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Dust 1/10th of eve?

First post First post
Author
Frake Lomes
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#21 - 2013-05-14 04:21:47 UTC
Must have doom and gloom...it's fun to read
Setaceous
Nexus Prima
#22 - 2013-05-14 04:24:39 UTC
Frake Lomes wrote:
Must have doom and gloom...it's fun to read

Indeed. It also goes a long way to prove my theory that if a person has no real major problems in their life, they turn minor problems into major ones to compensate.
Destiny Corrupted
Deadly Viper Kitten Mitten Sewing Company
Senpai's Afterschool Anime and Gaming Club
#23 - 2013-05-14 04:31:23 UTC
I think a lot of you optimists overlook the fact that Sony didn't let CCP make a PC version due to the Planetside IP, and CCP is locked into a contract with a company that can eat them because of cashbucks. Companies tend to do things because of legal obligations as often as they do things by choice.

Can Dust do well? Sure. Sometimes longshots win. Do let me know when more than about ten thousand people care though.

I wrote some true EVE stories! And no, they're not of the generic "my 0.0 alliance had lots of 0.0 fleets and took a lot of 0.0 space" sort. Check them out here:

https://truestories.eveonline.com/users/2074-destiny-corrupted

Katran Luftschreck
Royal Ammatar Engineering Corps
#24 - 2013-05-14 04:31:29 UTC
10% of the players... yet what percentage of developer time & effort?

I think I see the real problem here.

"Bet everything on Red!"

http://youtu.be/t0q2F8NsYQ0

Super spikinator
Hegemonous Conscripts
#25 - 2013-05-14 04:35:25 UTC
FlamesOfHeaven wrote:
Aria Jimbojohnson wrote:
Have you seen the DUST forums? The launch build isn't exactly getting high praise.


The wall of QQ and whines in Dust 514 GD is worst than EvE GD. Big smile

Something is NOT right! Lol


We've had time to refine our GD, they are young. Give them time and they will develop in their own soft-spot headed way.
Marlona Sky
State War Academy
Caldari State
#26 - 2013-05-14 07:57:14 UTC
Destiny Corrupted wrote:
I think a lot of you optimists overlook the fact that Sony didn't let CCP make a PC version due to the Planetside IP, and CCP is locked into a contract with a company that can eat them because of cashbucks. Companies tend to do things because of legal obligations as often as they do things by choice.

Any valid links we can look at to view these mysterious contracts?
Destiny Corrupted wrote:
Can Dust do well? Sure. Sometimes longshots win. Do let me know when more than about ten thousand people care though.

I'm going to assume you were not around for the first few years of EVE with that attitude.
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#27 - 2013-05-14 08:01:47 UTC
Destiny Corrupted wrote:
I think a lot of you optimists overlook the fact that Sony didn't let CCP make a PC version due to the Planetside IP, and CCP is locked into a contract with a company that can eat them because of cashbucks.
…which makes a lot of sense seeing as how the decision not to make a PC version was made long before it Sony had any say in the matter and since they don't have any say in the matter after the fact either. Wait what?

Roll
Herr Esiq
Viziam
#28 - 2013-05-14 08:03:32 UTC
Destiny Corrupted wrote:
FPSMMOs generally don't "grow" after release. The first few weeks will most likely as good as it gets for Dust. Just look at some other examples out there, eg. Planetside 2. It's a great game by all means, but it's population quickly fell after the initial launch boom.

It's simply the nature of the MMOFPS game market; it doesn't behave like traditional games in the genre. Dust might turn out to be successful in its own right, but I wouldn't bet on it growing over time like EVE did.

Whilst i generally agree with you there are exceptions out there like World of Tanks. That game started horrible and complaining all around when it was still in beta. It took a lot of time and even more patches till the game became playable like it is now.

I hope for CCP that they are in it for the long haul and expand their platforms to PS4 and PC so the time they invested wont go to waste, because i believe in the vision CCP has in a big universe.
Rakshasa Taisab
Sane Industries Inc.
#29 - 2013-05-14 08:03:58 UTC
I hear a game that has had pretty much no advertisement as of yet is dying cause it failed on the pretty much not advertised at all launch day.

Which, by the way isn't being launched until later today so you can't even play with the Planetary Conquest or new weapons / suits.

Nyan

Chribba
Otherworld Enterprises
Otherworld Empire
#30 - 2013-05-14 08:06:20 UTC
Speaking as a non-FPS person here (my encounters in the FPS area was some minor Blood and Quake3 Arena 10 years ago). Since then I've not played any FPS, never tried CS, CoD, MW, BF or similar.

Due to the love of EVE (also the only game I played for the past 10 years except some hours of Final Fantasy on PS) I tried DUST. And my impression is that just as EVE, DUST isn't the normal FPS where you just go right into it and shoot like crazy.

It takes a similar level of training and thinking like EVE in terms of choosing what to train for and similar. So I think maybe the focus group of DUST isn't the normal FPS player that will try the new game that comes out until the next one arrives. DUST looks more aimed at the long term player - like myself.

Of course we go screaming DUST is dying, CCP is doing it all wrong... wait wrong? Yeah they might be doing things that are wrong from various perspectives, sure I'd like to have it on PC as well so I don't have to move between the computer and PS3. Question is, do we really know exactly what their intentions are? Is their intentions to completely run over CoD, BF, CS and you name it? Could their goal be like EVE to build over time, a long term relationship with its players and not just until the next game comes out?

I'm not claiming to know the right path, I don't even claim I have any idea if CCP knows what they are doing - for all I know this could be a huge screw up. What I do know though is that it's most likely too soon for anyone to make a proper judgement if this is going to work or not.

They do listen to the players, just as they do and did in EVE, I've seen many times in EVE were it feels like they don't listen and other times when they are sitting in your lap listening. Plus the fact that we've only been in beta until today makes the call of death even harder.

I personally find DUST very enjoyable, but then that doesn't say much due to my limited experience with FPS games, but I for one am very interested to see how it turns out even if we won't know more within the next year (probably), and hopefully by then we will also see what CCP's intentions are and what their strategy is, and for whom.

Finally, do the numbers look good? Well it's going down like one would expect from the hype calming down (and it has for a while now) but still having 3000-4000 players on, that's quite good, EVE peaked at 5000 back in the days too, so what are we expecting here? 25,000 online on average after 2 months? I seriously doubt that, I'd be surprised if we kept and average of over 10,000 in the first year - but I find it all very interesting to be a part of.

/c

★★★ Secure 3rd party service ★★★

Visit my in-game channel 'Holy Veldspar'

Twitter @ChribbaVeldspar

Malcanis
Vanishing Point.
The Initiative.
#31 - 2013-05-14 08:11:18 UTC
Destiny Corrupted wrote:
FPSMMOs generally don't "grow" after release...


Neither do MMOs in general.

"Just remember later that I warned against any change to jump ranges or fatigue. You earned whats coming."

Grath Telkin, 11.10.2016

Destiny Corrupted
Deadly Viper Kitten Mitten Sewing Company
Senpai's Afterschool Anime and Gaming Club
#32 - 2013-05-14 08:19:25 UTC
Marlona Sky wrote:
Destiny Corrupted wrote:
I think a lot of you optimists overlook the fact that Sony didn't let CCP make a PC version due to the Planetside IP, and CCP is locked into a contract with a company that can eat them because of cashbucks. Companies tend to do things because of legal obligations as often as they do things by choice.

Any valid links we can look at to view these mysterious contracts?

CCP's financials and Sony's financials give a tiny bit of insight into both companies' doings, but let's face it, we as consumers aren't exactly privy to everything that happens in the boardrooms. Developer intent and game features also give a tiny bit of insight. I obviously follow CCP and I'm like BR90 in PS2 with a vet tag so it's relatively easy for me to see those similarities. Gee guys, we have a PC FPS IP with a decade-old history and a brand new FPS IP with none essentially owned by the same company, what's gonna happen?
Marlona Sky wrote:
Destiny Corrupted wrote:
Can Dust do well? Sure. Sometimes longshots win. Do let me know when more than about ten thousand people care though.

I'm going to assume you were not around for the first few years of EVE with that attitude.

Spring 2004. I guess that makes me somewhat of an EVE pubbie but there ain't a whole lot of people left who can call me that anymore...

Tippia wrote:
which makes a lot of sense seeing as how the decision not to make a PC version was made long before it Sony had any say in the matter and since they don't have any say in the matter after the fact either. Wait what?

Roll

I don't know man, Planetside's pretty old. And like I said, we don't know what goes on behind closed scenes in the corporate world, but one of the things that stuck in business school was how everyone generally agreed that the moves happen before the public knows about them. It happens in-game too. Bought any ice within the past few years?

I wrote some true EVE stories! And no, they're not of the generic "my 0.0 alliance had lots of 0.0 fleets and took a lot of 0.0 space" sort. Check them out here:

https://truestories.eveonline.com/users/2074-destiny-corrupted

Destiny Corrupted
Deadly Viper Kitten Mitten Sewing Company
Senpai's Afterschool Anime and Gaming Club
#33 - 2013-05-14 08:32:55 UTC  |  Edited by: Destiny Corrupted
Malcanis wrote:
Destiny Corrupted wrote:
FPSMMOs generally don't "grow" after release...


Neither do MMOs in general.

Generally in general, yes. The thing about EVE is that it started really small. It could either fail immediately, or grow; it grew. Aside from WoW, the western MMO market pales in comparison to its Asian counterpart. Ever play Maple Story? That thing couldn't have had more than like two and a half players in the beginning. Then look what happened. Over-hyped games by major studios, on the other hand, have nowhere to go but down. There are exceptions, as with everything, but we can probably agree that small projects are likely to grow and large ones to shrink.

I mean, I really appreciate all of this pro-CCP sentiment as if the company is some kind of infallible being that does no wrong, but things can literally change within the course of a day. One minute we're buying PLEXes, the next CCP announces "accounting malpractice" and loses sixty percent of its books. Or maybe it will buy out SOE in 2014 instead. It's pretty weird how money works.

The best that can happen is that I'm flat-out wrong in my personal Dust prediction and then you can make fun of me while I cover my face with one of those black bars you get in Japanese pornos, and the worst thing that can happen is that you're gonna have to join my WoW guild.

And in regard to Dust's popularity, I have to agree with the guy above who said that not a single one of his friends gives a crap about it. Out of the few friends I have left who don't already know about EVE (I mean come on I've tried to bring everyone I know into this game at some point), not a single one has heard of or cares about Dust in any way. Even the ones who own Playstations. How many of them know that the next Battlefield will let you put scopes on the sides of your guns? All of them. Believing that Dust will become an FPS powerhouse isn't rational; it's fanboyism.

I wrote some true EVE stories! And no, they're not of the generic "my 0.0 alliance had lots of 0.0 fleets and took a lot of 0.0 space" sort. Check them out here:

https://truestories.eveonline.com/users/2074-destiny-corrupted

Malcanis
Vanishing Point.
The Initiative.
#34 - 2013-05-14 08:40:40 UTC
Destiny Corrupted wrote:
Malcanis wrote:
Destiny Corrupted wrote:
FPSMMOs generally don't "grow" after release...


Neither do MMOs in general.

Generally in general, yes. The thing about EVE is that it started really small. It could either fail immediately, or grow; it grew. Aside from WoW, the western MMO market pales in comparison to its Asian counterpart. Ever play Maple Story? That thing couldn't have had more than like two and a half players in the beginning. Then look what happened. Over-hyped games by major studios, on the other hand, have nowhere to go but down. There are exceptions, as with everything, but we can probably agree that small projects are likely to grow and large ones to shrink.

I mean, I really appreciate all of this pro-CCP sentiment as if the company is some kind of infallible being that does no wrong, but things can literally change within the course of a day. One minute we're buying PLEXes, the next CCP announces "accounting malpractice" and loses sixty percent of its books. Or maybe it will buy out SOE in 2014 instead. It's pretty weird how money works.

The best that can happen is that I'm flat-out wrong in my personal Dust prediction and then you can make fun of me while I cover my face with one of those black bars you get in Japanese pornos, and the worst thing that can happen is that you're gonna have to join my WoW guild.


The point is that CCP are also structuring Dust rather differently to other FPSMMOs.

1) It's free
2) So are the expansions
3) They've committed to long term support

These are all "long term growth" enablers. I'm not saying that it's a lock, I'm just saying that the traditional barriers to long term growth are not present. If the market is ready for a long term accretive growth model FPSMMO, DUST is in place to to reap the rewards. If not, then it won't. But right know we just don't know, because it's never been seriously tried before.

I definitely don't believe CCP "can do no wrong" - in fact the DUST team are rediscovering quite a few learnings that the EVE team have slowly and painfully acquired over the last 5 years - but I do give them full marks for actually trying to do something new and different in their game model, and giving Joe Console credit for not just wanting to dowload Call Of Duty: Black Ops: Space Marines vs Toy Story: Wallet **** Edition

"Just remember later that I warned against any change to jump ranges or fatigue. You earned whats coming."

Grath Telkin, 11.10.2016

Destiny Corrupted
Deadly Viper Kitten Mitten Sewing Company
Senpai's Afterschool Anime and Gaming Club
#35 - 2013-05-14 08:50:12 UTC
Malcanis wrote:
The point is that CCP are also structuring Dust rather differently to other FPSMMOs.

1) It's free
2) So are the expansions
3) They've committed to long term support

Well, pretty much every FPSMMO on the market meets those criteria. I can't name a single FPSMMO I've played in the last few years (I've played a decent number) that wasn't free (in terms of sub and/or initial purchase, not MT costs) or wasn't promised to be supported for a long time. And as far as expansions go, it's simply a compression of content into larger packages that get released less often.

I wrote some true EVE stories! And no, they're not of the generic "my 0.0 alliance had lots of 0.0 fleets and took a lot of 0.0 space" sort. Check them out here:

https://truestories.eveonline.com/users/2074-destiny-corrupted

Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#36 - 2013-05-14 08:57:02 UTC
Destiny Corrupted wrote:
I don't know man, Planetside's pretty old. And like I said, we don't know what goes on behind closed scenes in the corporate world, but one of the things that stuck in business school was how everyone generally agreed that the moves happen before the public knows about them. It happens in-game too. Bought any ice within the past few years?

If you don't know, look it up.

Dust was teased in 2009; demoed on a xbox devkit in early 2011 and revealed as console-only at the same time; declined by Microsoft later in the year and turned PS3-only (which is not the asme as PS3-exclusive). Claiming that Sony somehow made it console exclusive before it even became PS3-only is rather silly.
floating in space
#37 - 2013-05-14 09:00:59 UTC
Malcanis wrote:

These are all "long term growth" enablers.


So in a year, when there are Dust Bunnies with ~30m SP or in 2 years with ~60m do you think the game will be more inviting or less inviting to new players?

That's one problem I see with it because an FPS isn't like EVE and from my understanding players are extremely sensitive to even the slightest perception of imbalance. There may not even be any significant imbalance but in a world where "HAXOR" is shouted incessantly it may be a very real perception.

I don't think this is the only reason you should avoid applying any EVE model to it.
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#38 - 2013-05-14 09:07:16 UTC
floating in space wrote:
So in a year, when there are Dust Bunnies with ~30m SP or in 2 years with ~60m do you think the game will be more inviting or less inviting to new players?
About the same, just like in EVE (and PS/PS2).
Destiny Corrupted
Deadly Viper Kitten Mitten Sewing Company
Senpai's Afterschool Anime and Gaming Club
#39 - 2013-05-14 09:08:44 UTC
Tippia wrote:
Destiny Corrupted wrote:
I don't know man, Planetside's pretty old. And like I said, we don't know what goes on behind closed scenes in the corporate world, but one of the things that stuck in business school was how everyone generally agreed that the moves happen before the public knows about them. It happens in-game too. Bought any ice within the past few years?

If you don't know, look it up.

Dust was teased in 2009; demoed on a xbox devkit in early 2011 and revealed as console-only at the same time; declined by Microsoft later in the year and turned PS3-only (which is not the asme as PS3-exclusive). Claiming that Sony somehow made it console exclusive before it even became PS3-only is rather silly.

Neither of us owns enough stock in either company to make any of our claims with a moderate degree of objectivity. You can call it snake oil, but to me, taking three years off each date would roughly approximate when the decisions were actually made. I doubt Microsoft turned anyone down, because CCP went into the bid process already knowing the outcome since you don't need to be a Wall Street insider to know about Microsoft's third party content development protocols.

Maybe in a year or two we can ask Daniel Loeb what really happened?

I wrote some true EVE stories! And no, they're not of the generic "my 0.0 alliance had lots of 0.0 fleets and took a lot of 0.0 space" sort. Check them out here:

https://truestories.eveonline.com/users/2074-destiny-corrupted

floating in space
#40 - 2013-05-14 09:15:11 UTC
Tippia wrote:
About the same, just like in EVE (and PS/PS2).


My point was an FPS is different than EVE, also PS1's cert system isn't really comparable.

As in, you can't apply a long-term growth model to an FPS, PS2 doesn't have a long term growth model (especially not compared to DUST's start with 2000 work your way up).