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Details and update on the Ice Anomaly design

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Pom Agrant
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#201 - 2013-05-15 18:26:10 UTC
Vas Vadum wrote:
Pom Agrant wrote:

We will not have enough ice in nullsec to support our alliance. Our jump bridges, moon mining, capital jumps, rorq compression, etc will all come to a screeeching halt.

You are most likely correct.
I have made my own spreadsheet calculating only isotopes and guessing at how many starbases exist and are running in tiers of sec status: http://qr.net/eveicecalc

As you can see, highsec will lose 75% of it's starbases, lowsec will lose 45% of it's starbases, and null will lose the most of all.


Those are scary numbers. If you include the demand for capital jump fuels, and the fact that we will probably never be fully mining out all of the available ice... we are in big trouble. Eve is going to stop... game over. :)
Danni stark
#202 - 2013-05-15 18:56:57 UTC
Pom Agrant wrote:
This is enough ice to make 122500 fuel blocks; which is enough to fuel 4.25 large POSs for 1 month. Basically, we can fuel 21 POSs for 1 month, per day, if we are mining 23/7.


so what you're saying is; one ice anomaly can fuel 630 poses, if it's mined out 5x per day every day?

Ice Mining Skill Plan.
Arckaon
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#203 - 2013-05-15 18:57:02 UTC
we have lot of alt for mining ice so i think ice in null sec will not be an issue

Wait and see
Pom Agrant
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#204 - 2013-05-15 19:05:08 UTC
Danni stark wrote:
Pom Agrant wrote:
This is enough ice to make 122500 fuel blocks; which is enough to fuel 4.25 large POSs for 1 month. Basically, we can fuel 21 POSs for 1 month, per day, if we are mining 23/7.


so what you're saying is; one ice anomaly can fuel 630 poses, if it's mined out 5x per day every day?


Yes, if you mine for an entire month, 23/7. Right now, we have a mining op once a month. After the patch, the mining op becomes a whole month. :)
Danni stark
#205 - 2013-05-15 19:17:51 UTC
Pom Agrant wrote:
Danni stark wrote:
Pom Agrant wrote:
This is enough ice to make 122500 fuel blocks; which is enough to fuel 4.25 large POSs for 1 month. Basically, we can fuel 21 POSs for 1 month, per day, if we are mining 23/7.


so what you're saying is; one ice anomaly can fuel 630 poses, if it's mined out 5x per day every day?


Yes, if you mine for an entire month, 23/7. Right now, we have a mining op once a month. After the patch, the mining op becomes a whole month. :)


so really, it's the lack of miners, not the lack of ice that's the issue ;)

Ice Mining Skill Plan.
Pom Agrant
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#206 - 2013-05-15 19:29:28 UTC
Actually, it is a huge lack of ice. The anoms will be mined out immediately every time they spawn. We will not be able to have a mining op for one day on the weekend and get all of the ice we need for one month - it won't be there. Instead, we will have to mine a little bit at a time, every day, and probably move to other systems to find ice that hasn't been mined out.

The main issue I see is the total amount of ice available in the whole Eve universe. It is not enough to fuel all of the POSs and capitals in the game at the moment. Imagine the huge effect on the economy and movements in nullsec, if there simply is not enough fuel for everything, regardless of price.
Danni stark
#207 - 2013-05-15 19:39:45 UTC  |  Edited by: Danni stark
Pom Agrant wrote:
Actually, it is a huge lack of ice. The anoms will be mined out immediately every time they spawn. We will not be able to have a mining op for one day on the weekend and get all of the ice we need for one month - it won't be there. Instead, we will have to mine a little bit at a time, every day, and probably move to other systems to find ice that hasn't been mined out.

The main issue I see is the total amount of ice available in the whole Eve universe. It is not enough to fuel all of the POSs and capitals in the game at the moment. Imagine the huge effect on the economy and movements in nullsec, if there simply is not enough fuel for everything, regardless of price.



if the anoms will be mined out every time they spawn, the ice products will be there. go and check the market. just because it's not there for you to mine, doesn't mean there's a shortage.

considering if i'm not mistaken, we were told high sec alone can supply 80% of current demand, non-high sec has to supply only a quarter of what high sec can with more ice available to it. how do you come to the conclusion there's not enough ice available?

there's more than enough fuel, should people be bothered to go and mine it.

Ice Mining Skill Plan.
Lugues Slive
Diamond Light Industries
gold fever
#208 - 2013-05-15 20:02:46 UTC
I read somewhere that high sec currently supplies 90%+ of ice demand and the new changes will reduce this to 80%. But the question I have is; is the current 90%+ how much of the demand is mined or just bought in high sec?

If high sec mines 110% of demand, then the excess causes prices to drop, but if high sec is limited to mining 80%, we could see an excessive hike in prices.
Robert Saint
The Grumpy Dogs
#209 - 2013-05-15 20:47:35 UTC
To assume 100 percent player efficiency in regarding to ice spawn mining, would assume that every ice spawn is being mined completely every spawn, with nothing missed, in every system. As well as every miner is selling his ICE to cover demand (which will now be exact to use) If the facts are indeed accurate that the ICE spawns will be limited based on actual CURRENT use, then the players that need ICE related products are in for a world of hurt seeing that there is so much more to do in this game then just wait for ICE belts, and players will HOARD product so they don’t have to deal with the ICE spawn craziness. You will have to have at least double the supply need available to mine or the “Universe is Doomed”.
Yes I used to play DC Universe…. Very cool trailer!!!
Arckaon
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#210 - 2013-05-15 20:50:53 UTC
if we mine all ice anomalies, we can supply 4 times and more the demand

so no lack of ice just people who dont want to move or mine in low sec or null sec

end of the large afk
Aryth
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#211 - 2013-05-15 23:26:53 UTC
Pom Agrant wrote:
Actually, it is a huge lack of ice. The anoms will be mined out immediately every time they spawn. We will not be able to have a mining op for one day on the weekend and get all of the ice we need for one month - it won't be there. Instead, we will have to mine a little bit at a time, every day, and probably move to other systems to find ice that hasn't been mined out.

The main issue I see is the total amount of ice available in the whole Eve universe. It is not enough to fuel all of the POSs and capitals in the game at the moment. Imagine the huge effect on the economy and movements in nullsec, if there simply is not enough fuel for everything, regardless of price.



Are you saying that instead of supplying your empire with 1 belt, for one weekend a month, you have to use your space daily? And possibly take more space? Fugging CCP, those MONSTERS

Leader of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal.

Creator of Burn Jita

Vile Rat: You're the greatest sociopath that has ever played eve.
Sir Marksalot
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#212 - 2013-05-15 23:42:00 UTC  |  Edited by: Sir Marksalot
Aryth wrote:
Pom Agrant wrote:
Actually, it is a huge lack of ice. The anoms will be mined out immediately every time they spawn. We will not be able to have a mining op for one day on the weekend and get all of the ice we need for one month - it won't be there. Instead, we will have to mine a little bit at a time, every day, and probably move to other systems to find ice that hasn't been mined out.

The main issue I see is the total amount of ice available in the whole Eve universe. It is not enough to fuel all of the POSs and capitals in the game at the moment. Imagine the huge effect on the economy and movements in nullsec, if there simply is not enough fuel for everything, regardless of price.



Are you saying that instead of supplying your empire with 1 belt, for one weekend a month, you have to use your space daily? And possibly take more space? Fugging CCP, those MONSTERS


Who the hell runs corp ice mining ops anyways. Fuel is cheap, it's a waste of time.



I mean, if you have 40 accounts mining dark glitter then I guess ~you go girl~ but otherwise it's kind of dumb
Giovannona Coscialunga
Imperial Academy
Amarr Empire
#213 - 2013-05-16 00:02:49 UTC
Lugues Slive wrote:
I read somewhere that high sec currently supplies 90%+ of ice demand and the new changes will reduce this to 80% [...].


No, the 90%+ is the quantity mined in HS in respect of all the ice mined in the universe.

I'll quote myself:

Giovannona Coscialunga wrote:
Beware that 94% is based on the ice mined in the whole universe and after patch they want to reduce the quantity of ice enough to cover the 80% of the demand of the whole universe. They are two different things.

So if every day in the universe 1m of ice blocks are mined (numbers just made-up) but the demand in the whole universe is of 100k, that 94% is referred to that 1m (so 940k blocks are mined in HS).
What they want to do after patch is that HS will be able to give only 80k blocks per day (the 80% of the demand).

So it's not easy to say "lowsec, nullsec miners will have to mines x% more than before" without knowing what is the actual demand.
El 1974
Green Visstick High
#214 - 2013-05-16 04:12:40 UTC
Pom Agrant wrote:


Anyone want to check my math? This is what I get in my spreadsheet for a single anom in a strong truesec null system:


Heavy water: 1268750
Liquid Ozone: 1615000
Nitrogen isotopes: 1225000

This is enough ice to make 122500 fuel blocks; which is enough to fuel 4.25 large POSs for 1 month. Basically, we can fuel 21 POSs for 1 month, per day, if we are mining 23/7.

Who mines 23/7?

We will not have enough ice in nullsec to support our alliance. Our jump bridges, moon mining, capital jumps, rorq compression, etc will all come to a screeeching halt.

Please tell me I am wrong... I really hope this is not the case.

Regards

21 POSs for 1 month, PER DAY, if you mine all day means you can fuel 630 POSs if you mine 1 ice anomaly 23/7
Lugues Slive
Diamond Light Industries
gold fever
#215 - 2013-05-16 05:27:15 UTC
Giovannona Coscialunga wrote:
Lugues Slive wrote:
I read somewhere that high sec currently supplies 90%+ of ice demand and the new changes will reduce this to 80% [...].


No, the 90%+ is the quantity mined in HS in respect of all the ice mined in the universe.

I'll quote myself:

Giovannona Coscialunga wrote:
Beware that 94% is based on the ice mined in the whole universe and after patch they want to reduce the quantity of ice enough to cover the 80% of the demand of the whole universe. They are two different things.

So if every day in the universe 1m of ice blocks are mined (numbers just made-up) but the demand in the whole universe is of 100k, that 94% is referred to that 1m (so 940k blocks are mined in HS).
What they want to do after patch is that HS will be able to give only 80k blocks per day (the 80% of the demand).

So it's not easy to say "lowsec, nullsec miners will have to mines x% more than before" without knowing what is the actual demand.


This backs up my point. Using your numbers, 10x of the demand is supplied which causes an unnaturally low cost per unit. By reducing the supply to 9% of its current amount, the price per unit will skyrocket.
Robert Saint
The Grumpy Dogs
#216 - 2013-05-16 06:32:41 UTC
Arckaon wrote:
if we mine all ice anomalies, we can supply 4 times and more the demand

so no lack of ice just people who dont want to move or mine in low sec or null sec

end of the large afk



it would seem that "I" (as well as many of us ICE miners) am not understanding the change if you are accurate.
From what i read, our current almost Unlimited supply (huge rocks) of ICE in High sec is now going to be Veldspar size rocks with a grand total of only 2500 blocks per system spawn.

Well my little mining fleet of 8 miners, an Orca and Freighter pilot currently mine about 3500 blocks a field run. As well as a whole bunch of other little ships with rock lasers blasting all around me. About 50 miners at once I think most of the time in my belt. For sure, the big business ICE runners are going to be moving on after the patch as it's just not workable to fight for such minimal supply (unless of course the prices are insane on the product).

The Dev post looked like it spelled out current supply, as in USE. With such a drastic change in quantity of rock size and availability, it would seem a huge change is going to occur.

How did you figure the 4X's number from the DEV post. I may have missed the part where it was stated that X number or blocks are used total so we are going to multiply that by 4 and give you that many blocks to mine?
Hustomte
Veritex Industrial Inc.
#217 - 2013-05-16 06:59:55 UTC
The tragedy of ice miners right now is that they are all convinced that prices will dramatically increase after patch. What they don't know is that it wont. Just as the 1637 Dutch Tulip mania crash left many in ruin. The price will continue to rise to patch day and then continue to peak and drop like a rock. Those not selling their isotopes now will be left with less isk than if they sold during the price ramp up. Believe me, the price bubble will burst.

Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. *cough*housingcrisis*cough*

...Signature...
El 1974
Green Visstick High
#218 - 2013-05-16 08:33:01 UTC
Robert Saint wrote:
Arckaon wrote:
if we mine all ice anomalies, we can supply 4 times and more the demand

so no lack of ice just people who dont want to move or mine in low sec or null sec

end of the large afk



it would seem that "I" (as well as many of us ICE miners) am not understanding the change if you are accurate.
From what i read, our current almost Unlimited supply (huge rocks) of ICE in High sec is now going to be Veldspar size rocks with a grand total of only 2500 blocks per system spawn.

Well my little mining fleet of 8 miners, an Orca and Freighter pilot currently mine about 3500 blocks a field run. As well as a whole bunch of other little ships with rock lasers blasting all around me. About 50 miners at once I think most of the time in my belt. For sure, the big business ICE runners are going to be moving on after the patch as it's just not workable to fight for such minimal supply (unless of course the prices are insane on the product).

The Dev post looked like it spelled out current supply, as in USE. With such a drastic change in quantity of rock size and availability, it would seem a huge change is going to occur.

How did you figure the 4X's number from the DEV post. I may have missed the part where it was stated that X number or blocks are used total so we are going to multiply that by 4 and give you that many blocks to mine?


Arckaon is talking about low+nullsec. Nullsec can provide more than twice the ice products Eve needs even without cycling the sites (estimates based on my own numbers). Ofcourse they will not mine and ship that for free. This means prices will be very high (already are a lot higher than they used to be). I think the big ice runners will have to scale down their operation in hisec, and/or move to nullsec. Ice will still be the best to mine afk-ish in hisec. The real loser is CCP: they will lose many subscriptions.
Danni stark
#219 - 2013-05-16 08:54:39 UTC
Sir Marksalot wrote:
Who the hell runs corp ice mining ops anyways. Fuel is cheap, it's a waste of time.

I mean, if you have 40 accounts mining dark glitter then I guess ~you go girl~ but otherwise it's kind of dumb


at the moment, nobody probably does.

however, at current prices when odyssey hits ice will be worth more isk/hour than ore so every one who does any kind of mining activity will be all over those belts like carrion crows.

granted 50m/hour in an ice anom isn't quite as good as the what, 60-80m you can get in a hub with a talos right now? but how viable is that going to be after the changes to hubs? not to mention, an ice miner will set you back exactly 1 plex and an empty character slot, large t2 blasters take almost twice as long to train for on their own, before you consider the hull, the support skills etc.

i think interesting things will happen in odyssey, and i like it.

Ice Mining Skill Plan.
Danni stark
#220 - 2013-05-16 09:13:24 UTC
El 1974 wrote:
21 POSs for 1 month, PER DAY, if you mine all day means you can fuel 630 POSs if you mine 1 ice anomaly 23/7


it's not even 23/7. in order to get the most ice out of an anomaly you have to make it spawn 5x per day. with a 4hr respawn that's 20 hours of waiting, and 4 hours to clear them. so really it's only 4/7 so for 4 hours mining per week (provided sufficient miners to empty a belt in 48 mins) you can fuel 630 towers.

consider that if you did mine 23/7 that's 5.75x more mining. that means a fleet that can clear ice anomalies in 48 mins that mines non stop can provide enough ice for ~3.6k towers. however that's a bit unrealistic because there wouldn't be enough ice anomalies in one system to allow you to do that, however even with 3 ice anomalies in a system which is possible you'll be able to fuel 1890 towers and that's mining 12/7.

although it's probably worth pointing out that it takes ~36hrs 20mins to empty an ice anomaly using a single rorqual boosted 25day hero retriever. so you're probably looking at a fleet of 38-45 miners to clear an ice anomaly in 48 mins.

so much napkin math, can you tell it's early in the morning and i'm bored?

Ice Mining Skill Plan.