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Is EVE's current business model sustainable?

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Malcanis
Vanishing Point.
The Initiative.
#101 - 2014-04-15 20:50:27 UTC
Arduemont wrote:
Dave Stark wrote:

he asked for numbers on subs.


CCP have never released accurate subs data.


Actually they used to do so until relatively recently.

"Just remember later that I warned against any change to jump ranges or fatigue. You earned whats coming."

Grath Telkin, 11.10.2016
Derath Ellecon
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#102 - 2014-04-15 21:11:06 UTC  |  Edited by: Derath Ellecon
Ugh
Arduemont wrote:
Dave Stark wrote:

he asked for numbers on subs.


CCP have never released accurate subs data. So active players is all anyone ever gets. Like it or leave it, I don't really give a ****.

Derath Ellecon wrote:

No but those graphs don't depict some horrible downtrend either. Best I can see is the standard cyclical up and downs. Certainly not the

Quote:
Active player numbers being almost the worst they have been in 2 years


or

Quote:
Online numbers hitting a low not seen since 2011 has questions for you....


Have you even looked at that graph? Current average week 26800 and still trending down. It's not been that bad since mid 2012, and was only slightly worse this time two years ago. If it drops any further we will literally see the lowest numbers in two years. You can disagree all you like but those are hard numbers. If we loose 1000 more in averages we will see the lows not seen since 2011 as the other guy said and active numbers don't usually go up again until much closer to expansion release date so we've probably got more down to go yet.


Yes, the difference being that I'm not cherry picking one piece of data. When I also look at the last month I see several spikes near or over 45k. And when I look at the all time average I see what looks to be a similar pattern that has occurred a number of times, all ending in a swing back upwards.

So your point is?
Arduemont
Rotten Legion
#103 - 2014-04-15 21:20:06 UTC
Derath Ellecon wrote:

Yes, the difference being that I'm not cherry picking one piece of data. When I also look at the last month I see several spikes near or over 45k. And when I look at the all time average I see what looks to be a similar pattern that has occurred a number of times, all ending in a swing back upwards.

So your point is?


If that's what you see on the all-time graph then your deluding yourself. My point is, it looks bad. I don't care what you do with that information.

"In the age of information, ignorance is a choice." www.stateofwar.co.nf
Pan Crastus
Anti-Metagaming League
#104 - 2014-04-15 22:02:55 UTC
Gully Alex Foyle wrote:
Go to CCP's website.

Download their publicly available financials.

Notice that they're making lots of money and afaik it's most if not all from EVE.

Business model works fine!


Something tells me that you either didn't do that or you don't know how to read financial statements.

ccp posted a loss of more than $29m before taxes in 2013 ($21m after taxes), mainly due to huge development costs. Revenues were up, but not enough.
Derath Ellecon
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#105 - 2014-04-15 22:10:17 UTC
Arduemont wrote:
Derath Ellecon wrote:

Yes, the difference being that I'm not cherry picking one piece of data. When I also look at the last month I see several spikes near or over 45k. And when I look at the all time average I see what looks to be a similar pattern that has occurred a number of times, all ending in a swing back upwards.

So your point is?


If that's what you see on the all-time graph then your deluding yourself. My point is, it looks bad. I don't care what you do with that information.



Oh you mean that graph where the current datapoint is 26858? and the previous dip was 27643? And the dip before that was 26490? And the dip before that was 24881? And all of these dips precede a decent rise in online activity?

If so then all I see right now is the bottom of another cyclical trend. Maybe come back in 6-9 months and tell us how bad it looks when it doesn't come back up. But IMO it is a little early to be screaming that the sky is falling.
Gully Alex Foyle
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#106 - 2014-04-15 23:58:34 UTC
Pan Crastus wrote:
Gully Alex Foyle wrote:
Go to CCP's website.

Download their publicly available financials.

Notice that they're making lots of money and afaik it's most if not all from EVE.

Business model works fine!


Something tells me that you either didn't do that or you don't know how to read financial statements.

ccp posted a loss of more than $29m before taxes in 2013 ($21m after taxes), mainly due to huge development costs. Revenues were up, but not enough.

Correct, last time I checked 2013 figures weren't published yet while figures up to 2012 were pretty good.

Still, in 2013 the increase in revenues was indeed remarkable (+18%) while the 'huge' development costs were largely due to the write-off of past capitalized development costs, presumably a one-off event. Possibly related to WoD?

An outsider's view of the figures still shows a pretty healthy company.

Make space glamorous! Is EVE dying or not? Ask the EVE-O Death-o-meter!
Gully Alex Foyle
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#107 - 2014-04-16 00:53:04 UTC
Malcanis wrote:
Arduemont wrote:
Dave Stark wrote:

he asked for numbers on subs.


CCP have never released accurate subs data.


Actually they used to do so until relatively recently.
From CCP's annual reports:

End-2010: 360.000 subs
End-2011: 350.000 subs
End-2012: 490.000 subs
End-2013: 500.000+ subs

Make space glamorous! Is EVE dying or not? Ask the EVE-O Death-o-meter!
Dave Stark
#108 - 2014-04-16 06:12:26 UTC
Gully Alex Foyle wrote:
Malcanis wrote:
Arduemont wrote:
Dave Stark wrote:

he asked for numbers on subs.


CCP have never released accurate subs data.


Actually they used to do so until relatively recently.
From CCP's annual reports:

End-2010: 360.000 subs
End-2011: 350.000 subs
End-2012: 490.000 subs
End-2013: 500.000+ subs


so as we can see, constant growth. except that very slight dip at the end of 2011.
Teyr Schmitt
An Errant Venture
#109 - 2014-04-16 06:47:08 UTC
Arduemont wrote:
Derath Ellecon wrote:

Yes, the difference being that I'm not cherry picking one piece of data. When I also look at the last month I see several spikes near or over 45k. And when I look at the all time average I see what looks to be a similar pattern that has occurred a number of times, all ending in a swing back upwards.

So your point is?


If that's what you see on the all-time graph then your deluding yourself. My point is, it looks bad. I don't care what you do with that information.


Yes, I agree. EVE is dying. And nothing, not even ALL the Fanfest panels, can bring it back.

And do you know why this is?

It is because of that infernal orb that returns every Summer. It lures them "outside" and burns them all up. And they are never seen again.

Until Winter or an expansion.
Reiisha
#110 - 2014-04-16 12:26:01 UTC
A subscription model is the *only* business model that will work for EVE. EVen if vanity items were to be introduced in massive quantities they would not generate a reliable source of income and any other items would destabilize the core of the game (the economy), so F2P is out.

Paying for expansions is just "not done". You can't expect people to literally buy into it when you've had 10 years of free expansions, not to mention the gigantic rift and logistics issues it would cause by having people have different levels of access to the same game - This option is out aswell.

Currently, the only viable business model that remains is a normal subscription, unless someone comes up with something radically new that will both get people to pay and is guaranteed to be sustainable over the long haul. However, subscriotions have already proven that they have both qualities as far as EVE is concerned, so there's no incentive to change.

If you do things right, people won't be sure you've done anything at all...
Gully Alex Foyle
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#111 - 2014-04-16 13:57:02 UTC
I'm no gaming industry expert, but I would imagine F2P works well for a game that is:


1) very cheap to create and maintain (both hw and sw)

2) appeals to a huge audience (think several millions at least)

3) is very easy to get into

4) doesn't have (/need) a long-term appeal but rather relies on high customer turnover to make money


So you make money because both your investments and your operating costs are low, and even though your game isn't that great millions of people try it and even 1 in 10 customers actually spending some money on it is enough to make a profit. Also, if it doesn't work you didn't risk a lot of money (investment) in the first place, so on to the next attempt at a 'cheap seven-day wonder' game.


Doesn't look like EVE Online to me (thankfully) Big smile

Make space glamorous! Is EVE dying or not? Ask the EVE-O Death-o-meter!
Eugene Kerner
TunDraGon
Goonswarm Federation
#112 - 2014-04-16 15:17:34 UTC
I did not read a single post in here but I bet it is yet another crapppy F2P post.

TunDraGon is recruiting! "Also, your boobs [:o] "   CCP Eterne, 2012 "When in doubt...make a diȼk joke." Robin Williams - RIP
CETA Elitist
The Prometheus Society
#113 - 2014-04-16 17:13:27 UTC
I'm willing to keep my sub up while EVE goes through a few years of code updating with no new expansions. I think it'd be worth it.
Ramona McCandless
Silent Vale
LinkNet
#114 - 2014-04-16 17:14:34 UTC
Yes, it is

Obviously

"Yea, some dude came in and was normal for first couple months, so I gave him director." - Sean Dunaway

"A singular character could be hired to penetrate another corps space... using gorilla like tactics..." - Chane Morgann
Zarcan
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#115 - 2014-04-16 18:26:01 UTC
I think discussing the very real paradigm switch from desktops to tablets is worth discussing in this matter. If eve isn't sustainable,my first thought would be that that's because desktop PC users in general are in decline as a whole platform.

But that's just me.
Gully Alex Foyle
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#116 - 2014-04-16 18:42:03 UTC
Zarcan wrote:
I think discussing the very real paradigm switch from desktops to tablets is worth discussing in this matter. If eve isn't sustainable,my first thought would be that that's because desktop PC users in general are in decline as a whole platform.

But that's just me.
If you're serious about gaming, you buy a PC for the bigger screen (and/or multiple screens), higher processing power, faster UI, cable (more reliable) internet connection, etc.

If you're not, EVE probably isn't the best game for you anyway.

Make space glamorous! Is EVE dying or not? Ask the EVE-O Death-o-meter!
DaReaper
Net 7
Cannon.Fodder
#117 - 2014-04-16 19:43:36 UTC
Pan Crastus wrote:
Gully Alex Foyle wrote:
Go to CCP's website.

Download their publicly available financials.

Notice that they're making lots of money and afaik it's most if not all from EVE.

Business model works fine!


Something tells me that you either didn't do that or you don't know how to read financial statements.

ccp posted a loss of more than $29m before taxes in 2013 ($21m after taxes), mainly due to huge development costs. Revenues were up, but not enough.




However, if you do a little research in 2010, 2011, and 2012 combined they made more then enough profit to cover that 21m loss. You also hve to realize CCP has been profitable since 2007. So if they have been keeping the profit on hand in the form or cash, a $21m loss for one year is nothing. However, if you see a trend with another loss next year, then you need to worry.

This is the issue with corporations, and esp corp America. When you work quarter to quarter and all that matters is the money you make this quarter, and not the overall scheme of things, then you are not very forsighted and tend to panic.

A smart company would have money set aside in case of a loss to cover it. one year of removal of a development of a game (WoD) is not eve's death. There business model is working, and if they play the cards right will actually increase with the microtransactions, and Valk coming out.

OMG Comet Mining idea!!! Comet Mining!

Eve For life.