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Mineral / ICE prices and odyssey speculation

Author
Carton Mantory
Vindicate and Deliverance
#21 - 2013-05-02 14:11:31 UTC
ICE and byproducts will be depleted.
Logistics for null sec is based on the resources in ICE.
null sec will become its little high sec.

The cost of POS will go up.

Think about how many cap ships are on the market. This is how ICE will be. Why sell ICE to your enemies soo they can do logistics.

EVE is in for a shift. Null sec was suppose to be a community not a place for PVP. They will now allow for communities to live in null sec and grow. High sec will be only for the extreme rich as it should be.
Claire Voyant
#22 - 2013-05-02 16:28:18 UTC
YuuKnow wrote:
if the major null/low sec power bloc start actively incorporating large mining divisions with scheduled ICE ops into their alliances, then the Ice supply over the long term may actually increase rather than decrease.

What if they schedule their ice mining ops in hisec and deplete the high sec belts while ganking any other miners. That way they not only get ice for themselves, but they prevent their enemies from obtaining ice on the market at cheap prices. The thing that people don't see is that ice will become a strategic material that it never was before. It wouldn't really matter if hisec ice supplied 120% of demand, once you put a limit on it it becomes a whole new ball game.
Kithran
#23 - 2013-05-02 16:32:22 UTC
YuuKnow wrote:
Fozzie said something interesting on the GD.

https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=230660&p=4
Quote:
You're reading it wrong. Highsec will only spawn enough ice to meet 80% of the whole universe's demand. It will spawn roughly 800% of what it needs to meet Highsec's demand.

Quote:
Currently 98.4% of all isotope ice is mined in highsec.

While highsec uses less than 15% of the isotopes in EVE.


So right now 98.4% of all ice is mined in hisec with 85% of that ice ending up in LowSec, NullSec, and WH POSs. After the patch, roughly 80% (rather tan 98.4%) of ice will be mined in high sec.,

Am I right to think that the change only represents a 18% decrease in the amount of hi-sec supply. The major low-sec/null sec power blocks will need to mine approximately 20% more than pre-patch to meet the demand. So the prices change long term will likely not produce so much of a supply/demand mismatch.

That being said, if the major null/low sec power bloc start actively incorporating large mining divisions with scheduled ICE ops into their alliances, then the Ice supply over the long term may actually increase rather than decrease.

yk


Nope - you've missed one very important fact - high sec mining will meet 80% of needs if _every_ high sec anomaly is mined out as soon as it appears.

Information already given shows you need approx 25 miners to mine out an anomaly fast enough to keep up with that 80% figure.

Have a look at where the ice belts are, have a look how many people are in there now - while there are mining systems with lots more ice miners than that post Odyssey you will not be able to double output by doubling the number of miners in a system.
mynnna
State War Academy
Caldari State
#24 - 2013-05-02 17:19:32 UTC
YuuKnow wrote:
Fozzie said something interesting on the GD.

https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=230660&p=4
Quote:
You're reading it wrong. Highsec will only spawn enough ice to meet 80% of the whole universe's demand. It will spawn roughly 800% of what it needs to meet Highsec's demand.

Quote:
Currently 98.4% of all isotope ice is mined in highsec.

While highsec uses less than 15% of the isotopes in EVE.


So right now 98.4% of all ice is mined in hisec with 85% of that ice ending up in LowSec, NullSec, and WH POSs. After the patch, roughly 80% (rather tan 98.4%) of ice will be mined in high sec.,

Am I right to think that the change only represents a 18% decrease in the amount of hi-sec supply. The major low-sec/null sec power blocks will need to mine approximately 20% more than pre-patch to meet the demand. So the prices change long term will likely not produce so much of a supply/demand mismatch.

That being said, if the major null/low sec power bloc start actively incorporating large mining divisions with scheduled ICE ops into their alliances, then the Ice supply over the long term may actually increase rather than decrease.

yk


A subtle point.

Right now 98.4% of ALL ICE is mined in highsec, with no word as to actual demand for the resulting products.

Post-patch, a maximum of 80% of DEMAND will be supplied by highsec.

Keep in mind that in another thread, Fozzie said that the supply of ice right now is so high as to be effectively infinite, though to be fair it wasn't clear if he meant the available supply or the mined supply. Still, "98.4% of all ice mined" and "80% of supply met" are not comparing equivalent numbers.

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal

YuuKnow
The Scope
#25 - 2013-05-03 01:13:46 UTC  |  Edited by: YuuKnow
Claire Voyant wrote:
YuuKnow wrote:
if the major null/low sec power bloc start actively incorporating large mining divisions with scheduled ICE ops into their alliances, then the Ice supply over the long term may actually increase rather than decrease.

What if they schedule their ice mining ops in hisec and deplete the high sec belts while ganking any other miners. That way they not only get ice for themselves, but they prevent their enemies from obtaining ice on the market at cheap prices. The thing that people don't see is that ice will become a strategic material that it never was before. It wouldn't really matter if hisec ice supplied 120% of demand, once you put a limit on it it becomes a whole new ball game.


Not something that can be predicted IMHO. But that type of economic warfare in the the game-verse would make the economics of Eve more dynamic. Competition over resource control is an important catalyst for conflict is probably what is intended and welcome.

Thought that kindof stuff can happen now. Doesn't need to wait for the patch.

yk
Traedar
InterStellar Trading Syndicate
#26 - 2013-05-03 01:23:35 UTC
mynnna wrote:
YuuKnow wrote:
Fozzie said something interesting on the GD.

https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=230660&p=4
Quote:
You're reading it wrong. Highsec will only spawn enough ice to meet 80% of the whole universe's demand. It will spawn roughly 800% of what it needs to meet Highsec's demand.

Quote:
Currently 98.4% of all isotope ice is mined in highsec.

While highsec uses less than 15% of the isotopes in EVE.


So right now 98.4% of all ice is mined in hisec with 85% of that ice ending up in LowSec, NullSec, and WH POSs. After the patch, roughly 80% (rather tan 98.4%) of ice will be mined in high sec.,

Am I right to think that the change only represents a 18% decrease in the amount of hi-sec supply. The major low-sec/null sec power blocks will need to mine approximately 20% more than pre-patch to meet the demand. So the prices change long term will likely not produce so much of a supply/demand mismatch.

That being said, if the major null/low sec power bloc start actively incorporating large mining divisions with scheduled ICE ops into their alliances, then the Ice supply over the long term may actually increase rather than decrease.

yk


A subtle point.

Right now 98.4% of ALL ICE is mined in highsec, with no word as to actual demand for the resulting products.

Post-patch, a maximum of 80% of DEMAND will be supplied by highsec.

Keep in mind that in another thread, Fozzie said that the supply of ice right now is so high as to be effectively infinite, though to be fair it wasn't clear if he meant the available supply or the mined supply. Still, "98.4% of all ice mined" and "80% of supply met" are not comparing equivalent numbers.


No, the non-high sec folks currently mine 1.4% of Isotopes in Eve. After patch they will need to mine 20% of Isotopes in Eve. This means they will need to mine over 10x more Isotopes than they currently do.

I'm pretty sure CCP Fozzie has based these numbers on the high sec hidden ice belts being mined 5x per day. Yet they respawn 4 hours after being depleted. So I wonder if some will be cleared more than 5x per day, meaning high sec could supply more than 80% of Isotopes.

Felicity Love
Doomheim
#27 - 2013-05-03 01:55:07 UTC
Traedar wrote:

I'm pretty sure CCP Fozzie has based these numbers on the high sec hidden ice belts being mined 5x per day. Yet they respawn 4 hours after being depleted. So I wonder if some will be cleared more than 5x per day, meaning high sec could supply more than 80% of Isotopes.



That 80% assumes all available ice reaches the market. EVE is not that predictable.

It's entirely possible that many "vested interests" will go to whatever means necessary to make sure ice doesn't respawn.

"EVE is dying." -- The Four Forum Trolls of the Apocalypse.   ( Pick four, any four. They all smell.  )

mynnna
State War Academy
Caldari State
#28 - 2013-05-03 02:14:35 UTC
Traedar wrote:
mynnna wrote:
YuuKnow wrote:
Fozzie said something interesting on the GD.

https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=230660&p=4
Quote:
You're reading it wrong. Highsec will only spawn enough ice to meet 80% of the whole universe's demand. It will spawn roughly 800% of what it needs to meet Highsec's demand.

Quote:
Currently 98.4% of all isotope ice is mined in highsec.

While highsec uses less than 15% of the isotopes in EVE.


So right now 98.4% of all ice is mined in hisec with 85% of that ice ending up in LowSec, NullSec, and WH POSs. After the patch, roughly 80% (rather tan 98.4%) of ice will be mined in high sec.,

Am I right to think that the change only represents a 18% decrease in the amount of hi-sec supply. The major low-sec/null sec power blocks will need to mine approximately 20% more than pre-patch to meet the demand. So the prices change long term will likely not produce so much of a supply/demand mismatch.

That being said, if the major null/low sec power bloc start actively incorporating large mining divisions with scheduled ICE ops into their alliances, then the Ice supply over the long term may actually increase rather than decrease.

yk


A subtle point.

Right now 98.4% of ALL ICE is mined in highsec, with no word as to actual demand for the resulting products.

Post-patch, a maximum of 80% of DEMAND will be supplied by highsec.

Keep in mind that in another thread, Fozzie said that the supply of ice right now is so high as to be effectively infinite, though to be fair it wasn't clear if he meant the available supply or the mined supply. Still, "98.4% of all ice mined" and "80% of supply met" are not comparing equivalent numbers.


No, the non-high sec folks currently mine 1.4% of Isotopes in Eve. After patch they will need to mine 20% of Isotopes in Eve. This means they will need to mine over 10x more Isotopes than they currently do.

I'm pretty sure CCP Fozzie has based these numbers on the high sec hidden ice belts being mined 5x per day. Yet they respawn 4 hours after being depleted. So I wonder if some will be cleared more than 5x per day, meaning high sec could supply more than 80% of Isotopes.



What I'm saying is that it's a minimum of a 15x increase, since "80% of the demand" is not directly comparable to "98.4% of everything that is mined". "Everything that is mined" may in fact exceed supply by a great deal on its own, which Fozzie hinted at - that's what I think the "supply is so large as to be effectively infinite" comment he posted elsewhere meant. You can draw real world evidence for this from the ice interdiction, incidentally. Despite cutting off the vast majority of supply for gallente ice, it took a long time for prices to get up to their highest levels, because there were plentiful stockpiles that people were happy to sell.

As to getting a sixth spawn, it is mathematically possible if you mine every spawn in 48 minutes or less - realistically, more like 40 minutes or less to leave time to mine the sixth one. However, the absolute minimum pilot count to mine a site that quickly is 56 - one fully skilled orca pilot with mindlinks, plus 55 fully skilled hulk pilots with 5% mining implants. Every single site across Empire being mined out in full six times a day this way would thus require a minimum of 5432 pilots on each and every time the belts respawned.

I doubt there are that many highsec miners in the game, especially when you start to factor in things like "time zones". Blink So while I've no doubt that some systems will get six spawns a day (probably mostly Caldari systems that will owe it to their proximity to Jita) I'm also fairly confident many systems will be neglected, and things will average out.

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal

YuuKnow
The Scope
#29 - 2013-05-03 02:53:59 UTC  |  Edited by: YuuKnow
mynnna wrote:
As to getting a sixth spawn, it is mathematically possible if you mine every spawn in 48 minutes or less - realistically, more like 40 minutes or less to leave time to mine the sixth one. However, the absolute minimum pilot count to mine a site that quickly is 56 - one fully skilled orca pilot with mindlinks, plus 55 fully skilled hulk pilots with 5% mining implants. Every single site across Empire being mined out in full six times a day this way would thus require a minimum of 5432 pilots on each and every time the belts respawned.


That sounds like a challenge worthy of the Goons. Get to it!Smile

yk
Claire Voyant
#30 - 2013-05-03 14:15:13 UTC
YuuKnow wrote:
Claire Voyant wrote:
YuuKnow wrote:
if the major null/low sec power bloc start actively incorporating large mining divisions with scheduled ICE ops into their alliances, then the Ice supply over the long term may actually increase rather than decrease.

What if they schedule their ice mining ops in hisec and deplete the high sec belts while ganking any other miners. That way they not only get ice for themselves, but they prevent their enemies from obtaining ice on the market at cheap prices. The thing that people don't see is that ice will become a strategic material that it never was before. It wouldn't really matter if hisec ice supplied 120% of demand, once you put a limit on it it becomes a whole new ball game.

Not something that can be predicted IMHO. But that type of economic warfare in the the game-verse would make the economics of Eve more dynamic. Competition over resource control is an important catalyst for conflict is probably what is intended and welcome.

Thought that kindof stuff can happen now. Doesn't need to wait for the patch.

It didn't wait for the patch. Do you remember the ice interdiction? I think it can be predicted. Whether it works or not is another thing. You should really check out mynnna's new and improved politically correct and slightly less overtly anti-semitic signature sometime. (If you want to be a space politician nowadays you gotta clean up your act, right?)
mynnna
State War Academy
Caldari State
#31 - 2013-05-03 14:31:03 UTC
I don't think my sig was politically incorrect or anti-semetic before What?

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal

Claire Voyant
#32 - 2013-05-03 14:51:26 UTC  |  Edited by: Claire Voyant
mynnna wrote:
I don't think my sig was politically incorrect or anti-semetic before What?

I don't think I ever said it was. I said it was new and improved. And "cabal" is also politically correct and slightly less overtly ant-semetic than "Jewbal" but I'm sorry if anyone got the impression that your signature was ever anti-semetic.

Edit: Just to be clear, my snark got in the way of my message. I was trying to give you a thumbs up for the new and improved "Economic Warfare" emphasis while objecting to the use of the otherwise perfectly fine (but given the recent history probably still a bit too loaded) word "cabal". Anyhow, whatever.
Smohq Anmirorz
State War Academy
Caldari State
#33 - 2013-05-06 09:43:31 UTC
mynnna wrote:
YuuKnow wrote:
Fozzie said something interesting on the GD.

https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=230660&p=4
Quote:
You're reading it wrong. Highsec will only spawn enough ice to meet 80% of the whole universe's demand. It will spawn roughly 800% of what it needs to meet Highsec's demand.

Quote:
Currently 98.4% of all isotope ice is mined in highsec.

While highsec uses less than 15% of the isotopes in EVE.


So right now 98.4% of all ice is mined in hisec with 85% of that ice ending up in LowSec, NullSec, and WH POSs. After the patch, roughly 80% (rather tan 98.4%) of ice will be mined in high sec.,

Am I right to think that the change only represents a 18% decrease in the amount of hi-sec supply. The major low-sec/null sec power blocks will need to mine approximately 20% more than pre-patch to meet the demand. So the prices change long term will likely not produce so much of a supply/demand mismatch.

That being said, if the major null/low sec power bloc start actively incorporating large mining divisions with scheduled ICE ops into their alliances, then the Ice supply over the long term may actually increase rather than decrease.

yk


A subtle point.

Right now 98.4% of ALL ICE is mined in highsec, with no word as to actual demand for the resulting products.

Post-patch, a maximum of 80% of DEMAND will be supplied by highsec.

Keep in mind that in another thread, Fozzie said that the supply of ice right now is so high as to be effectively infinite, though to be fair it wasn't clear if he meant the available supply or the mined supply. Still, "98.4% of all ice mined" and "80% of supply met" are not comparing equivalent numbers.


The only thing that makes them not equivalent is people stockpiling or getting rid of stockpiles. Other than that, they are equivalent. In other words, the ice that is mined gets used at roughly the same rate.
Smohq Anmirorz
State War Academy
Caldari State
#34 - 2013-05-07 04:33:08 UTC
DarthNefarius wrote:
Ardaeik Marconea wrote:
The ice belts are starting to fill up already. The minerals buy should pay off soon


YEPPERZ ICE belts are definitely begining to get get crowded! So crowded you may want to look into purchasing the ORE Faction ICE harvestors I put up for sale in Jita that increase your range & make bumping that much more difficult!

Also once Odyssy hits & ICE starts depleteing faster then an ice cube in hell these ORE Faction harvetors will give you an edge in fast draining the next ICE slab thats just out of reach to the poor noobs that don't have the boosted range you'll have!


All I see here is "buy my gank magnets"
Joan Greywind
The Lazy Crabs
#35 - 2013-05-07 09:26:05 UTC
I would just like to point out that ice in high sec will cover 80% of "current" demand. But as ice prices increase the demand will decrease (basic demand supply curve), so at the end we might see that high sec ice minning will be sufficient to cover the new demand (at higher prices of course). The question we have to ask , is it going to rise high enough to make nullsec ice minning worth it?


(the correct answer is, it is never worth it to mine ice)



Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#36 - 2013-05-08 19:23:50 UTC
Joan Greywind wrote:
The question we have to ask , is it going to rise high enough to make nullsec ice minning worth it?


(the correct answer is, it is never worth it to mine ice)





That's what I have told in another thread, but they won't believe me.
Rhivre
TarNec
Invisible Exchequer
#37 - 2013-05-08 20:12:32 UTC
Joan Greywind wrote:
I would just like to point out that ice in high sec will cover 80% of "current" demand. But as ice prices increase the demand will decrease (basic demand supply curve), so at the end we might see that high sec ice minning will be sufficient to cover the new demand (at higher prices of course). The question we have to ask , is it going to rise high enough to make nullsec ice minning worth it?


(the correct answer is, it is never worth it to mine ice)






If High sec can cover 80% of current demand, and null sec currently uses 85%, while producing 2%, do I think ice mining will increase in null?

If all 97 belts are mined out 5* a day (Yes, including the ones in pockets), and high sec removes all use of ice related products, then null only needs to increase from 2-5%

*shrugs*

I dont see what price has to do with it.
Felicity Love
Doomheim
#38 - 2013-05-08 20:33:58 UTC
The fun part is that CCP wants ice to be a "conflict driver". If 80% doesn't encourage any nastiness, then those spawning ice field anomalies might spawn less and less frequently until CCP is happy with the results.

Sure, stockpiles will make up the difference and buffer the market demand for awhile -- but all good things must come to an end. Cry

"EVE is dying." -- The Four Forum Trolls of the Apocalypse.   ( Pick four, any four. They all smell.  )

DarthNefarius
Minmatar Heavy Industries
#39 - 2013-05-08 21:16:36 UTC
mynnna wrote:
I don't think my sig was politically incorrect or anti-semetic before What?


Then Next time try Harder P I do believe my sig is anti-fowl and am proud of it
An' then Chicken@little.com, he come scramblin outta the    Terminal room screaming "The system's crashing! The system's    crashing!" -Uncle RAMus, 'Tales for Cyberpsychotic Children'
DarthNefarius
Minmatar Heavy Industries
#40 - 2013-05-08 21:19:43 UTC  |  Edited by: DarthNefarius
Fozie wrote:

Nullsec with weak truesec (0.0 to -0.5):
3000 units of improved racial ice
400 units of Glare Crust
500 units of Dark Glitter
200 units of Gelidus

Nullsec with strong truesec (-0.5 to -1.0):
3500 units of improved racial ice
400 units of Glare Crust
1000 units of Dark Glitter
300 units of Gelidus
250 units of Krystallos





Do current NULL SEC ice fields produce racial ices randomly or does an entire region just produce a single racial ice? (ie all DELVE has only Caldari racial ice )
An' then Chicken@little.com, he come scramblin outta the    Terminal room screaming "The system's crashing! The system's    crashing!" -Uncle RAMus, 'Tales for Cyberpsychotic Children'
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