EVE General Discussion

TLDR:
High sec minerals (tirt, pyrite,mex) stay reasonably flat, while null minerlas (Morph, Mega, Zyd, Noc) get CRUSHED in price!

"What?", you say. It is the exact opposite. It is low end ores that are being added to null rocks, increasing supply, and crushing price.

WRONG!


Long version:
Miners make decisions on where to mine based on profitability. Post Dominion, when the hard cap in null rocks was lifted as miners could clear a grav site cluster for insta-respawn, miners moved to null until the price of null rocks reached equilibrium with high sec rocks.

At current mineral prices, null rocks would again be more profitable than high sec, prompting miners to move to null again. So, let's assume that miners will move.

Pre-Odyssey, null miners ship out jump freighter loads of null minerals while shipping in freighter loads of high sec minerals. It takes an entire freighter load of trit to build a capital, and 10 freighter loads of trit to build a super. Right now, null miners have no choice but to import these freighter loads of minerals (even if in compressed form) because there is just not a sufficient source for that much trit local to null.

FOr example, the small cluster has the best tirt, at 2.9 million units. But, no one wants to spend 24 man hours mining out the crud spod to recycle this belt, so they only get that trit from that cluster every 3-4 days.

Post Odyssey, null miners WILL have an option for that trit in null. For example, that same small cluster as above, will net a whopping 92.6 million tirt.


See, the high sec minienr may say.... there goes all our null sec customers, so we'll get crushed on price.

Well, let's look at the math a tad closer.
82 million of the 90 million increase is coming from the Spod.

BUT... 71,000 trit per batch/4000 m3 per batch = 17.75 trit per m3.

Compare to veld's 1000 trit per batch/33.3 m3 per batch = 30.03 trit per m3.


So, each miner that moves to null to get at the more profitable rocks there, will actually be mining, at most, HALF the m3 trit they would have been mining veld in high sec.

And, what is the unwanted byproduct of all that extra spod mining in null to get at the tirt? 156K megacyte, that used to go unmined.

The bist and croc also used to get left behind much of the time. And the mexalon too. More high end ores that will get mined to get at the low ends they contain, dumping even more high end minerals into the market.



So, miners move to null as null gains local access to low ends. Null mining of low ends actually reduces the trit per man hour, but increases the high end ore production.

Now, we have to consider the ration of current high sec miners to low, and what a move of some miners will do to the production numners. Let's say 75% of miners are currentlty in high sec. Let's say 10% of those leave high sec. That 10% drop in high sec miniers would then equate to a 30% increase in the number of null sec miners. I think that is a VERY low guess.

If we're told that 85% of toons are in high sec (is that the right number), and we assume the ratio for miners is even higher that that... say 90%... then 10% of high sec miniers moving to null would basically DOUBLE the number of null sec miners.

And what would the result of something like that be? Right... a slight drop in the amount of ore being mined in high sec, and a doubling of the amount of ore mined in null! Now, much of that new ore will be low ends, but not enough to replace the loss from high sec mining, AND, we're still gonna get a lot of megacyte thrown off from all that spod mining that will be happening.


I stand by my prediction. Stable high sec mineral prices, CRASHING null sec mineral prices.

My question then becomes, what happens to the mid-range rocks. Will they go up in price as the null miners switch from them to spod/bist/croc? Will they be cought up in the down draft of more corc, dark, gnesis mining?



The other argument for falling high end ore prices and stable high sec ore prices is... that is what will be required to restore equalibrium. If high sec minerals fall, as some are predicting, the pull of null grows stronger and stronger until players are pulled to null.

On the other hand, if high sec ores stay stable, while high ends fall, we'll move back toward equalibrium point where new people stop moving to null as it is no more profitable than high sec.



The only way to ensure null sec would forever be more profitable than high would have been to make the null rocks give MORE low end minerals per m3 than null ores give. This, of course, is not even close to what CCP has done.

Therefore, we will return to price equalabrium as high sec mineral prices remain fairly stable and null sec mineral prices are crushed.

High end minerals are going to sky rocket since null no longer will be bringing them during their runs for low end minerals.

Increasing the amount of low end ores in null is probably one of the biggest blunders CCP has ever made. Ever.

Market Speculation:

--> Market Discussions

2012 called... it wants its failed metagaming attempt back.

I believe it is 2013 and James 315 is still at it.... get with the times please

You will probably see a initial spike in lowends with a impending crash once people get use to the new system. Highends will probably stay consistent if not see a slight increase. Ice will be the real interesting bit, as it will probably rise consistently or spike like crazy.

Ofc improving lowend capabilities in Null won't make much of a difference, not until they expand/improve the manufacturing possibilities in null.

It pushes more wealth from high sec to null. Null does not need any boost to its ability to create isk. You already have rampant bots all over power block sov space that mine 23/7, and farm rats. Then you have upgraded systems that increase this ability, as well as the ridiculously large amount of near passive isk produced by moons.


Null sec is also safer than high sec for 90% of alliances living in it. Nothing scary about owning a system and having everything in the next 75 jumps out blued up.