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tritanium and pyerite shorts

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jubalee echo
Imperial Academy
Amarr Empire
#1 - 2014-01-29 00:19:23 UTC
Anyone else close out shorts today?
looks like the top few common mineral prices will trend up for the next six months due to demand.
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#2 - 2014-01-29 00:50:31 UTC
Depends how many supercapitals are replaced.

I am, however, getting myself out of the Ishtar production business and into the mineral compression business.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com
James Nikolas Tesla
Tesla Holdings
#3 - 2014-01-29 05:16:15 UTC
Wooo! I'm mining!

CODE is just a bunch of pirates; smart, organized pirates. It doesn't help to rage at them because that is exactly what they want. Dust yourself off and get back on your feet, you don't even have to talk to them.
mynnna
State War Academy
Caldari State
#4 - 2014-01-29 05:27:36 UTC
Jita trades 20b+ units of trit a day. 75 Titans is about 280b units. The dreads lost are another 35b units. Those new titans, where they aren't replaced with existing but inactive titans, will be spread out over weeks or months simply by necessity. Six months is hilariously optimistic. If I had to guess i'd say mineral prices are back to normal inside a month.

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal
Kendra Coldera
Pandemic Horde Inc.
Pandemic Horde
#5 - 2014-01-29 10:32:44 UTC
The recent spike was probably purely because of people speculating, and not because of the aftermath of the battle (similar to goons ice interdiction).
Arkady Vachon
The Gold Angels
Sixth Empire
#6 - 2014-01-29 11:46:03 UTC
Still netted me some lucre.

Nothing Personal - Just Business...

Chaos Creates Content
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#7 - 2014-01-29 12:02:26 UTC
If I had refining skills I could have made some big ISK on the spike. Ah well, no big loss. I told a couple of New Order folks about the opportunity given I wasn't going to take it, and I think D400 may have made a decent return which should fund a thousand gank ships or so.

For some reason Trit and Veldspar spiked but not Concentrated or Dense (at least in Sinq Laison at the time I checked).

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com
Sarton Wells
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#8 - 2014-01-29 15:23:17 UTC  |  Edited by: Sarton Wells
mynnna wrote:
Jita trades 20b+ units of trit a day. 75 Titans is about 280b units. The dreads lost are another 35b units. Those new titans, where they aren't replaced with existing but inactive titans, will be spread out over weeks or months simply by necessity. Six months is hilariously optimistic. If I had to guess i'd say mineral prices are back to normal inside a month.



Not saying you're wrong or implying I know more about the Eve market and industry, but why are you looking at just this last battle? Since the Fountain war....maybe even since Asakai, there are constantly big battles with a lot of ships lost. Add to that the likely dwindling supplies of pre-rebalance ships and the changes to warp speeds which make the mineral flow generally a bit slower...IMHO the trit price will not go bellow 5 isk and pyerite bellow 12.5 in the near future. That said I'm pulling these numbers from my ass.
Mario Putzo
#9 - 2014-01-29 16:00:16 UTC  |  Edited by: Mario Putzo
Mynnna is pretty accurate in estimation of the current market. My own numbers show that if the current trend is maintained that numbers will return to near 0% deviation from before this battle around end of Feb. That being said another huge fight could drive prices even further up, and that another loss on the scale of HED or B-R could extend the time of recovery further down the road.


But you can't predict those things, you can't really account for them in projections. I mean the probability that even more stuff will die in the coming days/weeks is highly likely but speculation based on something like that could lead to lots of lost money. For example you could buy up all kinds of things based on the assumption the next timer battle draws similar results as HED, but just as equally we could see CFC leave the theatre thus pretty much ending the war.

Another example of unpredictable variance. The B-R fight itself. Who would have thought a titan turkey shoot would take place. I don't think anyone would have predicted CFC actually using their super capital fleet, because they seldom do. I would imagine if we had a groundhog day type thing happen it would play out the same again and again because that is just how remotely obscure this incident was.

As for your numbers from the butt. They are pretty accurate, Trit under 5.40 can be bought and flipped comfortably at 5.40 today. Judging on the rate of climb and shorts on market id say at this time tomorrow we would be talking about a 5.70-5.80 price point tomorrow...before degrading some over the weekend.

And assuming nothing happens on scale of HED or B-R, the gains will taper off starting mid week 3 and trend down through end of the month
Zaxix
State War Academy
Caldari State
#10 - 2014-01-29 18:15:07 UTC
I had assumed that the proliferation of renters and the changes to nosec mineral distribution would lead to a healthy nosec source of minerals for the sov blocs. Is that not the case?

Bokononist

 
mynnna
State War Academy
Caldari State
#11 - 2014-01-29 22:54:22 UTC  |  Edited by: mynnna
Zaxix wrote:
I had assumed that the proliferation of renters and the changes to nosec mineral distribution would lead to a healthy nosec source of minerals for the sov blocs. Is that not the case?


There's a point at which importing compressed minerals is easier than moving minerals to your supercap yards. That point is when the miners are, at most, one titan bridge away.


vvv This is also a thing too. Also, earlier battles are pretty much irrelevant. The 370 dreads lost in B-R5 would barely be noticed without the titans - they're about two days worth of Jita trit volume. A thousand battleships welping in a day is maybe half a day of Jita's volume.

tl;dr stop underestimating just how much damn ore highsec miners suck down.

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal
X ATM092
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#12 - 2014-01-29 23:16:06 UTC
You can't simply buy trit and have more titans, it doesn't work that way. Production was pretty much already running at capacity and was already being met by supply. While production can theoretically be ramped up it takes huge isk and time investment to do so, any trit change will happen quite a while after the increase in demand.
Mario Putzo
#13 - 2014-01-30 03:10:36 UTC  |  Edited by: Mario Putzo
X ATM092 wrote:
You can't simply buy trit and have more titans, it doesn't work that way. Production was pretty much already running at capacity and was already being met by supply. While production can theoretically be ramped up it takes huge isk and time investment to do so, any trit change will happen quite a while after the increase in demand.


Trit is generally very hard to bubble. Ive been watching (and helping) it bubble since before the fight in B-R started. Its mostly not even the Titans tbh.

Trit broke a run because there hasn't been any relaxed period since about May of last year. Large quantities supported Fountain, into BL losing 30 Super, Bunch of Carriers and Dreads, and then continued into the Halloween War, with Solar and Kadeshi losing more Supers, and right into HED and B-R.

You can look at all the minerals and notice the same sustained trend throughout. All except Trit. Trit maintained mostly a baseline average throughout the past 5 months despite war happening the whole time...but on the 27th broke with a little bit of help by some market folks who kept pushing during the 21 hour fight.

(Thats all on top of the massive amount High and Fringe Lowsec production uses.)


But really though Trit doesn't make you much money, you can make a lot, but most of it is just investment principle anyway.
Zappity
New Eden Tank Testing Services
#14 - 2014-01-30 10:08:26 UTC
I don't understand. How do you short on a price spike? And how do you short in EVE at all?

Zappity's Adventures for a taste of lowsec and nullsec.
Mario Putzo
#15 - 2014-01-30 14:07:37 UTC  |  Edited by: Mario Putzo
Zappity wrote:
I don't understand. How do you short on a price spike? And how do you short in EVE at all?


Price spikes because of the short, there is a short created because regular production is now competing with a larger influx of lowsec and nullsec purchases. As well as Market Speculators who do nothing but keep a product off the market and the price at a certain height.

Eventutally supply will meet demand as the price hits a point where speculators will sell off their reserve stocks. Or the value of the market attracts more suppliers (ie. dudes mining).