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Hulk Invention Nerfed ???
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Mistah Ewedynao
Ice Axe Psycho Killers
#1 - 2013-04-01 14:57:34 UTC
Have made four (4) 10 copy max run invention tries since last expansion.

I have Gallente Starship, Mech Engineering and Hacking at level 5

I use +20% decryptors..Test reports

I am getting like 1 out of 10 BPC's where I was getting at least 3 out of 10 prior to expansion.

Yeah, yeah...random But it's not. Am seeing pretty much poorer results across the board but especially Hulks.

Stealth Invention nerf???

Nerf Goons

Nuke em from orbit....it's the only way to be sure.
Haulie Berry
#2 - 2013-04-01 15:14:14 UTC
Reported for trolling.
Krixtal Icefluxor
INLAND EMPIRE Galactic
#3 - 2013-04-01 15:27:32 UTC
It's random. It just happens sometimes.

"He has mounted his hind-legs, and blown crass vapidities through the bowel of his neck."  - Ambrose Bierce on Oscar Wilde's Lecture in San Francisco 1882
Mistah Ewedynao
Ice Axe Psycho Killers
#4 - 2013-04-01 21:30:36 UTC
Haulie Berry wrote:
Reported for trolling.


Wow.....who's trollin?

A completely honest observation, wiith the facts of how it happened.

3 month dry spell is NOT random.

Nerf Goons

Nuke em from orbit....it's the only way to be sure.
Derath Ellecon
University of Caille
Gallente Federation
#5 - 2013-04-01 21:45:50 UTC
Mistah Ewedynao wrote:
Haulie Berry wrote:
Reported for trolling.


Wow.....who's trollin?

A completely honest observation, wiith the facts of how it happened.

3 month dry spell is NOT random.


With facts that show your data pool is way too small to be able to make any useful conclusion.
Dave stark
#6 - 2013-04-01 21:50:40 UTC
Mistah Ewedynao wrote:
3 month dry spell is NOT random.


yes it is.
Haulie Berry
#7 - 2013-04-02 02:10:10 UTC  |  Edited by: Haulie Berry
Mistah Ewedynao wrote:
Haulie Berry wrote:
Reported for trolling.


Wow.....who's trollin?

A completely honest observation, wiith the facts of how it happened.

3 month dry spell is NOT random.


A completely honest observation about some statistically insignificant, anecdotal data.

Also, why are you using max run BPCs? IIRC they fixed the issue that caused you to lose a run when using a decryptor with a non-max-run BPC, and the natural max of a T2 ship BPC is 1, so you may as well just use a 1 run copy.

At any rate, you're calling it a "3 month dry spell" but if I'm reading your post correctly, you've done 4 batches of 10 invention jobs per batch, for a total of 40 attempts.

40 attempts is not statistically significant. You said you were getting a success rate of "about" 1 in 10.

For any given batch of 40 hulk invention attempts with perfect skills and using test reports, there is about a 2.2% chance of getting between 2 and 6 (inclusive) successes, which makes it a statistical certainty that this kind of dry spell will happen from time to time.
Steve Ronuken
Fuzzwork Enterprises
Vote Steve Ronuken for CSM
#8 - 2013-04-02 09:00:43 UTC
Welcome to the wonderful world of statistics.

It's not exactly intuitive. After all, each run you do has no effect on whether the next one will succeed or not.

You only have, at most, a 30.24% chance of success, per run. 4 successes out of 40 happens.

Woo! CSM XI!

Fuzzwork Enterprises

Twitter: @fuzzysteve on Twitter
Haulie Berry
#9 - 2013-04-02 16:14:51 UTC  |  Edited by: Haulie Berry
Steve Ronuken wrote:
Welcome to the wonderful world of statistics.

It's not exactly intuitive. After all, each run you do has no effect on whether the next one will succeed or not.

You only have, at most, a 30.24% chance of success, per run. 4 successes out of 40 happens.



You should even see a straight 0/40 at roughly a 5.5 in 10 million probability.

Understand, OP, that, on a micro scale (that is, your personal experience), probability might seem like a question of whether something does or does not happen.

On a macro scale, though, it's a given that it WILL happen - the probability is the statistical frequency with which it happens.

Someone's going to pull the short straw, occasionally it's going to be you.
Slumpert
Hookers and Quafe
#10 - 2013-04-04 19:46:48 UTC
Some dude out there has been getting 80% sucess rate since the same patch and he has been "Quiet" about it because he didn't want CCP to nerf him.
Kara Books
Deal with IT.
#11 - 2013-04-05 03:25:14 UTC
In reality, invention chances. is just a big ruse to get you to waste goods ingame.
FACT
Try to get that % chance as every one states, because you cant, because its a big lie.

there's no one, ever, who has gotten 80% success
FACT
Kara Books
Deal with IT.
#12 - 2013-04-05 03:26:16 UTC
Slumpert wrote:
Some dude out there has been getting 80% sucess rate since the same patch and he has been "Quiet" about it because he didn't want CCP to nerf him.


He told me 101% and my friend 65%, Im still trying to convince my friend he is telling the truth
Haulie Berry
#13 - 2013-04-05 15:40:57 UTC  |  Edited by: Haulie Berry
Kara Books wrote:
In reality, invention chances. is just a big ruse to get you to waste goods ingame.
FACT
Try to get that % chance as every one states, because you cant, because its a big lie.

there's no one, ever, who has gotten 80% success
FACT



Yeah... **** all that math and fancy booklearnin'. Just type "FACT" after everything in all caps and your ignorant bull **** shall magically become true!
FACT!
Mistah Ewedynao
Ice Axe Psycho Killers
#14 - 2013-04-06 15:29:35 UTC  |  Edited by: Mistah Ewedynao
Well I just got 1 out of 10, on Covetor BPC's, 1 run BPC's this time with +10% decryptors.

Do any of you "random experts" actually do exhumer invention??? I mean continually since the expansion?

That's is like 3 or 4 sucesses out of 50 tries, max relevant skills and all with 10% or 20% decryptors.

WAY WORSE than I was getting pre-expansion.

Nerf Goons

Nuke em from orbit....it's the only way to be sure.
Dave stark
#15 - 2013-04-06 15:47:51 UTC
Mistah Ewedynao wrote:
Do any of you "random experts" actually do exhumer invention???


no, but just because i flip a coin 10 times and get 7 heads doesn't mean it's not a 50% chance.
Beckie DeLey
Garoun Investment Bank
Gallente Federation
#16 - 2013-04-06 16:08:22 UTC
Dave Stark wrote:
Mistah Ewedynao wrote:
Do any of you "random experts" actually do exhumer invention???


no, but just because i flip a coin 10 times and get 7 heads doesn't mean it's not a 50% chance.


That coin needs to get nerfed. The risk/reward on it is completely out of whack.

My siren's name is Brick and she is the prettiest.
Haulie Berry
#17 - 2013-04-06 17:35:49 UTC  |  Edited by: Haulie Berry
Mistah Ewedynao wrote:
Well I just got 1 out of 10, on Covetor BPC's, 1 run BPC's this time with +10% decryptors.

Do any of you "random experts" actually do exhumer invention??? I mean continually since the expansion?

That's is like 3 or 4 sucesses out of 50 tries, max relevant skills and all with 10% or 20% decryptors.

WAY WORSE than I was getting pre-expansion.



Wow, a whole batch of 10!

1/10 across a single batch of 10 with perfect skills and +10% decryptors is an event you can expect to see about 11.8% of the time... just fyi.

Come talk to us when you average 1/10 over 10,000 attempts.
Mistah Ewedynao
Ice Axe Psycho Killers
#18 - 2013-04-06 20:32:55 UTC
Once again....I realize you random fans might just think a little differently than others. P

Has anyone else here been doing exhumer invention jobs pre and post expansion?

I have been doing over 30 exhumer invention jobs a month for aprroximately 15 months.

They suck now...and it ain't freakin random!

You do realize each type of ship/module has a different sucess factor/chance right? That could be stealth nerfed with a decimal change probably.

If you do not do exhumer invention YOU are the trolls not I.

Here's one somebody can answer I hope. Do T2 BPO's exist for Hulks and Mackinaws ??

Nerf Goons

Nuke em from orbit....it's the only way to be sure.
Dave stark
#19 - 2013-04-06 20:34:37 UTC
Mistah Ewedynao wrote:
and it ain't freakin random!


due to your lack of evidence for this claim; it is random.
hellcane
Never Back Down
#20 - 2013-04-07 00:11:17 UTC
While you are randomly getting 10% on a small sample, some guy could get 100%. The difference is the happy guy won't come and ***** on the forums, so all you see are the people that are upset because they are having bad luck.

As someone said before, assuming a balanced coin, if you get 5 heads out of 5 flips, that doesn't mean you have a 100% chance to flip a head.
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