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Balancing High Sec suicide ganking by Hull Value - a realistic approach

First post
Author
Annette Nolen
Perkone
Caldari State
#41 - 2013-11-01 19:29:29 UTC
Zan Shiro wrote:
could we have a red frog representative or other reputable hauling corp chime in and tell us how soon till they faliscade because all that collateral they are paying out on ganks is breaking the wallet.


We plan to "faliscade" in 3 months, 17 days, 4 hours, and 39 minutes.

I have likewise never seen 10 dessies gank a freighter. I have seen 20 do it, however...
Lena Lazair
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#42 - 2013-11-01 19:31:41 UTC
Sipphakta en Gravonere wrote:
Yes, gankers clearly only kill to pad their killboards, not for the (possible) profit. Totally genius. I'd show you the beauty that is the GSF killboard, but can't due to it being offline. That's how much I gank for my KB stats.


That's why I said "profitable cargo ganking remains as-is".

The OP is complaining about the specific cases where people gank high value hulls for lulz, which is NOT profitable.
Sipphakta en Gravonere
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#43 - 2013-11-01 19:32:10 UTC
Freedom Equality wrote:
I was talking about 10 destroyers killing a marauder, not a freighter.

This is not just for freighter ganks, i think those are the most rare.


I'll say this again: If you fly a valuable ship but don't want to invest in protection, why should the game be changed to help you?
Kirimeena D'Zbrkesbris
Republic Military Tax Avoiders
#44 - 2013-11-01 19:38:29 UTC  |  Edited by: Kirimeena D'Zbrkesbris
Freedom Equality wrote:
I was talking about 10 destroyers killing a marauder, not a freighter.

This is not just for freighter ganks, i think those are the most rare.

Jam 1 cata with drones, kill 1 or 2 and tank another 2 by overheating resist modules and booster: it is very possible for gank to fail this way, even more if victim moves so that gankers cannot apply their full dps (blasters with void ammo are rather shortsighted). With upcoming Rubikon it'll be much harder to gank Marauders due to higher resists and tank because of Bastion module (or same tank/resists but much less blingy).

Opinions are like assholes. Everybody got one and everyone thinks everyone else's stinks.

Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#45 - 2013-11-01 21:07:38 UTC
Velicitia wrote:
Freedom Equality wrote:
50% is 50%. If he has 400mil worth of modules on a 1bil ship it means 200 mil worth of loot will drop. And the 200 mil that drop will make the 10 people ganking that ship turn up a profit.


No, a 1b ship carrying 400m in modules will drop anywhere from 0 to 400m in loot, because every individual item has a 50% drop chance.


Your probability of hitting your mark decreases exponentially the more modules/items you need:


1 = 0.5^1 = 0.5 = 50%
2 = 0.5^2 = 0.25 = 25%
5 = 0.5^5 = 0.03125 = 3.125%
10 = 0.5^10 = 0.00097 = 0.09%


(This looks right, but I'm likely missing something -- been ages since learning stats/probability).


Each module dropping is an independent event.

So your 10 modules, is for all 10 to drop. Indeed a less likely event.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#46 - 2013-11-01 21:14:28 UTC  |  Edited by: Teckos Pech
Freedom Equality wrote:
Kirimeena D'Zbrkesbris wrote:
Freedom Equality wrote:
50% is 50%. If he has 400mil worth of modules on a 1bil ship it means 200 mil worth of loot will drop. And the 200 mil that drop will make the 10 people ganking that ship turn up a profit.

Lets see...
Target has 20 modules 1 of which is 350mil shield booster, other modules are T2 1-2 mil each. If you kill it you get 10 modules worth of loot (on average), but Shield booster is not 1 of them (blame loot fairy). That means that gang of 10 killed a target to get 10-20mil worth of modules and lost 150mil (-recovered modules) worth of catalysts. Where is your math now?


That is my point, ganking a 1 bil hull for a 50% chance to get a 350mil module should get you in the red ALL THE TIME.

Want to gank something, pick on a target with a deadspace invulnerability field or two. That gets you potentially 3b worth of loot. Not to mention other modules it might have.

Don`t want to wait for such a target a decide to gank everyone? Well you should be able to do it, at a cost.



The point is that even ganking that ship with a 1 billion isk hull 400 billion isk in modules is not a sure thing profit wise. I have already gone over the numbers. It is a marginal case. Fit your 1 billion isk hull with T2 modules and you'll be just fine.

And your statement is contradictory:

"Ganking a 1 billion isk hull should always put you in the red....except when I say it shouldn't like if you fit deadspace modules....".

All you are doing is moving the line arbitrarily and for what reason?

And your claims of everyone being ganked are quite simply errant nonsense. I have never been ganked in high sec while running missions or using a freighter. Ever. Am I a special snowflake? No, I don't mission in a bling boat, nor do I load down my freighter with a crap ton of cargo that has an isk value making it a tempting target. In other words, I make reasonable decisions in terms of risk taking.

So I'll ask again, why should we move the point so that people can have reduced risk with more valuable cargo, modules, etc.? Why would this be an improvement over the current state?

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#47 - 2013-11-01 21:16:52 UTC
Sipphakta en Gravonere wrote:
Freedom Equality wrote:
Don`t want to wait for such a target a decide to gank everyone? Well you should be able to do it, at a cost.


Why? Looking at eve-kill, suicide ganks are a rare occurrence (understandably so, after all the nerfs this profession has encountered) - why do you want to reduce it even further?


This is true, at least for freighter ganks. I looked at this question and used some data from Uedama and concluded the chances of being ganked are not that common.

Perhaps if the OP could provide some evidence this really does indeed "happen all the time" and is indiscriminate as he claims.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#48 - 2013-11-01 21:23:21 UTC
Freedom Equality wrote:
Sipphakta en Gravonere wrote:
Freedom Equality wrote:
Don`t want to wait for such a target a decide to gank everyone? Well you should be able to do it, at a cost.


Why? Looking at eve-kill, suicide ganks are a rare occurrence (understandably so, after all the nerfs this profession has encountered) - why do you want to reduce it even further?


Because people are using disposable ships and lose almost no ISK to gank unsuspecting targets that have no way to defend themselves. The gankers take NO risk while killing ships that are worth 10x times what the gankers bring.

EVE is about risk. There is no risk for the gankers they are just trading crappy destroyers they don`t mind losing to kill ships worth 1+bil for just the hull, not to mention cargo/fit.

Right now the person getting ganked is taking all the risk and losing the most.


10x will just barely cut it I'm afraid. You keep messing up the numbers.

Lets see, 10x catalysts will cost about 135,000,000 isk.

To cover this cost they need at least 270.000,000 in loot to drop. Now, if the ship's hull is worth a billion we are at 1,270,000,000 isk. Just shy of the 10x claim.

Most of the time, these guys are going after somebody who is fitting considerably more than 10x, more like 15x or 20x. In other wrods people are undocking in a ship that is worth over 2 billion isk...like a billion isk hull and a billion in modules. That is sure to be ganked...because the person fitting it was foolish and used such a fitting that when scanned would tempt just about anyone into considering ganking that ship.

And there is risk for the gankers. Scooping the loot gives you flag so anyone can shoot you. Also, all the good loot might not drop. If you are hoping a 500 million isk module drop, and if it doesn't you take a loss...well you might win, you might not. Sure the target always loses, but so what welcome to Eve Online a harsh, cruel and un-caring universe.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Edora Madullier
French Kiss Singularity
#49 - 2013-11-01 21:27:07 UTC
Zan Shiro wrote:
You dedicated empire bears don't have this happen. YOu don't voluntarily fly ships you know at some point will blow up to attempt to balance the isk flow. Enter ganking...if you won't complete the cycle of giving back some of the isk you made by choice, well then the game lets others make that choice for you.


You do realize a ship loss creates ISK with insurance, right?
Teckos Pech
Hogyoku
Goonswarm Federation
#50 - 2013-11-01 21:30:05 UTC
Freedom Equality wrote:
The ganker just get a group going and withing minutes ganks someone then a new ships and another victim and so on.

You can not expect that a miner or a guy doing missions will keep 10 people around him at all times waiting for the gankers.

Also, as i just said, if you do the math a gank can not fail.


Sure it can.

You are talking about averages--i.e. you are implicitly appealing to the law of large numbers here. However, any single gank can fail. Not enough DPS (i.e. you get unlucky in your shots, DPS is not assured), maybe he has a boosting ship, or maybe that item you were hoping to drop to make a profit does not.

Any single gank can "fail". Only on average--i.e. after a sizable number of ganks, are you assured of a profit.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."--Friedrich August von Hayek

8 Golden Rules for EVE Online

Petrified
Old and Petrified Syndication
#51 - 2013-11-01 22:21:18 UTC
An interesting idea. But I would have to agree with a prior poster: if you add such fines remove concord intervention or significantly delay it.

There is a better way to deal with suicide gankers: don't make the kill worthwhile. A tanked procurer costs more to gank than a tanked mackinaw. A double wrapped cargo in a freighter makes it impossible to gauge the worth of the freighter you wish to kill or have killed. Flying ships without officer fits on missions makes you less likely to be ganked than t2 fittings.

Fly as if you will be attacked by another player regardless of what you are doing (omni tanking instead of no tank or rat specific tank) will discourage most ganking, but not all.

Oh and if they did add such a change as fines, then they should fix insurance to cover the cost of losing a T2 ship instead of basing it on the T1 hull value.

Cloaking is the closest thing to a "Pause Game" button one can get while in space.

Support better localization for the Japanese Community.

Sir Prometeus
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#52 - 2013-11-02 00:57:12 UTC  |  Edited by: Sir Prometeus
Freedom Equality wrote:
Hello,

I have recently returned to EVE and i noticed that there is a lot of suicide ganking, with corps dedicated to it. While i agree they should be allowed to do it, i think it should be more like real life, where if you murder a person the police does not come to destroy your car while allowing you to walk away with all the belongings of the person you murdered.

The Ideea:

CONCORD should give people a fine valued at the total value of the hull.(without fitting)

Why will this work well across the board?

If you are solo ganking an industrial that has cargo of value, the added cost for the lone Stealth Bomber will be the price of the Indy Hull - a small price to pay and it will reflect that industrials are cheap and take little skill to get into.

If you gank a Freighter the fine will be 1bil-1.5bil(the market price of the freighter) but it will be divided so that each person on that kill mail pays an equal sum.

For ex: Freighter cost = 1bil and it was suicide ganked by 10 people = each ganker will pay a fine of 100 mil.

The same would happen if the target is a non hauler ship, making it more risky to equip a T1 Battleship with expensive modules vs a Marauder for example.

Why is this needed?

Because ganking people in high sec is now so inexpensive there are people doing it for the "LULZ". While i think that no Freighter should be completely safe when it hauls expensive cargo, i also think that if you gank an expensive ship that has no deadspace/officer mods on it, you should lose enough isk so that you are unable to just keep doing it all day long.

This way no rebalancing is needed and the suicide gankers can still gank what they like just like it is now, BUT it will now cost them something AND it will help inflation as they money taken from the gankers will be given to CONCORD(esentially taking them out of the game).

EDIT: Another ideea i just had is to have CONCORD show up at random time intervals, sometimes very fast sometimes slower. This would add some risk for the gankers. And it would fit EVE well.

EDIT: Another idea:

Lena Lazair wrote:
Assuming anything needs to change with ganking at all (hint, it doesn't, but I'm playing along today), I vote we get rid of KMs for ganks. No more ganking for killboard padding.

Profitable cargo ganking remains as-is, but no more empty JFs or blingy mission boats getting popped just to make someone's KB look pretty. Not that it'll stop all ganking for lulz, but there you go. This idea is genius.


We appreciate your idea, but just like it happened with mine (check here: https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=3744373#post3744373 ) anything with the potential to kill the golden egg hen which is suicide ganking will face tons of people opposing to it.

Would you like to support any idea to prevent you from mining 500b Arkonor rocks per hour?


EDIT: The best thing you can do is get a group of people, learn about how to gank freighters and do it. It is a Win-Win situation no matter if it gets balanced or not
Photon Ceray
Palmyra Universal Enterprise
#53 - 2013-11-02 02:51:33 UTC
a freighter can be ganked by 200m worth of catalysts, so any freighter carrying stuff worth more than 400m is under risk of being ganked.

Seriously, a ship that takes 3-4 months to train for, and 4-12 months to get the isk for, can be ganked by catalysts that take 3-4 weeks to train, and 45 minutes to get the isk for, and all this takes place in HIGH SECURITY systems!

Worst of all, most of those poor scrubs who get ganked have no idea it's even POSSIBLE to get killed in high sec, because it' not explained f*ing anywhere to them!

This is a laughable game design by any standards. no self respecting company would allow such a farce continue so long. it took CCP years just to remove insurance on gankers.


my ideas to improve things:

1- EXPLAIN and make a tutorial about suicide ganking so that poor noobs stop getting shat on for no fault other than not being informed.

2- change the mechanics and penalties in a way that a freighter should be able to safely carry at least 4b worth of stuff before it becomes gank worthy.

3- increase the penalties on suicide ganking dramatically, it's something that should be done only with a lot of consideration and risk, not some childs play that can be done on the whim without any serious consequences.
ShahFluffers
Ice Fire Warriors
#54 - 2013-11-02 04:19:51 UTC  |  Edited by: ShahFluffers
Photon Ceray wrote:
1- EXPLAIN and make a tutorial about suicide ganking so that poor noobs stop getting shat on for no fault other than not being informed.

This I can get behind... though, how so many people think that suicide ganking won't ever happen in high-sec is absolutely astounding.
We have had events like Hulkageddon and Burn Jita in EVE (the latter of which was actually publicized by legitimate news sites)... And EVE has a well known reputation for terrible things (by gaming standards) happening to people by other people.

Photon Ceray wrote:
2- change the mechanics and penalties in a way that a freighter should be able to safely carry at least 4b worth of stuff before it becomes gank worthy.

You only raise the bar for ganking and it will still happen... then people will complain some more that the bar should be raised.

But that's besides the point. Why should a player flying solo (freighter or not) be able to be safe against the efforts of multiple people?

Photon Ceray wrote:
3- increase the penalties on suicide ganking dramatically, it's something that should be done only with a lot of consideration and risk, not some childs play that can be done on the whim without any serious consequences.

As mentioned before... there are a few costs and/or risks already involved with ganking.

- Going -10: unless you want to keep spending a couple of hundred million to raise your security status ever few days, you'll be permanently engagable by anyone in the game. This means no more casual shopping for supplies in trade-hubs unless...
--- you get an alt... which costs another subscription (or PLEX).
--- you get a friend to buy and move stuff for you... which becomes costly as friends often charge fees and work on their timetable, not yours.
--- you buy from low-sec hubs... which are expensive and often don't have what you want or need.

- Effort: this is a big one. Amassing enough mouth breathers to sit and wait for the right target to be picked out is no small feat. The term "herding cats" is applicable here.

- No guarantees: You can crunch numbers all you want... there are always those few factors that will throw a wrench into the whole operation and make failure a possibility.
Some examples:
--- you can get a bad warp in (because the target is moving)... which results in more than a few people not applying their damage properly and not getting through the target's tank.
--- the target can have warfare boosters (or friendly remote repairs) that you didn't see and/or factor in... which means that his/her tank is stiffer than you calculated and you can't penetrate it all the way (this can be used to great effect on freighters).
--- the gank is successful but because the Random Number Generator (a.k.a. "Loot Fairy") is "grumpy" none of the stuff you want drops... meaning you have to eat the whole cost of the gank.
--- the gank is successful and the loot you want drops... but the target had a friend (or some random opportunistic person) sitting right next to him/her and grabs all the loot before your guys can. You now eat the whole cost of the gank.
--- there is a target that requires multiple people to kill... but not enough of your guys are online (or you don't have enough alts). The gank never happens.


If you think that the above is easy or dismiss it as being "not that bad" then I invite you to try your hand at ganking. The perception people have of it (which is only the end result) is very different from the reality.


Quote:
Seriously, a ship that takes 3-4 months to train for, and 4-12 months to get the isk for, can be ganked by catalysts that take 3-4 weeks to train, and 45 minutes to get the isk for,

A capital can be locked down and swarmed by ships not even half its value. A Tech 2 HAC worth 200+ mil can be nuked by a four or five destroyers worth 10 mil a pop.

Cost and skills only confer limited advantages in certain situations... not "I win by being richer/having better skills."
Gigan Amilupar
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#55 - 2013-11-02 04:45:34 UTC  |  Edited by: Gigan Amilupar
Photon Ceray wrote:
a freighter can be ganked by 200m worth of catalysts, so any freighter carrying stuff worth more than 400m is under risk of being ganked.

Seriously, a ship that takes 3-4 months to train for, and 4-12 months to get the isk for, can be ganked by catalysts that take 3-4 weeks to train, and 45 minutes to get the isk for, and all this takes place in HIGH SECURITY systems!

Worst of all, most of those poor scrubs who get ganked have no idea it's even POSSIBLE to get killed in high sec, because it' not explained f*ing anywhere to them!

This is a laughable game design by any standards. no self respecting company would allow such a farce continue so long. it took CCP years just to remove insurance on gankers.


my ideas to improve things:

1- EXPLAIN and make a tutorial about suicide ganking so that poor noobs stop getting shat on for no fault other than not being informed.

2- change the mechanics and penalties in a way that a freighter should be able to safely carry at least 4b worth of stuff before it becomes gank worthy.

3- increase the penalties on suicide ganking dramatically, it's something that should be done only with a lot of consideration and risk, not some childs play that can be done on the whim without any serious consequences.


Challenge Accepted.

Firstly, why do training times factor into this? Are you arguing that something that takes longer to train for needs to be inherently superior to something that it a faster train? If that is the case, why can HIC's hold down titans? It takes a lot longer and much more investment to get into a titan, so surely they should be immune to a mere cruiser by that logic.

Secondly, I think it's fairly clear it possible to break the rules regarding highsec. I'm a new player, I've been subscribed for less then a year. And I learned almost instantly that it was possible to perform illegal actions, as it was mentioned that stealing from cans would result in being flagged. Combine that not so subtle hint that illegality is possible with the fact that many players talk about ganking fairly regularly in any form of eve-related media, news or informative site (like these forums for instance) and I feel like I have never been in the dark about the subject.

Thirdly, this is hardly laughable game design. Actions have consequence, breaking the "law" in highsec results in death, that's the price you pay. Again, I feel like this is fairly obvious.

Now, for your improvements.

1) I was never ganked as a noob. I've heard that griefing is possible, and I've also heard that it is a quick way to a ban. Fact is, the majority of people getting ganked are not noobs, they are people who fly unaware as I will explain.

2) You say that a freighter should be able to safely carry 4b. Why exactly is that? That's an arbitrary number. And a rather large arbitrary number I might add. No noob is flying with 4b in cargo, they probably have 10-20m in cargo. Hardly worth a suicide gank. And if a noob is flying with that much, good on them, because clearly they have mastered the way to make ISK quite early into the game. Saying that a freighter should be able to safely carry 4b in goods is quite frankly, ridiculous. That (from my point of view, at least) is a lot of money to be flying around with. It stands to reason someone would want to take precautions with hauling that much. If you want to move it safely, distribute it amongst several contracts with appropriate collateral. Or do haul it yourself, but with other pilots you've hired or simply made friends with guarding you against non-alpha ganks. Fit a tank, doing so will increase your life expectancy if you do get attacked, which, considering the gankers have a limited window to kill you seems like a very good idea me. Don't autopilot, that's stupid. And finally, if you do really want to move that much alone, then understand the risk and don't complain if you get killed. It's like walking through a bad neighborhood in a tuxedo while carrying bags of cash. Not a great idea, but hey, your money, your life, and if you get killed and don't whine about it I'll at least call you courageous.

3) How is it that suicide ganking is done on a whim without consequence? Gankers watch for targets, scan them to see if they are of value and then die in a ball of fire to achieve their objective. And if after all that they manage to turn a profit, that's due to luck and certainly isn't some quantifiable constant income. And while yes, ganking can be done on a whim, gankers still face the consequence for it. They still die in the aforementioned ball of fire. And if they are wealthy enough or are being paid to do so then that's hardly an argument that the system is broken it's simply a case of players putting money upfront to achieve something, regardless of how pointless or how important the objective may be in the grand scheme of things.

TL;DR: Ganking is hardly an issue due to players being uninformed. It's only an issue due to people taking high risks. And while it sucks to feel at risk or that your play style is being interrupted, I think it's fair to say you need to be prepared for it. I do missions in a navy battleship and I'm going to dock up if I see 50 flashy pilots spike local. It's an interference, but I need to ask myself "is it worth the risk?". Any attempt to remove that question from pilots minds is a bad idea. Even more so in highsec. If players don't ever need to ask themselves that question then it just creates an even bigger barrier to getting players into more dangerous space. Especially for new players.

Edit: Dangit ShahFluffers, once again I find myself replying to a post with a long answer right after you do the same thing. Stop taking my kills P
ShahFluffers
Ice Fire Warriors
#56 - 2013-11-02 05:45:36 UTC
Gigan Amilupar wrote:
Edit: Dangit ShahFluffers, once again I find myself replying to a post with a long answer right after you do the same thing. Stop taking my kills P

With this subject there is no such thing as overkill. Smile
Sipphakta en Gravonere
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#57 - 2013-11-02 09:56:58 UTC
Photon Ceray wrote:
a freighter can be ganked by 200m worth of catalysts, so any freighter carrying stuff worth more than 400m is under risk of being ganked.


If it were easy to gank a freighter with such minimal value, there'd be a lot more dead freighters.

Quote:
Seriously, a ship that takes 3-4 months to train for, and 4-12 months to get the isk for, can be ganked by catalysts that take 3-4 weeks to train, and 45 minutes to get the isk for, and all this takes place in HIGH SECURITY systems!


A fresh character needs 36d4h3m20s to get into a freighter, that's hardly "3-4 months" of training. Also, why exactly should training time and ISK value matter here? Do you want to make this game even harder for new players?

Quote:
my ideas to improve things:

1- EXPLAIN and make a tutorial about suicide ganking so that poor noobs stop getting shat on for no fault other than not being informed.


Agreed.

Quote:
2- change the mechanics and penalties in a way that a freighter should be able to safely carry at least 4b worth of stuff before it becomes gank worthy.


This is not needed, freighter ganks are extremely rare.

Quote:
3- increase the penalties on suicide ganking dramatically, it's something that should be done only with a lot of consideration and risk, not some childs play that can be done on the whim without any serious consequences.


Suicide ganking seems pretty balanced at the moment, compared to the numbers of Industrials/Freighters/Mission runners, only very very few die to ganks each day.
baltec1
Bat Country
Pandemic Horde
#58 - 2013-11-02 11:26:41 UTC
Only 30 to 40 freighters are suicide ganked on average a month out of half a million to a million trips made by freighters every month in high sec.

Sir Prometeus
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#59 - 2013-11-02 12:09:42 UTC  |  Edited by: Sir Prometeus
I did a rough estimation with Confederation of XXXPizzaXXX killboard and this is the result

Each player invests 10m in a Catalyst

If the freighter's drop is around 1b (usual lowest drop), each player gets 45m

If the freighter's drop is around 3b (average drop), each player gets 136m (rough estimate)

Now tell me that getting 450% of your investment in the usual worst case is not an extremely profitable bussiness even when loot fairy strikes with its fury against you and the drop is zero. And in the average situation, your revenue is 1360%

Btw, after getting an alter able to fly a catalyst with their fitting, I'll apply to join in the public pizza fleets. It would be plain stupid not to do it.
Sipphakta en Gravonere
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#60 - 2013-11-02 12:22:54 UTC
Sir Prometeus wrote:
If the freighter's drop is around 1b (usual lowest drop), each player gets 45m

If the freighter's drop is around 3b (average drop), each player gets 136m (rough estimate)


If the average drop is 3B that means that the average value of freighters ganked is 6Billion ISK. Your number seems a little bit high.

Quote:
Now tell me that getting 450% of your investment in the usual worst case is not an extremely profitable bussiness even when loot fairy strikes with its fury against you and the drop is zero. And in the average situation, your revenue is 1360%


Few things:

1. You don't factor in the amount of people needed that are involved in ganking. e.g. Bumpers, Looter, Aggressor.
2. You don't factor in waiting time
3. You don't factor in that your loot could get stolen, the wreck blown up, your looter caught etc.
4. You don't factor in the number of failed ganks due to white knights with ECM, Logi or anti-Destroyer ships

If freighter ganking was so easy and profitable, you'd see a lot more freighters ganked.