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Why CCP isn't going to care about current CSM tactics

First post
Author
Saerathus
Vocatio Ad Virtutem
#61 - 2011-09-09 06:41:45 UTC
Barricade Dark wrote:
Long post, with a lot of interesting topics, far to broad to reply to all at once, but the one that caught my attention was.

Quote:
"CCP needs us to finance their other games/CCP is killing their golden goose" - No, they don't. Don't deceive yourselves, the people that believe this. DUST and WoD have already had the bulk of their development costs paid for, they don't NEED Eve Online to remain running at its current level to keep from going out of business, and I would bet that they don't NEED Eve Online revenues at all to keep from going out of business. Does anyone here that knows how corporations work really think that CCP would embark on -two- CapEx projects simultaneously without being able to afford it? Do these people think that they were just spending every dollar that came in over the last 8 years? Even if Eve-O were to go offline tomorrow, even if they didn't have as much money as they thought they would need, they are a studio that has shown positive growth for 8 years, they will have NO problem getting funding to finish it from banks or investors. That being said, anyone that knows how corporations work also knows that CCP wouldn't just turn off Eve-O if it were making them money. Not only that, but I know myself that devs care about their own work, and as members of the CSM have said on multiple occasions the devs at FiS Central are as passionate about their game as they ever have been, and they have no desire to see Eve-O crater.


Actually their is substantial data already available thanks to various leaks at CCP that prove this to be very incorrect, quite to the contrary starting next month (October) CCP is already in over their heads and they will be unable to pay their loans without taking out more loans. WoD and Dust are two projects severly dependent on Eve Online for revenue because these projects where created and are being developed on borrowed money, so much of it that making the loan payments requires continued success and revenue from Eve to manage. More importantly is that DUST and WoD are very far off in terms of release, WoD's development has barely even got of the ground and DUST has been in the works since 2009 and they still have almost nothing to show us at all in terms of gameplay.

Eve is not only a central part of CCP's financial hopes, but a make it or break crutch. If Eve fails, the other two projects will collapse on their own weight and in fact you could say given that they are unable to pay their bills that they have already failed to manage the situation. Add to that the current economic plight world wide and the fact that DUST and WoD are both incredibly ambitious projects, coupled with a continued mishandling of their one and only source of cash and what you can is a pending disaster of epic proportions.

I think your analysis here is really off on this one.


Could you point me in the right direction re: the leaks?
Jett0
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#62 - 2011-09-09 06:41:45 UTC
Saerathus wrote:

...he's remarking on tone, not substance.


That is correct.

To reiterate a particular point: I am in no way passing judgement or taking sides. I truly think that whatever happens, this is a great game with a great community. Three years from now when we're all interacting in establishments, DUST is out, and WoD is making more money for EvE, we'll still be able to look at competing MMOs and sigh with pity.

And still flying some kickass internet spaceships.

Occasionally plays sober

Officer Spawn
Perkone
Caldari State
#63 - 2011-09-09 06:42:27 UTC
Eladaris wrote:

I'll agree with some of what you wrote... but CCP is funding at least some of their 600 staffers from the current sub. pool of Eve Online players. If, from your example, the Eve online player base suddenly went from X to Y, we'd certainly expect Dust to die as well. Which means not only has CCP lost a solid cash cow, they've also potentially wasted millions of development dollars on a title that will be stillborn.

That's totally ignoring the fact that every single cancelled sub means less profit for the company, and I'd imagine quite a few companies out there actually care about that.


Once DUST is launched there will still be an EVE to interact with for CCP to have the first real console FPS / PC MMO interaction. This is just as true with a 45.000 or 25.000 online player EVE universe. And whatever the mechanics are that this interaction uses there will be plenty of EVE players who will give the DUST troops something to do after launch, EVE players will try anything new and a lot will stick with it. Especially of spreadsheets are involved somehow. As it is now attacking PI facilities is pretty irrelevant but if Zealots and Guardians are suddenly produced only at planetary factories you'll see plenty of interest.

And a loss in subscribers is money lost, there is no denying that. But to me it seems clear CCP has decided some time ago spending, say 10 million on an amazing FiS expansion will not bring in as much new players (and money) as that same 10 million would spent making an entirely new game. The business case would go like this:

-Revenue from EVE subscriptions: 40 million a year
-Costs to keep EVE running: 25 million

Money free to spend on new things: 15 million.

-15 million spent on new EVE FiS content: + 2 million a year in subscription money
-15 million spent on new game: nothing now, + 10 million a year on new game subscriptions in 2 years, - 5 million in EVE subscriptions, -2 million in yearly EVE running costs, frees up 2 million in hardware





Meryl SinGarda
Belligerent Underpaid Tactical Team
#64 - 2011-09-09 06:42:54 UTC
AnzacPaul wrote:
The Mittani wrote:
There's always someone who will attempt to feign superior wisdom by prostrating themselves in front of authority, declaring the status quo unchangeable.



Kinda reminds me of someone 3 months ago all up in the videos with CCP saying how everything was just mis-communication.

Roll


This. This is all the needs to be said.
Barricade Dark
#65 - 2011-09-09 06:46:15 UTC
Quote:

Could you point me in the right direction re: the leaks?


Here is the financial report http://www.megaupload.com/?d=2G7AMIAW

Prince Kobol
#66 - 2011-09-09 06:46:29 UTC
This is why CCP do not have to release any statements and why they are not as stupid as some people think they are.

They know that if they keep silent at some the point the CSM will foot its collective foot in its mouth and take the heat of them.

Another reason why the CSM is failing bad.
Eladaris
Indefinite.
#67 - 2011-09-09 06:46:42 UTC  |  Edited by: Eladaris
Barricade Dark wrote:
Actually their is substantial data already available thanks to various leaks at CCP that prove this to be very incorrect, quite to the contrary starting next month (October) CCP is already in over their heads and they will be unable to pay their loans without taking out more loans.


If I recall the matter correctly, a Eve player from Iceland (either active or ex-player) walked into a government office several months ago and pulled their publicly available financial records. Those pointed to the fact that CCP was not doing poorly, per se, but that they did have a rather large loan that had to be repaid in October. Also I think a pretty hefty chunk of their corporate profits was from Eve Online subs. I hefty chunk of the company is already split between a very not well-to-do disgraced Icelandic banker who's probably not happy being suddenly poor, and some Venture Cap groups.

Jett0 wrote:
Saerathus wrote:

...he's remarking on tone, not substance.


That is correct.


Doh! Sorry then, was totally confused.
Jett0
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#68 - 2011-09-09 06:46:58 UTC
Eladaris wrote:

JettO's pissed...


No. I think there's enough of that to go around.

Occasionally plays sober

Luckytania
Bullets of Justice
#69 - 2011-09-09 06:47:57 UTC
Saerathus wrote:
... ended up buying a character for a little while so I could actually experience the game because I found the skill system to be ridiculous ...

I might go back and read the rest. But probably not.

With that opening right there you show that you didn't really want to play Eve Online. You wanted to play something easy.

The Skill system and the need to make ISK to buy additional tools/shinies, including additional Skills so you can eventually make more ISK, are foundational to the game. If you don't set goals, plan and strive to achieve goals you don't deserve them.

Eve is hard. That is its appeal.
When you achieve something with hard work you appreciate the accomplishment.

You want a Pay-to-Win game. I hope Eve Online doesn't reach a point where you are satisfied.

Please go back to cheating at Solitare.
Hrald
Dreddit
Test Alliance Please Ignore
#70 - 2011-09-09 06:51:51 UTC
Meryl SinGarda wrote:
AnzacPaul wrote:
The Mittani wrote:
There's always someone who will attempt to feign superior wisdom by prostrating themselves in front of authority, declaring the status quo unchangeable.



Kinda reminds me of someone 3 months ago all up in the videos with CCP saying how everything was just mis-communication.

Roll


This. This is all the needs to be said.

You mean when people thought that CCP was actually going to implement 'gold ammo' when it was just an internal memo that had zero bearing on actual creative direction which The Mittani had to go to Iceland at the drop of a hat to put the record straight?

Man, you guys are such shitposters. First using someone abiding by an NDA as criticism of the CSM, then whining when a CSM member works with CCP to uncover the truth behind a matter causing player upheaval? Just stop.
Othran
Route One
#71 - 2011-09-09 06:57:06 UTC  |  Edited by: Othran
Saerathus wrote:


Could you point me in the right direction re: the leaks?



Its not a "leak". Someone in Iceland went down to their equivalent of Companies House and paid for a copy of the 2010 accounts.

Basically it shows a loan due for repayment next month which CCP has to repay and they'll have to go back to their investors/shareholders for another round of funding in order to continue work on WoD/Dust.

At least one of those investors will say no - the guy concerned is yet another dodgy Icelandic "businessman" who is up to his eyeballs in debt and court cases (I'm told by a friend in Iceland its quite likely he'll be doing some jail time, but I have no idea if that's true or not). The investors (if they have a single brain cell between them) won't let CCP go anywhere near any other sources of funding (like a bank) as that'll have first call on repayment and also may insist on some collateral.

CCP are burning all the revenue from Eve and then some on WoD/Dust dev. IIRC they're burning $25mill/year on WoD/Dust

If you go have a look on www.failheap-challenge.com there's an analysis there - somewhere. Also on the old forums.

The tl;dr of it all is that Eve is exceptionally profitable but the costs of WoD and Dust mean that CCP has significant cashflow problems.

Edit - oh and it might be relevant to consider that the founders of CCP don't even hold 10% of the shares these days. Personally I think you can trace the changes in CCP back to the point the ex-Citigroup/Goldman Sachs/whatever wanker joined the board in April 2009.
Barricade Dark
#72 - 2011-09-09 06:57:12 UTC
Quote:
If I recall the matter correctly, a Eve player from Iceland (either active or ex-player) walked into a government office several months ago and pulled their publicly available financial records. Those pointed to the fact that CCP was not doing poorly, per se, but that they did have a rather large loan that had to be repaid in October. Also I think a pretty hefty chunk of their corporate profits was from Eve Online subs. I hefty chunk of the company is already split between a very not well-to-do disgraced Icelandic banker who's probably not happy being suddenly poor, and some Venture Cap groups.


Thats basically the jist of it.

All and all though CCP's financials are in good shape given their economics, but the entire company effectively lives off the revenues from Eve and they do not have enough cash to even go a month without revenues from Eve. Another words, if they shut it down this month, next month they would not have any money to pay salaries with or anything else for that matter. The company would fold literly over night without Eve. Which is the only aspect of the posters analysis that is incorrect, I think he's got a good handle on everything else.

But there is no mistake about it, without Eve their is no CCP, no DUST and No WoD. Its entire financial future relies on Eve.
AnzacPaul
Tactical Farmers.
Tactical Farmers
#73 - 2011-09-09 06:58:31 UTC
Hrald wrote:
Meryl SinGarda wrote:
AnzacPaul wrote:
The Mittani wrote:
There's always someone who will attempt to feign superior wisdom by prostrating themselves in front of authority, declaring the status quo unchangeable.



Kinda reminds me of someone 3 months ago all up in the videos with CCP saying how everything was just mis-communication.

Roll


This. This is all the needs to be said.

You mean when people thought that CCP was actually going to implement 'gold ammo' when it was just an internal memo that had zero bearing on actual creative direction which The Mittani had to go to Iceland at the drop of a hat to put the record straight?

Man, you guys are such shitposters. First using someone abiding by an NDA as criticism of the CSM, then whining when a CSM member works with CCP to uncover the truth behind a matter causing player upheaval? Just stop.


I see alot of words, but your not saying anything.

A) No subscribers asked mittani to go to Iceland, he did that of his own and CCP's accord. There is no reason why the meetings couldn't have taken place on skype.

B)You think CCP flew the CSM to Iceland because they had no plans to release items which they had to classify as "non-vanity" only after talks with what the CSM thought was advisable.

C) I think you should go back and read Hilmars leaked mail. He clearly makes reference to getting the point across via "Fearless newsletter" as well as other outlets. You clearly see CCP Devs claiming that Eve is a golden goose to be milked for cash, and that "I would love to introduce more than vanity items".

D) They tried to release a scorpion on the nex store without it requiring a normal hull from market, whilst they implemented the code needed (HINT: They never planned on people requiring a normal scorpion to purchase the nex store one). CSM agreed for I believe a week only period?

Do I really need to go on?
Saerathus
Vocatio Ad Virtutem
#74 - 2011-09-09 07:01:15 UTC
Luckytania wrote:
Saerathus wrote:
... ended up buying a character for a little while so I could actually experience the game because I found the skill system to be ridiculous ...

I might go back and read the rest. But probably not.

With that opening right there you show that you didn't really want to play Eve Online. You wanted to play something easy.

The Skill system and the need to make ISK to buy additional tools/shinies, including additional Skills so you can eventually make more ISK, are foundational to the game. If you don't set goals, plan and strive to achieve goals you don't deserve them.

Eve is hard. That is its appeal.
When you achieve something with hard work you appreciate the accomplishment.

You want a Pay-to-Win game. I hope Eve Online doesn't reach a point where you are satisfied.

Please go back to cheating at Solitare.


Oh boy, like I haven't seen enough of these posts. No, I didn't want to play something easy. I wanted to play a GAME WITH SPACE SHIPS. Last I looked that's what Eve was, wasn't it? I'm pretty sure it was. I can go check. Oh, it's Space Simulation and MMORPG.

I'm pretty sure the genre of the game is not "E-Ball Buster".

It's appeal for some is the difficulty. The appeal for others is to enjoy a space sandbox. Personally I can speak for myself, after spending two months doing nothing but flying around in a frigate while my training skills went up, and then playing for an additional 2 months having my friends drag me incessantly through missions making me feel like I was extra baggage, I decided that I wasn't interested in paying for a game for a year in order to start enjoying all it had to offer - and instead of walking away from it like any sane person would do, I opted instead to trade off some money for my much more valuable time. A few months later I found that I didn't enjoy the game because a) I had skipped content and b) said skipping had deprived me of building a sense of community. So I got rid of it.

You're welcome to criticize me as much as you want, but the assumption that I -want- Pay to Win is dumb.
RougeOperator
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#75 - 2011-09-09 07:06:34 UTC
Hrald wrote:
Meryl SinGarda wrote:
AnzacPaul wrote:
The Mittani wrote:
There's always someone who will attempt to feign superior wisdom by prostrating themselves in front of authority, declaring the status quo unchangeable.



Kinda reminds me of someone 3 months ago all up in the videos with CCP saying how everything was just mis-communication.

Roll


This. This is all the needs to be said.

You mean when people thought that CCP was actually going to implement 'gold ammo' when it was just an internal memo that had zero bearing on actual creative direction which The Mittani had to go to Iceland at the drop of a hat to put the record straight?

Man, you guys are such shitposters. First using someone abiding by an NDA as criticism of the CSM, then whining when a CSM member works with CCP to uncover the truth behind a matter causing player upheaval? Just stop.


Did you not pick up on the fact that Hilmars Email basically said the MEMO was what they were working towards?

That memo was never just a "what if" thing. It was the guide for the employees on the direction the company is going. Get on board of drown is usually what that means to the workers. Its the kool aid they are told to drink.

**Space wizards are real, they can make 10058 votes vanish. "and for a moment i hurd 10k goons cry out, then silence" **

Apollo Gabriel
Kill'em all. Let Bob sort'em out.
Ushra'Khan
#76 - 2011-09-09 07:10:54 UTC
I am cutting out magazine letters as we speak, I likez making letters hillmarz!!

Fix Spaceships!! BUGS should NEVER live for yearz!
Always ... Never ... Forget to check your references.   Peace out Zulu! Hope you land well!
Saerathus
Vocatio Ad Virtutem
#77 - 2011-09-09 07:12:56 UTC
Hrald wrote:
First using someone abiding by an NDA as criticism of the CSM.


If you could clarify here:

You defend the CSM using the NDA as something to hide behind when they don't want to talk about something? The CSM delegate was the one that brought it up in the first place.

"A fine collection of thoughts but, as I said, flawed on a fundamental level as you've simply generated connective bridges between available facts, connective bridges which I can tell you with authority that are misplaced."

I think most people that defend using an NDA in this manner have never read an NDA. When you are under an NDA, you aren't even supposed to indicate that information presented to you is covered by an NDA. How do you usually see people respond when presented with questions they can't answer?

"No comment."

Instead we get this sort of nebulous denial that basically amounts to responding with "words." The CSM delegate in this case should have either responded to the things they knew and could respond to, which were correct and not, and then not commented on the NDA aspects at all. Either that, or nothing at all.

I don't have a problem with people respecting an NDA. However, I have a huge problem with people saying "some things you say are wrong, but I can't tell you what they are or why." And I think that is more or less what everyone else was pointing out as well.
Barricade Dark
#78 - 2011-09-09 07:17:19 UTC
Quote:
Did you not pick up on the fact that Hilmars Email basically said the MEMO was what they were working towards?

That memo was never just a "what if" thing. It was the guide for the employees on the direction the company is going. Get on board of drown is usually what that means to the workers. Its the kool aid they are told to drink.


Agreed. It was actually more than just a company direction memo, it was quite clear that is was a company directive. This was not a document Hilmar wanted the public to see and its exactly why it was leaked. In a lot of ways it was the catalyst for positive change and its most likely why someone (whoever it was) leaked it.

The thing about that memo too is that it showed clearly that the companies view on community feedback was "ignore them", lets just watch the wallet and see what happens. In a way Hilmar is kind of an evil genius, because he knows that this communities tolerance for bullshit like this is quite high. We love this game and while many of the things CCP has done have outraged the community, looking at the data about subscribers and amount of people logged in, despite all the events that have happen since this letter they really haven't budget. Sure they haven't gone up either, but it just goes to show that even a blatent "**** you" letter like this is not enough to get us to quit Eve outright.

Still i think their is a limit, and Mittani and the rest of the CSM are pushing negative media attention as hard as they can to bring the game to that boiling point in hopes that eventually even Hilmar will have to look at the situation and realize that we aren't just saying we are leaving, but actually are.

There is very little data about physical subscriptions, but CCP has never hidden these numbers before, they have always been publicly available and they will only be able to hide it until the end of the year when they will be forced to release public financials as is required in Iceland. Eventually we will find out the results of this debaticle and I suspect the subscription numbers will have shown to drop significantly which is why I still hold out hope that something positive will come out of all this.
Mara Rinn
Cosmic Goo Convertor
#79 - 2011-09-09 07:31:02 UTC
Saerathus wrote:
"CCP needs us to finance their other games/CCP is killing their golden goose" - No, they don't. Don't deceive yourselves, the people that believe this. DUST and WoD have already had the bulk of their development costs paid for, they don't NEED Eve Online to remain running at its current level to keep from going out of business, and I would bet that they don't NEED Eve Online revenues at all to keep from going out of business.


Are you able to support that claim with evidence of some kind? CCP's financial statements were listed as are most Icelanding companies, if I recall correctly. You might find that the development of WoD and DUST has been bought with loans. Since neither WoD nor DUST is generating income at this point in time, the only source of funds to repay those loans is EVE Online for the present term.

Saerathus wrote:
Does anyone here that knows how corporations work really think that CCP would embark on -two- CapEx projects simultaneously without being able to afford it?


This is Iceland you're talking about. Fishermen head off into the North Atlantic without lifejackets, and then there's the whole "Icelandic male psyche" issue that you don't appear to be aware of. They are arrogant risk-takers, and taking risks against advice from their peers is part of that arrogance. Besides, at the time the risks were being taken, Iceland was on top of the world, financially speaking. Then that whole sub-prime mortgage thing happened in the USA, which brought down Icelandic banks along with everyone else's.

Saerathus wrote:
That being said, anyone that knows how corporations work also knows that CCP wouldn't just turn off Eve-O if it were making them money.


SOE shut down SWG, even though they had planned to keep it running until next year, and it was still making them money.

Saerathus wrote:
Then Mittani and Zulu had their little video chat thing saying again that everything was cool, and then 3 months later you guys are back saying CCP is screwing us, making increasingly "threatening" blog posts, and not doing very much.


For someone who claims to have studied the relevant blogs, you're pretty behind the times. The breaking news of the last few months: CCP sent their draft of the Emergency Summit minutes to the CSM, and the CSM promptly replied, "WTF?"

Saerathus wrote:
Not to mention, The Mittani's grandstanding makes it look like he's literally just doing all of this for attention.


Say it's not so! The Mittani? An attention-seeking egoist? What's the world coming to?

Sorry to say, but it is widely recognised by everyone who has had any kind of dealings with The Mittani that he is an arrogant prick with an ego the size of a small nation. But apparently he's good at what he does, so we let it slide because it wouldn't be as fun to mock him and his minions if he pulled his head in. EVE Online, the sandbox game, where the players create the content. Here's The Mittani providing the obvious "evil overlord" target for all the non-Goons to focus their rage upon! It doesn't get better than this. Well, apart from the faceless Russian bot-lords, or the Siigari Kitawa fail-fits, or the Star Fraction RPers, or … hang it. The Mittani provides content. Which is a lot more than most of the players of this game can say.

You appear to be blissfully unaware of how bankrupt the Icelandic banks are. The Icelandic banks are bankrupt, in case you missed the world news for the last couple of years. You can deposit Euros, but only withdraw Icelandic Kronor, ask any Icelander. The banks are desperately trying to pay several billions of Euros of foreign debt: Landsbanki in particular lost a lot of liquid capital when the bank's directors embezzled the funds and disappeared overseas. Which comes back to Icelandic males and their arrogant risk taking attitude.

So you don't know CCP's financial situation. You don't know about Iceland's financial situation. You don't know who CCP's primary shareholders/investors are. You don't know who The Mittani is. Yet you have opinions about all of these things, claiming that the rest of us who actually play the game and know CCP and know Iceland and know The Mittani, even if only by reputation, don't have a clue?

Why did you bother posting?
Eladaris
Indefinite.
#80 - 2011-09-09 07:37:48 UTC  |  Edited by: Eladaris
Saerathus wrote:
Hrald wrote:
First using someone abiding by an NDA as criticism of the CSM.


If you could clarify here:

You defend the CSM using the NDA as something to hide behind when they don't want to talk about something? The CSM delegate was the one that brought it up in the first place.

...

Instead we get this sort of nebulous denial that basically amounts to responding with "words." The CSM delegate in this case should have either responded to the things they knew and could respond to, which were correct and not, and then not commented on the NDA aspects at all. Either that, or nothing at all.

I don't have a problem with people respecting an NDA. However, I have a huge problem with people saying "some things you say are wrong, but I can't tell you what they are or why." And I think that is more or less what everyone else was pointing out as well.


Saerathus wrote:
TL;DR:

I'm not anyone special.
1 CCP doesn't need your money to survive, but would like it.
2 CCP isn't going to play stupid media games with amateur politicians.
3 CSM made a dog's breakfast of handling the outrage over the last 3 months.
5 CCP doesn't care about what future players of its other games are gonna think.
7 CSM needs to grow some balls if it wants to actually advocate for its players



From what I know... And I'm not bound by an NDA, however I'm just going to touch on things likely covered under an NDA.

1) CCP desperately does need your money to survive... If they can push off / get new funding to handle that pesky little loan repayment in October they may not need it as much, until it comes due again. I've seen how the company ownership is divied... it isn't highly favorable to CCP.

2) CCP will play media games... They did after the last emergency summit. They didn't change their direction, but you can't call that video blog at the end anything other than a media game.

3) CSM was absolutely not transparent about what they were doing. They failed to learn lessons from the last CSM... they're paying for it now IMO. I think they've learned from their mistakes and they're talking a lot more now. This thread alone proves that. mittens is still shitposting it up, but there are some good posts in there also.

5) As long as they have enough cash flow to keep WoD in development, and Dust isn't stillborn due to problems with Eve, absolutely. Nothing that's happened thus far imperils CCP's future... but it likely makes it a little less rosy. Note this doesn't contradict what I said before about CCP needing the money from Eve Online subs. Even if bitter Eve player's pollute the DUST 514 and WoD threads that won't mean much to CCP when the release dates roll around. Eve player's aren't anywhere nearly as powerful as they seem to think they are.

7) This CSM saw directly the after effects of the prior CSM's "Terrorist activities"... I personally believe they know from example how effective, or not effective, such tactics would be with CCP. Armchair quarterbacking without that knowledge is more than a trifle daft. I enjoy shitposting it up as much as the next guy about how the CSM needs to man up and quit / rage / leak NDA stuff, but at least I try to look like I'm shitposting when I do it.

Other people have pointed out how horribly horribly wrong you are about the folks / situation in Iceland... I won't touch on any of that. But suffice to say, things in Iceland are nothing like things in other places of the world. That's a big part of why this problem is happening.

//EDIT: Having said all that, other than the RPS news blurb and the MMO news interview with mittens earlier today (yesterday now?) most of the media attention has been highly counterproductive for the 'cause.