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Dev Blog: Team Up: Industry Work Teams

First post First post First post
Author
Volar Kang
Kang Industrial
#561 - 2014-05-01 18:00:36 UTC
So highsec POS's are going away after the change... We can build cheaper in stations a few jumps from trade hubs AND now we will have to follow the teams to get the best manufacturing. Is there going to be any reason to have a highsec POS after these changes besides the whopping 5% reduction in manufacturing costs?
Green Gambit
Blue Republic
RvB - BLUE Republic
#562 - 2014-05-01 18:04:01 UTC
AFK Hauler wrote:
You missed that word "excellent" in front of profits in my post...


If you care to quantify what "excellent profits for 24 days of a 28 day bonus" actually means I can re-work the example.

However, I'll have an attempt at quantifying with some numbers based on what I've seen in the devblogs (with apologises in advance, for missing something as as I'm doing this off the top of my head.)

The best bonuses from teams are being proposed as a 7.5% reduction in build-costs.

You're talking about an increase in build-cost over 17 days going from "excellent profits" to "market value". Now the worst-case build-cost is going to start at around 15% of item value, and the best is practically nothing (even in high-sec). Realistically this is highly unlikely, but let's assume that you're starting with a best-case system, and it changes to the worst case the next day. The system works on a 28-day rolling average, so after 17 days you're just past half-way from seeing the full effect.

So you're talking about a worst case 9% swing in overall cost in the 17 days.

If that 9% swing is taking your cost to market value, that means that your "excellent" profits couldn't have been more than 9% gross. If you take the team you bid for out of the equation, you were running at less than 1% gross before you bid for the team.

That worst-case though is extremely unlikely. Are you really going to make your system the busiest manufacturing hub just from a bonus to 1 (of a hundred types of) product. An awful lot of manufacturers aren't going move operations just for a bonus, and even then it's going to take some days for the move to happen.

More realistically you're looking at a 1% or 2% swing in costs. Which makes your "excellent" profits only 2% of gross. And means that the product is actually a 5.5% loss *before* you bid for the team.

This isn't looking like a great opportunity to me...
Green Gambit
Blue Republic
RvB - BLUE Republic
#563 - 2014-05-01 18:10:09 UTC
Volar Kang wrote:
So highsec POS's are going away after the change... We can build cheaper in stations a few jumps from trade hubs AND now we will have to follow the teams to get the best manufacturing. Is there going to be any reason to have a highsec POS after these changes besides the whopping 5% reduction in manufacturing costs?


1) Follow the teams for at best a 7.5% reduction in manufacturing costs - if there's a team available with the bonus. You may not be able to access such a good team, and may have to settle for a smaller team bonus. On top of that you've got time/costs of moving manufacturing operations every 28 days.

2) Setup a POS for a 5% reduction in manufacturing costs. Add in fuel-costs etc. However you've got a more stable base of operations.

That's actually making it look a closer call than you're making out...
Banko Mato
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
#564 - 2014-05-01 18:15:26 UTC
Green Gambit wrote:
[quote=AFK Hauler]...So you're talking about a worst case 9% swing in overall cost in the 17 days....


Might again be worth to note, that for most T2 products those numbers mean next to nothing, since they consume too few of each input material besides morphite for such a reduction to have any impact, as reduction of input is subject to rounding.
Volar Kang
Kang Industrial
#565 - 2014-05-01 18:21:38 UTC
So a large null alliance can pick a particular region and post products at extremely low costs to drive the cost of industry down? What is to stop an alliance from creating a region like this and telling members not to buy there since the items are only there to bring the cost of industry down?

Am I reading the blog post wrong? Is all industry costs now tied to item cost in the region?
Abla Tive
#566 - 2014-05-01 18:45:30 UTC  |  Edited by: Abla Tive
Barriers to entry are the most important thing for industrialists.
Sharks are on the right side of a barrier and use it to sneer at the chumps who stupidly sell at a loss.
The classic trope "ore I mine myself is free" is an example sneer of a shark to a chump.

This new dynamic industrial landscape of teams and variable costs will create a new and large barrier to entry.
Those who dedicate the time and tools to understanding it will have an insurmountable
advantage to the casual player who doesn't.

As being a chump is not fun, I foresee a selection process whereby we will have fewer but busier industrialists.

I have a life, so I rate myself as a chump.

Luckily, the ore I mine myself is free (to me) and sufficient to keep me in bullets, beans and boats.

I'll likely tune in a few months after go-live to see if there is an economic ecological niche for someone like me.
AFK Hauler
State War Academy
#567 - 2014-05-01 18:45:46 UTC
Green Gambit wrote:


If you care to quantify what "excellent profits for 24 days of a 28 day bonus" actually means I can re-work the example.

However, I'll have an attempt at quantifying with some numbers based on what I've seen in the devblogs (with apologises in advance, for missing something as as I'm doing this off the top of my head.)

The best bonuses from teams are being proposed as a 7.5% reduction in build-costs.

You're talking about an increase in build-cost over 17 days going from "excellent profits" to "market value". Now the worst-case build-cost is going to start at around 15% of item value, and the best is practically nothing (even in high-sec). Realistically this is highly unlikely, but let's assume that you're starting with a best-case system, and it changes to the worst case the next day. The system works on a 28-day rolling average, so after 17 days you're just past half-way from seeing the full effect.

So you're talking about a worst case 9% swing in overall cost in the 17 days.

If that 9% swing is taking your cost to market value, that means that your "excellent" profits couldn't have been more than 9% gross. If you take the team you bid for out of the equation, you were running at less than 1% gross before you bid for the team.

That worst-case though is extremely unlikely. Are you really going to make your system the busiest manufacturing hub just from a bonus to 1 (of a hundred types of) product. An awful lot of manufacturers aren't going move operations just for a bonus, and even then it's going to take some days for the move to happen.

More realistically you're looking at a 1% or 2% swing in costs. Which makes your "excellent" profits only 2% of gross. And means that the product is actually a 5.5% loss *before* you bid for the team.

This isn't looking like a great opportunity to me...



You are starting to see the unmanageable effect that this new system will bring to manufacturing. The rolling average can swing to a higher cost once spikes in the system get calculated for 30% of the total average. A really low value is more influenced by a high value than the opposite. High load swings in the system for manufacturing can (and I say is most likely) significantly change the 28 day rolling average in as little as 10 days.

I'm not sure where you are getting your numbers for a 1-2% swing in costs on a hypothetical example. However, if you feel confident in calculating my costs and profits from a rolling average that has intended daily adjustments and changing base manufacturing costs, then you are better than me at forecasting profits on a dynamic model using a hypothetical example.
Nlex
Domini Canium
#568 - 2014-05-01 19:09:09 UTC
1. Calling the blog "Industry work teams", and not making it about ways to make an alt corp or several not be the end-all-be-all way of doing industry in EVE. There were numerous posts in the forum thread about your industry survey decrying security and trust issues at managing industry with more than one person behind the characters. How it's a virtual russian roulette unless you know your co-operators in-person. Yet you do nothing about that, not about corp roles, not about POS roles/permissions.

2. On the first glance, it looks like an actual lore nod. On the second, it isn't. Mechanics of acquiring and working those "teams" are not lore friendly at all.
- There's enough of Inferno Drug to produce 576 "specialists" a day, yet none of capsuleers has access to making or distributing it, when it is exactly capsuleers who drive the "harvesting" of WH space.
- These "teams" transport themselves instantly to any system in New Eden, can take on unlimited number of jobs in an unlimited number of facilities at any given moment, yet they somehow are restricted to only operating within one system at a time. Blueprints (data) have to be transported to each facility separately, yet these guys (physical entities) are omnipresent.

3. This part: "If no bids were made on the team, the team retires immediately at the conclusion of the auction." Shot behind the barn?
That's just too sad.

4. This series of devblogs outlines one important change that'll come in summer expansion. Everything will cost more. Not because items became better, not because demand rose, but because CCP introduced more NPC taxes (where previously there were none), which to my present knowledge are not mitigated by NPC standings or character skills.
Volar Kang
Kang Industrial
#569 - 2014-05-01 19:09:40 UTC  |  Edited by: Volar Kang
Green Gambit wrote:
Volar Kang wrote:
So highsec POS's are going away after the change... We can build cheaper in stations a few jumps from trade hubs AND now we will have to follow the teams to get the best manufacturing. Is there going to be any reason to have a highsec POS after these changes besides the whopping 5% reduction in manufacturing costs?


1) Follow the teams for at best a 7.5% reduction in manufacturing costs - if there's a team available with the bonus. You may not be able to access such a good team, and may have to settle for a smaller team bonus. On top of that you've got time/costs of moving manufacturing operations every 28 days.

2) Setup a POS for a 5% reduction in manufacturing costs. Add in fuel-costs etc. However you've got a more stable base of operations.

That's actually making it look a closer call than you're making out...



You are not looking at all the factors. Anyone can now get as many slots as they need/have skills for at a station. The main reason for High-Sec POS's was to get slots. The one thing supposed to limit slots is the scaling of the slot price however CCP has said:

"The teams thus act as a counter-balance to the cost scaling – the presence of a good team can offset the increased cost in operating in an active system."

So using teams can remove a lot of the new scaling cost. My point is... Why would anyone want a POS where they have to buy/make fuel at 180 mill a month (medium POS), risk BPO originals in a POS for invention (you cant copy from a BPC), have to log in everyday to check for wardecs, haul ice and buy charters when it can ALL be done in a station for a lower cost.

You can say the 5% reduced manufacturing cost of a POS but you would have to manufacture over three trillion worth of product just to save 150 million in fuel cost. There are not many players out there producing those kinds of numbers from a single POS in one months time. The result of these changes will be a reduced number of POS's and migration of industry to other highsec systems away from the trade hubs. If I do my industry 12 jumps from Dodixie where I dont have many people using/scaling up the cost of slots, my total production costs will be much lower than what they would be with a POS AND with the copy time reduction, I will be able to produce at least three times more product now than I am able to today.

Anyone currently using a highsec POS better be scouting out some remote systems to move to and be ready to test pricing in those systems when the change comes or I will be crushing them in price with my new reduced costs. I also recommend anyone hoarding ice to sell that stuff before the changes as I see the need for ice to go down considerably a few months after the changes when most people realize that highsec POS's are now obsolete.

Edit: I forgot to mention there is also a new tax going into effect on POS jobs so they will no longer be free.
Green Gambit
Blue Republic
RvB - BLUE Republic
#570 - 2014-05-01 19:41:47 UTC
AFK Hauler wrote:

You are starting to see the unmanageable effect that this new system will bring to manufacturing. The rolling average can swing to a higher cost once spikes in the system get calculated for 30% of the total average. A really low value is more influenced by a high value than the opposite. High load swings in the system for manufacturing can (and I say is most likely) significantly change the 28 day rolling average in as little as 10 days.

I'm not sure where you alre getting your numbers for a 1-2% swing in costs on a hypothetical example. However, if you feel confident in calculating my costs and profits from a rolling average that has intended daily adjustments and changing base manufacturing costs, then you are better than me at forecasting profits on a dynamic model using a hypothetical example.


Huh? Where are you inventing a 30% swing from? Devs have already said that on go-live day, the busiest manufacturing system is 15% higher than the quietest. It's likely that given a little time after the release that swing will be reduced.

So assuming that your system goes from the quietest place in New Eden, to the biggest manufacturing hub overnight. We're talking about everybofy who bases out of Nonni moving to some back-water system. On day one you'll see 1/28th of the 15% swing, day two 2/28th etc. So on Day 10 you're going to see just over a third - 5% swing.

Like I said in my first post though - these are theoretical maximums, you're not going to move manufacturing around that much even if you win the best team available in the game.

And that's why I'm talking about 1-2%. I'd be surprised if you saw a tenth of the effect that you're talking about - and actually thinking about this a little more even if you moved a tenth of the industry from the busiest system in Eve to the quietest system in Eve, the way the formula actually works means that you're talking much less than a percent swing in price in a 17-day period.
Green Gambit
Blue Republic
RvB - BLUE Republic
#571 - 2014-05-01 20:03:06 UTC
Volar Kang wrote:
Why would anyone want a POS where they have to buy/make fuel at 180 mill a month (medium POS)


Why a medium POS for a bit of manufacturing? You were talking about chasing teams around the galaxy - is moving your entire base of operations every month more cost effective than the POS fuel cost?

Volar Kang wrote:
risk BPO originals in a POS for invention (you cant copy from a BPC)


Why do I have to do invention in my manufacturing POS?

In fact there seems to be a recurring theme about doing invention AND manufacturing in here - did I miss something about blueprints that you invent yourself being free?

Quote:
If I do my industry 12 jumps from Dodixie where I dont have many people using/scaling up the cost of slots, my total production costs will be much lower than what they would be with a POS AND with the copy time reduction, I will be able to produce at least three times more product


So that's 10m ISK per frighter-load to take it to market. I can see a system 1-jump from Dodixie where there is no competition for station-slots. Which comes out at 2m ISK per freighter-load to take it to market (well a little more actually as I'd have to do it myself rather than offload it to red-frog.)

Then maybe I could get a low-value team into my system, and reap the benefits without allowing half of Eve to be able to jump on the band-wagon.

Oooh! Choices, choices, choices...
Dr Cedric
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#572 - 2014-05-01 20:13:05 UTC
Haven't read every post, so forgive me if its already been suggested. I think a better way of auctioning, to avoid snipering (I just made up that word) and to give a bit of economic PvP to the system, is have the auction last a random amount of time instead of one week always. Or set each team to Say yes to a certain ISK amount that is unknown to the bidders.

Also, randomize the amount of time a team can stay. Maybe they shoot up with less performance enhancing mind drugs and can last a bit longer, maybe they fry their brain and blow the wad in half the time.

Also, could be really cool to allow "corporate" or "allied" ownership of teams, maybe in low sec/null sec only (?).

Finally, possibly add a mechanic to allow a system to "steal" a team given enough ISK incentive.

I foresee many possibilities to add in a true industrial PvP system with this mechanic.

ONE MORE IDEA!!!!! If players can eventually train teams with PI, let them train espionage teams. Either teams that purposely ADD cost to jobs, or teams that while active, leak information about jobs in a particular system/facility to the creating corp/alliance.

YAY for industrial warfare!!

Cedric

Volar Kang
Kang Industrial
#573 - 2014-05-01 20:14:36 UTC  |  Edited by: Volar Kang
Green Gambit wrote:


stuff



I think you and I are talking about different things. You seem to be focusing on following teams which was not really my point. I will not be following any teams and I doubt most indy players would as we have too much inventory to keep moving around but... smaller indy players could. Perhaps I used it incorrectly when making my point. My point is, looking at the new costs, it will be cheaper to build/invent and research in an NPC station than it would in any size POS given the information we currently have. Under the changes, most jobs will now cost around 5% of the item cost. This is not enough to justify the price of having a highsec POS.

Edit: One additional factor in the death of highsec POS's is that after the changes you can drop corp and become immune to wardecs in an NPC corp.
Gamer4liff
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#574 - 2014-05-01 20:16:24 UTC  |  Edited by: Gamer4liff
Volar Kang wrote:
So highsec POS's are going away after the change... We can build cheaper in stations a few jumps from trade hubs AND now we will have to follow the teams to get the best manufacturing. Is there going to be any reason to have a highsec POS after these changes besides the whopping 5% reduction in manufacturing costs?

Actually it's 2% for POSes, and up to 5% for outposts. 5% is nothing to sneeze at though.

The smart money in empire will be made by people who use POSes to make BPCs, and then take them and the materials to where optimal teams are, assuming the systems are not too crowded. Or just those who are comfortable enough with moving their BPOs to where the teams are. Or they'd just stay put, unless the team ME bonus is greater than the 2% POS manufacturing bonus. Seems like one way or another there will still be a use for POSes, especially if they retain their production speed bonuses. This isn't hard math.

There are a lot of opportunities here to outwit dopes who manufacture at worse effective ME levels, so assuming the system is not too lopsided, and works as intended, this could be very, very profitable.

A comprehensive proposal for balancing T2 Production: here

Volar Kang
Kang Industrial
#575 - 2014-05-01 20:27:26 UTC
Gamer4liff wrote:


Actually it's 2% for POSes, and up to 5% for outposts. 5% is nothing to sneeze at though.


As far as highsec goes, in order to get that 2% bonus you will need to:

1. Drop 300 to 500 mill for a POS and modules
2. Log on every day to check for wardecs
3. Pay 90 million a month for fuel
4. Haul fuel each month
5. Risk BPO's in a POS if doing copying

I just dont see the current information providing enough reasons to continue using a POS in highsec when I can spend less by using a station and sit in an NPC corp and be about as safe as a person can be in the game
Gamer4liff
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#576 - 2014-05-01 20:38:07 UTC  |  Edited by: Gamer4liff
Volar Kang wrote:

As far as highsec goes, in order to get that 2% bonus you will need to:

1. Drop 300 to 500 mill for a POS and modules
2. Log on every day to check for wardecs
3. Pay 90 million a month for fuel
4. Haul fuel each month
5. Risk BPO's in a POS if doing copying

I just dont see the current information providing enough reasons to continue using a POS in highsec when I can spend less by using a station and sit in an NPC corp and be about as safe as a person can be in the game

I'm going to be honest, I don't see the problem. None of those are unreasonable barriers to entry. Those who put more at risk, and are more diligent, should profit. Hell, the POS manufacturing speed bonus to ammunition alone made it more than worth it to me to have one in present times.

A comprehensive proposal for balancing T2 Production: here

Volar Kang
Kang Industrial
#577 - 2014-05-01 20:44:08 UTC
Just as an example, let us say a person is building Invulnerability Field II’s and they currently sell for 1.4 million isk each. If I build them in a (small) POS in highsec it will cost me 90 million a month. If I build them in an NPC station 8 to 10 jumps from Dodixie and the slot cost is 5% of item cost, it will cost me 70k per item to manufacture. I would have to make 1286 of them per month to break even. CCP has also mentioned some kind of tax coming to POS slots but has not clarified this yet.

I don’t know many indy players who are making over 1000 modules per month and this does not include the quality of life factors as hauling fuel and being subject to wardecs and having to close down your POS. Don’t forget, if you have a lab in your POS, people will be looking for you since there is a chance you are copying and your BPO is in there.

The changes are not yet written in stone but unless CCP starts to add some benefits to owning a POS in highsec besides the 2% reduction in build cost, many (not all) builders will make more profit by taking down the POS and building in stations.


Dirk MacGirk
Specter Syndicate
#578 - 2014-05-01 20:47:23 UTC  |  Edited by: Dirk MacGirk
Green Gambit wrote:
Volar Kang wrote:
So highsec POS's are going away after the change... We can build cheaper in stations a few jumps from trade hubs AND now we will have to follow the teams to get the best manufacturing. Is there going to be any reason to have a highsec POS after these changes besides the whopping 5% reduction in manufacturing costs?


1) Follow the teams for at best a 7.5% reduction in manufacturing costs - if there's a team available with the bonus. You may not be able to access such a good team, and may have to settle for a smaller team bonus. On top of that you've got time/costs of moving manufacturing operations every 28 days.

2) Setup a POS for a 5% reduction in manufacturing costs. Add in fuel-costs etc. However you've got a more stable base of operations.

That's actually making it look a closer call than you're making out...


The 5% material cost reduction for POS arrays was announced as a devpost in the middle of the threadnaught. That was subsequently changed to 2%.
LHA Tarawa
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#579 - 2014-05-01 20:49:12 UTC
Volar Kang wrote:
Gamer4liff wrote:


Actually it's 2% for POSes, and up to 5% for outposts. 5% is nothing to sneeze at though.


As far as highsec goes, in order to get that 2% bonus you will need to:

1. Drop 300 to 500 mill for a POS and modules
2. Log on every day to check for wardecs
3. Pay 90 million a month for fuel
4. Haul fuel each month
5. Risk BPO's in a POS if doing copying

I just dont see the current information providing enough reasons to continue using a POS in highsec when I can spend less by using a station and sit in an NPC corp and be about as safe as a person can be in the game



2% material cost (from better ME)... AND... some unknown % cost scaling cost of being in station... IF you put your POS in a place where no one else is doing anything.
LHA Tarawa
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#580 - 2014-05-01 20:51:21 UTC
Gamer4liff wrote:
Volar Kang wrote:

As far as highsec goes, in order to get that 2% bonus you will need to:

1. Drop 300 to 500 mill for a POS and modules
2. Log on every day to check for wardecs
3. Pay 90 million a month for fuel
4. Haul fuel each month
5. Risk BPO's in a POS if doing copying

I just dont see the current information providing enough reasons to continue using a POS in highsec when I can spend less by using a station and sit in an NPC corp and be about as safe as a person can be in the game

I'm going to be honest, I don't see the problem. None of those are unreasonable barriers to entry. Those who put more at risk, and are more diligent, should profit. Hell, the POS manufacturing speed bonus to ammunition alone made it more than worth it to me to have one in present times.



The problem is that the costs of running the POS are far more than the costs of just building in a station.

In my opinion, the costs of a POS are not too low... the cost of infinite station S&I is too cheap.