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Post Rubicon Invention rates
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Lady Storm
Original Sinners
Pandemic Legion
#1 - 2013-12-01 21:41:19 UTC
Im just wondering if anyone else is experiencing extremely low invention rates post Rubicon? Perhaps I'm just in a slump of success right now, but im averaging about 10% less success rates over 100 inventions than what I should be getting.

Anyone else experiencing that?
RubyPorto
RubysRhymes
#2 - 2013-12-02 03:57:53 UTC
rng is r

"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths." -Abrazzar "the risk of having your day ruined by other people is the cornerstone with which EVE was built" -CCP Solomon
Elena Thiesant
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#3 - 2013-12-02 05:32:52 UTC
100 inventions is too small a number to draw any conclusions about. Chances are random, they tend towards the average after a statistically significant number of tests. 100 isn't.

This gets posted after every expansion, every major patch and some minor patches too.
Alpharius Aleutinus
School of Applied Knowledge
Caldari State
#4 - 2013-12-02 12:25:26 UTC
Nobody would change the formula without at least informing us of the intent. There is a reason random is random.
Ydnari
Estrale Frontiers
#5 - 2013-12-02 13:01:10 UTC
Every expansion. Every single one...

--
SurrenderMonkey
State Protectorate
Caldari State
#6 - 2013-12-02 15:29:03 UTC
I think you're onto something, OP. I've also noticed that gas-station scratch-off lottery tickets have been simply awful ever since Comet ISON's close brush with the sun.

"Help, I'm bored with missions!"

http://swiftandbitter.com/eve/wtd/
Daniel Plain
Doomheim
#7 - 2013-12-02 15:46:51 UTC
SurrenderMonkey wrote:
I think you're onto something, OP. I've also noticed that gas-station scratch-off lottery tickets have been simply awful ever since Comet ISON's close brush with the sun.

i knew it! damn you lizard people!

I should buy an Ishtar.
Batelle
Federal Navy Academy
#8 - 2013-12-02 15:55:46 UTC
Lady Storm wrote:
Im just wondering if anyone else is experiencing extremely low invention rates post Rubicon? Perhaps I'm just in a slump of success right now, but im averaging about 10% less success rates over 100 inventions than what I should be getting.

Anyone else experiencing that?


just stop.

"**CCP is changing policy, and has asked that we discontinue the bonus credit program after November 7th. So until then, enjoy a super-bonus of 1B Blink Credit for each 60-day GTC you buy!"**

Never forget.
Kahawa Oban
New Groton Industrial Works
#9 - 2013-12-03 02:15:46 UTC
It is a small sample size but yes i've seen a decrease in yield.
Ginger Barbarella
#10 - 2013-12-03 18:48:29 UTC
Zero change in overall average rates for my jobs.

"Blow it all on Quafe and strippers." --- Sorlac
RubyPorto
RubysRhymes
#11 - 2013-12-03 18:51:57 UTC
Batelle wrote:
Lady Storm wrote:
Im just wondering if anyone else is experiencing extremely low invention rates post Rubicon? Perhaps I'm just in a slump of success right now, but im averaging about 10% less success rates over 100 inventions than what I should be getting.

Anyone else experiencing that?


just stop.


Just dance. Gonna be random.
Da-doo-doo-doo
Just dance. Spin that lab slot.
Da-doo-doo-doo
Just dance. Gonna be random.
Duh-duh-duh-duh
Dance. Dance. Dance. Just dance.

"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths." -Abrazzar "the risk of having your day ruined by other people is the cornerstone with which EVE was built" -CCP Solomon
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
#12 - 2013-12-04 00:29:37 UTC
If I had a kitten for every time I'd seen someone hypothesize that RNG is broken after a statstically insignificant number of attempts, I could fill a statistically significant number of swimming pools with dead cats.

I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com
Lord Echon
Star-Crossed Enterprises
#13 - 2013-12-06 12:03:51 UTC
I actually came looking to see if there were others who had also experienced very low success rates recently. It has not been a problem after Rubicon but this week I have had far more misses than hits. So many misses in fact that I started to wonder if something was wrong. Maybe I have simply been unlucky but I wanted to mention it nevertheless.
Elena Thiesant
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#14 - 2013-12-06 12:54:15 UTC
Well based on a massive sample size of 50, my success rate is up, therefore I will make an absolutely groundless conclusion that CCP has increased success rates for characters whose names start with letters A-F, kept it the same for characters whose names start with G-J and decreased success rates for everyone else.

Or it's the RNG being random, as usual.

The brain remembers unusual events far more readily than it remembers the usual. It remembers things that confirm a belief easier than things that counter that belief. Hence one can have a 45% success chance, see 60% successes for weeks on end and not notice anything unusual, but remember clearly and vividly the next two batches that had 5% successes.

To see if success chances have changed, keep a hard record (not memory) of a few thousand inventions of the same type and then calculate the average success rate and see if it's within the statistically expected variance.
Krixtal Icefluxor
INLAND EMPIRE Galactic
#15 - 2013-12-06 16:42:12 UTC
Ydnari wrote:
Every expansion. Every single one...


Yup. Every single expansion.

Former Alliance Leader invented Hulks for a living, and I remember him having a run of around 45 and every single one failed.

It's.................random.

"He has mounted his hind-legs, and blown crass vapidities through the bowel of his neck."  - Ambrose Bierce on Oscar Wilde's Lecture in San Francisco 1882
RubyPorto
RubysRhymes
#16 - 2013-12-06 18:18:45 UTC
A wonderful way for CCP to troll everyone would be to temporarily decrease Invention success rates and exploration drop rates after each expansion.

"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths." -Abrazzar "the risk of having your day ruined by other people is the cornerstone with which EVE was built" -CCP Solomon
Tibrius Archer
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#17 - 2013-12-09 03:54:49 UTC
What a bunch of prigs.

The OP merely asked if anyone else noticed anything. Nothing more. If there was something that was changed perhaps inadvertently this is how you'd know. If this annoys you don't respond and don't take it as an opportunity to say things you couldn't and wouldn't say in IRL.
Elena Thiesant
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#18 - 2013-12-09 05:27:22 UTC
Tibrius Archer wrote:
don't take it as an opportunity to say things you couldn't and wouldn't say in IRL.


Personally I'd say everything I said here in public, in person, no problem. This was a fairly mellow thread compared to some I've seen

A minute of searching (less) would have turned up for the OP all the other posts about exactly this topic posted after every single expansion with, in some cases detailed explanations of the statistics involved and why they cannot conclude anything on such a low set of tests.
SurrenderMonkey
State Protectorate
Caldari State
#19 - 2013-12-09 15:38:01 UTC
Tibrius Archer wrote:
What a bunch of prigs.

The OP merely asked if anyone else noticed anything. Nothing more. If there was something that was changed perhaps inadvertently this is how you'd know. If this annoys you don't respond and don't take it as an opportunity to say things you couldn't and wouldn't say in IRL.



The thing is, the OP didn't really notice anything. They feel like they did, but the statistically insignificant number of jobs renders it purely anecdotal.

"Help, I'm bored with missions!"

http://swiftandbitter.com/eve/wtd/
Jdestars
Stars Research systems Incorporation
#20 - 2013-12-10 11:12:54 UTC  |  Edited by: Jdestars
Lady Storm wrote:
Im just wondering if anyone else is experiencing extremely low invention rates post Rubicon? Perhaps I'm just in a slump of success right now, but im averaging about 10% less success rates over 100 inventions than what I should be getting.

Anyone else experiencing that?


Normal behavior due to the system of the inventions, the success rate and given for 1 try, you can determine the rate to the infinity but the number of drawings is finished it is thus the law of distribution of the series which applies there is an exchange so that you have infini* (1 - rate of success) before having a single successful try

but your wallet are finished limite ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Petersburg_paradox )

check binomial law / bernouilly law , upgrade your Math Clone too ;)

and you know what ? all module with chance factor have same rule like ( hack /archeo/ salvage / ECM / ...... )
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