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Isotopes

Author
Silver Ott
#1 - 2013-11-15 19:06:13 UTC
can anyone in the know tell me how mining ice compares to reg ore in high sec (isk/hour wise)

and where do you guys see the price being in 3/6/12 months from now
Tul Breetai
Impromptu Asset Requisition
#2 - 2013-11-15 19:11:25 UTC
Silver Ott wrote:
can anyone in the know tell me how mining ice compares to reg ore in high sec (isk/hour wise)

and where do you guys see the price being in 3/6/12 months from now

You come in here asking for specific info and you'll be trolled. Try asking how to find the information for yourself.

There's nothing worse than an EVE player, generally considered to be top of the food chain in the MMO world, that cannot smacktalk with wit and coherency.

OllieNorth
Recidivists Incorporated
#3 - 2013-11-15 22:45:13 UTC
More importantly, why do you hate yourself? Ice mining makes regular mining look like fun.
Silver Ott
#4 - 2013-11-15 22:47:10 UTC
the last time i mined had to have been at least 8 years ago :D hence not being up to date with all bonuses etc and a litle lazy
Silver Ott
#5 - 2013-11-15 22:51:00 UTC
let me clarify a little im not trying to figure out whats profitable to mine
just how ise mining compares
and how the prices most likely are going to move
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#6 - 2013-11-15 23:05:15 UTC
If you want I can post a chart saying what price is doing and will probably do in the next future.
But to some, showing a chart is like showing a red banner to an enraged bull.
Silver Ott
#7 - 2013-11-15 23:07:22 UTC
a chart would be more then i could of hope for so yes please

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#8 - 2013-11-16 01:32:55 UTC
Since it takes about an hour to prepare it and it's very late, I am going to post it tomorrow after DT.
Samroski
Games Inc.
#9 - 2013-11-16 05:25:47 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Since it takes about an hour to prepare it and it's very late, I am going to post it tomorrow after DT.

VV, you're just crazy!

(I mean this in the nicest way).

imho, comparing the two is meaningless, as both suck, and they will continue to suck for the foreseeable future, till ring mining comes in, when it will suck even more.

Any colour you like.

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#10 - 2013-11-16 08:44:01 UTC
Samroski wrote:
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Since it takes about an hour to prepare it and it's very late, I am going to post it tomorrow after DT.

VV, you're just crazy!

(I mean this in the nicest way).


In a dark, dystopian universe where dog eats dog and everyone IS out to get you...













... Vaerah gives you a giant space hug! P
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#11 - 2013-11-16 08:46:30 UTC
By the way the "post after DT" is not because I am lazy.

It's because:

1) I am about to go out and do stuff, eat at restaurant with friends etc.

2) The weekly candle bar closes at Saturday post DT. Weekly candle bars are VERY important.

3) Since it takes 1 hour to prepare it's more logical to do it past DT, because the daily candle bar close after Saturday DT as well.
JamDunc
Dreddit
Test Alliance Please Ignore
#12 - 2013-11-16 13:51:36 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Weekly candle bars are VERY important.


Whats a Candle Bar?
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#13 - 2013-11-16 16:57:26 UTC
JamDunc wrote:
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Weekly candle bars are VERY important.


Whats a Candle Bar?


It's a particular price representation. It comes with some nice properties (actually way too many to list here), but in short:

- each candle bar holds 3+ values representing a trading session (day or whatever), usually OHLC data. OHLC data means, each candle bar tells the Opening price, High for the day, Low for the day and Closing price.

- the relations between the graphical element that is generated with those 4 values tells the market sentiment for that day. That in turn hints at what may come next.

- candle bars are fractally auto-similar. That is, a monthly bar holds 4 weekly bars which in turn hold 5 to 7 daily bars (depends on the days the market is closed). Appropriately looking at multiple time frames hints at what price may do next.

I know this is way too little to explain you why those things are good - much better than EvE price charts - but I seriously risk a total TLDR here, because describing a candle bar is like describing a woman. You could go on for months without scratching the surface!

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#14 - 2013-11-16 17:32:34 UTC
Here the fresh charts come!


Monthly chart

WPD
We are still above the super-strong support trend line. This means for now buyers are still reigning uncontrasted.

Chart link.


Weekly chart

WPD

Here the super strong trend line may be seen in all its majesty.

I'd like to ask Mynna about it. How does his own markets analysis methodology explain that?

In my method, you can see buyers and sellers are fiercely battling over Big Round Number 800 ISK. They formed a tight range market I marked with a yellow rectangle. Whoever will win the 800 price level level fight will drag price outside that zone (look at it as it was a gigantic tug of war, where price is the ribbon tied to the rope, buyers and sellers are trying to pull the rope till price leaves a rectangle drawn on the floor. That rectangle is the yellow one I have drawn.

Chart link


Daily chart

WPG

Price is exactly at the middle of the fight zone (800 BRN).

Chart link

I have drawn three of the possible scenarios.

- Scenario 1: buyers win and drag price outside of the yellow rectangle (it's the same rectangle I have also drawn on the weekly chart). If so, the next target is the upper red trend line. By the time price gets there, the trend line will cross 1000 ISK BRN and we'll have a so called confluence. Confluences are powerful situations where multiple factors align up, boosting their effects each other. If buyers win and price gets to 1000, that level will be a good place to either push price sky high or to powerfully repel it down. Above the rectangle it's advisable to buy, as long as price puts a bullish price action pattern on top of it, Please read my EvE-RL finance thread to learn a lot more about these concepts.

- Scenario 2: sellers win and drag price below the yellow rectangle. It's a DANGEROUS area, because price will be stuck between the rectangle bottom (aka RM "support") and the lower red trend line. This will cause a battle where you SHALL risk losing ISK if you'll buy in there.

- Scenario 3: sellers win and drag price back to the lower trend line. If and only if price will put a bullish price action pattern then you may buy and have a decent hope it'll go back up again. Just take attention when it goes back to the yellow rectangle because meeting its bottom will create a resistance effect that will try push price back down. So you have to employ money management in there. More about money management is in my finance thread.

If sellers drag price below the lower trend line and put a bearish price action pattern, then it's going to be a painful day. The day of panic dumping. That trend line is way too strong to not cause mayhem when broken.
Quinn Cooke
Usque Ad Mortem
Solyaris Chtonium
#15 - 2013-11-16 20:43:13 UTC  |  Edited by: Quinn Cooke
Arrow"Isotopes stopped being a trade at 680 and begun being a gamble from that level upwards." VV circa 2012 Market Forums.

I didn't get in on the ground floor here, but making some nice profits hauling. Buy low/Sell high in other regions. Still have a feeling it will inch upwards towards the mythical 1000. If anything, its fun to watch and see who wins this war of rectangles.

doesnt play well with others

Silver Ott
#16 - 2013-11-16 21:55:17 UTC
thanks alot VV

now how about hydrogen isotopes? :D
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#17 - 2013-11-16 22:02:24 UTC  |  Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Quinn Cooke wrote:
Arrow"Isotopes stopped being a trade at 680 and begun being a gamble from that level upwards." VV circa 2012 Market Forums.

I didn't get in on the ground floor here, but making some nice profits hauling. Buy low/Sell high in other regions. Still have a feeling it will inch upwards towards the mythical 1000. If anything, its fun to watch and see who wins this war of rectangles.


True that, but markets evolve and we have to evolve with them.

Markets are made by men, markets are men.

Once a market breaks a new horizon, it is already raising the bar to a new, bold target!

Said in more technical words, swings mark the price breathing room, if it manages to create an higher swing, that swing SHALL be forever recorded and will be visited later again.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#18 - 2013-11-17 12:12:38 UTC
Silver Ott wrote:
thanks alot VV

now how about hydrogen isotopes? :D


I don't have records of those.
If you want I can analyze it but the results will be far from satisfactory.
Rthor
Smugglers Inc.
#19 - 2013-11-17 14:48:26 UTC
Why do you think that this kind of analysis is applicable in a world where a patch can change everything.

It seems to me that anything that you get from such charts cannot be predictive in the world of eve. I understand that people use them IRL, and I am skeptical about them IRL also, however, I accept that IRL there may be someone really smart who can predict the unpredictable and the charts can be leading indicators of future price.

In Eve markets you have huge jumps not before but after the news release. If patches were predictable or patch info was leaked before general release you would not see such huge jumps once patch notes were released. The jumps are not even necessarily indicative of change in value of anything because of existence of free stockpiles of everything. To me it seems that people are selling the news hence the initial spike, then stockpiles get depleted and the new true value gets discovered some time afterwards. How long it takes depends on the size of stockpiles and on demand. Maybe if it cost money to store stockpiles just like IRL then things would be different.

Why do you think that charts have predictive value in eve?

Would not it be profitable to figure out in which market you operate and then set you up with a chart knowing fully well how you are going to interpret it? How do you know that you are not being set up?
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#20 - 2013-11-17 17:34:52 UTC
Rthor wrote:
Why do you think that this kind of analysis is applicable in a world where a patch can change everything.


Because it's made to be applicable in a RL world where a central bank statement, a speculation, a political decision can change everything in far more devastating ways than an EvE patch does.

Actually, patches come every 6 months, deep markets changing RL events happen once a month if not more often.


Rthor wrote:

It seems to me that anything that you get from such charts cannot be predictive in the world of eve. I understand that people use them IRL, and I am skeptical about them IRL also, however, I accept that IRL there may be someone really smart who can predict the unpredictable and the charts can be leading indicators of future price.


They are not predictive at all. That's why they work. Nobody knows the future.
Charts are not leading indicators either. They are snapshots. The method applied to analyze them, instead, is called "trend following". Following as in "delayed". Which is totally the opposite of "predicting the future" or "leading indicator".


Rthor wrote:

In Eve markets you have huge jumps not before but after the news release.


This depends on whether there are news leaks or not. Same as goes in RL.


Rthor wrote:
To me it seems that people are selling the news hence the initial spike, then stockpiles get depleted and the new true value gets discovered some time afterwards. How long it takes depends on the size of stockpiles and on demand. Maybe if it cost money to store stockpiles just like IRL then things would be different.


In RL we assist to the same behaviors and this despite storing stockpiles has a cost. Quick examples: moltitude of oil tankers full and parked around during oil speculations: they are highly paid but still... they are there.


Rthor wrote:

Why do you think that charts have predictive value in eve?


They don't. Neither in EvE or RL.

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