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Understanding dropouts from a PvP kill.
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Nhanderu Mbaekuaa
Tribal Liberation Force
Minmatar Republic
#1 - 2014-04-03 13:41:17 UTC  |  Edited by: Nhanderu Mbaekuaa
Tonight I have sampled a lot of killmails and decomposed them to most elementary materials. From the killboards, it seems that there are three categories of output from the killing:

- the hull itself
- destroyed material
- dropped material.

I guess, pretty obviously, that the dropped material is the one that can be found opening the cargo. What about the other two. Do they dissapear from the EVE world so that they must mined again to be replaced? Or is it the material that salvaging can obtain back? For instance, does the hull tritanium come back to the game as scrap metal? The scrap metal bars, infamous as they are, are not listed anywhere in the killmail.
Nhanderu Mbaekuaa
Tribal Liberation Force
Minmatar Republic
#2 - 2014-04-03 13:47:07 UTC
To put a bit more info in the question, let me show you the proportions of the decomposed material for each category. As absolute numbers have no a lot of meaning, I have also divided all the quantities by the number of tritanium units in the hull. Totals are:


- For ship hulls themselves:

Quote:
------fully reduced ship----
18 34 Tritanium 181198533 1.0
18 35 Pyerite 44327459 0.244634756508
18 36 Mexallon 14880780 0.0821241748133
18 37 Isogen 2490598 0.013745133356
18 38 Nocxium 687103 0.0037919898612
18 39 Zydrine 155496 0.000858152642991
18 40 Megacyte 57661 0.000318220015611
1035 2073 Microorganisms 1919980.8000000000000000 0.0105960063153
1032 2267 Base Metals 4283980.8000000000000000 0.0236424695558
1033 2268 Aqueous Liquids 1919980.8000000000000000 0.0105960063153
1032 2270 Noble Metals 1151988.4800000000000000 0.00635760378921
1032 2272 Heavy Metals 3515988.4800000000000000 0.0194040670296
1035 2286 Planktic Colonies 1151988.4800000000000000 0.00635760378921
1035 2287 Complex Organisms 1151988.4800000000000000 0.00635760378921
1035 2288 Carbon Compounds 1151988.4800000000000000 0.00635760378921
1035 2305 Autotrophs 1535984.6400000000000000 0.00847680505228
1032 2306 Non-CS Crystals 1151988.4800000000000000 0.00635760378921
1032 2307 Felsic Magma 1535984.6400000000000000 0.00847680505228
1033 2308 Suspended Plasma 1151988.4800000000000000 0.00635760378921
1033 2309 Ionic Solutions 1151988.4800000000000000 0.00635760378921
1033 2310 Noble Gas 1151988.4800000000000000 0.00635760378921
1033 2311 Reactive Gas 1535984.6400000000000000 0.00847680505228
18 11399 Morphite 1928 1.06402627443e-05
429 16670 Crystalline Carbonide 1387460 0.00765712600996
429 16671 Titanium Carbide 829460 0.00457763087961
429 16672 Tungsten Carbide 367480 0.00202805173925
429 16673 Fernite Carbide 353726 0.00195214604745
429 16678 Sylramic Fibers 602600 0.00332563398844
429 16679 Fullerides 72200 0.000398457972063
429 16680 Phenolic Composites 102119 0.000563575202896
429 16681 Nanotransistors 50020 0.000276050800036
429 16682 Hypersynaptic Fibers 8040 4.43712201577e-05
429 16683 Ferrogel 5173 2.85487962532e-05



- For "destroyed" part of the kill, whatever it means:

Quote:
---destroyed-----
18 34 Tritanium 489902508 2.70367811422
18 35 Pyerite 67589123 0.373011424988
18 36 Mexallon 21024460 0.116029968079
18 37 Isogen 9394971 0.0518490455991
18 38 Nocxium 2227496 0.012293123808
18 39 Zydrine 1388390 0.00766225850184
18 40 Megacyte 654125 0.00360999059523
1032 2267 Base Metals 65368100.040000000000 0.360754024648
1033 2268 Aqueous Liquids 68476800.00000000 0.37791034434
1032 2270 Noble Metals 99607700.040000000000 0.549715819388
1032 2272 Heavy Metals 64235300.040000000000 0.354502318405
1032 2306 Non-CS Crystals 29995700.040000000000 0.165540523664
1033 2308 Suspended Plasma 536971200.00000000 2.96344121064
1033 2309 Ionic Solutions 605448000.00000000 3.34135155498
1033 2310 Noble Gas 21399000.0000 0.118096982606
18 11399 Morphite 198737 0.00109679144036
423 16272 Heavy Water 1069950 0.00590484913032
423 16273 Liquid Ozone 1069950 0.00590484913032
423 16275 Strontium Clathrates 192 1.05961122765e-06
429 16670 Crystalline Carbonide 3245200 0.0179096372706
429 16671 Titanium Carbide 1190280 0.0065689273544
429 16672 Tungsten Carbide 520874 0.00287460384682
429 16673 Fernite Carbide 14875140 0.0820930487335
429 16679 Fullerides 9173660 0.0506276725761
429 16680 Phenolic Composites 556344 0.00307035598351
429 16681 Nanotransistors 132298 0.000730127323934
423 17888 Nitrogen Isotopes 2853200 0.0157462643475
712 25330 Pure Standard Drop Booster 15 8.27821271599e-08
712 25331 Pure Standard Exile Booster 60 3.3112850864e-07
754 25588 Scorched Telemetry Processor 54 2.98015657776e-07
754 25589 Malfunctioning Shield Emitter 263 1.45144662954e-06
754 25590 Contaminated Nanite Compound 855 4.71858124812e-06
754 25591 Contaminated Lorentz Fluid 224 1.23621309892e-06
754 25592 Defective Current Pump 74 4.08391827322e-07
754 25593 Smashed Trigger Unit 194 1.0706488446e-06
754 25594 Tangled Power Conduit 304 1.67771777711e-06
754 25595 Alloyed Tritanium Bar 529 2.91944968451e-06
754 25596 Broken Drone Transceiver 200 1.10376169547e-06
754 25597 Damaged Artificial Neural Network 272 1.50111590583e-06
754 25598 Tripped Power Circuit 3862 2.13136383394e-05
754 25599 Charred Micro Circuit 1626 8.97358258414e-06
754 25600 Burned Logic Circuit 4199 2.31734767963e-05
754 25601 Fried Interface Circuit 3138 1.73180210019e-05
754 25602 Thruster Console 82 4.52542295141e-07
754 25603 Melted Capacitor Console 395 2.17992934855e-06
754 25604 Conductive Polymer 114 6.29144166416e-07
754 25605 Armor Plates 1165 6.42941187609e-06
754 25606 Ward Console 370 2.04195913661e-06
754 25607 Telemetry Processor 3 1.6556425432e-08
754 25608 Intact Shield Emitter 2 1.10376169547e-08
754 25609 Nanite Compound 11 6.07068932506e-08
754 25613 Power Conduit 4 2.20752339093e-08
754 25616 Artificial Neural Network 1 5.51880847733e-09
754 25617 Power Circuit 38 2.09714722139e-07
754 25618 Micro Circuit 5 2.75940423866e-08
754 25619 Logic Circuit 39 2.15233530616e-07
754 25620 Interface Circuit 22 1.21413786501e-07
754 25621 Impetus Console 2 1.10376169547e-08
754 25622 Capacitor Console 2 1.10376169547e-08
754 25623 Conductive Thermoplastic 1 5.51880847733e-09
754 25624 Intact Armor Plates 13 7.17445102053e-08
754 25625 Enhanced Ward Console 6 3.3112850864e-08
712 28689 Pure Synth Exile Booster 15 8.27821271599e-08
Nhanderu Mbaekuaa
Tribal Liberation Force
Minmatar Republic
#3 - 2014-04-03 13:48:35 UTC
And finally, here, the dropped part of the cargo, as told in the killmail.


Quote:
-----recovered--------
18 34 Tritanium 455166053 2.51197427189
18 35 Pyerite 49880669 0.275281858932
18 36 Mexallon 15621471 0.0862119065832
18 37 Isogen 10813448 0.0596773484916
18 38 Nocxium 4179534 0.0230660476705
18 39 Zydrine 2113603 0.0116645701541
18 40 Megacyte 938230 0.00517791167768
1032 2267 Base Metals 183065567.880000000000 1.01030380792
1033 2268 Aqueous Liquids 200164800.00000000 1.1046711951
1032 2270 Noble Metals 283027967.880000000000 1.56197714846
1032 2272 Heavy Metals 183173567.880000000000 1.01089983924
1032 2306 Non-CS Crystals 83211167.880000000000 0.459226498705
1033 2308 Suspended Plasma 1554016800.00000000 8.57632108975
1033 2309 Ionic Solutions 1754181600.00000000 9.68099228485
1033 2310 Noble Gas 62409000.0000 0.344423318262
18 11399 Morphite 272419 0.00150342828659
423 16272 Heavy Water 3120550 0.0172217177939
423 16273 Liquid Ozone 3120500 0.0172214418535
423 16275 Strontium Clathrates 158 8.71971739418e-07
429 16670 Crystalline Carbonide 4888650 0.0269795230627
429 16671 Titanium Carbide 2127420 0.0117408235308
429 16672 Tungsten Carbide 513879 0.00283599978152
429 16673 Fernite Carbide 11226276 0.0619556671576
429 16678 Sylramic Fibers 12 6.62257017279e-08
429 16679 Fullerides 8877890 0.0489953745928
429 16680 Phenolic Composites 1218910 0.0067269308411
429 16681 Nanotransistors 295066 0.00162841274217
429 16682 Hypersynaptic Fibers 23 1.26932594979e-07
423 17888 Nitrogen Isotopes 8321200 0.0459231091016
423 17889 Hydrogen Isotopes 600 3.3112850864e-06
712 25331 Pure Standard Exile Booster 15 8.27821271599e-08
Shoogie
Serious Pixels
#4 - 2014-04-03 13:55:11 UTC  |  Edited by: Shoogie
When a ship blows up, the hull turns into a wreck. All the modules and everything in the cargo (ammo, drones, whatever) has a 50%/50% chance of dropping or being destroyed. Fitted rigs are always destroyed.

Everything that is destroyed disappears from the game forever.

Dropped items can be used yourself, or re-sold on the market. Sometimes they may require a small amount of isk or nanite repair paste to repair any damage.

The wreck just floats in space for 2 hours until it disappears. If someone comes by with a salvager in those two hours, they can salvage it. If it was a T1 ship, he gets T1 salvage. If it was a T2 ship, he can get T2 salvage. Salvage is used to make rigs. You never get minerals from salvage except in the form of metal scraps which are refined into a very small amount of tritanium. Nowhere near the amount used to build the hull in the first place.
Nhanderu Mbaekuaa
Tribal Liberation Force
Minmatar Republic
#5 - 2014-04-03 14:16:50 UTC  |  Edited by: Nhanderu Mbaekuaa
Shoogie wrote:
When a ship blows up, the hull turns into a wreck. All the modules and everything in the cargo (ammo, drones, whatever) has a 50%/50% chance of dropping or being destroyed. Fitted rigs are always destroyed.


Ok, that 50/50 fits with the statistics I am seeing. 455 166 053 trit destroyed vs 489 902 508 trit units dropped, in my sample.

Shoogie wrote:

Everything that is destroyed disappears from the game forever.


Does it? Or is it the base for the output of the salvage?

One of my aims is to calculate the most adequate mix of minerals that must be mined out to recover the loss. If only hulls are lost, for instance, the proportion Pyerite/Tritanium is different that if all the destroyed part is really lost. Actually the destroyed part has 2.7 times more tritanium than the hull!
Aerie Evingod
Midwest Miners LLC
#6 - 2014-04-03 15:14:45 UTC
If it's not dropped, it's destroyed. There is no secret stash of minerals.
Shoogie
Serious Pixels
#7 - 2014-04-03 15:23:32 UTC
Nhanderu Mbaekuaa wrote:

Does it? Or is it the base for the output of the salvage?


Salvaged items are the ones with the 754 prefix in your destroyed items list above, that is Scorched Telemetry Processors to Enhanced Ward Consoles.

You can never refine a Ward Console back into minerals. So therefore, you can say all the minerals are gone from the game forever and need to be replaced by miners. The one salvage item that can be refined back to tritanium is metal scraps. I think each one of those turns into 500 tritanium, but I may be mistaken. There are different salvage tables depending on what hull is being salvaged. A Caldari T2 ship will have one salvage table. A Minmatar T1 ship will have a different table. When you salvage you get a small random selection from that salvage table. Larger wrecks usually give more salvage than small wrecks. Sometimes you randomly get nothing.

Not only do you sometimes randomly get nothing from salvaging, many wrecks never get salvaged at all and simply go poof at the end of two hours. Perhaps the battlefield was too dangerous to go back with a salvaging ship. I don't really have enough experience salvaging to estimate how much of each type of salvage comes from which ships.


Also, it does not make sense for you to break down the recovered items into the constituent parts. They do not need to be replaced.

Imagine I am flying around in my Crow and someone catches me and kills it. I had three Rocket Launcher IIs fit. Two dropped and one was destroyed. My opponent gets those two Rocket Launcher IIs. He can either place them on the market, or he can keep them to use on one of his own ships. If he keeps them, that is two fewer Rocket Launcher IIs he would need to buy from the market. Either way, the market is net +2 Rocket Launcher IIs.

So when I replace my Crow, I buy three Rocket Launcher IIs, only 1 new one needs the minerals to be mined and manufactured. Therefore, consider that the things in the recovered list do not need to be replaced. Just look at the hull and the destroyed items.

Miners need to mine all the minerals (prefix 18) and ice (prefix 423).
PI people need to make more PI goods (prefixes 1032-1035).
Moon mining alliances make all the moon goo (prefix 429).
Salvagers acquire more salvage (prefix 754). Now a fraction of the salvage may come from my own wreck, but it still requires someone to take the effort to go salvage it.
Gas miners replace and react the drugs (prefix 712).

Did I miss anything?
Nhanderu Mbaekuaa
Tribal Liberation Force
Minmatar Republic
#8 - 2014-04-03 15:49:12 UTC
Ok, thus only destroyed + hull are relevant.

For simpler reference, then, here is the sum of units of minerals lost in the sample of killmails:
Quote:

Tritanium 80.25%
Pyerite 13.38%
Mexallon 4.29%
Isogen 1.42%
Nocxium 0.34%
Zydrine 0.18%
Megacyte 0.085%
Morphite 0.024%
350125GO
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#9 - 2014-04-03 15:52:39 UTC
When you're seeing things like minerals dropped or destroyed in a killmail, they were in the cargo of what was killed, not a result of the ship being destroyed. Do your research again looking only at battleship kills and see if there's a difference. If you're looking at a bunch of mining ships or industrials you'll see minerals and PI/Moon Materials dropped/destroyed.

The ships being destroyed have no impact at all on how much ore spawns in the game. You're overthinking this.

If a ship is destroyed, look at the blueprint to see how much minerals are needed to replace it. Anything that isn't destroyed is just gravy for whomever comes upon it.

You're young, you'll adjust. I'm old, I'll get used to it.
Nhanderu Mbaekuaa
Tribal Liberation Force
Minmatar Republic
#10 - 2014-04-03 16:29:50 UTC  |  Edited by: Nhanderu Mbaekuaa
350125GO wrote:

If a ship is destroyed, look at the blueprint to see how much minerals are needed to replace it. Anything that isn't destroyed is just gravy for whomever comes upon it.


Yes, that is the content of the tables I have posted. For each material listed in the kill, included the ship, I have run the blueprint backwards to calculate the components. My doubt is that perhaps the sample is not faithfull, because some ships are lost to PvE rats; the conjecture is that there are no different, component-wise, of the rest.
Wulfgar WarHammer
Unrustled
#11 - 2014-04-03 16:36:47 UTC
350125GO wrote:
You're overthinking this.
Shoogie
Serious Pixels
#12 - 2014-04-03 16:44:53 UTC
I believe that is what he did. He looked up a bunch of lossmails and added up the materials needed to manufacture them.

A crow is made up of a condor, some T2 components, and some advanced PI goods. The condor was made of minerals. The T2 components were made of moon goo. The advanced PI goods were made of lesser PI goods. Add up all the raw materials for all the hulls in however many lossmails he looked at, got him to the first table he posted showing 181M tritanium and 44M pyerite, etc.

Then he did the same for all the destroyed modules and cargo in those lossmails and came up with the second table showing 489M tritanium and 67M pyerite.

Am I right?

Theoretically, if you know the ratio of minerals that leave the game through explosions, then you know what ratio of minerals need to be mined to replace those ships.

One thing he is missing is inneffiencies. What material level was the crow blueprint? How much was wasted in manufacturing? What is the ratio of crows being built from BPOs versus BPCs? What decryptors were used by the BPC inventors? CCP may know the answers, but I don't think there is a good way for players to estimate it for every ship and module in the game.
Shoogie
Serious Pixels
#13 - 2014-04-03 16:52:58 UTC
Another thing you are missing is rat dropped modules.

The meta 4 Fleeting Propulsion Inhibitor (webifier) that was destoyed, technically has a mineral makeup because it can be refined into minerals.

However, there is no blueprint for that item. It cannot be manufactured by players. All of the ones in the game were dropped from a loot table from some rat somewhere.

So it is not miners and manufacturers replacing those, but mission runners and ratters.
350125GO
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#14 - 2014-04-03 16:55:33 UTC
Shoogie wrote:

Theoretically, if you know the ratio of minerals that leave the game through explosions, then you know what ratio of minerals need to be mined to replace those ships.


That theory would be pretty flawed, and I don't understand what the purpose of it would be.

If it's for a corp standpoint, then maybe 80-90% would need to be replaced since most drops are going to be scooped by someone outside of the corp.

From a general eve point of view, what's the purpose of this in the first place? Unless this is some macroeconomic theory at play that I don't understand (which would be the majority of macroeconomic theory) I don't see what he's getting at, or how this ratio could be used to anyone's advantage.

You're young, you'll adjust. I'm old, I'll get used to it.
Nhanderu Mbaekuaa
Tribal Liberation Force
Minmatar Republic
#15 - 2014-04-03 17:59:53 UTC  |  Edited by: Nhanderu Mbaekuaa
Shoogie wrote:
Another thing you are missing is rat dropped modules.

The meta 4 Fleeting Propulsion Inhibitor (webifier) that was destoyed, technically has a mineral makeup because it can be refined into minerals.

However, there is no blueprint for that item. It cannot be manufactured by players. All of the ones in the game were dropped from a loot table from some rat somewhere.

So it is not miners and manufacturers replacing those, but mission runners and ratters.



Uff, I see, that is a mistake on my side, thus. I didn't know. I will recheck the program to do not decompose any element without blueprint, that will be a better aproximation. I really believed that every element was nowadays fabricated by the industrialists... I wonder how much competition comes from rat droppings, is there some estimate?


350125GO wrote:
[quote=Shoogie]
If it's for a corp standpoint, then maybe 80-90% would need to be replaced since most drops are going to be scooped by someone outside of the corp.

From a general eve point of view, what's the purpose of this in the first place?.


Well, my first thinking is that it was a clue for the kind of ore to mine. Naively, I'd guess that the ore whose composition is nearest to the replacement proportions is going to be more valuable. Not so naively, we can inject the ore table and the aimed proportions to a linear programming algorithm and see which is the optimal combination of ores.
350125GO
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#16 - 2014-04-03 19:04:26 UTC
Nhanderu Mbaekuaa wrote:

Well, my first thinking is that it was a clue for the kind of ore to mine. Naively, I'd guess that the ore whose composition is nearest to the replacement proportions is going to be more valuable. Not so naively, we can inject the ore table and the aimed proportions to a linear programming algorithm and see which is the optimal combination of ores.


Ok. then this brings me back to my original suggestion. You're over-thinking the entire issue. The kind of ore to mine is the one that will make the most profit for you, or the one you need the most if you're using the minerals yourself. You'll find that both of those options change over time as markets change and as your needs change.

You're young, you'll adjust. I'm old, I'll get used to it.
Tau Cabalander
Retirement Retreat
Working Stiffs
#17 - 2014-04-04 11:10:53 UTC
350125GO wrote:
Ok. then this brings me back to my original suggestion. You're over-thinking the entire issue. The kind of ore to mine is the one that will make the most profit for you,

This is the correct answer.

350125GO wrote:
or the one you need the most if you're using the minerals yourself. You'll find that both of those options change over time as markets change and as your needs change.

This is the wrong answer.

You always mine what earns you the most, and sell it to buy what you need.
Nhanderu Mbaekuaa
Tribal Liberation Force
Minmatar Republic
#18 - 2014-04-04 12:28:33 UTC
Tau Cabalander wrote:

This is the correct answer.

350125GO wrote:
or the one you need the most if you're using the minerals yourself. You'll find that both of those options change over time as markets change and as your needs change.

This is the wrong answer.

You always mine what earns you the most, and sell it to buy what you need.



But it is still good, worksheet-wise, to calculate also the "wrong" answer as a kind of bound, and see how much time do we need if we just mine the most valuable ore and resell it to buy the actual materials we are looking for.

The right answer is probably a combination of everything. You mine the ore, or closest set of ores to produce the minerals you need, and seel the unneeded excess to buy more of the needed set, then minimising the total time in space. I wonder, is there around some worksheet already calculating this?
xPredat0rz
Project.Nova
The Initiative.
#19 - 2014-04-04 12:48:01 UTC
Your math is a bit off. Its not 50% of the **** drops.

Each individual item has a 50-50 chance of dropping. Lets say you have a stack of 100k of something if that stack drops all 100k drops. If it doesnt its all destroyed. Same goes for **** in cans.

Your actual drop can be closer to 70% of the **** or it could be less then 40%.Random drops are random.
Wulfgar WarHammer
Unrustled
#20 - 2014-04-04 12:50:29 UTC
Nhanderu Mbaekuaa wrote:
You mine the ore, or closest set of ores to produce the minerals you need, and seel the unneeded excess to buy more of the needed set, then minimising the total time in space. I wonder, is there around some worksheet already calculating this?


Mining Chart

You mean to tell me this whole time you've been trying to recreate something that has been readily available for almost a decade?

For someone who seems to know alot about programming, you don't seem to know how to internet very well
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