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massive liquid ozone shortage!

Author
Danni stark
#21 - 2013-05-21 19:20:51 UTC  |  Edited by: Danni stark
Tinu Moorhsum wrote:
I don't know if this was directed at me or not.


no, not in particular. it was just that, depending on how we're defining it, cloaky campers etc make 0 difference to supply.
xPredat0rz
Grey Templars
Initiative Mercenaries
#22 - 2013-05-22 04:01:18 UTC  |  Edited by: xPredat0rz
You do realize that tha massive stockpiles of ice right? The only reason prices are going up now is speculation. Once people realize the world wont end it will stabilze again.

Yes a massive amount will probably not leave null sec. Alliances are already starting to get a bit more self suffiicent on buying fuel blocks from their members vs buying from pubbies. In saying that it will still be a massive export commodity for miners. The bottleneck wont be the supply per say it will be compressing it so its worth a damn to ship up.

Basically miners have been stockpiling while they wait for the change. I expect an extra 100m of each ice product has been mined and stockpiled since the change was announced. Add that to the massive stockpiles and the 200-300m of each product already on the open market and you have a nice nest egg.

When the patch happens i expect around 60% of the availble 80% will be mined daily. Not including null exports or self sufficency It will still take 6-7 months for the stockpiles to shrink to dangerous levels. Considering its easier to ship up a JF full of the Racial topses and use local LO/HW and PI to build blocks i expect the prices to not change dramatically.

Then again i could be full of ****.
Haulie Berry
#23 - 2013-05-22 04:36:56 UTC  |  Edited by: Haulie Berry
Kara Books wrote:
Or mining bots cannot mine since there's scanning involved.



I am completely baffled by the ongoing belief that this would be even mildly difficult to overcome for a bot author.

I would be shocked if the necessary code adjustments haven't already been made in preparation for the patch.
Elena Thiesant
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#24 - 2013-05-22 08:04:23 UTC  |  Edited by: Elena Thiesant
Haulie Berry wrote:
Kara Books wrote:
Or mining bots cannot mine since there's scanning involved.



I am completely baffled by the ongoing belief that this would be even mildly difficult to overcome for a bot author.


Especially since there's no scanning involved at all as the Odyssey scanner picks up anoms automatically.

An MMO that I played some years ago had a major bot problem and no matter what changes the devs made, the bots were working again 2, max 3 days after the changes were deployed. Sometimes the bots were back within hours.

I will be astonished if this stops mining bots for even a day, given that the changes should be up on SiSi well before Odyssey launches, so plenty of time for the bot authors to test and tweak their botting software
RubyPorto
RubysRhymes
#25 - 2013-05-22 08:17:45 UTC
igot theteef wrote:
Danni stark wrote:
you're wrong.

high sec isn't the only place with ice.



yes but the most lo will be from null sec and they have alot of pos to fuel themselves. idk it just seems like there will be a large shortage with the new changes.



If you bothered to do your research, you'd find that CCP Fozzie has posted some important numbers.

For example:
HS currently mines about 94% of Ice mined in EVE.
and
Krystallos is getting buffed to produce more LOz.
and, damningly,
HS uses less than 15% of the Isotopes used in EVE.


Now, while that's not a direct mention of how much LOz is used, it does give an indication of how small a scale HS Ice product usage is.

"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths." -Abrazzar "the risk of having your day ruined by other people is the cornerstone with which EVE was built" -CCP Solomon

Robert Caldera
Caldera Trading and Investment
#26 - 2013-05-22 11:39:39 UTC  |  Edited by: Robert Caldera
the market will balance itself.
If there is really a shortage of high sec mined LO, the price will explode enough, people in 0.0 will start mining ice too. And the price will continue skyrocketing once there is a shortage, thats for sure.
Danni stark
#27 - 2013-05-22 11:51:35 UTC
Robert Caldera wrote:
the market will balance itself.
If there is really a shortage of high sec mined LO, the price will explode enough, people in 0.0 will start mining ice too. And the price will continue skyrocketing once there is a shortage, thats for sure.


people will start mining ice even before the price explodes, mainly because it'll be more isk/hour than ore.
Felicity Love
Doomheim
#28 - 2013-05-22 19:45:43 UTC
BUY MOAR... or not. P

"EVE is dying." -- The Four Forum Trolls of the Apocalypse.   ( Pick four, any four. They all smell.  )

Bugsy VanHalen
Society of lost Souls
#29 - 2013-05-24 17:23:59 UTC
Haulie Berry wrote:
Kara Books wrote:
Or mining bots cannot mine since there's scanning involved.



I am completely baffled by the ongoing belief that this would be even mildly difficult to overcome for a bot author.

I would be shocked if the necessary code adjustments haven't already been made in preparation for the patch.

Exactly,
There are bot programs that not only mine, but warp back and fourth from station, empty cargo, warp to random bookmarks, target asteriods based on type, And know where the ore hold is full to go dump and start over.

Anyone who thinks a single click on the system scanner to get a warp to point will be hard for a bot programmer has no idea what bots can do.

A bot program is a lot more complex than a series of macros that any player can set up with a decent keyboard or gamepad.

Some of you may recall how in SWG there was a built in feature for setting up marcos. That was not botting, although it could be used to afk certain activities. A BOT program is a third party tool that can play the game for you while you are asleep or doing something else. Some have fairly complex A.I. that can be altered to play many different games. They can be programed to watch for certain ques on screen that will trigger programed reactions. Rats showing up can trigger defensive modules or drones, cargo being full can trigger warp to station and unload. asteroid popping can trigger a new target lock and cycle the mining mods. A well programed bot can be near impossible to differentiate between a live player. It is the poorly built bots and marcoers that usually get caught as bots.

This is why CCP's bot hunting includes programs that watch the code for interference caused by third party program interaction with the code.
Silvetica Dian
Imperial Shipment
Amarr Empire
#30 - 2013-05-26 15:20:50 UTC
Bethan Le Troix wrote:
I get the impression that mining ice and ore isn't the most popular activity in nul-sec so I personally predict trouble & shortages come June 4th onwards. You will probably see a massive price hike shortly followed by CCP increasing the amount of ice available in the high sec anomalies.

lots of things in null aren't the most popular.
Jump frieghter runs, POS fueling, Moon goo collection, carrier runs to fetch new ships, cyno placement for logistics runs, guarding cyno's for logistics runs etc etc. Somehow null sec struggles on. Maybe they spread out these tasks to various members so that no one person needs to do too much of it? who knows.......

TL:DR
If null sec needs it they have the manpower and the organisation to get it.

Money at its root is a form of rationing. When the richest 85 people have as much wealth as the poorest 3.5 billion (50% of humanity) it is clear where the source of poverty is. http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jan/20/trickle-down-economics-broken-promise-richest-85

Danni stark
#31 - 2013-05-26 15:29:31 UTC
Silvetica Dian wrote:
TL:DR
If null sec needs it they have the manpower and the organisation to get it.


even more so when you can get a max yield retriever pilot for exactly 1 plex after the expansion when dual training becomes a thing.
1 plex for a character that can earn 50m/hour and help your alliance. it's a steal!
DarthNefarius
Minmatar Heavy Industries
#32 - 2013-05-26 16:54:14 UTC  |  Edited by: DarthNefarius
Danni stark wrote:


is there really still an argument for having a shortage?

Yep almost no one (less then 6% of those that mine ice) mines ice currently in non HI sec. This is mostly due to **** tanks of barges. Skiff's & procurors will rise in price in NULL sec soon I bet.
So even with the announced changes how many new miners are there now are mining ICE in lo secQuestion
An' then [email protected], he come scramblin outta the    Terminal room screaming "The system's crashing! The system's    crashing!" -Uncle RAMus, 'Tales for Cyberpsychotic Children'
Danni stark
#33 - 2013-05-26 20:15:15 UTC
DarthNefarius wrote:
Danni stark wrote:


is there really still an argument for having a shortage?

Yep almost no one (less then 6% of those that mine ice) mines ice currently in non HI sec. This is mostly due to **** tanks of barges. Skiff's & procurors will rise in price in NULL sec soon I bet.
So even with the announced changes how many new miners are there now are mining ICE in lo secQuestion


you say that like the number of people that mine ice now in non-high sec is relevant. due to the fact that ice mining is changing, what is happening currently is largely irrelevant.

nobody will mine anything in low sec. it's low sec, and it's bad.

also the tank of barges is irrelevant, even in null sec. just drop one ratting ship in the belt with you and nuke the rats before they do any damage to anything.
Felicity Love
Doomheim
#34 - 2013-05-26 20:20:40 UTC
... wonders if an ice "interdiction" during Odyssey might set the stage for the emergence of an ice cartel, given the changes to both valuable moon resources and ice dynamics. Shocked

"EVE is dying." -- The Four Forum Trolls of the Apocalypse.   ( Pick four, any four. They all smell.  )

Danni stark
#35 - 2013-05-26 20:47:05 UTC
Felicity Love wrote:
... wonders if an ice "interdiction" during Odyssey might set the stage for the emergence of an ice cartel, given the changes to both valuable moon resources and ice dynamics. Shocked



probably but would it be worth it?
could you raise the prices of ice enough with this kind of method to make it more lucrative than just mining the **** out of everything and dumping it to the market? i mean. look at notec. from what i gather that was "hoard it all and get rich" yet the only people that got rich were the people not in notec as they sold their stockpiles on the following price spike... (or i could be talking ****, i didn't really understand notec)
Felicity Love
Doomheim
#36 - 2013-05-26 22:27:53 UTC
Indeed, but if it's worth it then it will be done. Such an effort would not only spike the costs of running POS but also put increasing constraints on large cap ship operations. So, that kind of economic warfare becomes not only lucrative but strategic.

All of which would also fulfill CCP's desire to see ice products become a major conflict driver.

I guess we'll see when the time comes. Cool

"EVE is dying." -- The Four Forum Trolls of the Apocalypse.   ( Pick four, any four. They all smell.  )

Bugsy VanHalen
Society of lost Souls
#37 - 2013-05-27 14:23:09 UTC  |  Edited by: Bugsy VanHalen
DarthNefarius wrote:
Danni stark wrote:


is there really still an argument for having a shortage?

Yep almost no one (less then 6% of those that mine ice) mines ice currently in non HI sec. This is mostly due to **** tanks of barges. Skiff's & procurors will rise in price in NULL sec soon I bet.
So even with the announced changes how many new miners are there now are mining ICE in lo secQuestion

Explain to me please what makes a Skiff better than a Mack in null sec? The Tank? What good does a tank do on a ship that can not fight back? If you are in Null sec in a situation where you need your tank it better just be for rats. If a PVPer or small gang gets you in a situation where they are eating through your tank you have already lost. If you are tackled and being attacked what is going to happen? You are not going anywhere, you are going to get popped. Will a larger tank prevent this? No, you are tackled and not going anywhere. An 80K ehp tank will only mean the attackers need a few extra seconds to kill you, that tank will not save you.

In high sec tank saves you, when they attack they only have 20-30 seconds to kill you before CONCORD shows up. Extra tank means they need to bring more DPS to kill you in that 20 second window. In null sec there is no window, no limit to the time they have to kill you. All they have to do is tackle you and you are dead, tank only affects how many seconds it takes to kill you, it does not allow you to get away.

What happens if you are lucky enough to have a friendly gang in the area that can come to your aid? Well chances are from the time you call for help until the cavalry arrives will be a couple minutes. Even a solo BC can kill a skiff in a couple minutes. Best case scenario is the friendly fleet catches the attackers and kills them, but chances are you are still dead before they get there.

So what does help you survive in null sec in a mining ship. The answer is speed. Being able to align and warp before they land on grid will do you much more good than having a large tank, normally once you start taking damage the fight is already decided. A skiff does have better speed and agility than the other mining ships, except the Venture. A venture can mine some what safely anywhere. It is very fast to warp out and has a +2 warp strength, So if they do get a lock on you they need 3 points to lock you down. A skiff, while much better than a Mack in this regard is still not near fast enough to escape. Maybe restoring the skiffs +2 warp strength would make it the ultimate null sec miner.

With the current system if you are mining in a grav site your attackers need to scan you down first. if you are watching D-scan this will give you those extra few seconds you need to GTFO. With the coming changes they will be able to warp to your grav site right away after jumping into the system. This means every time you see a neutral you will have to safe up. I guess many null sec miners do this already, but for those of us not hiding deep inside blue territory neutrals are far more common. If I have to spend half my time hidding in a POS shield rather than mining the higher isk/hr really doesn't mean much. if the population of null sec rises neutrals will become even more common.
Styth spiting
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#38 - 2013-05-28 05:45:45 UTC
igot theteef wrote:
is it just me or does it seem like there is going to be a massive Liquid ozone shortage with the new changes? From what i can find there are approx 145 ice belts currently in high sec each getting 2500 blocks each respawning every 4 hours. So basicly if i am understanding what the devs are saying each ice belt will become an ice anom so 145x 2500x 25lo= a little over 9 mil liquid ozone. now if it is minned like clockwork in all of high sec 5 times a day you get what 45 mil lo? At that rate if they are mined out at that rate they can only supply enough ozone to fuel 10 large pos's a day. I mean correct me if i am wrong but it seems like lo will fing skyrocket after the new expansion and after the glut of liquid ozone


145 belts x 2500 blocks x 4 (assuming 1 hour to mine, 1 hour to respawn) is about the max spawn rate (it would take nearly 21 exhumers to mine out a belt in less then 1 hour). 1,450,000 blocks per day.

25 liquid ozone per block = 36,250,000 liquid ozone.

150 liquid ozone per run of 40 fuel blocks = 241,666 runs, or 9,666,640 fuel blocks.

40 fuel blocks per hour, 24 hours per day = enough fuel blocks to fuel 10,069 large POS for 1 day, or 335 POS for 1 month, or 27 POS for 1 year.

Total ice mined per month could fuel 10,050 large POS for 1 month, or 837 large POS for 1 year.

Mara Rinn
Cosmic Goo Convertor
#39 - 2013-05-28 06:37:28 UTC
Silvetica Dian wrote:
If null sec needs it they have the manpower and the organisation to get it.


I look forward to seeing the result of nullsec alliances putting out CTA for ice harvesting operations. Will they end up harvesting ice or will people stop logging in and responding to Jabber pings?
Danni stark
#40 - 2013-05-28 07:26:44 UTC
Mara Rinn wrote:
Silvetica Dian wrote:
If null sec needs it they have the manpower and the organisation to get it.


I look forward to seeing the result of nullsec alliances putting out CTA for ice harvesting operations. Will they end up harvesting ice or will people stop logging in and responding to Jabber pings?


give a new player a plex and he can play for 30 days.
give a new player a plex after odyssey and he can train a 25 day hero retriever and play for free if he gives the alliance 10-11 hours of his time each month mining ice.
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