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[speculative] Isogen prices to continue rising
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Dave stark
#21 - 2012-11-28 16:00:30 UTC  |  Edited by: Dave Stark
Sisohiv wrote:
Dave stark wrote:
Sisohiv wrote:
corestwo wrote:
Except Mex has been fairly stable around 60-62 since July, but ok thanks for that I guess?


Mex is not stable, Mex is flat lined. Add in Bistot as a source of Mex and on that note, I notice nobody is asking why the Null bears aren't on Hedbergite?


because there's about 300k/jetcan difference in price bwetween hed and ark, and for 300k/can i wouldn't bother wasting a few days training for crystals either.

in high sec, it's more lucrative to just strip a whole belt of everything rather than faff around trying to cherry pick ores. it's pretty much the same with 0.0 grav sites, especially when they respawn after they've been stripped.

also, bistot doesn't produce mex. it produces pyerite. hemorphite produces mex, then again if i'm reading this website correctly plaig produces 50x more mex than hemo, and it's in abundance around jita.



We still aren't thinking of miners as players with fixed play time, say 2 hrs a day. We assume they are bots, running 23/7 and just mining what's in front of them. If mining is the 2-3 hr player, what will Isogen need to be at to make Hed and Omber the ore people look for when the scanner cycle is up?


a lot, as i pointed out earlier there's no omber near jita. the time/cost of getting your ore to jita outweighs the advantage of moving your mining operation.

i only usually mine for 2-3 hours a day anyway, regardless of the fact i could spend ~12 hours mining some days. yet even with that time i still just strip the whole belt because of all the wasted time slowboating between asteroids, or warping between belts.

ok, if we take a look at omber vs kernite.

for 1 m3 of ore omber is worth 186.84.. isk, and kernite is worth 247.70.. isk.
quick bit of napkin maths on the prices right now shows that if we take all the non-isogen components of both ores, we see that for 1m3 of each ore (to keep the maths easy) omber is worth 11.9.. isk (because it's almost all isogen) vs kernite's 103.99.. isk that's a pretty big difference.

for omber to overcome that, how much will isogen need to be worth? well isogen only produces 0.1826 units of isogen more than kernite does, per 1m3. hence, if we take the difference in price between the two ore without isogen, which is 92.08.. isk, and have that divided by the 0.1826 units of isogen

we get... 504.32.. isk/unit per isogen for omber to be worth the same as kernite assuming all other mineral prices remain stable. hence isogen must be over 504 isk/unit for omber to be the top dog.

i think i've done that right, else VV/cores will be along shortly to mock me for being stupid.
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#22 - 2012-11-28 16:41:50 UTC
At current mineral prices, a maxed out Mackinaw makes 19.19m/hr mining Kernite, but only 14.88m/hr on Omber. The next best ore is Pyrox at 17.81m/hr. Around 208/unit, Omber passes Pyrox to be worth 17.9m/hr, although at this point Kernite is now worth 21.57m/hr. Omber passes Kernite around 425/unit, at which point its worth 35.8m/hr and Kernite is worth 35.48m.


No napkin math here, I just used eve IPH. Great tool.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo
Dave stark
#23 - 2012-11-28 16:53:41 UTC  |  Edited by: Dave Stark
corestwo wrote:
No napkin math here, I just used eve IPH. Great tool.


it may well be, but when your napkins look like this then it's more fun to do things the long way.

my dear old nan did have a strange sense of humour stuffing that in to a birthday card...

edit, also i wasn't far off... kinda.
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#24 - 2012-11-28 17:43:23 UTC
You weren't, no, though I think the point at which omber > non-kernite is probably more relevant than the point at which omber > everything.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo
Dave stark
#25 - 2012-11-28 17:55:23 UTC
corestwo wrote:
You weren't, no, though I think the point at which omber > non-kernite is probably more relevant than the point at which omber > everything.


that point is irrelevant, because kernite will still be worth more than omber since i highly doubt isogen will ever go over 400.
kernite is the ore we should be looking at, even with isogen prices increasing. at least, until other minerals start shifting too.

unless pyerite spikes and/or mex takes a dive, kernite is pretty much always going to be on top of omber, and i'm not sure there's a high sec area with both of those ores present. i also know that neither omber nor kernite are in caldari high sec.

as it stands it's only just about worth moving away from jita if you want to mine kernite, however unless you've already got the standings to get lossless refining in amarr space (i think it's amarr) then you'll be eating up all of your profits in transport costs.

to be honest, minerals are always going to cycle. when one mineral supply dwindles, it's price spikes and people mine the ore that becomes the most lucrative, then that means a shortage of another mineral and the miners migrate again... as kernite doesn't provide pyerite, i'll predict pyerite may be the next to spike. then if iso stays high, perhaps omber might have it's day again.
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#26 - 2012-11-28 21:46:03 UTC
Even if people do flock to mine it, does it matter? As you noted, "serious" highsec miners (Lol) will often simply strip out the entire belt anyway, so even if they move to Amarr space to add Kernite to what they mine, they should still be mining everything else as well. It depends, I guess, on whether the more casual types would move.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo
Dave stark
#27 - 2012-11-28 23:02:45 UTC
corestwo wrote:
Even if people do flock to mine it, does it matter? As you noted, "serious" highsec miners (Lol) will often simply strip out the entire belt anyway, so even if they move to Amarr space to add Kernite to what they mine, they should still be mining everything else as well. It depends, I guess, on whether the more casual types would move.


also "serious" miners realise that you get higher prices in jita, and caldari space has no isogen giving ores, as far as i'm aware.
so it's unsurprising that isogen is rising.

(also i'd say lazy, not serious no miner is serious, we're all lazy)
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#28 - 2012-11-28 23:57:57 UTC
Dave stark wrote:
[quote=corestwo]
(also i'd say lazy, not serious no miner is serious, we're all lazy)


A fact reflected in the comparison of hulk and mackinaw sales.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#29 - 2012-11-29 00:14:11 UTC
corestwo wrote:
Dave stark wrote:
[quote=corestwo]
(also i'd say lazy, not serious no miner is serious, we're all lazy)


A fact reflected in the comparison of hulk and mackinaw sales.


There's no reason to use an Hulk. The crystals bay makes sure they are not even more min maxed, once you look at the effects.

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corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#30 - 2012-11-29 00:33:45 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
corestwo wrote:
Dave stark wrote:
[quote=corestwo]
(also i'd say lazy, not serious no miner is serious, we're all lazy)


A fact reflected in the comparison of hulk and mackinaw sales.


There's no reason to use an Hulk. The crystals bay makes sure they are not even more min maxed, once you look at the effects.


I was alluding to how the mackinaw saw a strong upswing in sales (almost perfectly matched by the Hulk's downswing) after CCP made it perfect for lazy mining.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo
Sisohiv
Center for Advanced Studies
Gallente Federation
#31 - 2012-11-29 01:26:06 UTC
I'd call it smart mining, not lazy mining.
Hulk got screwed in the change. Covetor and Hulk weren't given any role bonus.

Macki laser x 2 + 50% role bonus = 3 lasers and less Capacitor and more tank. Yes that's 3 lasers unbonused in comparison to Hulk that has 3% and 3% higher yield but considering the tank difference, that extra bonus doesn't make it worth it.

Even if everyone went back to Hulks, the nominal difference in the amount of Ore being brought to market won't influence prices much. More miners is what is needed. I don't see that happening. If anything I expect there to be less miners over time.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#32 - 2012-11-29 07:27:48 UTC  |  Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha
corestwo wrote:
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
corestwo wrote:
Dave stark wrote:
[quote=corestwo]
(also i'd say lazy, not serious no miner is serious, we're all lazy)


A fact reflected in the comparison of hulk and mackinaw sales.


There's no reason to use an Hulk. The crystals bay makes sure they are not even more min maxed, once you look at the effects.


I was alluding to how the mackinaw saw a strong upswing in sales (almost perfectly matched by the Hulk's downswing) after CCP made it perfect for lazy mining.


I was there saying 1000 times (and getting flamed a lot) that the Hulk would fail horribly.
It's not just about "lazy mining" it's just about Mack > Hulk and that's it.

CCP failed once when implementing generalistic T3 > specialized T2 already and did it again for the barges.

As I said so many times on GD at the time of the changes, CCP fails at the simple concept that even WoW implemented right: the selected "min max, one trick pony class" must be streamlined in its gameplay to easily do the one trick.

If CCP would have chosen the Skiff for the "max yield" hull (ofc removing the tank buff), today we'd see:

- Miners picking it because with 1 laser it's the least micromanagement choice for crystals. It'd be the cheapest and most practical for heavy duty use, that is what min maxers want.

- Fleets picking it because it moves in place the fastest.

- Least modules to install => cheaper to deploy, the perfect one trick pony.

- Well abundant cargo for crystals => most practical for heavy duty belts stripping.


But no, CCP did it the contrary and guess what? Miners, even min maxers, went for the ship that gives the best crystals room and fewer modules to install and middle mincromanagement and speed.

The Mack's fat cargo was already a recipe for huge success but CCP really denied the Hulk any option to make miners ask themselves: "yes if I pick an Hulk I give up on cargo BUT...".

CCP removed the BUT.

Considering non bots always have some inefficiency at switching roids, move in place and so on, the Hulk yield advantage is a non factor.

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Dave stark
#33 - 2012-11-29 08:00:29 UTC  |  Edited by: Dave Stark
corestwo wrote:
Dave stark wrote:

(also i'd say lazy, not serious no miner is serious, we're all lazy)


A fact reflected in the comparison of hulk and mackinaw sales.


the thing is though, how many miners run less than 3 accounts? i'd wager in high sec, a sizable portion of them do (i won't try and guess how many, though) because let's face it, new players trying to earn isk try mining and think "yeah it's making me money better skill up my mining skills" and get "trapped" mining on one account which really doesn't lend itself to hulk mining. i only have two accounts myself so i'm using a mack and a ret, because the extra yield a hulk gets simply isn't worth it over a mackinaw.

Sisohiv wrote:
I'd call it smart mining, not lazy mining.
Hulk got screwed in the change. Covetor and Hulk weren't given any role bonus.

Macki laser x 2 + 50% role bonus = 3 lasers and less Capacitor and more tank. Yes that's 3 lasers unbonused in comparison to Hulk that has 3% and 3% higher yield but considering the tank difference, that extra bonus doesn't make it worth it.

Even if everyone went back to Hulks, the nominal difference in the amount of Ore being brought to market won't influence prices much. More miners is what is needed. I don't see that happening. If anything I expect there to be less miners over time.


if every one went back to hulks then mineral prices would go up as supply would fall, people would be mining less due to the extra travel time warping to and from belts, or lost jetcans from can flippers.

as i predicted before the changes went live, the mackinaw is now king. the hulk doesn't outmine the mackinaw sufficiently for it to be of any use to a player with less than 3 accounts, and the skiff's tank is just OTT, the macks is sufficient to deter catalyst suicide gankers which is all that was really needed. in short, the skiff offers nothing except extra and redundant tank, and the hulk simply hasn't got the cargo capacity to be even remotely useful to a pilot who isn't mining to fund his whole fleet of miners.

it simply went from king hulk, to king mackinaw. every one with half a brain saw it coming.
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#34 - 2012-11-30 04:05:38 UTC
Someone bought out all the Iso below 260 or so. Again. Lol

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo
poof312
Kenshin Industries.
Kenshin Shogunate.
#35 - 2012-11-30 06:09:14 UTC
Block Ukx wrote:


I'm guessing most Isogen does not comes from Omber. Look at the top ore : Ore Income

Based on my ore pricing model and current Nocxium prices, Isogen could break the 260 ISK mark.



This is my point. Omber is not a significant source (right now.) Thus supplies are low. Once the price spikes, we'll see more omber being mined and a normalization in prices.

I think we underestimate the number of hi-sec miners out there.
Vanria Vexed
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#36 - 2012-11-30 06:11:01 UTC
This is definitely and interesting ride, I wonder when the Isogen train is going to derail.

**Playing EVE at times feels like putting a 10000 piece puzzle together, enjoying the accomplishment of succedding in completing it, then having some random stranger walk by and flip your table over. **
poof312
Kenshin Industries.
Kenshin Shogunate.
#37 - 2012-11-30 06:19:09 UTC
Vanria Vexed wrote:
This is definitely and interesting ride, I wonder when the Isogen train is going to derail.


I'd say within a few days. The price is going to be higher than it was a month ago, but it's going to come down from 200 in the short term, I'm sure. Stockpilers are going to see it as worthwhile to make the trip to jita and unload, and miners are going to react to this price change as well. Not to mention the fact that speculators are going to want to take their profits before the correction...
Dave stark
#38 - 2012-11-30 08:13:56 UTC  |  Edited by: Dave Stark
poof312 wrote:
Block Ukx wrote:


I'm guessing most Isogen does not comes from Omber. Look at the top ore : Ore Income

Based on my ore pricing model and current Nocxium prices, Isogen could break the 260 ISK mark.



This is my point. Omber is not a significant source (right now.) Thus supplies are low. Once the price spikes, we'll see more omber being mined and a normalization in prices.

I think we underestimate the number of hi-sec miners out there.


but we won't. as pointed out, isogen will have to hit over 400 isk/unit for omber to be worth mining instead of kernite assuming other mineral prices stay the same. not sure i can see that happening.

as the price increases it just furthers kernite's cause as king of high sec ores.
the iso spike has put omber at 6.9m per jetcan, which is absolutely fantastic. however king kernite pulls in 8m per jetcan.
that makes kernite the second most valuable non-mercoxit ore per m3. (and the most valuable high sec ore)

also, right now the price seems to be adjusting to traders, rather than miners.
Block Ukx
420 Enterprises.
#39 - 2012-11-30 13:36:53 UTC



Omber moves to the middle of the pack; Ore Income. Mining omber is not as bad as it used to be. In fact, it looks pretty good compared to other high sec ores.
Lolar55
Banana Toaster
#40 - 2012-11-30 14:33:27 UTC
2x 100m orders at 240 good luck with your dumb manipulation.
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