EVE Fiction

In strategic studies, security is more important to a state's decision-making than any other factor. This includes interactions and alliances. Domestic factors such as culture or language are not a factor. They are merely something to reinforce an alliance should the primary motivation (security) be satisfied. What is key is the state's standing internationally; nothing differentiates them from one another other than their measure of power. They are homogeneous in this perspective.

For example, the UK-US special relationship is one thing when you consider all the cultural and historical factors in the equation. But then the US is allied with Saudi Arabia, despite the complete opposition in culture and ideology. Moreover, the West is more than happy to see Syria devolve into a backwards Islamist regime so long as it is weak regionally; again, international standing is more important than internal culture or ideology.

Applied to EVE, it is very simple. Ranked from first to last, the strongest states in New Eden when considering all materialistic factors is as follows...

1) Amarr Empire
2) Gallente Federation
3) Caldari State
4) Minmatar Republic

- The greatest security threat to the Amarr Empire is the Gallente Federation (Lore-backing: Both expansionist empires, Amarr ended expansion after the Jove war and consideration of the Gallente strength)

- The greatest security threat to the Gallente Federation is the Amarr Empire (Lore-backing: Both expansionist empires, Gallente seeked to end the war with the Caldari from considering the Amarr's strength)

- The greatest security threat to the Caldari State is the Gallente Federation (Lore-backing: Historical factors, large instances of constructivism amongst the Caldari that creates the perception of a Gallente threat)

- The greatest security threat to the Minmatar Republic is the Amarr Empire (Lore-backing: Numerous historical factors)

Therefore, the Minmatar Republic are allied with the Gallente Federation because of a mutual security threat, and the Caldari State are allied with the Amarr Empire because of a mutual security threat. Removing CONCORD from this theoritical, the Minmatar Republic does not stand a chance on its own versus the Amarr Empire; with the Gallente Federation by its side (which is similar in strength to the Amarr Empire), there is a chance of a pyrrhic victory at best.

Keep in mind, the theory of Constructivism can play a part, particularly in the Caldari instance. This is involves the perception of a threat regardless of its materialistic cogency. For example, the Caldari's perception can change regarding the Gallente (as the animosity is not always reciprocated). In which case, the Amarr Empire becomes the greatest security threat. The Minmatar's historical perceptions will not change the fact that the Amarr Empire remains the greatest security threat.

The materialistic concerns needs to change for the alliance dynamic to believably switch. Regardless of domestic sways between militarism and pacifism, the Amarr Empire will remain expansionist. It is built on expansion. The same applies to the Gallente Federation. However, although it is expansionist, it is the least militaristic of the four empires. That puts the Amarr Empire as the most threatening power in New Eden. That threat is more important than any other factor in international relations.

I did say "believably switch", however. IMO, outright ending the Minnie/Gal alliance in the current long-term climate is strategic non-sense. There are not enough structural factors. The fact that the Federation is a third Minmatar and that a fifth of all Minmatar are in the Federation creates a materialistic concern and a mutual interest. The Federation is populist and therefore cannot do anything to the Republic without alienating a third of its population. A similar idea applies to the Republic doing anything antagonistic to the Federation.

The Caldari State as a whole is probably capable of opposing both the Amarr and the Gallente (not both at the same time, at least not without help). However, the main problem is that the megacorporations keep the State divided quite heavily and unable to commit all of it's resources towards one cause.

Of course, a recent story update reveals that Tibus Heth is starting to talk about a unifying Caldari State. If that story arc continues with him succeeding a Caldari-Minmatar alliance could be feasible.

As for the Minmatar side, there would have to be some rapid and dramatic changes in the realm of things. The Gallente-Minmatar tensions caused by recent shooting might lead somewhere, but a Minmatar alliance with the Caldari would have to be formed on the "enemy of my enemy is my friend" idea.

Very good and well thought out post though.

So in your view things aren't allowed to evolve and change...that the Caldari are locked into being friendly with the amarr? I find this logic ridiculous.

Personally Im excited for the idea of a Cal/min alliance and I want to be part of it. If I can be.

One war zone would be nice too

The Caldari allied with the Amarr for a number of reasons -- remember that the Gallente-Minmatar alliance was first (the Gallente helped the Minmatar win their independence) and that both the Federation and Republic vastly outnumber the population (and size) of the State. The Caldari are also extremely xenophobic -- not in a racist sense necessarily, but in that they literally perceive the rest of the cluster, especially the Gallente, as a threat. With the Gallente pulling the Minmatar into their sphere of influence, the Caldari formed their alliance with the Amarr as a reaction to the the threat they perceived from the Federation-Republic axis.

The Caldari also have a bit of arrogance towards the Minmatar as well -- remember that the Caldari won their independence without any outside help, while the Minmatar, in Caldari eyes, sold their soul to the Gallente in order to be free of the Amarr, and since they have won their independence they have not really stood too much on their own (aside from the Elder Invasion, which the Caldari likely see as extremely foolhardy and a waste of resources).

As far as Caldari relations with the Amarr, their leadership is likely under no delusion that the Amarr have special loyalty to the Caldari -- the Caldari know, however, that the Amarr need the Caldari as a bulwark against the Gallente and Minmatar as much as the Caldari need them, so they are unlikely to get stabbed in the back by the Amarr -- and if the Amarr do come for them, at this point, the Caldari have enough strength to make it a very costly invasion for the Amarr, which would leave them even more vulnerable to the Gallente and Minmatar. The Caldari alliance is purely defensive, and they don't really seek to destroy the Gallente or Minmatar strategically, however, because that would mean the Amarr would lose the pressure to restrain themselves that they have now. The reason that the economic troubles in the State and the CAESA likely worry many Caldari leaders right now is that it weakens the State's bargaining position with the Amarr -- they want to again get back on top economically to keep the Amarr, who are large but, at least previously, not as wealthy as the Caldari (per capita), dependent on them as a trade partner. This is also the reason for their diplomatic overtures to the Khanid and Ishukone's outreach to the Intaki.

The Minmatar also aren't as valuable to the Caldari as trade partners compared to the Amarr, because they are the poorest of the four empires, which means the Caldari have the least to gain from forging trade alliances with them. That isn't to say that that trade isn't there, but the Caldari are more interested in trading with the Federation, even, than they are with the Republic, purely from an economic self-interest point of view.

Reading that post now seems pretty funny. The shooting nearly caused all-out war in the end. It looks like the Gallente Minmatar alliance is still in play but it could of dissolved.

Anyway, that plot line is starting to come to a close, but here is the original news story of it.

http://community.eveonline.com/news/news-channels/world-news/terrorist-attack-gallente-cultural-center/

If we keep agitating, though, I'll bet we could push through a severing of the Gallente-Minmatar alliance.

Also being loyal (to some extent) to the State and having some knowledge on Amarr I can see the Caldari-Amarr alliance is beneficial to both parties.
First of all, i just can't even imagine Amarr and Minmatar agreeing to ceasing hostilities without amarr giving up on all the Minmatar slaves still remaining within the empire, and i certainly doubt Amarr as a whole would ever agree to that. Secondly, Amarr have had some past disagreements with the Gallente, some of those have resulted in border skirmishes and even capital/supercapital deployments, though the only one of those i can currently remember was made by a rogue element from within the Empire and not by an Imperial order. Thus, out of the three other factions, Caldari seem to be the best option for an alliance from Amarrian standpoint, in my opinion. And there are more unifying points between Caldari and the Amarr.
One more thing, the State Navy has the technology, but lacks in numbers, whereas Imperial Navy is the exact opposite - it has the numbers, but is somewhat held back on the technology in overall. I'd say it's a match made in heaven, at least as I see it.

just my 0.10 ISK

I'm pretty sure dreadnoughts shooting at each other could start a war. If the Gallente really wanted to escalate things, they could.

A Minmatar-Caldari alliance assumes certain risks, and certain benefits.

The main risk is that such a move would alienate their current allies, the Amarr, upsetting the current balance of power, potentially forcing the Amarr to take some kind of decisive action.. Shooting wars aren't profitable unless you're not doing any shooting, just providing weapons and munitions (and maybe mercenaries). Even then, the loss of business for other consumer goods is unprofitable; war benefits the munitions industry at the expense of everybody else... and even there, it's an unsustainable benefit.

That said, in the absence of a potential Amarr threat, allying with the Minmatar makes great sense with regard to relations with the Gallente. As Sun Tsu put it, the second highest form of warfare is to attack the enemy's alliances, and having an alliance with the Minmatar would constrain Gallente aggression more than the status quo does, while having little effect on Caldari options relative to the status quo.