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Ice- ageddon "The oil of Eve" War Creator

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Sek Des
Somewhere in Time
#1 - 2013-05-30 04:10:36 UTC  |  Edited by: Sek Des
@ 11 minutes CCP stream from today

Just wanted to get a few thoughts the future of Ice. I am sure there are large stock piles . I brought it up in TS and I was surprised by the reaction. Some said it will drop like a rock others said it will skyrocket. I think it will go up then drop like most things post expansions. I hope to find the small window where it hits its peak. Any thoughts ?
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#2 - 2013-05-30 08:29:43 UTC
Sek Des wrote:
@ 11 minutes CCP stream from today

Just wanted to get a few thoughts the future of Ice. I am sure there are large stock piles . I brought it up in TS and I was surprised by the reaction. Some said it will drop like a rock others said it will skyrocket. I think it will go up then drop like most things post expansions. I hope to find the small window where it hits its peak. Any thoughts ?


It depends on your time frame.

I have already cashed in a lot of money off ices but I still hold a stash of it.

The fights over the revamped moons will require ices mining, the reduced hi sec supply will require more expensive 0.0 ices mining, 0.0 best belts are relatively rare.
Rhivre
TarNec
Invisible Exchequer
#3 - 2013-05-30 10:16:58 UTC
I think a lot of people are holding a lot of ice Shocked

As to where the price will go?

I think eventually it will settle at a higher point than now, but, it will be up and down all over the place for a while until it settles, as initially "OMG Ice Mining" will drop the price, then it will be better to mine something else, so the price will rise, so then people swap back...rinse and repeat.

At some point there will be a happy medium where enough ice is supplied to keep people happy, and the price is right for the miners.

Mynna wrote a post here Mynna Writes About Ice and Stuff

And I wrote a less smart one here: OMG ICE!

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#4 - 2013-05-30 10:48:10 UTC
Rhivre wrote:
I think a lot of people are holding a lot of ice Shocked

As to where the price will go?

I think eventually it will settle at a higher point than now, but, it will be up and down all over the place for a while until it settles, as initially "OMG Ice Mining" will drop the price, then it will be better to mine something else, so the price will rise, so then people swap back...rinse and repeat.

At some point there will be a happy medium where enough ice is supplied to keep people happy, and the price is right for the miners.

Mynna wrote a post here Mynna Writes About Ice and Stuff

And I wrote a less smart one here: OMG ICE!



You know very well how I am unloading ice since weeks Blink and I still have immense loads. I don't care if it'll dip for some months or 1 year, in the worst case I can use it to fuel my towers but you know there won't be a worst case.
Rhivre
TarNec
Invisible Exchequer
#5 - 2013-05-30 10:49:44 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:


You know very well how I am unloading ice since weeks Blink and I still have immense loads. I don't care if it'll dip for some months or 1 year, in the worst case I can use it to fuel my towers but you know there won't be a worst case.


I dont think it will dip for long...people bore of things they dont like doing :p

Danni stark
#6 - 2013-05-30 12:44:31 UTC
Rhivre wrote:
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:


You know very well how I am unloading ice since weeks Blink and I still have immense loads. I don't care if it'll dip for some months or 1 year, in the worst case I can use it to fuel my towers but you know there won't be a worst case.


I dont think it will dip for long...people bore of things they dont like doing :p



ice belts won't be up long enough for people to get bored.
Rhivre
TarNec
Invisible Exchequer
#7 - 2013-05-30 12:45:41 UTC
Danni stark wrote:


ice belts won't be up long enough for people to get bored.



*some* ice belts wont be

And in those systems, people will get bored of "OMG I only got 5 minutes on the ice"
El 1974
Green Visstick High
#8 - 2013-05-30 12:59:32 UTC  |  Edited by: El 1974
I'm not going to comment on prices as I'm trying to make some isk trading it as well.

As things are anounced right now ice in nullsec will not be scarce enough to spark many conflicts. You cannot determine who gets the benefits of a single ice anomaly in a large fight as you can with tech moons. You need to mine the anomaly and to do so effectively you'll also want to control the area around that system to make it harder to disrupt mining. Having three systems with a single anomaly will also be harder to dirupt than a single system containing three anomalies. It's all about controlling as much space as you can and blue-ing up with the neighbours. There's nothing new about that.

What I fear however is that CCP in one of their next iterations or expansions will decide to make some changes. There will no longer be infinate belts to stock up on ice when that happens.
Rhivre
TarNec
Invisible Exchequer
#9 - 2013-05-30 13:12:25 UTC
I dont think ice will be sparking conflicts in null. The moons might be, although, it only takes 1 afk cloaker to put miners off mining, and with the increased need for ice from null to ensure current supply levels, that could be more annoying than it is currently.
Bugsy VanHalen
Society of lost Souls
#10 - 2013-05-30 13:45:36 UTC
Rhivre wrote:
Danni stark wrote:


ice belts won't be up long enough for people to get bored.



*some* ice belts wont be

And in those systems, people will get bored of "OMG I only got 5 minutes on the ice"


Fozzie has said they will be watching closely. If ICE belts are consumed within 5 minutes of spawning they will make some adjustments. Personally I do not see that happening beyond the first few weeks.
Rhivre
TarNec
Invisible Exchequer
#11 - 2013-05-30 13:48:44 UTC
Bugsy VanHalen wrote:
Rhivre wrote:
Danni stark wrote:


ice belts won't be up long enough for people to get bored.



*some* ice belts wont be

And in those systems, people will get bored of "OMG I only got 5 minutes on the ice"


Fozzie has said they will be watching closely. If ICE belts are consumed within 5 minutes of spawning they will make some adjustments. Personally I do not see that happening beyond the first few weeks.



Oh, I dont think they will be popping in 5 minutes, I just dont think people will like not having ice available all the time.

I think Osmon etc will have some adjustments due to the sheer volume of miners there, and I know they are respawning every 4 hours, but, it could be frustrating to log in just before it depletes.

Of course, my advice in that situation would be "go to a quieter system", but, miners, like missioners are creatures of habit ^^
Daniel Plain
Doomheim
#12 - 2013-05-30 14:18:02 UTC
Bugsy VanHalen wrote:
Rhivre wrote:
Danni stark wrote:


ice belts won't be up long enough for people to get bored.



*some* ice belts wont be

And in those systems, people will get bored of "OMG I only got 5 minutes on the ice"


Fozzie has said they will be watching closely. If ICE belts are consumed within 5 minutes of spawning they will make some adjustments. Personally I do not see that happening beyond the first few weeks.

i can see the ice miners coalescing into a kind of community like the incursion runners. except they will have to divide the systems and time slots up instead of competing over anoms.

I should buy an Ishtar.

Adunh Slavy
#13 - 2013-05-30 14:38:12 UTC
Daniel Plain wrote:

i can see the ice miners coalescing into a kind of community like the incursion runners. except they will have to divide the systems and time slots up instead of competing over anoms.


For our next trick, we'll get 20 cats to stand still in a straight line.

Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.  - William Pitt

Daniel Plain
Doomheim
#14 - 2013-05-30 15:37:16 UTC
Adunh Slavy wrote:
Daniel Plain wrote:

i can see the ice miners coalescing into a kind of community like the incursion runners. except they will have to divide the systems and time slots up instead of competing over anoms.


For our next trick, we'll get 20 cats to stand still in a straight line.

if there is sufficient evolutionary pressure they just might learn to do so.

I should buy an Ishtar.

Pipernelli Spacemitt
Doomheim
#15 - 2013-05-30 15:48:37 UTC
Daniel Plain wrote:
Adunh Slavy wrote:
Daniel Plain wrote:

i can see the ice miners coalescing into a kind of community like the incursion runners. except they will have to divide the systems and time slots up instead of competing over anoms.


For our next trick, we'll get 20 cats to stand still in a straight line.

if there is sufficient evolutionary pressure they just might learn to do so.


I am prepared to wager the princely sum of 5000 interstellar kredits in opposition.
Daniel Plain
Doomheim
#16 - 2013-05-30 15:57:46 UTC
Pipernelli Spacemitt wrote:
Daniel Plain wrote:
Adunh Slavy wrote:
Daniel Plain wrote:

i can see the ice miners coalescing into a kind of community like the incursion runners. except they will have to divide the systems and time slots up instead of competing over anoms.


For our next trick, we'll get 20 cats to stand still in a straight line.

if there is sufficient evolutionary pressure they just might learn to do so.


I am prepared to wager the princely sum of 5000 interstellar kredits in opposition.

i am inclined to take the bet, albeit we should describe the win conditions precisely and raise the bet to at least 5kkk to make it interesting...

I should buy an Ishtar.

DarthNefarius
Minmatar Heavy Industries
#17 - 2013-05-31 02:25:43 UTC
Adunh Slavy wrote:
Daniel Plain wrote:

i can see the ice miners coalescing into a kind of community like the incursion runners. except they will have to divide the systems and time slots up instead of competing over anoms.


For our next trick, we'll get 20 cats to stand still in a straight line.


We had these incursion cats doing that for about a year then it all fell apart lolBig smile
An' then [email protected], he come scramblin outta the    Terminal room screaming "The system's crashing! The system's    crashing!" -Uncle RAMus, 'Tales for Cyberpsychotic Children'
Vincent Athena
Photosynth
#18 - 2013-05-31 03:45:32 UTC
What I foresee is "ice mining locust blobs". When a belt depletes what you do is move to another system. And then another. The way to keep ice mining is to do a little circuit, circling back to your first system in 4 hours, just in time to catch its new spawn. Now if you are an ice miner and log in, what do you do? The belt in your system will have been mined out by the locust blob, as have most all the other nearby systems. So whats your best way to find a fresh belt to mine?

Join the blob.

All you need to is go system to system until you find them and you know you found a ice belt. After that just follow them and you will have a steady ice supply. I think the ice mining locust blobs will be an emergent behavior. People will join the blob because it works, not because they all agreed to do it.

So as far as war is concerned, at least in high sec: The ice mining blob will be a mesh-mash of pilots from several corps, including NPC corps. What would you dec?

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Grandma Squirel
#19 - 2013-05-31 04:09:23 UTC
@Vincent Athena - Chasing the spawn is going to result in a lot of down time, and the guy who cheats and skips 5 anoms ahead and gets to mine in one place till you get to him wins.

@Daniel Plain - Incursions have a mechanic that force players to form at least fleets, if not full communities due to not wanting sucky players in your fleet. The incursion communities then provide the leadership to make a deal. Miners have no such communal pressure. The closest thing would be the orca booster alts, but there are just too many of them around and they are to easy to train. The incursion mechanics also provide many ways to grief people who don't play along, whereas the only thing you will be able to do to ice poachers is suicide gank em.

@Rhivre - Afk Cloakers only work when you are very risk averse. If Ice starts going up, you will reach points quickly where loosing a hulk or two to the the cyno bomber becomes a bargain to keep your 50+ man mining fleet humming. At even higher prices, the motivation to stage counter drops or otherwise retaliate against those who mess with your isk printing kicks in. Will it get that high? Hell if I know, but the higher it gets, the more likely emergent behavior is to emerge. How high does ice need to get before suicide ganking your competitors for the highsec ice becomes cost effective?
Dave Stark
#20 - 2013-05-31 09:45:29 UTC
Daniel Plain wrote:
Bugsy VanHalen wrote:
Rhivre wrote:
Danni stark wrote:


ice belts won't be up long enough for people to get bored.



*some* ice belts wont be

And in those systems, people will get bored of "OMG I only got 5 minutes on the ice"


Fozzie has said they will be watching closely. If ICE belts are consumed within 5 minutes of spawning they will make some adjustments. Personally I do not see that happening beyond the first few weeks.

i can see the ice miners coalescing into a kind of community like the incursion runners. except they will have to divide the systems and time slots up instead of competing over anoms.


why would they do that? "hey guys, i want to earn less isk, care to join me?"

it's one of the basic problems with mining, it promotes being antisocial and not interacting with other players.
you get more out of mining the less you have to do with other players, it's a pretty backwards profession for an MMO.
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