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Market Discussions

 
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Let's talk about plex, baby

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Cassuriel
School of Applied Knowledge
Caldari State
#81 - 2011-11-15 18:49:17 UTC
It's nothing complicated, just Supply vs Demand.

There's more demand than there is supply.

rogueclone2 wrote:
IceFyre S18 wrote:
rogueclone2 wrote:
right now isk has a higher value then RLM .


How'so? Don't get it.


i just may. in 30 day's when i buy my next plexs. if i have to pay over 400 mil for a plex i will stop playing eve


While it would be a great loss to lose any member of our glorious community, it would have the side effect of creating less demand, and thus you would in your own small way have the effect on Plex prices that you desire. Less Demand > lower prices.

Of course, thats little consolation if you've quit.
Shizuken
Venerated Stars
#82 - 2011-11-15 21:14:37 UTC
Sator Nyatt wrote:
Companion Qube wrote:
You could make a guess that virtually all of the people who were willing to throw $200 at plex did so en-masse during the two discount promotions. That action flooded the market which drove speculators to hoard stacks of plex and drive the price right back up. Now, you'd normally have people willing to trickle more plex in to the market which would stabilize the price, but I'm guessing all of those people already made their space billions buying plex and dumping them during an earlier promotion.

TL;DR: My guess? CCP front-loaded plex market supply for some months with the bulk sales, now those people who would be trickling plex in on a daily basis aren't. edit: Instead, you've got speculators trickling plex back out at inflated prices. People like me, only, this time it wasn't me - I swear Pirate

Up, up and away! (until the next sale anouncement.)


While your argument sounds valid, unfortunately you're basically making it up.

The last 12 months worth of Plex data in The Forge shows that there has been a slight increase in volume traded in plex, and certainly no downward trend in orders placed or numbers of plex traded. Moreover, its only been since plex started nudging past the 400 mil mark you've seen the plex drives, bulk deals, plex instead of time for buddies, most recently 3 plex for power of two or 180 days game time.

You could argue that its a drying up of the market, and supplies aren't coming in, which is possible, although . With 2000+ plex traded a day, accounting for approximately 1/5 of the game time needed, you could make the argument that not all the plex being traded is being consumed.

I would suggest that tech traders are no longer seeing much return in technetium so they're shifting over to plex as another large item that is traded consistenly. I'd also combine this with a recent drop in fresh numbers of plex being put on the market, which has something to do with the supercap nerf (a titan used to cost an entire day's worth of plex trading in jita) and uncertainty surrounding these ships making people not willing to plex it up to get their super pilots and ships.

Without the fresh sellers coming in its probably a lot of traders just passing plex around. 2000 (in jita alone) plex traded daily would account for about 1/5 of the subscription base, but without any numbers on how many people CC their account vs. PLEX, amount consumed per day versus traded per day is just a complete blind guess.


I agree with this dude. The volume of sales has been at least constant. The increase in price is driven by a drying up supply. Whether this is speculators or people actually consuming them for game time, AUR, or other accounts one cannot say. If it is speculation though, the market will crash, and fast. When it starts, it will already be too late for most.
Mr Bill Bravor
State War Academy
Caldari State
#83 - 2011-11-15 21:29:57 UTC
There is a rumor that the new ship skins will be bought with Aurum so my guess is that people are hoarding their plex for when the winter expansion goes online. This will essentially create a greater demand for plex. How long the demand stays high will depend on if the skins need to be replaced if the ship gets popped or not.

Anybody have an official answer if that rumor is true or not?
Razz XXX
Vashta Nerada Corp
#84 - 2011-11-15 21:39:54 UTC
Jita at 513 but still see future above 600+. I'm starting to see some smaller regions at 600+.
Killstealing
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#85 - 2011-11-15 21:54:01 UTC
go sleep for an hour

plex prices at 514m in jita

hahahaha oh lord this will be a hard month to buy 4 of those
Alisarina
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
#86 - 2011-11-15 22:51:38 UTC
I threw up 5 of my stock I picked up at 400 mill earlier at 560 mill and they sold last night...going to suck when they break 600 mill per next week if the price jumping trend continues, however going to be nice for profit margins when they do go higher.
Claire Voyant
#87 - 2011-11-16 00:02:13 UTC
Shizuken wrote:
If it is speculation though, the market will crash, and fast. When it starts, it will already be too late for most.

The current forecast is for speculator tears beginning by this weekend, building heavily for the next three months.
Marty Chang
Podkill Society
#88 - 2011-11-16 00:17:24 UTC  |  Edited by: Marty Chang
Do you think prices will go down to 400m again one day ?
Or are we just gonna have to buy our plexes 900m next year ?
IceFyre S18
Zulu Labs
#89 - 2011-11-16 00:54:42 UTC
Claire Voyant wrote:
Shizuken wrote:
If it is speculation though, the market will crash, and fast. When it starts, it will already be too late for most.

The current forecast is for speculator tears beginning by this weekend, building heavily for the next three months.


Yarrrrr
David Clausewitz
David Clausewitz Corporation
#90 - 2011-11-16 00:57:06 UTC
I hope they go back down to around 400mill soon.
IceFyre S18
Zulu Labs
#91 - 2011-11-16 01:07:46 UTC
David Clausewitz wrote:
I hope they go back down to around 400mill soon.


All eyes are to CCP.
Basically we need new players and expensive shinny stuff.
Dirty Weegie
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#92 - 2011-11-16 06:40:01 UTC
IceFyre S18 wrote:
David Clausewitz wrote:
I hope they go back down to around 400mill soon.


All eyes are to CCP.
Basically we need new players and expensive shinny stuff.



People dont sell plex for expensive stuff anymore... they run incursions. I used to sell a plex now and again to get some extra isk for a new ship or faction mod i needed. I no longer need to do this.

For anyone that hasnt run an incursion the average pay when the fleet gets running is 80-100 mil an hour. I have 4 accounts and still have no problem plexing all 4 when im making 300 or 400 mil a day.

No one is puying extra plex to sell on the market becuase there is a massive isk fountain in EVE now.


Proof that the system is broken.. I know people moving back to empire from null because the isk is better in empire... i was of the understanding it was meant to be the other way around.


Only way to fix the the problem is hit incursions with the nerf bat... which i really dont want to happen Big smile

If you can't win fair... Cheat

TDR is Recruiting
Claire Voyant
#93 - 2011-11-16 14:17:20 UTC
Marty Chang wrote:
Do you think prices will go down to 400m again one day ?
Or are we just gonna have to buy our plexes 900m next year ?

You do realize these are not mutually exclusive.
Claire Voyant
#94 - 2011-11-16 14:29:11 UTC
Dirty Weegie wrote:
No one is puying extra plex to sell on the market becuase there is a massive isk fountain in EVE now.

It looks like that massive isk fountain is being used to speculate in PLEX.

Hint: The longer these prices are maintained over the next few weeks, the more PLEX will come into the game, and the deeper and harder the crash will be. I'm looking forward to it.
Acorn FB
THE GOLDEN KNIGHTS
Shadow Ultimatum
#95 - 2011-11-16 22:10:36 UTC
I am afraid you completly missed the point of the previous poster, he is an example of a person who moved from a supplier of plex to a consumer of plex, simply because of the disaster that is Incursions. I am pretty sure there are plenty of people in this catagory who spend a 4-5 days a month "making money" and the rest spending it, and whatever the shortfall is made up in plex. They do not mind spending the money from the outside so they bought plex.

For example a person who spends 20-25 hours a month earned them 800 mil to a billion missioning so they needed a little more for multiple account, cool toys etc and they paid for their account with money. Now they run Incursion and make 1.6 billion to 2.5 billion and that covers all the toys and maybe the plex for the alt account, so this guy went from a net 1 supplier of plex per month to a net -2 consumer of plex in a month.

I think this is a huge impact on the market, maybe wrong but it pretty much has to be part of it.
Kuzzka
Perkone
Caldari State
#96 - 2011-11-17 08:03:17 UTC
I better stop playing EVE rather than paying 1.5 billion mounthly for my 3 accounts. If greedy part of EVE community want to see PLEX "consumers" leave, then it should be so.
Diomedes Calypso
Aetolian Armada
#97 - 2011-11-17 21:23:42 UTC
Acorn FB wrote:
I am afraid you completly missed the point of the previous poster, he is an example of a person who moved from a supplier of plex to a consumer of plex, simply because of the disaster that is Incursions. I am pretty sure there are plenty of people in this catagory who spend a 4-5 days a month "making money" and the rest spending it, and whatever the shortfall is made up in plex. They do not mind spending the money from the outside so they bought plex.

For example a person who spends 20-25 hours a month earned them 800 mil to a billion missioning so they needed a little more for multiple account, cool toys etc and they paid for their account with money. Now they run Incursion and make 1.6 billion to 2.5 billion and that covers all the toys and maybe the plex for the alt account, so this guy went from a net 1 supplier of plex per month to a net -2 consumer of plex in a month.

I think this is a huge impact on the market, maybe wrong but it pretty much has to be part of it.



We don't know how isolated his experience is... and he may have been getting to the power missioner level anyway without incursions... but all things being equal I'll trust his own words.

This change would point to a drop in volume, or if not a drop in volume a commensurate increase in people creating and selling isk to make up for the supply he and other's like him curtailed.

All in all if true we can surmise:
- (If above) people spendint $ are getting more isk per $ l
- people running excusrions are geting more Isk per hour
- people who don't enjoy running excursions or don't believe in spending incremental $ to achieve game goals are seprated that much further than before from those two groups.

CCP still depends on regurlar subscribers for a very very large percentage of their income. If people paying one subscripton a month feel increasingly seperated in resources, it becomes a game play issue. Of course this has always been something that existed, but vast differences were more left to outliers than the incursions theory coupled with steady plex volume realiizng higher isk per $ suggests.

.
Dirty Weegie
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
#98 - 2011-11-18 11:19:33 UTC
Diomedes Calypso wrote:
Acorn FB wrote:
I am afraid you completly missed the point of the previous poster, he is an example of a person who moved from a supplier of plex to a consumer of plex, simply because of the disaster that is Incursions. I am pretty sure there are plenty of people in this catagory who spend a 4-5 days a month "making money" and the rest spending it, and whatever the shortfall is made up in plex. They do not mind spending the money from the outside so they bought plex.

For example a person who spends 20-25 hours a month earned them 800 mil to a billion missioning so they needed a little more for multiple account, cool toys etc and they paid for their account with money. Now they run Incursion and make 1.6 billion to 2.5 billion and that covers all the toys and maybe the plex for the alt account, so this guy went from a net 1 supplier of plex per month to a net -2 consumer of plex in a month.

I think this is a huge impact on the market, maybe wrong but it pretty much has to be part of it.



We don't know how isolated his experience is... and he may have been getting to the power missioner level anyway without incursions... but all things being equal I'll trust his own words.

This change would point to a drop in volume, or if not a drop in volume a commensurate increase in people creating and selling isk to make up for the supply he and other's like him curtailed.

All in all if true we can surmise:
- (If above) people spendint $ are getting more isk per $ l
- people running excusrions are geting more Isk per hour
- people who don't enjoy running excursions or don't believe in spending incremental $ to achieve game goals are seprated that much further than before from those two groups.

CCP still depends on regurlar subscribers for a very very large percentage of their income. If people paying one subscripton a month feel increasingly seperated in resources, it becomes a game play issue. Of course this has always been something that existed, but vast differences were more left to outliers than the incursions theory coupled with steady plex volume realiizng higher isk per $ suggests.



Mission running dosnt come close to the amount of isk incursions pay out.

Roughly..

1 hour mission running in a machariel with a 1-2bil faction fit makes a MAXIMUM of 30 to 35 mil
1 hour incursion in a maelstrom with T2 fit and meta4 guns makes a MINIMUM of 60 to 65 mil

I have a guy in my corp thats 3 months old and is already running incursion. Meaning he will NEVER have to sell plex to buy shinny stuff as he now makes 300 million isk a day.

A large portion of the plex market is new players wanting to get shinny stuff fast without grinding hundreds of lvl4 missions just to get that faction mod or ship. With Incursions added to tthe game there is no longer a reason to buy plex with cash to sell for isk.

What would you rather do? Spend over $10 or just run incursions for ONE day to get that extra 400-500 mil for your new mach/NM/bhaal/vindi


The price will continue to rise as less and less plex are added to the market.

If you can't win fair... Cheat

TDR is Recruiting
Claire Voyant
#99 - 2011-11-19 02:18:00 UTC
IceFyre S18 wrote:
Claire Voyant wrote:
Shizuken wrote:
If it is speculation though, the market will crash, and fast. When it starts, it will already be too late for most.

The current forecast is for speculator tears beginning by this weekend, building heavily for the next three months.

Yarrrrr

Here comes the monsoon season, right on schedule.
Zifrian
The Frog Pond
Ribbit.
#100 - 2011-11-23 00:31:33 UTC
Here are some things I thought about on price increase. Trying to figure out what is causing it so I can plan. I play with plex I earn from industry and I could keep up with the increase, I'm just not sure I want to.

I thought about the RL economy, which hasn't really changed for a year+, so not sure if that's a reason. EU economy? Employment/unemployment is flat so not sure if that's a factor. But if not, then the plex bought with RLM would be pretty much constant?

Incursions seem to be more popular but I thought they were pretty popular a few months ago. Any idea on this? I did a bunch back in the day when it came out but haven't since. Are people doing more and more of these now? This patch came out in January and prices began going up in August. I'm not sure it took 8 months to find the new shiny isk maker. However, this is a new way the game injects isk into the game (Mission rewards and rat bounties the others). Maybe this lag had to catch up? If we assume a relatively constant supply of people buying plex with RL money and selling on market, more people with isk buys more plex in game?

What about Incarna and the Nex? I know it's not popular and I'm not personally interested, but are people buying plex to buy items? I do see quite a few monocles in poster avatars. I thought these things were so expensive people wouldn't buy? Assuming a relatively constant supply of people buying plex with RL money and selling on game market, this would cause lack of supply if more are buying for the Nex?

The plex offers CCP has done make a noticable dent in the trend, but it doesn't last long as most of that supply is purchased. I will probably jump on a few plex if they do one soon, but I don't see it affecting the overall price. Any thoughts of when this might plateau?

Finally, the QEN 2010 shows no real change in plex price as the supply of plex enters the market. So does this mean that isk is coming into the game faster now than supply can meet it? Not sure if plex prices came out in the monthly updates now or whatnot. Be interesting to see this data anyway.

Is this just incursions being the new shiny? Combination of that and Nex?

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