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A possible next video game crash
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Adela Talvanen
School of Applied Knowledge
Caldari State
#1 - 2013-05-28 16:18:21 UTC
Just watched this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&v=XZxXEidtxHk&NR=1

Quite interesting. Maybe history is going to repeat itself.
Reiisha
#2 - 2013-05-28 19:15:55 UTC
That's actually a pretty good summation of what's going on. It might be a bit overdramatic in places (ME3 wasn't bad perse, just rushed), it does hit the nail on the head.

The one thing i missed was the fact that large publishers are, in addition to rushing development, also putting very unrealistic sales targets on their games, either by simply being naive or using it as an administrative way to prevent higher payouts to development teams due to sales ("if you don't sell 100 million games you don't gte a $5 raise"). Square/Tomb Raider is a good example of this, where selling 3.5m copies of the game was still viewed as a failure, even though selling 500k+ of any game can usually be considered a pretty good result. This depends on the budget though, but still harkens back to setting unrealistic targets.

Take Minecraft - No targets whatsoever but still massive sales. Same with LoL, Angry Birds, Terraria or even stuff like Dear Esther or Amnesia and other breakout indie games.

If you do things right, people won't be sure you've done anything at all...
Kult Altol
The Safe Space
#3 - 2013-05-28 19:44:16 UTC
Great vid. I do hope there is a crash, force publishers to make good games.

[u]Can't wait untill when Eve online is Freemium.[/u] WiS only 10$, SP booster for one month 15$, DPS Boost 2$, EHP Boost 2$ Real money trading hub! Cosmeitic ship skins 15$ --> If you don't [u]pay **[/u]for a product, you ARE the [u]**product[/u].

Eli Green
The Arrow Project
#4 - 2013-05-28 20:01:21 UTC
The industry got too big too fast and it went to the head of all the big CEOs. They are now reaping their reward.

wumbo
Kult Altol
The Safe Space
#5 - 2013-05-28 20:04:35 UTC  |  Edited by: Kult Altol
Eli Green wrote:
The industry got too big too fast and it went to the head of all the big CEOs. They are now reaping their reward.



Consumers are also to blame demanding more and more content at a more rapid rate.

[u]Can't wait untill when Eve online is Freemium.[/u] WiS only 10$, SP booster for one month 15$, DPS Boost 2$, EHP Boost 2$ Real money trading hub! Cosmeitic ship skins 15$ --> If you don't [u]pay **[/u]for a product, you ARE the [u]**product[/u].

Unsuccessful At Everything
The Troll Bridge
#6 - 2013-05-28 20:38:34 UTC
Kult Altol wrote:
Eli Green wrote:
The industry got too big too fast and it went to the head of all the big CEOs. They are now reaping their reward.



Consumers are also to blame demanding more and more content at a more rapid rate.


WHAT??!?!! This surely isnt the case with Eve Online.....

Since the cessation of their usefulness is imminent, may I appropriate your belongings?
Eli Green
The Arrow Project
#7 - 2013-05-28 20:46:39 UTC
Kult Altol wrote:
Eli Green wrote:
The industry got too big too fast and it went to the head of all the big CEOs. They are now reaping their reward.



Consumers are also to blame demanding more and more content at a more rapid rate.


True true, unfortunately though a mindset change on the consumer's part will be a lot harder to accomplish.

wumbo
AbhChallenger
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
#8 - 2013-05-28 20:54:54 UTC
That was a pretty good look at history and where the industry stands today. However, I personally do not think the gaming crash on a scale of that of '83 is possible unless it is part of a complete depression across the entire economy worse than the great depression.

One reason for this is Kickstarter and other crowd funded games. The goal of these efforts is to develop until you have exhausted your funding instead of relying on maybe not sales. This will push up the quality of low to mid cost games.

The main reason in my opinion is Steambox. That is pushing developers to provide console like control options to their games and providing the standardization of consoles without the inflexibility. For instance recently Project Zomboid put out a video showing controls with a Xbox 360 controller then with a few buttons there was split screen multiplayer. And the goal seems to be later to have that and internet multiplayer.

Personally my opinion is that Xbox One and Wii U will fail and the only console gaming going 5 years from now will be Sony and Steambox.
Grimpak
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#9 - 2013-05-28 22:29:06 UTC
Unsuccessful At Everything wrote:
Kult Altol wrote:
Eli Green wrote:
The industry got too big too fast and it went to the head of all the big CEOs. They are now reaping their reward.



Consumers are also to blame demanding more and more content at a more rapid rate.


WHAT??!?!! This surely isnt the case with Eve Online.....

surely my sarcasm-o-meter isn't broken and reads 0 in this quote right here.

[img]http://eve-files.com/sig/grimpak[/img]

[quote]The more I know about humans, the more I love animals.[/quote] ain't that right
Kirjava
Lothian Enterprises
#10 - 2013-05-28 22:50:31 UTC
A recession is actually a healthy part of a capitalist economy, cull the weak, let their capital be absorbed by the strong who know how to manage it, rehire the people and get the factories back to work. The entertainment industry has long had this position of trying to keeps the goods time rolling, and its coming in for a viscous reality check.

Hence they are banking in sequels to roll in and cut the advertising, pushing 3D like a crack dealer and making it more difficult to watch the cheaper 2D presentations. This video isn't just Video Games, the whole Entertainment sector as a whole is guilty of this,Sony putting a virus on CD's, the list goes on really with the MPAA thinking they can dictated terms to the planet.

[center]Haruhiists - Overloading Out of Pod discussions since 2007. /人◕‿‿◕人\ Unban Saede![/center]
Kult Altol
The Safe Space
#11 - 2013-05-29 05:58:07 UTC
Kirjava wrote:
A recession is actually a healthy part of a capitalist economy, cull the weak, let their capital be absorbed by the strong who know how to manage it, rehire the people and get the factories back to work. The entertainment industry has long had this position of trying to keeps the goods time rolling, and its coming in for a viscous reality check.

Hence they are banking in sequels to roll in and cut the advertising, pushing 3D like a crack dealer and making it more difficult to watch the cheaper 2D presentations. This video isn't just Video Games, the whole Entertainment sector as a whole is guilty of this,Sony putting a virus on CD's, the list goes on really with the MPAA thinking they can dictated terms to the planet.


Countless reboots on super hero films.

[u]Can't wait untill when Eve online is Freemium.[/u] WiS only 10$, SP booster for one month 15$, DPS Boost 2$, EHP Boost 2$ Real money trading hub! Cosmeitic ship skins 15$ --> If you don't [u]pay **[/u]for a product, you ARE the [u]**product[/u].

Kirjava
Lothian Enterprises
#12 - 2013-05-29 06:03:10 UTC
At least the current batch are mediocre to pretty damned good.

Watch the old Captain America and compare with the new one for instance, I'm choosing to see the silver lining of them having to distil existing ideas, to a finished product.

[center]Haruhiists - Overloading Out of Pod discussions since 2007. /人◕‿‿◕人\ Unban Saede![/center]
pussnheels
Viziam
#13 - 2013-05-29 10:18:25 UTC
Adela Talvanen wrote:
Just watched this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&v=XZxXEidtxHk&NR=1

Quite interesting. Maybe history is going to repeat itself.


intersting point of view

and to be honest id EA eventually fails it will be a victory for all serious game developers and gamers

and if sony and MS go ahead with their no more used games application , well they probably going to shoot themselves in the foot

I do not agree with what you are saying , but i will defend to the death your right to say it...... Voltaire
Hesod Adee
Perkone
Caldari State
#14 - 2013-05-30 08:51:03 UTC  |  Edited by: Hesod Adee
pussnheels wrote:
and if sony and MS go ahead with their no more used games application , well they probably going to shoot themselves in the foot


If blocking second hand game sales is going to be such a bad move for Sony and MS, why is Steam so successful ?

Yes, gamers are complaining a lot about it now. But a lot of the people I see complaining are happy Steam users and/or MMO players who can't sell their games second hand. But the Xbone, the one that allows second hand sales for a fee, is the one people complain about. Not the services that block second hand sales completely.

I think this is going to be a repeat of the Modern Warfare 2 boycott.
Kirjava
Lothian Enterprises
#15 - 2013-05-30 09:37:43 UTC
If they pull of what Steam has done, periodic massive discounts to make massive proffits, it will work. The current distribution mechanism exists to pay for physical media and shops to get their share, who would boycott a product if sold at digital distribution costs like Steam. Steam is just PC, so it gets away with it, but if MS started getting the new COD sold for the cuts only it and Activision got, say £15 vs £40....

I'm coming around to MS point of view slowly, it makes sense for them to break the weak link in the chain keeping prices this high across the board.

[center]Haruhiists - Overloading Out of Pod discussions since 2007. /人◕‿‿◕人\ Unban Saede![/center]
Slade Trillgon
Brutor Force Federated
#16 - 2013-05-30 11:39:00 UTC  |  Edited by: Slade Trillgon
Purina™ Lol

I will just say, as it has to do with sports gamers and EA, I have thought the yearly releases on games like Madden and Fifa were a rip off from the get go. So this has been going on for longer then video games have been around.


AbhChallenger wrote:
That was a pretty good look at history and where the industry stands today. However, I personally do not think the gaming crash on a scale of that of '83 is possible unless it is part of a complete depression across the entire economy worse than the great depression.


An interesting point. Hollywood arguably had its best years during the Great Depression as it, hypothesized at least, boosted the moral of the citizens as it 'gave hope'.

Link 1
Link 2


People tend to spend more on simple entertainment during depressed economic times as it tends to provide a relatively cheap escape at a local level. Free to Play games will fill this niche for awhile if pay to play game developers depress, as they appeal to very basic Pavlovian principles. I believe the 'Gaming Industry' will continue to reinvent itself.... which it has been doing for at least a century.

So, the gaming industry is, and will forever be, in the middle of a very interesting evolution. Gaming has been part of man's society for eons. It wont leave us anytime soon, it will just continue to evolve.


As Kirjava touches on below.


Kirjava wrote:
A recession is actually a healthy part of a capitalist economy, cull the weak, let their capital be absorbed by the strong who know how to manage it, rehire the people and get the factories back to work. The entertainment industry has long had this position of trying to keeps the goods time rolling, and its coming in for a viscous reality check.

Hence they are banking in sequels to roll in and cut the advertising, pushing 3D like a crack dealer and making it more difficult to watch the cheaper 2D presentations. This video isn't just Video Games, the whole Entertainment sector as a whole is guilty of this,Sony putting a virus on CD's, the list goes on really with the MPAA thinking they can dictated terms to the planet.


Lol

The first paragraph makes it sound like you are a pure blooded capitalist, the second makes it sound like you would like to burn them at the stake.
Kirjava
Lothian Enterprises
#17 - 2013-05-30 11:48:59 UTC
Well, in many respects I am a pure blooded capitalist, and I understand the need for a regulated business too. look at the Canadian banks and tell me how bad the recession was there. There is a balance, and Canada got it spot on.

As a consumer, I am the one that can deprive them of my money that I would ordinarily pay them, voting with ones wallet. So as a capitalist, I know what I am doing to the industry by denying them sales to me, which when spread across the population.... Hey, if they want to start getting my money again, they know what they need to do.

[center]Haruhiists - Overloading Out of Pod discussions since 2007. /人◕‿‿◕人\ Unban Saede![/center]
Kult Altol
The Safe Space
#18 - 2013-05-30 17:11:05 UTC
Kirjava wrote:
Well, in many respects I am a pure blooded capitalist, and I understand the need for a regulated business too. look at the Canadian banks and tell me how bad the recession was there. There is a balance, and Canada got it spot on.

As a consumer, I am the one that can deprive them of my money that I would ordinarily pay them, voting with ones wallet. So as a capitalist, I know what I am doing to the industry by denying them sales to me, which when spread across the population.... Hey, if they want to start getting my money again, they know what they need to do.



Capitalist in eve? There is a God!

[u]Can't wait untill when Eve online is Freemium.[/u] WiS only 10$, SP booster for one month 15$, DPS Boost 2$, EHP Boost 2$ Real money trading hub! Cosmeitic ship skins 15$ --> If you don't [u]pay **[/u]for a product, you ARE the [u]**product[/u].

Hesod Adee
Perkone
Caldari State
#19 - 2013-05-30 23:56:29 UTC
Kirjava wrote:
If they pull of what Steam has done, periodic massive discounts to make massive proffits, it will work. The current distribution mechanism exists to pay for physical media and shops to get their share, who would boycott a product if sold at digital distribution costs like Steam. Steam is just PC, so it gets away with it, but if MS started getting the new COD sold for the cuts only it and Activision got, say £15 vs £40....

I'm coming around to MS point of view slowly, it makes sense for them to break the weak link in the chain keeping prices this high across the board.



Have you ever asked why Steams prices are the same as the boxed copies of a game, despite digital being cheaper ?

The only answer I've seen is that retailers have enough leverage that when they tell publishers to match prices or the retailer doesn't stock the game, the publishers give in.

Now consider the agreement between MS and retailers authorized to do second hand sales. That gives MS leverage to say that, if the retailer doesn't stock the games MS tells it to stock, they lose all their second hand sales. Now MS can sell digital copies for less than boxed copies, because they have negated the retailers leverage.

If that happens, publishers will have to chose between abandoning PC or matching that price from for digital versions of their PC games. Which means the retailers lose their leverage there as well. Same for Playstation, but I don't know if Sony has set up the infrastructure to sell everything digitally.

The end result being that platforms either die, or switch to digital distribution as most consumers will buy the cheaper copy. Either way, the retailers are screwed.

Now consider who forces preorder bonuses and ask yourself: Do retailers offer anything of value to gaming ?