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The real reason PLEX is so expensive

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Author
Muppet Beldrulf
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#181 - 2014-04-22 14:54:52 UTC
Salvos Rhoska wrote:

Inflation is a sum total of other facts.
Something has changed, resulting in a rate of inflation above and beyond what was before.



Not really:

Apr/1 2010 286m
Apr/1 2011 366m (+28%)
Apr/1 2012 501m (+37%)
Apr/1 2013 511m (+2%)
Apr/1 2014 698m (+37%)


Rapid plex inflation has been the norm for a long while, it's just we had a temporary stagnation in 2013. Longterm the norm is around +25% a year.
Salvos Rhoska
#182 - 2014-04-22 14:55:00 UTC
Dave Stark wrote:
except we also know the prices of plex is cyclical


Explain and prove please.
Ramona McCandless
Silent Vale
LinkNet
#183 - 2014-04-22 14:55:39 UTC
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
Dave Stark wrote:
roughly 3 years. march 2011 - april 2014
3 years ago plex was 360m, currently it's about 720m. (got that from eve-markets.net data)
that means it takes 3 years for the price to double. that means plex prices increase by 23% per year.


Thank you for proving my point.

23% per year (as an average over 3 years), vs 17% in 4 months in this year.

But you didnt deduct inflation from that.
It is important to do for purposes of determining how much a player can buy with a currency bought PLEX.


By proving your point, I think you mean statistically proving the opposite of your point.

You are not right as often as you are deluded into thinking you are.

"Yea, some dude came in and was normal for first couple months, so I gave him director." - Sean Dunaway

"A singular character could be hired to penetrate another corps space... using gorilla like tactics..." - Chane Morgann

Salvos Rhoska
#184 - 2014-04-22 14:56:00 UTC
Muppet Beldrulf wrote:
Longterm the norm is around +25% a year.


Its only 4 months into this year, and its already at +17%.
Salvos Rhoska
#185 - 2014-04-22 14:57:15 UTC  |  Edited by: Salvos Rhoska
Ramona McCandless wrote:
By proving your point, I think you mean statistically proving the opposite of your point.

You are not right as often as you are deluded into thinking you are.


He proved my point, that in 4months, in this year, PLEX price has already climbed to near to 3/4 the average annual appreciation.
This further reinforces my view that PLEX will reach 1 bil by the fall.
Lucas Kell
Solitude Trading
S.N.O.T.
#186 - 2014-04-22 14:59:02 UTC
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
Muppet Beldrulf wrote:
Longterm the norm is around +25% a year.


Its only 4 months into this year, and its already at +17%.
Still waiting on your source and calculation to get to that 17%. Once you get that we can see how you want your particular dataset calculated. Alternatively you can just calc it up yourself and I've provided the places you are most likely to find a spike over a 4 month period.

The Indecisive Noob - EVE fan blog.

Wholesale Trading - The new bulk trading mailing list.

Muppet Beldrulf
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#187 - 2014-04-22 15:00:23 UTC
Salvos Rhoska wrote:

Show me when PLEX has risen 17% in 4months before now?




1/Aug/2011 364m to 1/Dec 2011 435m, +19.5%
1/Aug/2012 485m to 1/Dec 2012 586m, +20.8%



Mashie Saldana
V0LTA
OnlyFleets.
#188 - 2014-04-22 15:00:30 UTC  |  Edited by: Mashie Saldana
When the game is stagnating people are unlikely to invest cash to convert PLEX to ISK.

Also at the same time people are also less keen on spending money on a subscription so slowly burn through their ISK reserves (like me) until something interesting is happening. If nothing happens in the end I have at least got the most out of the ingame assets I had.
Lucas Kell
Solitude Trading
S.N.O.T.
#189 - 2014-04-22 15:02:45 UTC
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
Ramona McCandless wrote:
By proving your point, I think you mean statistically proving the opposite of your point.

You are not right as often as you are deluded into thinking you are.


He proved my point, that in 4months, in this year, PLEX price has already climbed to near to 3/4 the average annual appreciation.
This further reinforces my view that PLEX will reach 1 bil by the fall.
All he showed was that the overall increase in a year was above what you had stated for 4 months. And it could very well be there there is a single spike and a shallow slant across the whole year, meaning that 17% over 4 months means nothing long term. It could even be that there is a lull, followed by a spike, making the spike seem bigger than it was. You stating 17% doesn't evidence anything on it's own other than what we already know which is right now (as with several times in the past) plex price is up.

The Indecisive Noob - EVE fan blog.

Wholesale Trading - The new bulk trading mailing list.

Dave stark
#190 - 2014-04-22 15:03:17 UTC
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
Dave Stark wrote:
except we also know the prices of plex is cyclical


Explain and prove please.


look at the data for plex prices, there's a perod of rapid growth followed by a period of almost non existent growth, then that trend repeats.

eg start of oct 2011 it was ~380m/plex, by nearly the end of november it was 500m/plex. that's 20% in 2 months.
so this kind of rapid short term growth isn't unprecidented at all.
Muppet Beldrulf
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#191 - 2014-04-22 15:03:35 UTC
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
Muppet Beldrulf wrote:
Longterm the norm is around +25% a year.


Its only 4 months into this year, and its already at +17%.



Different time period. Prolly best to wait till the end of the year, rather than assuming based on very sketchy evidence.
Dave stark
#192 - 2014-04-22 15:04:03 UTC
Muppet Beldrulf wrote:
Salvos Rhoska wrote:

Show me when PLEX has risen 17% in 4months before now?




1/Aug/2011 364m to 1/Dec 2011 435m, +19.5%
1/Aug/2012 485m to 1/Dec 2012 586m, +20.8%





oh look, those 2011 numbers, the same numbers i found. glad i'm not alone.
Dave stark
#193 - 2014-04-22 15:05:04 UTC
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
Dave Stark wrote:
roughly 3 years. march 2011 - april 2014
3 years ago plex was 360m, currently it's about 720m. (got that from eve-markets.net data)
that means it takes 3 years for the price to double. that means plex prices increase by 23% per year.


Thank you for proving my point.

23% per year (as an average over 3 years), vs 17% in 4 months in this year.

But you didnt deduct inflation from that.
It is important to do for purposes of determining how much a player can buy with a currency bought PLEX.


also it's not "an average"
it's constant growth, it's an exponential function.
Salvos Rhoska
#194 - 2014-04-22 15:08:46 UTC  |  Edited by: Salvos Rhoska
Muppet Beldrulf wrote:
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
Muppet Beldrulf wrote:
Longterm the norm is around +25% a year.


Its only 4 months into this year, and its already at +17%.



Different time period. Prolly best to wait till the end of the year, rather than assuming based on very sketchy evidence.


You are right. It may yet even out.

Unfortunately those previous years figures represent the entire year, and not a 4month period, so there is no direct and valid comparison.

We shall see by this time next year, whether that rate of PLEX inflation has been exceeded or not.

Dave Stark wrote:
also it's not "an average"
it's constant growth, it's an exponential function.


Note:For an entire year, as calculated at the end of it.
Not for the first 4 months of it.

So the 23% you presented is not an average growth, per year, over those three years?
Because that is what I interpreted it as. So no need to correct me if so.
Ramona McCandless
Silent Vale
LinkNet
#195 - 2014-04-22 15:11:51 UTC
Muppet Beldrulf wrote:

Different time period. Prolly best to wait till the end of the year, rather than assuming based on very sketchy evidence.



Dont worry, its only the rest of the human race who has to provide evidence and support their points, Salvos never bothers.

"Yea, some dude came in and was normal for first couple months, so I gave him director." - Sean Dunaway

"A singular character could be hired to penetrate another corps space... using gorilla like tactics..." - Chane Morgann

Ranger 1
Ranger Corp
Vae. Victis.
#196 - 2014-04-22 15:12:46 UTC
A few points:

1: What "methods" do you propose that CCP is using to inflate PLEX prices, and what proof do you have of this?

2: Why would they do such a thing when it would be detrimental to their bottom line? PLEX sales are more profitable than subscriptions, so lower cost in ISK to buy a PLEX encourages more people to use them to keep their account active.

3: You do realize that more people are converting PLEX into AURUM now right? Because people like to paint their ships. This raises demand above the norm, thus raising PLEX prices, not to mention speculation based on this fact.

Basically all you have pointed out is that the PLEX market is very healthy, and that this is also a strong indication that the possibility of ship painting development continuing is very strong indeed. Of course CCP has all of the metrics, but if PLEX prices are rising this sharply in the last couple of months, then demand has increased sharply as well.

This is great for CCP (not the higher prices, as that doesn't help them at all, but rather the higher demand) and it's great for us.

View the latest EVE Online developments and other game related news and gameplay by visiting Ranger 1 Presents: Virtual Realms.

Mag's
Azn Empire
#197 - 2014-04-22 15:12:47 UTC
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
Unfortunately those previous years figures represent the entire year, and not a 4month period, so there is no direct and valid comparison..
1st Aug to 1st Dec is not a 4 month period?

Destination SkillQueue:- It's like assuming the Lions will ignore you in the Savannah, if you're small, fat and look helpless.

Dave stark
#198 - 2014-04-22 15:14:58 UTC
Salvos Rhoska wrote:
Dave Stark wrote:
also it's not "an average"
it's constant growth, it's an exponential function.


For an entire year, as calculated at the end of it.
Not for the first 4 months of it.
So the 23% you presented is not an average growth over those three years?
Because that is what I interpreted it as.


doesn't matter what you interpret it at. working at the assumption that the price of plex is constantly increasing, that constant is 23% per year.
Salvos Rhoska
#199 - 2014-04-22 15:15:25 UTC  |  Edited by: Salvos Rhoska
Ramona McCandless wrote:
Dont worry, its only the rest of the human race who has to provide evidence and support their points, Salvos never bothers.


Ive produced exactly 100% more figures and evidence to support my points than you have for your own.
Its a hallmark you have. Make a lot of counterclaims, yet you have nothing, whatsoever, to back any of it up.
When someone asks you for proof of your claims you respond "I DIDZ NOT MAEK ANEH CLAIMS HURRRR!".
Nice try.

Dave Stark wrote:
doesn't matter what you interpret it at. working at the assumption that the price of plex is constantly increasing, that constant is 23% per year.


Thanks. Then I interpreted and stated it correctly.
Muppet Beldrulf
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#200 - 2014-04-22 15:16:22 UTC
Salvos Rhoska wrote:

Unfortunately those previous years figures represent the entire year, and not a 4month period, so there is no direct and valid comparison.

We shall see by this time next year, whether that rate of PLEX inflation has been exceeded or not.


The longterm norm for a 4 month period is 7.3%.

However, it varies wildly about that, dropping a bit in some 4-month periods, ballooning in others. The recent increase is not the largest, although it's up there.