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The Honestly Dishonest Pyramid Scheme - MD Experiment

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Imiarr Timshae
Funny Men In Funny Hats
#21 - 2013-11-28 20:08:49 UTC
Derp Durrr wrote:
Magnu Stormhawk wrote:
I feel like there should be an investment amount that is highly unlikely to see you losing money, but i'm not smart enough to work out what that is.


the correct answer to your question is 42.

Blink


You are more than welcome to try Big smile

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Imiarr Timshae
Funny Men In Funny Hats
#22 - 2013-11-29 08:59:58 UTC
Imiarr Timshae
Funny Men In Funny Hats
#23 - 2013-12-01 14:40:43 UTC
Imiarr Timshae
Funny Men In Funny Hats
#24 - 2013-12-03 14:56:09 UTC
Imiarr Timshae
Funny Men In Funny Hats
#25 - 2013-12-06 00:42:46 UTC
Imiarr Timshae
Funny Men In Funny Hats
#26 - 2013-12-09 16:58:32 UTC
Imiarr Timshae
Funny Men In Funny Hats
#27 - 2013-12-12 01:39:42 UTC  |  Edited by: Imiarr Timshae
The Honestly Dishonest Pyramid Scheme December 2013 has concluded!

"Scam Day" occurred on Day 17 being 00:00 on the 12th December.

The total ISK pool as of midnight was : 129,465,000.00 ISK.

The rules state that the top Ten investors will receive 45% of the ISK pool and the remaining 50% will go to all other investors equally. However, we have not had more than ten investors.

In the interest of fairness (since the rules are technically invalid) the entire remaining pool minus 5% will be split equally between all current investors. Therefore 95% of the pool = 122.991mil. An equal share of 26,598,000 has been sent to all current investors.

The deposits and interest compared to the ISK pool can be viewed on this very poorly made graph.

Breakdown of Events:

Day 1 (Event Begins) 26.11.13
100m Deposit
1000m Deposit
Day 2 27.11.13
10m Deposit
Day 3 28.11.13
50m Deposit
Day 10 05.12.13
25m Deposit
Day 11 06.12.13
250m Deposit

Day 14 08.12.13
1305.536m Withdrawal

Day 17
Event Closes

Basic Analysis :

The big investor was the obvious winner. With a deposit of 1000m and a withdrawal of 1305.536m for a total of 30.55% profit in two weeks.

The smallest investor was also successful with a deposit of 10m and a Scam Day payout of 26.598m, making the smallest deposit technically also the most profitable proportionate to the investment.

Only one withdrawal was made during the entire period. With the interest rate of 3% per day since Day 7 all of the deposits were gaining steadily and it was a surprise to me that only one investor withdrew, particularly with the event being well into the time period where "Scam Day" could occur.

Overall I believe I need to reword some of the terms and potentially change in part the rules by which the game is played in order to help lengthen it and/or make aggressive play more rewarding. I am considering also the potential for remarketing this as "ISK PvP" rather than some quasi-serious pyramid scheme. Most of the investors I spoke to viewed it either as an interesting take on "investment" or the perfect opportunity to attempt to steal someones ISK with risk involved at the same time.

My gratitude to all for participating and I hope you'll be interested in the next round once I get things sorted.

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TheSmokingHertog
Julia's Interstellar Trade Emperium
#28 - 2013-12-12 01:55:44 UTC
Seems like a nice play, keep it up, see forward to next time.

"Dogma is kind of like quantum physics, observing the dogma state will change it." ~ CCP Prism X

"Schrödinger's Missile. I dig it." ~ Makari Aeron

-= "Brain in a Box on Singularity" - April 2015 =-
Ricard Chastot
Snake Eye Production
#29 - 2013-12-12 02:49:54 UTC
Imiarr Timshae wrote:
Overall I believe I need to reword some of the terms and potentially change in part the rules by which the game is played in order to help lengthen it and/or make aggressive play more rewarding. I am considering also the potential for remarketing this as "ISK PvP" rather than some quasi-serious pyramid scheme. Most of the investors I spoke to viewed it either as an interesting take on "investment" or the perfect opportunity to attempt to steal someones ISK with risk involved at the same time.


Absolutely. This is gambling and you'll probably see more success presenting it that way.

Hello ladies (and dudes pretending to be ladies)! Say hello to New Eden's 2nd hottest Intaki! It's me. You can say hello to me. Hi.
Rhivre
TarNec
Invisible Exchequer
#30 - 2013-12-12 07:35:14 UTC
It was fun :) Look ing forward to the next one

Fluffy Bunny Pic!

loonitunen
The loonibin
#31 - 2013-12-12 13:40:43 UTC
I would have thought more people, would have pulled there isk out, i didn't expect me to be the only one, NOT that i complain about the time i did it, even though it was 7 days before my first planned withdraw.

the main reason i took 7 days of my plan was that i needed the isk badly, and therefore had to pull the plug, and some times that seams to be a good thing.

In the next event, if there is one, i might try to do some more calculations on how to make this a riskfree event, so that i can earn some more isk, whit out being afraid of losing it.

There must be a way to do this, and i might even have an idea already , so until next time, have fun investing your isk.
Imiarr Timshae
Funny Men In Funny Hats
#32 - 2013-12-12 14:39:53 UTC
loonitunen wrote:

In the next event, if there is one, i might try to do some more calculations on how to make this a riskfree event, so that i can earn some more isk, whit out being afraid of losing it.


Conceptually at least that is something I don't want to happen, in so far as this event is supposed to be about the inherent risk behind investments.

There definitely will be another event. It may be structured differently.

And what I'd ask is : If there is a risk free way of playing the event won't everyone do it, and would that stop the risk free method from working? Big smile

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TheSmokingHertog
Julia's Interstellar Trade Emperium
#33 - 2013-12-12 14:58:06 UTC
Imiarr Timshae wrote:
[quote=loonitunen]
And what I'd ask is : If there is a risk free way of playing the event won't everyone do it, and would that stop the risk free method from working? Big smile


You would create looped reasoning, so, yes, I think.

"Dogma is kind of like quantum physics, observing the dogma state will change it." ~ CCP Prism X

"Schrödinger's Missile. I dig it." ~ Makari Aeron

-= "Brain in a Box on Singularity" - April 2015 =-
Xenias Gigawatt
The Greater Goon
#34 - 2013-12-12 15:26:38 UTC
For what it's worth, I actually think this "game" is really neat. It seems moderately simple at first, but there's actually quite a bit going on under the surface I suspect. If one starts from the assumption that the rules as written will actually be obeyed,(a risky assumption to be sure) there's probably quite a few strategies that have entirely different payouts depending entirely on other people's strategies being utilized. The rules probably need a bit of tweaking and I think it gets more interesting if there's a moderate to large amount of players involved. If there's only 10 it's sort of boring.
Magnu Stormhawk
#35 - 2013-12-12 17:16:54 UTC
Was an interesting experiment, thanks for running it :)

I shall now roll around in my 25m ISK, basking in the glory of my 150% return.
Imiarr Timshae
Funny Men In Funny Hats
#36 - 2013-12-12 19:09:41 UTC  |  Edited by: Imiarr Timshae
Xenias Gigawatt wrote:
For what it's worth, I actually think this "game" is really neat. It seems moderately simple at first, but there's actually quite a bit going on under the surface I suspect. If one starts from the assumption that the rules as written will actually be obeyed,(a risky assumption to be sure) there's probably quite a few strategies that have entirely different payouts depending entirely on other people's strategies being utilized. The rules probably need a bit of tweaking and I think it gets more interesting if there's a moderate to large amount of players involved. If there's only 10 it's sort of boring.


Thank you for your comments.

I plan to tweak it as you said and keep running it. More players would certainly improve it. I was admittedly surprised at passing the 1bn mark on such a whacky concept, particularly since this is my first "venture" in MD.

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Mithrawnnuruodo
Legacy of the Death Eaters
#37 - 2013-12-12 21:04:26 UTC
This is a pretty cool idea. Can we please add this concept to the official definition of Scambling? Nobody uses that word anymore.
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