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Experiment #01: RL finance analysis applied to EvE

First post First post First post
Author
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#161 - 2012-11-17 18:11:11 UTC
Alwar Seko wrote:
Exelent thread, keep up the good work.

Applying stuff from this to my trading alt helped me keep my PvP habit funded more easily Big smile


Thank you for the appreciation!

It's the least I could do, I got so much help reading this forum that giving back is the mimumum.

I have done it several times in the past but I'll repeat it again: none of my RL life and none of my EvE current life would be possible if one day I would not have read this thread. It all started from there, and from some ancient traders writing how they'd earn a lot of ISK by setting orders 10 minutes a day (not 12 hours a day), just in the right way.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#162 - 2012-11-17 18:42:22 UTC  |  Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha
corestwo wrote:
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Alwar Seko wrote:
Exelent thread, keep up the good work.

Applying stuff from this to my trading alt helped me keep my PvP habit funded more easily Big smile


Thank you for the appreciation!

It's the least I could do, I got so much help reading this forum that giving back is the mimumum.

I have done it several times in the past but I'll repeat it again: none of my RL life and none of my EvE current life would be possible if one day I would not have read this thread. It all started from there, and from some ancient traders writing how they'd earn a lot of ISK by setting orders 10 minutes a day (not 12 hours a day), just in the right way.


No wonder people can't take you seriously. "FOR JUST TEN MINUTES A DAY YOU TOO CAN MAKE THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS" sounds entirely too much like the pitch for basically any get rich quick scheme ever. Lol


First of all you should demonstrate people can't take me seriously. Find me ANYONE in this game who can post screenshots of his past purchases both in game and in RL (posted few posts above) and compare with today's prices and show the profit.
Second, it's not a mystery that markets fluctuations take out orders even without babysitting.
Third, I can't change what people posted on this forum, whether you agree with it or not. It's people like Kazzac Elentria and similar. Even bits from Akita T.
They, and not you, I have to thank for all what I have learned.
You are closed in your ivory tower scheming with your cabal and doing a lot except helping the other players improve their performance. That's fine, but allow somebody else to exist outside of your grasp.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#163 - 2012-11-17 19:26:35 UTC
Update on Megacyte

We are at one of the turning points for this market.

Here's an updated screenshot of the market. Everybody can create it now, by simply downloading this free software and importing the data in any charting program.


What Price is Doing (WPD)

Price has been steadly rising inside a bullish channel (red trend lines) for quite a while.
It hit the quite important RN 2,400 level (important since it is both RN and past weekly resistance) and got rejected.

(Out of topic blurb)
This action and reaction is normal, in fact price constantly oscillates around the current equilibrium.
Swings work like this: imagine the current demand vs supply equilibrium is at 2000 and the new equilibrium is at 2010.
One would "expect" rational markets to move from 2000 to 2010 but markets actors are human and not rational. Therefore it is normal to see price going 2000 to 2200 and then back to 2000 and down to 1910 before it rises up again to 2010 and sticks there (for a tiny time anyway). Action and reaction, like price is a rubber ball bouncing inside and between boxes (range markets) and following invisible walls (channels).

Anyway, the rejection made price swing down almost to my Stop Loss (SL), that is where I'd sell my stock. The chart shows a red line where it sits. In RL markets the SL is a special order that auto-triggers when your order is going against you beyond a certain price. IE my long order taken at price = 1800 would be stopped if price retracted below 2200.
In EvE there are no auto stop losses so I have to check price every now and then and react accordingly.

SL are an important tool, since they represent the staple of Money Management (MM) and trade planning.
MM is the fundamental discipline that tells traders how to cut losses short and let profits run. I have covered it in the past already, it's thanks to it that a trader knows when to exit a trade.
There are several MM tecniques, the one I am using is the long term one: place the SL below each Range Market. As price rises and forms the next RM I move the SL up by one RM.
Other MM tecniques involve: putting the SL below NN bars below the price, placing the SL below the previous swing or using trend lines (like the ones I have drawn) to sell when price breaks them.

As I said above, price swings to find the new equilibrium, so it made a RM on Nov 3 (SL placed below it) and another on Nov 12. The second RM is a tiny bit higher, the swings are the way price tells us that the new equilibrium was a tiny bit higher on Nov 12 than on Nov 3.
Those two RMs also formed a double bottom. If it'll be confirmed by price closing above 2400 then price will shoot high and fast. RMs are price momentum accumulation devices.

On the chart it's also visible how sellers tried their best to crash the price but failed and put a so called Inverse Pin Bar (IPB) on Nov 14. The bullish IPB first target is the tip of it's tail, which has been hit now.
It stopped below the channel however. This means that buyers are not strong enough to re-enter it as of today.
**If** they will do, then those now "orphan" bars that exited below will be called "market extension". This is a little accumulator that propels price higher (in this case) because by smashing price low, the reaction is to make it bounce up stronger.
If they don't, then price will start ranging, expecially if the week (tomorrow) closes below the monthly level 2289. In case of range, the outcome does not matter as all we would do in RL is to buy at the RM bottom (monthly level 2194) and sell at the RM top (monthly level 2289). In EvE it's not always doable because the broker fees etc. could make the range too thin.


"So, all of this gibberish is fine, but is price going UP or DOWN?"

If you wonder about this, then you have not got the whole idea of swing trading.
What matters is that the plan is followed to the letter, which in my case means my stop loss is at the place I indicated and in your case it may mean what you planned for yourself.

Some plans would have said to dump stock when the trend line broke ("many panic dumped here"), or whatever.

If you are not in the market yet, it's too late to buy now. You have to buy once price re-enters the channel (if it'll do) and preferably once it broke 2400, dipped down to 2400 and placed a pin bar or another of those 4-5 patterns (BUOB etc.).
Aryth
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#164 - 2012-11-17 20:41:02 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
corestwo wrote:
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Alwar Seko wrote:
Exelent thread, keep up the good work.

Applying stuff from this to my trading alt helped me keep my PvP habit funded more easily Big smile


Thank you for the appreciation!

It's the least I could do, I got so much help reading this forum that giving back is the mimumum.

I have done it several times in the past but I'll repeat it again: none of my RL life and none of my EvE current life would be possible if one day I would not have read this thread. It all started from there, and from some ancient traders writing how they'd earn a lot of ISK by setting orders 10 minutes a day (not 12 hours a day), just in the right way.


No wonder people can't take you seriously. "FOR JUST TEN MINUTES A DAY YOU TOO CAN MAKE THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS" sounds entirely too much like the pitch for basically any get rich quick scheme ever. Lol


First of all you should demonstrate people can't take me seriously. Find me ANYONE in this game who can post screenshots of his past purchases both in game and in RL (posted few posts above) and compare with today's prices and show the profit.
Second, it's not a mystery that markets fluctuations take out orders even without babysitting.
Third, I can't change what people posted on this forum, whether you agree with it or not. It's people like Kazzac Elentria and similar. Even bits from Akita T.
They, and not you, I have to thank for all what I have learned.
You are closed in your ivory tower scheming with your cabal and doing a lot except helping the other players improve their performance. That's fine, but allow somebody else to exist outside of your grasp.


Linked to this post. Normally I refrain from posting within this forum, and so your Ivory tower reference seemed close to, but not accurate as to the reality.

One of our primary focus's is to enrich Goondom as a whole, not just ourselves. So while there is a Black Tower, the masses that live next to it benefit greatly as well. The difference is, what we do has long term purpose beyond personal enrichment. What we often feel is happening in this forum, is something closer to monkeys smelling each others butts and grooming each other. They are self aware, but they sure don't see the bigger picture around them. Nor often what is really behind those markets moving. (Hint, it is often us)

Leader of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal.

Creator of Burn Jita

Vile Rat: You're the greatest sociopath that has ever played eve.

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#165 - 2012-11-17 23:14:55 UTC
Aryth wrote:

Linked to this post. Normally I refrain from posting within this forum, and so your Ivory tower reference seemed close to, but not accurate as to the reality.

One of our primary focus's is to enrich Goondom as a whole, not just ourselves. So while there is a Black Tower, the masses that live next to it benefit greatly as well. The difference is, what we do has long term purpose beyond personal enrichment.


First of all let me say that it's an honor seeing you posting here.
I do understand why you do what you do and also why you act different than me at sharing what you know.

However you (and this is aimed at Mynna not Aryth) should understand in turn, that others prefer acting different than you do.

This is not about roleplay but about out of game respect. I don't come to call you names or diss what you do in your threads and websites or wherever, please do the same.
Wylenith
Joe's Towing - You Smash It We Trash It
#166 - 2012-11-19 18:56:11 UTC
corestwo wrote:
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:

This is not about roleplay but about out of game respect.


Respect is earned.


And earn it Vaerah has. At least from me. Vaerah may not remember me but about 6 months ago I stumbled across this thread and even though I never finished past the introduction, V changed my entire life. Following one of the links that was posted (to BabyPips) I was introduced to a world that I, and many millions of others, didn't even know existed. Yeah, everyone's heard of the NYSE, but I'd never been exposed to Forex.

After spending the past six months devouring every resource I could find regarding the world of foreign exchange, including picking Vaerah's brain a little in the beginning, I've recently started trading on a live account. Sorry V, I know you and every other resource out there says to trade for a minimum of 1-3 years on practice before going live, but I figured I'd give it a shot with a small account to start and see where it goes. I also went into it with realistic expectations. I *expect* to blow up the account, but at the same time, I expect to learn, and it's money I can afford to lose (rule # 1 of trading) and I still have a full time job.

Personally, I don't understand the hate that's directed at Vaerah over this thread. It's even called an 'experiment'. Given the complexity of Eve, along with the fact that most markets are dominated by human psychology, I don't see any reason why applying a little TA to the markets wouldn't work. After all, every form of analysis comes down to one goal: Gaining an edge in the market. It's not about "predicting" the market in any way.

Having talked with Vaerah in-game about the foreign exchange market, and studying the resources she mentioned, I can see why she chose TA as her "method of choice"... Trading live using strictly TA methods is the only thing that's led to a profitable account. During the first few months on practice I was trying out multiple different strategies and they all worked, some of the time. But in the end, they all failed. TA was the only method that has led to a profit.

So Vaerah, consider this a fan letter, and also my thanks for setting me on a new path in life. I think I owe you a space-beer or something. Everyone else? F'n relax people. It's a game. Sure, it's a serious game, but it's still a game.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#167 - 2012-11-19 19:12:25 UTC
Wylenith wrote:
So Vaerah, consider this a fan letter, and also my thanks for setting me on a new path in life. I think I owe you a space-beer or something. Everyone else? F'n relax people. It's a game. Sure, it's a serious game, but it's still a game.


Thank you a lot! One appreciation post is all what makes me feel glad I have started this. Most don't dare to post because they don't like to be abused by the flames train so double thanks to you for coming out and state your thoughts.

Of course if you still need any assistence please feel free to eve mail me about it.


corestwo wrote:
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:

This is not about roleplay but about out of game respect.


Respect is earned.


Have I done something to not earn it, besides thinking differently than you?
Wylenith
Joe's Towing - You Smash It We Trash It
#168 - 2012-11-19 21:30:19 UTC


Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Thank you a lot! One appreciation post is all what makes me feel glad I have started this. Most don't dare to post because they don't like to be abused by the flames train so double thanks to you for coming out and state your thoughts.


Ha! This is Eve we're talking about. A flame-proof suit is pretty much a requirement around these parts. I've never really worried about what other people think, and I can't imagine myself starting now. Glad I could make your day a little better V.

Much Respect,
Wy
Arancar Australis
Dead Sun Rising Enterprises
#169 - 2012-11-20 08:56:08 UTC  |  Edited by: Arancar Australis
There are many ways to play this sandbox of a game...this is just one of them.

Just like the goonie financial cabal is a group willing to take the time and effort extrapolate what could happen in the sandbox and to act accordingly or to make markets move the way they wish, with the backing that they have...also another way to play the sandbox we all like to visit.

Keep doing what you are doing, VV, because you obviously enjoy doing it your way and that is what the game is all about, getting the most enjoyment out of it for yourself...no matter the way in which you achieve it.

The beauty of EVE is that no matter the subject, you get to argue about how another person's view is absolute drivel and truth (or lack of it) be damned Smile

Cheers,

AA
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#170 - 2012-11-20 10:36:30 UTC
Arancar Australis wrote:
There are many ways to play this sandbox of a game...this is just one of them.


You literally extracted my thoughts from my brains with this. Cheers! Big smile
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#171 - 2012-11-28 14:50:40 UTC
Isogen

Before people begin to howl at me: no, this is not a "prediction" analysis, no I am not saying you to BUY ISO NAO. Price ATM does not "say" anything.

Isogen ATM went hyperbolical, an unstable state I talked a lot about in the past. A state that does not last forever, usually the result of going hyperbolical is a crash.
If you are not in the market already, you should not buy, else you might luck out but you might also buy the highest possible and get unsellable stock for a year.

Another tip: if you want to know an analysis *before* your favourite market started its run, you are better to ask me in game early, not when it's so late. Or - better - you might download the various software I have made available and do the analysis by yourself.


Monthly chart

What Price is Doing

This chart shows the last time the market suggested it was possible to buy: a large Pin Bar (monthly bars are very powreful). The PB itself would not be very significant if not for the confluences: it also closes and "retests" (dips back to) above 120 BRN and also does the same on that purple monthly level.

Another cue worth noting: the month is almost over, therefore the last bar will close. If it closes at or below 170 BRN, that's a strong signal that the market lost liquidity and strength and its now in a fragile status that might crash any time.


Weekly chart

What Price is Doing

The weekly chart is a mine of information.
It shows how right at the end of May there'd been a profit opportunity (see the PB) and then another opportunity on September (BUOB with PB). Anybody who'd buy on September like I did for most minerals, would now be able to boast their +40 - + 50 - +60 percent EvE Income Analyzer graphs side with side with me.

The whole purchase opportunity is made even more visible by the fact that it's quite easy to see how the whole light blue rectangle is a Range Market (RM) known as "double bottom", which is a very strong bullish pattern. I have discussed about double bottoms a lot in the past posts so I won't expand a lot about them here.

The dark blue RM shows a second purchase signal. It's basically the monthly chart pin bar (PB) appearing as its components (don't forget that markets are fractal, monthly bars are formed by weekly bars which in turn are formed by daily bars and so on). One of those components is an Inside Bar (IB), those are quite complex to talk about. Suffice to say that an inside bar is a bar that closes inside the previous one and depending on their respective locations, they tell up to 5 different cues. One of those is the IB that closes above a price level (120 BRN in this case): it means its participants (red bar in this example = sellers) are exhausted and to expect the opposite ones (buyers) to take control at the next bar.


Daily chart

Where Price is Going

The daily chart is less significant than the weekly but tells its cues none the less.

The first is something I recently got taught by my RL trading mentor: when price is inside a RM (see the blue rectangle) and temporarily "pops out" and reenters (see Oct 10 two bars going out and then back in) then this behavior is called "market extension". Many times price will later break the RM in the opposite direction of such market extension: in fact the market extension broke down and at the end of the RM, price climbed up.

The second is an advanced pattern called Inverse Pin Bar (IPB) which acts the same as a Pin Bar but it's flipped upside down. In this case the IPB made price dip back (or "retrace") on top of the RM without closing inside, which this trading method considers it a cue that the RM got confirmed, buyers "won" the RM and thus price will rise.

The last cue is the tight channel I marked with two diagonal red trend lines. As you can see, price broke the channel upwards (another market extension!) and went hyperbolical. We expect price will re-enter the channel and then hit the opposite trend line before deciding what to do. If it breaks the second trend line, then it's time to dump your stock FAST before the market crashes.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#172 - 2012-12-03 14:25:53 UTC
I have posted a more than 1 hour long video about the trading method I use both for EvE and RL (the video is applied to a RL market).

Sadly this release is in Italian so only players who understand such language may fully understand what's being shown.

Sven Hammerstorm
Royal Amarr Institute
Amarr Empire
#173 - 2012-12-03 21:53:08 UTC  |  Edited by: Sven Hammerstorm
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#174 - 2012-12-03 22:06:00 UTC
Thank you! Let's see to improve the charts.

Please forget posting the M and D charts for now.

Go on the chart program and switch to month.

Now draw M lines ONLY:

1) At swings that are halted by those levels. I.e. price is tanking then it meets the line and it inverts.

Levels that just make price bounce and then continue in the same direction are not worth drawing unless they do the bounce thing 2+ times (even after long time).


2) Below and upside big enough range markets. Range markets are bars areas that can be enclosed inside a rectangle.

Example.


3) At the highest and lowest swing of all.


The scope of this exercise is to find the *least* M levels as possible.

I will try making a video about this when I can, because I understand it can be confusing.


Now switch to W and repeat with the W levels, following the same rules.

There is an additional rule but now it's too early to make you observe it.

Once you are done please repost that W chart.
Sven Hammerstorm
Royal Amarr Institute
Amarr Empire
#175 - 2012-12-03 22:45:38 UTC
Okay, here is the revised version. Also has the range markets drawn.

http://img594.imageshack.us/img594/3932/asdasddweek111.png
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#176 - 2012-12-03 23:22:36 UTC
Here's my super heavily commented version of that chart.

Notice how I split some stuff. I have drawn double tops and bottoms with gray arrows at the swings that form the W or M shapes.

Notice how price reacts at RNs and BRNs despite the EvE players don't even know what they are.

The last double bottom - as you said in game - put a PB above it. That PB dips back to its resistance making it its support.
This particular action is called "retracement" and turns any double top into a "confirmed price inversion".

That is, a double bottom is not confirmed by default. It NEEDS bars to dip back on it and only then we can say that price inverted its motion.

How is this cue important? Because once we have a confirmed price inversion we just achieved the trader dream: to know when price reached the bottom. Only then we can say we bought low (to sell high).
Buying without this confirmation equals to flipping a coin: price can invert but it can also just keep dropping forever.
Sven Hammerstorm
Royal Amarr Institute
Amarr Empire
#177 - 2012-12-05 17:44:58 UTC
Another chart http://img845.imageshack.us/img845/6619/arblstj.png

Monthly only had 2 lines again, so omitted.

Was not sure about the RM bottoms, wether the RM bottom should be at the wick, or at the bottom of the bar. Difference would be that the rightmost RM sits on a RN instead of BRN.

The first double bottom ends with a IPB, that sends the price down. After that another double bottom forms with a PB in the end, after which price goes up all the way to BRN 54 000.

Another RM forms, hitting a resistance at BRN 62 000. It looks like another double bottom forms here, but I did not see retracement for confirmation.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#178 - 2012-12-05 23:50:40 UTC
Sven Hammerstorm wrote:
Another chart http://img845.imageshack.us/img845/6619/arblstj.png

Monthly only had 2 lines again, so omitted.

Was not sure about the RM bottoms, wether the RM bottom should be at the wick, or at the bottom of the bar. Difference would be that the rightmost RM sits on a RN instead of BRN.

The first double bottom ends with a IPB, that sends the price down. After that another double bottom forms with a PB in the end, after which price goes up all the way to BRN 54 000.

Another RM forms, hitting a resistance at BRN 62 000. It looks like another double bottom forms here, but I did not see retracement for confirmation.



It's impressive how much you advance at each chart you post!

Here's how I see it, with some corrections (including some concepts you could not know).

From the left to the right:

- The first pattern is not a double top. Double tops / bottoms are relatively "level" patterns. In particular, if the two tops / bottoms sit on two non horizontally related swings then they are not double tops / bottoms.

What you see is a regular trend up, formed by a lower swing followed by an higher swing.

- The level you marked at about 77k is not to be. It might be a daily level in case the two bars expand into a rectangular shape but as I told in game, daily levels are almost always to ignore.

- The next blue rectangle is not really a weekly RM, it's just a swing down. On the daily level it may be a RM but not on the weekly.

- The next RM is a double top. I marked the relevant swings in red. It's extremely rare to get a double bottom past which the price drops, double bottoms are usually trend inversion patterns that start or (more rarely) continue an uptrend.
Double bottoms are usually trend inversion patterns that start or (more rarely) continue a downtrend.

That RM and the next ones are all "static" (that is horizontal) patterns, their boundaries are drawn on the candle bars bodies, not on the tails. I have drawn a white rectangle around the proper boundaries.

Finally, the "BRNs" are BIG Round Numbers. 62000 is not a BRN, 60k is, 65k is. Some commodities follow BRNs very very much, others only follow 2-3 BRNs. You see which is your case because by merely drawing the monthly and weekly lines, if you see many of them sitting at BRNs then the commodity is BRN following.

That is, you have to "query" the market by analyzing where to put the price levels. If several of those price levels happen to sit at BRNs then you got a BRN following commodity.

The opposite is not true. If you draw lots of BRNs and pretend price has to adapt to them, you WILL make a wrong analysis. Price is the only one who can say where to draw levels. If they happen to sit on BRN good. Else... nothing you can do about that.
Block Ukx
Forge Laboratories
#179 - 2012-12-06 02:28:27 UTC


Could you give me your best prediction for the price of Zydrine and Megacyte for December 28th?

Sven Hammerstorm
Royal Amarr Institute
Amarr Empire
#180 - 2012-12-06 15:40:52 UTC  |  Edited by: Sven Hammerstorm
I tried doing megacyte chart for fun, but it did not exactly tell me anything but my guess would be: 'it seems to be going down for a while and keeps doing that at least until 2000 isk or the weekly level below'

Disregard the last bar, it is not yet complete(and wont be for a few days). Also, the BRNs I drew maybe could be removed except for the 2500 BRN. The trend lines are bit of an uncharted territory for me so no idea if they are right or completely wrong!

http://img685.imageshack.us/img685/670/mgctemonthly.png
http://img706.imageshack.us/img706/5997/mgcteweek.png

VV will undoubtedly have some corrections for this!