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Odyssey: Death of Jita?
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stoicfaux
#1 - 2013-04-28 19:37:19 UTC
Come Odyssey,
* null will be getting low-end minerals
* high-sec will only be able to provide 80% of the needed ice supply, and
* outputs will be getting more installations,

Does this mean that Jita (and other trade hubs) will suffer a significant reduction in trade/market/supply? Will trade hubs migrate closer to high-sec systems that are closer to null/low manufacturing? Will trade hubs (for high-sec customers) migrate to null-sec? Is high-sec still too convenient in terms of installations, distances, and customers for heavy null-sec industry to take off?

I'm beginning to wonder if Odyssey is going to be the most disruptive expansion ever in Eve's history.

Pon Farr Memorial: once every 7 years, all the carebears in high-sec must PvP or they will be temp-banned.
Daniel Plain
Doomheim
#2 - 2013-04-28 20:31:34 UTC
surely you're joking...?

I should buy an Ishtar.
RubyPorto
RubysRhymes
#3 - 2013-04-28 20:39:06 UTC
Jita is pretty close to a lot of Null/Low.

So long as there are regional moon minerals, there will be a place to trade them.

Jita isn't really a manufacturing hub (though it's nice to run the occasional job in Jita when there's a slot open). If manufacturing slots caused hub-ness, Itamo with it's 550 manufacturing slots would be a lot more hub-y than it is now.

I imagine most of the slots in Null will be used for producing T1 ship hulls.

"It's easy to speak for the silent majority. They rarely object to what you put into their mouths." -Abrazzar "the risk of having your day ruined by other people is the cornerstone with which EVE was built" -CCP Solomon
Dave Stark
#4 - 2013-04-28 20:49:07 UTC
RubyPorto wrote:
I imagine most of the slots in Null will be used for producing T1 ship hulls.


when you consider how many ships worth of modules you can fit in a freighter, then it does make sense to use null's production slots for ships.
YuuKnow
The Scope
#5 - 2013-04-28 21:27:02 UTC
stoicfaux wrote:
Does this mean that Jita (and other trade hubs) will suffer a significant reduction in trade/market/supply? Will trade hubs migrate closer to high-sec systems that are closer to null/low manufacturing? Will trade hubs (for high-sec customers) migrate to null-sec? Is high-sec still too convenient in terms of installations, distances, and customers for heavy null-sec industry to take off?


No.

yk
mynnna
State War Academy
Caldari State
#6 - 2013-04-28 22:01:47 UTC
No.

Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal
Rhivre
TarNec
Invisible Exchequer
#7 - 2013-04-28 23:52:26 UTC
mynnna wrote:
No.

Fluffy Bunny Pic!

stoicfaux
#8 - 2013-04-29 00:02:40 UTC
Daniel Plain wrote:
surely you're joking...?

Excellent points! You're probably right in that there's little reason for null-sec to change their existing logistics (which work just fine.) Plus, as you stated, by continuing to rely on high-sec manufacturing and mining, there's no reason to go through the effort (and security risk) of recruiting industrial/mining corps into null.

To which I have to ask, could the randomization of the moons (i.e. loss of the tech cartel) eventually require null sec to build up their industrial capacity instead of relying on a potentially more expensive high-sec? Or would the moon randomization plus alchemy simply mean that no one can manipulate prices to such a large degree anymore, which means that null-sec turns into a safe cash cow (i.e. folks are discouraged from investing the isk and time necessary to build out null industry?)

Pon Farr Memorial: once every 7 years, all the carebears in high-sec must PvP or they will be temp-banned.
Friggz
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#9 - 2013-04-29 00:26:17 UTC  |  Edited by: Friggz
Daniel Plain wrote:
surely you're joking...?


I am serious. And don't call me Shirley.
Nitrogen Isotopes
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#10 - 2013-04-29 01:40:47 UTC  |  Edited by: Nitrogen Isotopes
stoicfaux wrote:
would the moon randomization...


CCP isn't randomizing current moon goo locations.

Edit: I can't tell if you've misread the upcoming changes or if you're just posing a hypothetical.
stoicfaux
#11 - 2013-04-29 04:15:19 UTC
Nitrogen Isotopes wrote:
stoicfaux wrote:
would the moon randomization...


CCP isn't randomizing current moon goo locations.

Edit: I can't tell if you've misread the upcoming changes or if you're just posing a hypothetical.

Bad word choice on my part. "Randomizing" just means breaking the tech monopoly by shaking up moon mining a bit as per the blog.

Pon Farr Memorial: once every 7 years, all the carebears in high-sec must PvP or they will be temp-banned.
Kara Books
Deal with IT.
#12 - 2013-04-29 05:12:19 UTC
Jaw dropped after seeing: Ore Composition
Secret Squirrell
Allied Press Intergalactic
#13 - 2013-04-29 14:10:54 UTC
stoicfaux wrote:
Daniel Plain wrote:
surely you're joking...?

Excellent points! You're probably right in that there's little reason for null-sec to change their existing logistics (which work just fine.) Plus, as you stated, by continuing to rely on high-sec manufacturing and mining, there's no reason to go through the effort (and security risk) of recruiting industrial/mining corps into null.

To which I have to ask, could the randomization of the moons (i.e. loss of the tech cartel) eventually require null sec to build up their industrial capacity instead of relying on a potentially more expensive high-sec? Or would the moon randomization plus alchemy simply mean that no one can manipulate prices to such a large degree anymore, which means that null-sec turns into a safe cash cow (i.e. folks are discouraged from investing the isk and time necessary to build out null industry?)


Again, No.

T2 modules have a high enough Isk/m^3 ratio that it would take a increase in fuel prices of at least an order of magnitude (5k-10k/per tope), probably more, before it would create much incentive to move production. At current fuel prices, even T1 ship production starting up is uncertain, though sounds pretty likely.
Rakshasa Taisab
Sane Industries Inc.
#14 - 2013-04-29 20:18:33 UTC
Move this to "EVE New Citizens Q&A".

Nyan
Krax As
Garoun Investment Bank
Gallente Federation
#15 - 2013-04-30 14:07:05 UTC
the changes are not drastic enough to warrant any significant change in industrial setups.

simply not enough slots to build (since you can have only one outpost per system)
also, as long as larger null-entities dont give a frak about really helping / protecting pure industrials / miners to really benefit from the now plenty low -tier minerals and start viewing industrialists as real assets rather than necessary evils, nothing will change.

also, new moon mats are to be seeded all over the place. which probably means that as long as you currently hold enough space, by pure chance you will end up with plenty of those new stuff to not severely be hampered.

same with ice as null sec entities will have plenty of ice systems to mine out all on their own.

also, with current transport meachanics for freight and fleets, nothing really prevents large entities to just capture and hold strategically important systems all over the place. i mean they move fleets with thousands of subcaps etc all oer the goddamm map.
Julius Rigel
#16 - 2013-04-30 14:18:13 UTC
stoicfaux wrote:
Does this mean that Jita (and other trade hubs) will suffer a significant reduction in trade/market/supply?
I'm entirely clueless when it comes to economics, but even I can't possibly imagine how you could possibly imagine this would happen.

Do YOU like to undock?
March rabbit
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#17 - 2013-04-30 14:22:44 UTC
stoicfaux wrote:
Come Odyssey,
* null will be getting low-end minerals
* high-sec will only be able to provide 80% of the needed ice supply, and
* outputs will be getting more installations,

Does this mean that Jita (and other trade hubs) will suffer a significant reduction in trade/market/supply? Will trade hubs migrate closer to high-sec systems that are closer to null/low manufacturing? Will trade hubs (for high-sec customers) migrate to null-sec? Is high-sec still too convenient in terms of installations, distances, and customers for heavy null-sec industry to take off?

the first question is: does 0.0 space NEED all these minerals and industry?
- yes, it needs - then Jita will see some reducing of trading
- no, it doesn't need - then Jita won't notice any difference

Is there any big wars ongoing now or can happen in nearest future? What all these 0.0 seccers will use their ships for? Looking at PvP activity posted not long ago it's not than 0.0 regions are in heavy need of ship reimbursement.



The Mittani: "the inappropriate drunked joke"
Felicity Love
Doomheim
#18 - 2013-04-30 16:38:34 UTC
Jita will survive and thrive as always -- because pilots love their one-stop "mall" experience when pissing away ISK Blink

"EVE is dying." -- The Four Forum Trolls of the Apocalypse.   ( Pick four, any four. They all smell.  )
Kojee
Safety Set To Red
Train Wreck.
#19 - 2013-04-30 16:44:55 UTC
Felicity Love wrote:
Jita will survive and thrive as always -- because pilots love their one-stop "mall" experience when pissing away ISK Blink



Jita was the market hub even before they got rid of the highway stargates between the regions. I think people are so used to the "mall" of Jita that there's no chance it'll go away, unless it magically became a lowsec system (like Yulai????)
Secret Squirrell
Allied Press Intergalactic
#20 - 2013-04-30 16:53:19 UTC
Felicity Love wrote:
Jita will survive and thrive as always -- because pilots love their one-stop "mall" experience when pissing away ISK Blink



When purchasing equipment for use, rather then investment/trading, Jita is the almost always the best choice, and its hardly pissing away isk. I don't want to spend 10 hours flying around all of highsec getting the best deals to save 10 mil on a 200mil ship+fittings. The other hubs are rarely priced better then Jita. And if I'm going to be using the ship, I don't want to wait a week for someone to fill a buy order outside the hubs, or need to sit there babysitting a buy order to guard against 0.01 iskers. Thus I go to Jita, and hit the sell orders, and its the smart move. Unless Jita starts to carry a substantial price premium relative to other sources, it will remain the smart move to buy stuff there.
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