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Can't seem to find a way to make certain T2 inventions profitable, BPO issue or something else?

Author
Quintessen
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#1 - 2013-02-08 15:11:21 UTC
Basically I've been running a lot of numbers recently and for a lot of T2 ships I can't make them profitable. Is this the famous, "we can't compete with BPOs" or is this more likely the result of unstable T2 production lines?

Basically even with maxed skills, and putting out buy orders on components as cheaply as I can that will actually get filled, I can't seem to make any money on a great many T2 ships. I just wanted to know if I'm missing something in my calculations.

Prices are coming from Rens, using EveHQ Prism to calculate required quantities.

Please help this newbie industrialist.
Thur Barbek
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
#2 - 2013-02-08 15:32:49 UTC
Some of the lesser used t2 ships have their markets controlled by the BPO holders. The majority of t2 ships and probably 98% of t2 items should be profitable with 1/2 decent skills though.

Ships also tend to be made by people with max or near max invention skills. Modules you can easily get away with 3/3/3. This makes ship margins a bit smaller.

Also, a large portion of ship invention uses DECRYPTORS... I highly suspect you are not using these. This would cause the ME levels to be -4 instead of a possible -2 or -1... which destroys the profitability.

List of random ships that are profitable to invent:
bombers
interceptors (low margins.)
Electronic attack ships (low margins)
Most assault ships
Mauraders
Black ops
Hics / Hacs
ect.
Mia Restolo
Royal Amarr Institute
Amarr Empire
#3 - 2013-02-08 16:26:10 UTC
Also look at the price histories of the components to spot recent market manipulation. Your new builds could be competing with pre-manipulation pricing on components containing neodymium for example.
shar'ra matcevsovski
Doomheim
#4 - 2013-02-08 16:33:42 UTC  |  Edited by: shar'ra matcevsovski
Quintessen wrote:
Is this the famous, "we can't compete with BPOs"


its more the famous "cant do own research thing" thing

blindly producing random ships without doing research does and shouldn not work . btw its not just the BPO´s that are compeeting with you, its also and for the most part other invetors

just a few examples wich you apparently missed to check:
http://eveeye.com/?blueprint=Jaguar+Blueprint&ML=-4&PL=-4&F60=1&I=1&e=4&c1=4&c2=4&d=100
http://eveeye.com/?blueprint=Mackinaw+Blueprint&ML=-4&PL=-4&F60=1&I=1&e=4&c1=4&c2=4&d=100
http://eveeye.com/?blueprint=Sleipnir+Blueprint&ML=-4&PL=-4&I=1&e=4&c1=4&c2=4&d=100
http://eveeye.com/?blueprint=huginn&ML=-4&PL=-4&F60=1&I=1&e=4&c1=4&c2=4&d=100

shar'ra phone home

Quintessen
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#5 - 2013-02-08 16:43:54 UTC
Thur Barbek wrote:
Some of the lesser used t2 ships have their markets controlled by the BPO holders. The majority of t2 ships and probably 98% of t2 items should be profitable with 1/2 decent skills though.

Ships also tend to be made by people with max or near max invention skills. Modules you can easily get away with 3/3/3. This makes ship margins a bit smaller.

Also, a large portion of ship invention uses DECRYPTORS... I highly suspect you are not using these. This would cause the ME levels to be -4 instead of a possible -2 or -1... which destroys the profitability.


My calculations included decryptors.
Zifrian
The Frog Pond
Ribbit.
#6 - 2013-02-08 17:51:58 UTC
Supply and demand really. Some ships are bought, used for several months then sold. Others are destroyed every day.

I get by fine with level 4 skills. Just have to pick the right items and be flexible to market changes.

Maximze your Industry Potential! - Download EVE Isk per Hour!

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Quintessen
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#7 - 2013-02-08 18:16:01 UTC
shar'ra matcevsovski wrote:
Quintessen wrote:
Is this the famous, "we can't compete with BPOs"


its more the famous "cant do own research thing" thing

blindly producing random ships without doing research does and shouldn not work . btw its not just the BPO´s that are compeeting with you, its also and for the most part other invetors

just a few examples wich you apparently missed to check:
http://eveeye.com/?blueprint=Jaguar+Blueprint&ML=-4&PL=-4&F60=1&I=1&e=4&c1=4&c2=4&d=100
http://eveeye.com/?blueprint=Mackinaw+Blueprint&ML=-4&PL=-4&F60=1&I=1&e=4&c1=4&c2=4&d=100
http://eveeye.com/?blueprint=Sleipnir+Blueprint&ML=-4&PL=-4&I=1&e=4&c1=4&c2=4&d=100
http://eveeye.com/?blueprint=huginn&ML=-4&PL=-4&F60=1&I=1&e=4&c1=4&c2=4&d=100


Running these same ships through my other tool comes up with radically different numbers for the same parameters. I guess I'll have to figure out why that is.
Emma Royd
Maddled Gommerils
#8 - 2013-02-08 20:35:30 UTC
So don't invent ships if you can't make a profit on them Lol

I'm happy enough ticking along with invention concentrating on the small stuff and it's doing ok, sure it's not mega bucks, but it doesn't cost megabucks in failed inventions either.

Quintessen
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#9 - 2013-02-08 20:53:43 UTC  |  Edited by: Quintessen
Emma Royd wrote:
So don't invent ships if you can't make a profit on them Lol

I'm happy enough ticking along with invention concentrating on the small stuff and it's doing ok, sure it's not mega bucks, but it doesn't cost megabucks in failed inventions either.



At this point I believe it was a misuse of one or more of the tools I was using. Re-running the numbers with a slightly tweaked data set fixes the issue I believe.

Figured it out finally. I was including the cost of the item twice, once for the item and again for the meta item even though it was meta 0.
Raban Sardipan
Imperial Academy
Amarr Empire
#10 - 2013-02-08 21:08:17 UTC
In b4 Krixtal's Cranes....
Huttan Funaila
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#11 - 2013-02-08 21:59:02 UTC
Quintessen wrote:
Basically I've been running a lot of numbers recently and for a lot of T2 ships I can't make them profitable. Is this the famous, "we can't compete with BPOs" or is this more likely the result of unstable T2 production lines?

Basically even with maxed skills, and putting out buy orders on components as cheaply as I can that will actually get filled, I can't seem to make any money on a great many T2 ships. I just wanted to know if I'm missing something in my calculations.


One blog post you really want to read is: http://k162space.com/2012/03/08/t2-bpo-returns/

Quote:
The Good

93.95% of T2 Gyrostabilizers produced in March 2012 were from invention.
In March 2012, 90.23% of Hulks and 84.17% of Mackinaws produced were from invention.
89.77% of 1400mm II, 82.00% of Tachyon II, 87.34% of 425mm Rail II, 74.23% of Torpedo Launcher II produced in March were from invention.
55.25% of Improved Cloaks and 91.93% of Covert Ops Cloaks were produced via invention in March 2012.
86.81% of 220mm Vulcan Autocannons produced in March were produced through invention.

The Eh

67.85% of Sabres and 65.01% of Wolves produced in March 2012 were the from invention.
72.27% of the 2,005 Falcons produced in March 2012 were produced through invention.
66.13% of Ishtars and 63.53% of Zealots produced in March 2012 were produced via invention.

The Ugly

27.60% of Curses and 22.16% of Pilgrims produced in March 2012 were from invention.
Only 7.07% of Absolutions and 23.62% of Sleipnirs produced in March 2012 were produced through invention.
44.58% of Cerberus and 6.00% of Eagles produced in March 2012 were procuded through invention
I have not seen any similar numbers for any more recent months.

The TL;DR summary is "it depends on the item and the market".

Changes in what is popular, combined with changes in ships (such as tiericide), change what is desired by other players. These changes mean that what is profitable one month can quickly become a money loser the next. Ship changes this summer will make some ships easier to get into.
Krixtal Icefluxor
INLAND EMPIRE Galactic
#12 - 2013-02-09 13:19:09 UTC  |  Edited by: Krixtal Icefluxor
Raban Sardipan wrote:
In b4 Krixtal's Cranes....



Actually it was a near 400,000,000 loss manufacturing Bustards.

edit: Some were on the market, especially in Rens, at shockingly below manufacture cost prices. Researched T2 BPO's ? I don't know. It seemed to be more of a .01 ISK War by Market Bots that kept going down and downward with nobody monitoring, or caring, the fact that they were so below cost.

This was around 2 years ago now so it may be different, but I'm certainly not going there again.

"He has mounted his hind-legs, and blown crass vapidities through the bowel of his neck."  - Ambrose Bierce on Oscar Wilde's Lecture in San Francisco 1882

Eric Raeder
No Fee Too High
#13 - 2013-02-09 15:19:51 UTC
There is truth in what previous posters have said about BPO raw material advantages and market swings. But never underestimate the power of human stupidity and laziness. There are many, many, producers out there who are stuck in the meme "materials I produce myself are free." This is most obvious with miners producing minerals for T1 production, but there is an element of it in T2 production as well. Many of the subcomponents that go into T2 items come from Planetary Interaction, and I have seen producers develop the same "materials I produce myself are free" meme with PI as asteroid mining. One would think that most people extracting and reacting moon minerals would be cognizant enough of POS fuel costs to leave that meme behind, but I don't doubt there are players so eager to "make stuff" that they happily run POS's making moon materials at a loss without understanding they are doing so.

You simply cannot pick up a random blueprint in Eve and expect to be able to make the item at a profit. Ships are a particularly dangerous minefield of the market, making ships seems to be "sexier" than humdrum stuff like drones, modules, and rigs (which consistently make way higher profit margins) attracting exactly the sort of clueless producer who can't be bothered with doing cost analysis. Around half the items in the game cannot be made at a profit. Most of the rest make profits so slowly they aren't worth the time and effort. The first, most crucial step of any Eve industry is to identify items that can be made at a high enough profit to be worth bothering with. This takes careful research. People don't refer to Eve industry as "spreadsheets R us" for no reason. Fortunately, talented players have developed third party tools that vastly speed up the "find out what's worth making" stage. I am personally fond of Eve IPH. There are numerous others out there to choose from if Eve IPH doesn't suit you.
Krixtal Icefluxor
INLAND EMPIRE Galactic
#14 - 2013-02-09 15:32:36 UTC
Or they could be deliberately taking a loss without care just to Gank the Market in that particular form of "PvP".

After all, it's not really a big deal to take huge losses on something like this when nowadays you can spend $20 and get 530,000,000 ISK to re-pad your account. (I did this back then for about 350,000,000 ISK to make up for the loss, but only because I just wanted to get rid of the ships at that point).

"He has mounted his hind-legs, and blown crass vapidities through the bowel of his neck."  - Ambrose Bierce on Oscar Wilde's Lecture in San Francisco 1882

J'Ribs
Zepthanui
#15 - 2013-02-09 17:22:25 UTC
http://bp.kiwi.frubar.net/

Hi there.

I'm sitting with 30 billion in my wallet, ALL from t2 invention.

that link is worth it's weight in gold.

If it says it's not profitable, it just ain't.

Fair warning: I was a t2 RIG inventor almost exclusively.

You have to scroll thru each decryptor to see if ANY are profitable. Takes about 30 seconds.

btw: Some Mag Sites in null drop ME 0 Rig BPCs so sometimes you are fighting against explorers too.

Quintessen
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#16 - 2013-02-09 18:22:29 UTC
J'Ribs wrote:
http://bp.kiwi.frubar.net/

Hi there.

I'm sitting with 30 billion in my wallet, ALL from t2 invention.

that link is worth it's weight in gold.

If it says it's not profitable, it just ain't.

Fair warning: I was a t2 RIG inventor almost exclusively.

You have to scroll thru each decryptor to see if ANY are profitable. Takes about 30 seconds.

btw: Some Mag Sites in null drop ME 0 Rig BPCs so sometimes you are fighting against explorers too.



Once I figured out what I was doing wrong with the software, yes I can see them very profitable.