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Pre-Odyssey investment speculations on R64 and why you might lose billions

First post
Author
Vordek Rei
Masters of Mass
#1 - 2013-05-30 21:44:24 UTC
With the launch of Odyssey CCP will change the R64 moon distribution as well as increase the total amount of R64 moons by 227.

Quote:
As these changes will bring the total usage of each R64 mineral into much closer balance, we will be seeding R64s into 227 existing moons in lowsec and 0.0, to bring the number of minable moons for each R64 into closer alignment.


Since the news of changes to the T2 material production chain, everyone has been out to buy the 4 - R64 materials, Pro, Dys, Deo, Thu. Which makes very little sense since the market is going to see an huge influx of said materials. If anything the prices on R64 should go down.

In previous expansions such investments would be meaningful, simply because of how demand used to be, post expansion launch.

But this time around it looks like a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money because they did not do their homework.

If you calculate the value of The New Racial Composites and compare the value of these versus the value loss on changes to the Microprocessors, Capacitor units and Reactor units it pretty much evens out. So demand on the R64 should not increase.

Quote:
To reach these goals we are implementing a change to several aspects of the tech two production chain. We are adding two new intermediate materials (with associated reactions and alchemy reactions), four new composites, and adjusting the composition of the Microprocessors, Capacitor Units, and Reactors.


Link to DevBlog with numbers

New Intermediate Materials
ThuliHaf : 100 Thulium + 100 Hafnium = 200 ThuliHaf
ProMerc : 100 Promethium + 100 Mercury = 200 ProMerc

New Composites
  • Gallentium : 100 ThulHaf + 100 Crystallite Alloy = 300 Gallentium
  • Matarium : 100 Neo Mercurite + 100 Fernite Alloy = 300 Matarium
  • Amarrium : 100 ProMerc + 100 Rolled Tungsten Alloy = 300 Amarrium
  • Caldarium : 100 Ferrofluid + 100 Titanium Chromide = 300 Caldarium

  • Changed blueprints

    All Non Capital Microprocessors:
    15(+3) Racial Carbides, 5(+4) Phenolic Composites, 2(-3) Nanotransitors, 2(+2) New Racial Composites

    All Non Capital Capacitor Units:
    24 Racial Carbides, 10(-5) Fullerides, 1 Nanotransistor, 2(+2) New Racial Composites

    All Non Capital Reactor Units:
    8 Racial Carbides, 0(-1) Ferrogel, 2(+1) Fermionic Condensates

    All Capital Microprocessors:
    1500(+300) Racial Carbides, 50(+40) Phenolic Composites, 20(-30) Nanotransitors, 20(+20) New Racial Composites

    All Capital Capacitor Units:
    2000 Racial Carbides, 1000 Fullerides, 10 Nanotransistors, 20(+20) New Racial Composites

    All Capital Reactor Units:
    800 Racial Carbides, 0(-10) Ferrogel, 20(+10) Fermionic Condensates
    _____________________________________________________
    Consequences

    In short - I don't think the current R64 material reflect the future in any way, in fact expect the value to drop hard and fast (4-5 Weeks)

    With the increased R64 material influx on the market, the demand for e.g. Merc will explode since everyone with new R64 on their hands will want to manufacture the new Racial Composites.

    If you disagree with my assertion please post your numbers / math to prove your point, just saying that you don't believe it to be so will not be taken serious. Trying to do Internet Spaceship Market Science here Blink

    Hope you enjoyed this insight, and happy last moment investments.
    EvilweaselSA
    GoonCorp
    Goonswarm Federation
    #2 - 2013-05-30 23:03:33 UTC
    it will take many months before all the new r64s are found

    and it's bottlenecked with them
    Nitrogen Isotopes
    Deep Core Mining Inc.
    Caldari State
    #3 - 2013-05-30 23:32:43 UTC  |  Edited by: Nitrogen Isotopes
    Vordek Rei wrote:
    With the increased R64 material influx on the market, the demand for e.g. Merc will explode since everyone with new R64 on their hands will want to manufacture the new Racial Composites.


    You seem to think the increase in supply of r64s will be greater than the increase in demand required to supply those very same racial composites. You might want to post some math / numbers concerning current and projected use so you can be taken seriously.
    Vordek Rei
    Masters of Mass
    #4 - 2013-05-31 00:08:03 UTC  |  Edited by: Vordek Rei
    Quote:
    You seem to think the increase in supply of r64s will be greater than the increase in demand required to supply those very same racial composites

    Edit: Look up or google PED (Price elasticity of demand) if you want the math.

    Call me dumb - It's a little hard for me to understand your question?

    But here is what I think, in case you need clarification, on exactly what it is, I think.

    Increase in R64 supply will also increase the demand for materials used in the production of intermediate materials..

    The math is complex and is, in itself, key to good projections and investments.

    I did not post this so that everyone can lick the icing of my profit cake, without breaking a little sweat over the math.
    Vordek Rei
    Masters of Mass
    #5 - 2013-05-31 00:20:19 UTC
    EvilweaselSA wrote:
    it will take many months before all the new r64s are found

    and it's bottlenecked with them


    I remember how much time it took last time, about 2 weeks at max.
    It might take many months before you know where they are, but pretty sure people are going to go probe crazy.
    Hit gold while the price is high, and bomb the R64 market to the stone age in a rush for quick profit.
    EvilweaselSA
    GoonCorp
    Goonswarm Federation
    #6 - 2013-05-31 00:36:24 UTC
    Vordek Rei wrote:
    Quote:
    You seem to think the increase in supply of r64s will be greater than the increase in demand required to supply those very same racial composites

    Edit: Look up or google PED (Price elasticity of demand) if you want the math.

    Call me dumb - It's a little hard for me to understand your question?

    google other irrelevant things that have nothing to do with the price of a bottlenecked material
    EvilweaselSA
    GoonCorp
    Goonswarm Federation
    #7 - 2013-05-31 00:37:00 UTC
    Vordek Rei wrote:
    EvilweaselSA wrote:
    it will take many months before all the new r64s are found

    and it's bottlenecked with them


    I remember how much time it took last time, about 2 weeks at max.
    It might take many months before you know where they are, but pretty sure people are going to go probe crazy.
    Hit gold while the price is high, and bomb the R64 market to the stone age in a rush for quick profit.

    it has never happened before so i would go to the doctor and get that ol' memory checked gramps
    Nitrogen Isotopes
    Deep Core Mining Inc.
    Caldari State
    #8 - 2013-05-31 00:39:22 UTC
    Vordek Rei wrote:
    It's a little hard for me to understand your question?


    I wasn't asking a question.

    I think it's amusing that you want others to post their numbers but you're unwilling to do so yourself.

    I'm also fascinated by the method people use to come to starkly different conclusions than my own after playing around with a bit of market data.

    However, if you're just fishing then it is considerably less interesting.
    mynnna
    Caldari Provisions
    Caldari State
    #9 - 2013-05-31 00:53:43 UTC  |  Edited by: mynnna
    Vordek Rei wrote:

    If you disagree with my assertion please post your numbers / math to prove your point, just saying that you don't believe it to be so will not be taken serious. Trying to do Internet Spaceship Market Science here Blink


    Challenge accepted.

    Vordek Rei wrote:
    If you calculate the value of The New Racial Composites and compare the value of these versus the value loss on changes to the Microprocessors, Capacitor units and Reactor units it pretty much evens out. So demand on the R64 should not increase.


    The first flaw here is that you're assuming that the price of the R64s will stay the same.

    The second flaw is that you're also comparing "isk value" to "units consumed". So let's focus on the isk cost first. We get -3 Nanotransistors (-13.5k), but +3 carbides (+110ish), four Phenolic Composites (+4x1250) and two racial composites, which I estimate would be selling for about 10k with current R64 prices (except for the Minmatar one, which would be closer to 15k). So, that's a gain of +25k, which more than balances the -13.5k from the Nanos. Or, we can assume that you're right, and everything crashes. In that scenario, Nanos cost about 3500-3700, Carbides cost 120 minimum (rising fuel prices, you see), Phenolics cost about 1000/unit, and (by using the pre-speculation prices of 2k for Thulium, 5k for Prom, 10k for Dyspro and 50k for Neo) the racial composites cost anywhere from 7 to 13k each depending on race. The actual price delta varies by race, of course, but is a net increase in all cases.

    The picture is similarly unfavorable for capacitor units (where two racial composites cost far more than the five Fullerides being replaced regardless of scenario) and Reactor Units (one unit of Fermionic Condensates will always cost a lot more than one unit of Ferrogel).

    The third flaw comes into play once we look at what is actually being replaced. The demand is does not "pretty much even out" as you claim, it's actually quite a significant increase.

    Microprocessors are losing three units of nanotransistors, which amounts to 0.1 units of Neodymium per Microprocessor. However, they're gaining two units of their respective racial composite, which translates into a third of a unit of R64 per Microprocessor. Net gain here is .233(...) units of R64 per Microprocessor, albeit spread a bit unevenly. Microprocessors also pick up more Phenolic Composites and the racial Carbide, but those don't use R64s, so we'll ignore them.

    Capacitor Units are losing 5 units of Fullerides, and gaining two units of racial composites. Fullerides don't use R64s at all, they derived their value from Technetium, which is why they have been and will continue to crash very badly. So, these are just a straight increase in consumption of R64s, a third of a unit apiece.

    And finally, Reactor Units. We're losing a unit of Ferrogel, which translates to .125 units of Dysprosium and .25 units of Promethium per unit of Ferrogel, but gaining a unit of Fermionic Condensates, which is +.25 units of every R64. So, net gain for everything but Promethium, which is net zero.

    Now for the coup de grace.

    I estimate (by essentially looking at average sales of T2 in Jita over the course of a month) that around 85 million units of Microprocessors are consumed per month. Thus, we lose 8.5 million units of Neodymium consumption, but gain about 28.33 million units of R64 consumption, split (rather unevenly, I might add) across the four of them. I'll single out Neodymium specifically and note that it's actually a small net loss here; the increase from the Matar racial composites is outweighed by the decrease from the loss of the Nanotransistors, by about two million units.

    Capacitor Units see around 25.5 million units consumed a month. This is just a straight increase, about 8.3 million units of R64s worth.

    And finally, reactor units. They're a low usage item, only perhaps 2.3 million per month. We lose .375 units in each, but gain a full unit with the switch to Fermionics, for a net gain of .625 per month. In the end, it comes to an additional ~1.5m units per month.

    OH YEAH, and there's also 352k capital micros (net gain of +2.33 R64s each), 352k Cap units (net gain of +3.33 R64s each) and +259k Reactor Units (net gain of +6.25 R64s each), so another 3.6 million units there.

    So, our net gain in R64 consumption is about 33.241 million units per month. A moon only produces 72000 units per month, on the other hand, which comes out to a total of 16.344 million units. Given that my estimate of increased consumption is a little over twice as large as the amount of moon goo the new moons will add, I think it's safe to say that you're wrong.

    Now if you'll excuse me, I have 800 billion isk (current market value of course) worth of R64s that I bought prior to Odyssey to go roll around in.

    Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal

    Felicity Love
    Doomheim
    #10 - 2013-05-31 01:08:46 UTC
    ... sits on the boatdock sipping Sangria and looks out at the crystalline skies... Blink

    "EVE is dying." -- The Four Forum Trolls of the Apocalypse.   ( Pick four, any four. They all smell.  )

    Derath Ellecon
    Washburne Holdings
    #11 - 2013-05-31 01:09:45 UTC
    mynna wrote:
    so many words


    Im reminded once again why I spend my time in New Eden just flying around shooting stuff...
    Vordek Rei
    Masters of Mass
    #12 - 2013-05-31 02:26:25 UTC  |  Edited by: Vordek Rei
    mynnna wrote:

    The first flaw here is that you're assuming that the price of the R64s will stay the same.


    Quote:

    In short - I don't think the current R64 material reflect the future in any way, in fact expect the value to drop hard and fast (4-5 Weeks)


    Clearly you did not read what I wrote.

    I wish you the best of luck on the market.
    I'm going to sign out of this debate.
    But thanks for your write up.
    I will post my defeat in this very post in 2-3 weeks time, then we will take it from there.
    mynnna
    Caldari Provisions
    Caldari State
    #13 - 2013-05-31 02:47:36 UTC
    Nah, read what you wrote, just phrased things poorly. I really should have said "The first flaw is you're assuming they won't go up further." Start from a position of fact, basically, just like you did. I just defended my claim. Blink

    Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal

    Rama Sirius
    Damorg Freedom Corp
    Shattered Freeholds
    #14 - 2013-05-31 14:15:06 UTC
    This time last year neodymium was at 18k a unit
    Aryth
    GoonWaffe
    Goonswarm Federation
    #15 - 2013-05-31 14:45:23 UTC
    Apes pawing at the obelisk.

    Leader of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal.

    Creator of Burn Jita

    Vile Rat: You're the greatest sociopath that has ever played eve.

    Varius Xeral
    Doomheim
    #16 - 2013-05-31 15:12:31 UTC
    What a thoroughly unconvincing argument.

    Official Representative of The Nullsec Zealot Cabal

    Steve Ronuken
    Fuzzwork Enterprises
    Vote Steve Ronuken for CSM
    #17 - 2013-05-31 15:21:55 UTC
    Aryth wrote:
    Apes pawing at the obelisk.



    Clearly they should be pawing at the Fenrir or Providence. Rather than the slow and Ugly Obelisk.

    Though I'm sure they'll just bang on it with thigh bones.

    Woo! CSM XI!

    Fuzzwork Enterprises

    Twitter: @fuzzysteve on Twitter

    Rhivre
    TarNec
    Invisible Exchequer
    #18 - 2013-05-31 16:18:10 UTC
    Steve Ronuken wrote:
    Aryth wrote:
    Apes pawing at the obelisk.



    Clearly they should be pawing at the Fenrir or Providence. Rather than the slow and Ugly Obelisk.

    Though I'm sure they'll just bang on it with thigh bones.



    Leave the providence alone!

    The Fenrir or Charon are much better.

    If you bang on a Charon with thigh bones, you can get quite a good tune out of it
    Skydell
    Bad Girl Posse
    Somethin Awfull Forums
    #19 - 2013-06-01 04:48:53 UTC
    Nitrogen Isotopes wrote:
    Vordek Rei wrote:
    With the increased R64 material influx on the market, the demand for e.g. Merc will explode since everyone with new R64 on their hands will want to manufacture the new Racial Composites.


    You seem to think the increase in supply of r64s will be greater than the increase in demand required to supply those very same racial composites. You might want to post some math / numbers concerning current and projected use so you can be taken seriously.


    I don't think demand for anything is in line with the games power to produce. It was more about manipulation of the markets.

    Considering how quick the Techetium Cartel folded, I don't see there being enough solidarity to manipulate the new T2 markets.
    flakeys
    Doomheim
    #20 - 2013-06-01 19:14:19 UTC
    Vordek Rei wrote:
    mynnna wrote:

    The first flaw here is that you're assuming that the price of the R64s will stay the same.


    Quote:

    In short - I don't think the current R64 material reflect the future in any way, in fact expect the value to drop hard and fast (4-5 Weeks)


    Clearly you did not read what I wrote.

    I wish you the best of luck on the market.
    I'm going to sign out of this debate.
    But thanks for your write up.
    I will post my defeat in this very post in 2-3 weeks time, then we will take it from there.



    You want someone to discuss this indepth ....then cores comes along and does just that and then you go ''meh i don't want to talk indepth about this'' ........... Roll

    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid.

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