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Calculating the metric called Risk
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Kinis Deren
Mosquito Squadron
D0GS OF WAR
#1 - 2012-11-24 10:38:41 UTC
In pretty much any discussion about the overall direction of game development, the old phrase "Risk vs Reward" is often cited. Reward seems to be all about "more than that guy". But what about Risk, is there an accepted definition or metric? Well none that I can find, so I'd be interested in what the community as a whole thinks.

To get the ball rolling, I attempted a very simplistic calculation myself, using the data from Dotlan 2012 Summary in which I defined risk = ship kills/jumps. Here are the figures for the different secs;

High Sec = 0.002987
Low Sec = 0.013413
Null Sec = 0.007816

By the above definition, low sec is approximately twice as risky as null sec.

As I've already stated, this is a very simplistic overview and can see several issues with it myself, but do you have a better definition and associated data?
Alice Saki
Nocturnal Romance
Cynosural Field Theory.
#2 - 2012-11-24 10:44:44 UTC
Oh My GD has gone to the Dogs

FREEZE! Drop the LIKES AND WALK AWAY! - Currenly rebuilding gaming machine, I will Return.
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#3 - 2012-11-24 10:49:33 UTC
How about the same definition as everywhere else: risk = probability × cost.
Dave stark
#4 - 2012-11-24 10:58:06 UTC
oh look, the part of space that has gate camps at most gates has more ship losses per system than other parts of space. who'd have thought?
Schalac
Apocalypse Reign
#5 - 2012-11-24 11:33:58 UTC
This just proves that null sec needs more risk introduced because it is far more lucrative than low sec for half the risk.

SCHALAC HAS SPOKEN!! http://eveboard.com/pilot/Schalac
TharOkha
0asis Group
#6 - 2012-11-24 11:37:08 UTC
number of destroyed ships is not all risks in EVE

CODE. Venture hunt contest in a nutshell
Schalac
Apocalypse Reign
#7 - 2012-11-24 11:40:10 UTC
TharOkha wrote:
number of destroyed ships is not all risks in EVE

Yes it is, the OP proved it.

SCHALAC HAS SPOKEN!! http://eveboard.com/pilot/Schalac
Kitty Bear
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#8 - 2012-11-24 12:10:47 UTC
Risk is equivalent within all the different "security" environments.

Smart people should realise this.
Shaishi Otichoda
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#9 - 2012-11-24 12:59:13 UTC
Tippia wrote:
How about the same definition as everywhere else: risk = probability × cost.

Please define probability.
Tippia
Sunshine and Lollipops
#10 - 2012-11-24 13:03:11 UTC
Shaishi Otichoda wrote:
Tippia wrote:
How about the same definition as everywhere else: risk = probability × cost.

Please define probability.
Probability.
Sarah Schneider
Native Freshfood
Minmatar Republic
#11 - 2012-11-24 13:08:34 UTC
Is this one of those topics like when we humans try to measure happiness and life?

"I'd rather have other players get shot by other players than not interacting with others" -CCP Soundwave
Auric Veldfinger
Doomheim
#12 - 2012-11-24 16:15:45 UTC  |  Edited by: Auric Veldfinger
Hard to assess risk for certain systems because probability of loss will be affected by individual pilot skill. Perhaps insurance in EVE should be more like insurance in real life, why should a careful pilot like me be paying the same premium as a woman pilot who autopilots her ship while doing make up in the rear view mirror?
Nalha Saldana
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#13 - 2012-11-24 16:19:45 UTC
Well to get null space you first have to risk your supers, jfs, POSes, ihubs etc while lowsec is open to anyone without risking anything but what you're in.
Auric Veldfinger
Doomheim
#14 - 2012-11-24 16:25:19 UTC
Nalha Saldana wrote:
Well to get null space you first have to risk your supers, jfs, POSes, ihubs etc while lowsec is open to anyone without risking anything but what you're in.


Low doesn't have 24 different intel channels with 700 people in at every hour of the day.
Ioci
Bad Girl Posse
#15 - 2012-11-24 16:26:23 UTC
further divide this in to faction null and Sov Null.

The inability to secure faction Null has been the reason given for it's desolation.

R.I.P. Vile Rat
Dave stark
#16 - 2012-11-24 17:07:04 UTC
Auric Veldfinger wrote:
Nalha Saldana wrote:
Well to get null space you first have to risk your supers, jfs, POSes, ihubs etc while lowsec is open to anyone without risking anything but what you're in.


Low doesn't have 24 different intel channels with 700 people in at every hour of the day.


and that's the player's fault, and absolutely nothing to do with the game's design or mechanics.
nothing is stopping people doing the same for low sec.
Merouk Baas
#17 - 2012-11-24 17:07:17 UTC  |  Edited by: Merouk Baas
probability = ship kills / jumps

risk = probability * cost of the ship and cargo that you're gonna fly there * high, low, or nullsec factor

better probability = value of ships killed / value of ships jumping in, but nobody keeps track of that.
Ocih
Space Mermaids
#18 - 2012-11-24 17:19:45 UTC
Dave stark wrote:
Auric Veldfinger wrote:
Nalha Saldana wrote:
Well to get null space you first have to risk your supers, jfs, POSes, ihubs etc while lowsec is open to anyone without risking anything but what you're in.


Low doesn't have 24 different intel channels with 700 people in at every hour of the day.


and that's the player's fault, and absolutely nothing to do with the game's design or mechanics.
nothing is stopping people doing the same for low sec.


Not really.

If I am in an alliance that has the members and resources to provide JiT intell over 30 systems, why would I stay in lolsec?
Shaishi Otichoda
Science and Trade Institute
Caldari State
#19 - 2012-11-24 17:21:16 UTC
Tippia wrote:
Shaishi Otichoda wrote:
Tippia wrote:
How about the same definition as everywhere else: risk = probability × cost.

Please define probability.
Probability.

Let me rephrase: define probability in context of EVE Online. Is it kills per jump, kills per time spent in system or what?
Nalha Saldana
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#20 - 2012-11-24 17:31:12 UTC
Ocih wrote:
Dave stark wrote:
Auric Veldfinger wrote:
Nalha Saldana wrote:
Well to get null space you first have to risk your supers, jfs, POSes, ihubs etc while lowsec is open to anyone without risking anything but what you're in.


Low doesn't have 24 different intel channels with 700 people in at every hour of the day.


and that's the player's fault, and absolutely nothing to do with the game's design or mechanics.
nothing is stopping people doing the same for low sec.


Not really.

If I am in an alliance that has the members and resources to provide JiT intell over 30 systems, why would I stay in lolsec?


This is why i would want more dangerous lowsec gate guns, it its not the profit but the safety that is the problem.
Lowsec is supposed (by design) to be a big NRDS area for people not as organized and I think that it should be enforced more by NPCs but should still be dangerous in other ways then gate camps.
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