much will it cost to reskin a ship?

Doesn't this require a manufacturing run?

Let me be more specific the blueprints you get from the NEX store that change the paintjob your ship require the use of manufacturing slot.

So if cost is based on the value of the sold item then I forsee a large price rise in the cost of a custom paint job ship that has exactly the same stats as a standard ship.

Um......does anyone use these ships anyway ?



1) LOL They broke NEX store.

2) I hope noone uses them.
Korthan Doshu
Doomheim
#626 - 2014-05-02 13:32:41 UTC
LHA Tarawa wrote:
Dirty Wrench wrote:
How much will it cost to reskin a ship?

Doesn't this require a manufacturing run?

Let me be more specific the blueprints you get from the NEX store that change the paintjob your ship require the use of manufacturing slot.

So if cost is based on the value of the sold item then I forsee a large price rise in the cost of a custom paint job ship that has exactly the same stats as a standard ship.

Um......does anyone use these ships anyway ?



1) LOL They broke NEX store.

2) I hope noone uses them.


Let me preempt the blue post:

"We're aware of this issue, but we'll fix it with a coming overhaul of the whole paintjob system."
Darin Vanar
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#627 - 2014-05-02 18:36:31 UTC  |  Edited by: Darin Vanar
Has anyone considered what will happen when we have major shocks to the system, such as the destruction of 164 titans, or other major battles that leads into the depletion of a major number of ships, or a type of ship?

Depending how agile the ship pricing system will be, you could end up with an insanely expensive production cost before you've even sent the item to market. And those who build later, will pay an even higher price as the items roll out at increasingly higher prices to fill the void in supply. But how can the system correctly interpret what that void is? How will it deal with that temporary, artificial pricing?

Then think about the ways to bring the price back down to 'normal' values. How will the system interpret that? Someone is going to have to tank major losses in order to have the prices stabilize. But that could take months, before (if even) the prices stabilize to their previous values.

Whatever they have planned might work for factional warfare, but that's because factional warfare is supported by the rest of EVE. People decide what, and how much to risk. Sometimes, you just don't have a choice. As major battles have shown, constant reinforcement leads to massive destruction because you just simply have to defend to the last if your home system is attacked.

Make that system global, (a system that as far as I am aware, has not been tested against major shocks), then add PLEX into the mix and well.... We are in for fun times ahead.
LHA Tarawa
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#628 - 2014-05-02 21:11:52 UTC  |  Edited by: LHA Tarawa
Darin Vanar wrote:
Has anyone considered what will happen when we have major shocks to the system, such as the destruction of 164 titans, or other major battles that leads into the depletion of a major number of ships, or a type of ship?

Depending how agile the ship pricing system will be, you could end up with an insanely expensive production cost before you've even sent the item to market. And those who build later, will pay an even higher price as the items roll out at increasingly higher prices to fill the void in supply. But how can the system correctly interpret what that void is? How will it deal with that temporary, artificial pricing?

Then think about the ways to bring the price back down to 'normal' values. How will the system interpret that? Someone is going to have to tank major losses in order to have the prices stabilize. But that could take months, before (if even) the prices stabilize to their previous values.

Whatever they have planned might work for factional warfare, but that's because factional warfare is supported by the rest of EVE. People decide what, and how much to risk. Sometimes, you just don't have a choice. As major battles have shown, constant reinforcement leads to massive destruction because you just simply have to defend to the last if your home system is attacked.

Make that system global, (a system that as far as I am aware, has not been tested against major shocks), then add PLEX into the mix and well.... We are in for fun times ahead.


Titans are not sold on the market, so CCP must have a different mechanism for pricing them (like minerals needed to build * x%)

We saw no huge jump in prices after the huge battle.

The fees are such a tiny part of total cost, and each cycle only applies to higher fees to the fees, that the change in fees quickly becomes a rounding error.

Hypothetical: Mineral prices double. BS jumps 100% from 100 million to 200 million. "Cost" to start build job leaps from 5 million to 10 million. The 5 million extra cost hits ship and it jumps from 200 million to 205 million. Then the cost to build bumps from 10 million to 10.25 million. The 250K hits the market and the BS jumps to 205.25... The cost jumps to 10.2625 million.

Bringing the price of minerals back down. Price of ship falls from 205.2625 to 105.2625. Cost to install build job falls from 10.2625 to 5.2625.... Price of ship falls to 100.26.... Oh, you get the point.
Dirty Wrench
Royal Amarr Institute
Amarr Empire
#629 - 2014-05-03 05:47:43 UTC
I believe the price won't alter much as it's average over the last 28 days. So short sharp spikes may not have that big an impact in the cost of manufacturing the item.

However if you can nudge that 28 day average up a bit constantly then positive feedback will start to kick in and manufacture costs will just constantly spiral upwards causing sale price to go up and therefore manufacturing costs and so on.

That assumes people don't sell at a loss which isn't always a good assumption to make and that all the items manufactured are actually sold.
Aluka 7th
#630 - 2014-05-03 06:20:31 UTC
So can someone confirm that new summer expansion will be deployed on 3. June?
I thought summer is the period from the summer solstice (usually 20 or 21 June in the Northern Hemisphere) to the autumn equinox.
Uncle Shrimpa
Lap Dancers
Brothers of Tangra
#631 - 2014-05-03 09:34:47 UTC
Aluka 7th wrote:
So can someone confirm that new summer expansion will be deployed on 3. June?
I thought summer is the period from the summer solstice (usually 20 or 21 June in the Northern Hemisphere) to the autumn equinox.


2013 June 3rd
2014 - scheduled for June 3rd - read the newest devblog by Fozzie, says it in the first sentence

CCP Greyscale -Yup, we have data on what happens currently, but we're expecting those use patterns to change substantially when this release. There's a degree of "suck it and see" happening here :)

Aleq Alexandrea
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#632 - 2014-05-03 10:02:38 UTC
I wonder does CCP really playing this game, after seeing this industrial updates coming in summer.

I believe many commenters here are never get involved in industy before.

somebody said finding low cost stsyems?

i can hear your voice from future which is cursing CCP while moving ur milion m3 stuff from system to sysytem just to make %5 profit from what you construct. Ah u forget the refining update too i would reduce this to 1%

well done CCP it looks like im going to stop paying for my industrial account in this summer. You totally messsed it up...
And it looks like i will stop paying for my main account too after getting bore from that so much boring missions.

many of you get excited about updates. It futures much more complicated stuff than before which we love in this game. However we will see how people get lost 1 by 1

remember my post when you are cursing stupid marketers who will greately cut your profits which has been a huge efford to achieve and make.

remember my post when you cannot find a good fights while you roaming with your friends
Korthan Doshu
Doomheim
#633 - 2014-05-03 14:40:39 UTC
Aleq Alexandrea wrote:
I wonder does CCP really playing this game, after seeing this industrial updates coming in summer.

I believe many commenters here are never get involved in industy before.

somebody said finding low cost stsyems?

i can hear your voice from future which is cursing CCP while moving ur milion m3 stuff from system to sysytem just to make %5 profit from what you construct. Ah u forget the refining update too i would reduce this to 1%

well done CCP it looks like im going to stop paying for my industrial account in this summer. You totally messsed it up...
And it looks like i will stop paying for my main account too after getting bore from that so much boring missions.

many of you get excited about updates. It futures much more complicated stuff than before which we love in this game. However we will see how people get lost 1 by 1

remember my post when you are cursing stupid marketers who will greately cut your profits which has been a huge efford to achieve and make.

remember my post when you cannot find a good fights while you roaming with your friends


1. People have already complained that many industrials won't want to move much after they set up in a system. That's not lost on anybody. That just highlights the importance of wisely choosing an initial system, and it also highlights the opportunity for leaner industrialists to have more flexibility.

2. Why would reprocessing reduce margins from 5% to 1%? If all of your profit margin comes from reprocessing, all I can say is that you're doing it wrong.

3. Many people are excited? There has been a huge amount of criticism.

4. Why would this update allow station traders bigger cuts of the profits, exactly? I mean it seems possible, but I'm ears on a concrete theory for that.

5. This will stop fights from happening on roams? Please.
Dave stark
#634 - 2014-05-03 14:43:36 UTC
ccp are unwilling to start a power creep with ships, and don't hesitate to nerf as well as buff.

however, they seem adamant about flooding eve with minerals by continually adding more and more minerals to ores and creating... a power creep.
have ccp considered removing minerals from ore, rather than flooding the game with minerals?
Korthan Doshu
Doomheim
#635 - 2014-05-03 15:25:06 UTC
Dave Stark wrote:
ccp are unwilling to start a power creep with ships, and don't hesitate to nerf as well as buff.

however, they seem adamant about flooding eve with minerals by continually adding more and more minerals to ores and creating... a power creep.
have ccp considered removing minerals from ore, rather than flooding the game with minerals?


Has Dave Stark considered posting in the relevant thread, rather than flooding this thread with irrelevant posts?

https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=341290&find=unread
Dave stark
#636 - 2014-05-03 15:32:00 UTC
Korthan Doshu wrote:
Dave Stark wrote:
ccp are unwilling to start a power creep with ships, and don't hesitate to nerf as well as buff.

however, they seem adamant about flooding eve with minerals by continually adding more and more minerals to ores and creating... a power creep.
have ccp considered removing minerals from ore, rather than flooding the game with minerals?


Has Dave Stark considered posting in the relevant thread, rather than flooding this thread with irrelevant posts?

https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=341290&find=unread


thanks, didn't realise i'd ended up posting in the wrong thread.
Odoya
Aeon Abraxas
#637 - 2014-05-04 08:38:42 UTC
Aleq Alexandrea wrote:
I wonder does CCP really playing this game, after seeing this industrial updates coming in summer.

I believe many commenters here are never get involved in industy before.

somebody said finding low cost stsyems?

i can hear your voice from future which is cursing CCP while moving ur milion m3 stuff from system to sysytem just to make %5 profit from what you construct. Ah u forget the refining update too i would reduce this to 1%

well done CCP it looks like im going to stop paying for my industrial account in this summer. You totally messsed it up...
And it looks like i will stop paying for my main account too after getting bore from that so much boring missions.

many of you get excited about updates. It futures much more complicated stuff than before which we love in this game. However we will see how people get lost 1 by 1

remember my post when you are cursing stupid marketers who will greately cut your profits which has been a huge efford to achieve and make.

remember my post when you cannot find a good fights while you roaming with your friends


If not the details, I certainly empathize with the sense of frustration. Publications and research out of Harvard indicate it is less expensive to keep an existing customer happy than it is to acquire a new customer. This business truth brings to mind the question of how one measures success for a series of changes such as these, especially because as someone else observed in this thread, some of the changes appear to be trying to solve problems that does not exist? I am down to one paid account from my original four after the scan probe UI bug forced me out of WH. Change for change's sake, especially where discretionary income is involved, literally profits from a justification concerned with user satisfaction.

Some of these changes actually remove incentives to maintain play continuity too. For example, it seems like having a consistently fueled pos with an uninterrupted subscription seems to be less significant now because having a high sec pos will have less value too. Again, is the measure of success here one that involves subscription retention, new accounts with shorter retention cycles, an interesting statistical model, or ???
Korthan Doshu
Doomheim
#638 - 2014-05-04 14:10:57 UTC
"Odoya" wrote:

If not the details, I certainly empathize with the sense of frustration. Publications and research out of Harvard indicate it is less expensive to keep an existing customer happy than it is to acquire a new customer. This business truth brings to mind the question of how one measures success for a series of changes such as these, especially because as someone else observed in this thread, some of the changes appear to be trying to solve problems that does not exist? I am down to one paid account from my original four after the scan probe UI bug forced me out of WH. Change for change's sake, especially where discretionary income is involved, literally profits from a justification concerned with user satisfaction.

Some of these changes actually remove incentives to maintain play continuity too. For example, it seems like having a consistently fueled pos with an uninterrupted subscription seems to be less significant now because having a high sec pos will have less value too. Again, is the measure of success here one that involves subscription retention, new accounts with shorter retention cycles, an interesting statistical model, or ???


Pretty much what Eyjog said at Fanfest (watched on stream) was that industry was too prosperous and stable in EVE, so they wanted to shake things up. I **** you not.
Corraidhin Farsaidh
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#639 - 2014-05-04 16:15:54 UTC
Korthan Doshu wrote:


Pretty much what Eyjog said at Fanfest (watched on stream) was that industry was too prosperous and stable in EVE, so they wanted to shake things up. I **** you not.


Couldn't the same be said of the large nullsec groups? The ones that will have perfect control over their new industrial advantages and will ummmmm make even more profitable and stable industry under far fewer peoples control?...Seems entirely fair, knacker an area of the game and give the benefits to those already in a position to exploit them
Niko Lorenzio
United Eve Directorate
#640 - 2014-05-04 21:15:07 UTC  |  Edited by: Niko Lorenzio
CCP Greyscale wrote:

We are totally open to suggestions for what to do with starbases as they relate to industry. In particular, if anyone who does starbase work can spend a few minutes outlining the *simplest* changes they think would be sufficient to keep starbases in a reasonable place for this release, we're very interested in hearing them. Yes, we know "throw it out and start over" would be great, but we're not getting that done between now and the summer release, no matter how much we'd like to.


Hmmm... I thought of one! Allow us to use starbases remotely with the BPO/BPCs stored at a station!

The CSM XI Election are now open until March 25th, 2016. Consider Niko Lorenzio for CSM XI.

CSM matters, your voice matters, your vote matters!