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Experiment #01: RL finance analysis applied to EvE

First post First post First post
Author
Rykker Bow
The Scope
#141 - 2012-10-07 22:21:35 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
I like both games, I play both.



Been doing a little out of EvE trading myself. Played D3 markets, very boring, very basic but I was able to make my initial investment from the game purchase back from the RMAH market. Started playing GW3 and while I typically play the game as it's intended to see the player mechanics first hand, I have just recently started playing with the market and find it excellent and exciting.

I've also come across the gw2spidy site and was relieved to see that that kind of market information was available. Your above post is another relief as I'd like to see your influence seep into the gw2spidy site as I'm sure it will mirror my own desires!

The Mjolnir Bloc - Lowsec PvP for the sophisticated - The Mjolnir Bloc Killboards

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#142 - 2012-10-07 22:40:43 UTC
I did not understand the point of the last Corestwo reply (my lacking English needs more direct talk), but I do understand Rykker's and appreciate it!

I am also kicking my mentor where the sun does not shine to force him to start doing something in English, there's so much stuff to learn and it's actually fun. Fun enough to make it become a RL job while still being fun enough to want to also do it in games.
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#143 - 2012-10-08 00:31:42 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
I did not understand the point of the last Corestwo reply (my lacking English needs more direct talk), but I do understand Rykker's and appreciate it!

I mean that in hindsight, you latching onto someone's out-of-game project that is producing rudimentary market graphs is not at all surprising. Not much more to it than that.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#144 - 2012-10-11 14:19:03 UTC
corestwo wrote:
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
I did not understand the point of the last Corestwo reply (my lacking English needs more direct talk), but I do understand Rykker's and appreciate it!

I mean that in hindsight, you latching onto someone's out-of-game project that is producing rudimentary market graphs is not at all surprising. Not much more to it than that.


Spent about 2 hours yesterday afternoon in IRC with the guy, expecially about candle bars rules, format, sanitizing and high speed caching algorythms to convert tick data to OHLC data. He will have to refactor a lot of code to implement that but he told me that the feature is being pressed by so many GW2 people that he's going to do it.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#145 - 2012-10-11 15:24:34 UTC
Last BRN based (also known as "trading easy mode") example.

Nitrogen Isotopes

As usualy there's first a weekly chart to show the market general structure and then a daily one.

The first picture is the weekly chart.

I put some arrows near topic weekly price formations sitting at BRNs. Just by blindly buying at those spots would have brought sensible profits.

The trade all to the right is actually impossible in EvE, it's a short entry for a special kind of PB called "Inverse Pin Bar" (IPB). It behaves exactly like a pin bar (PB) but its tail is put in the opposite side.
For those traders in the closed group: it's classified as Trading Advanced concept and unlocked after about 6 months of learning.

The second, heavily commented picture is the daily chart.

It shows a series of long and short trades setups, some riskier than others, some very simple and some requiring about 1 year of learning: the so called "first chance reversal pin bars" and their targets, the intended following range markets and the theory behind all of it.

All of this to show how:

1) EvE markets may be traded almost like the RL ones (with appropriate precautions and adjustments) - which is the very topic of this thread.

2) There's theory and much, much work to do in order to become "fluent" in the less common situations. Still, there are plenty of setups that may be traded within few weeks of practice, usually the ones following the WPD-WPG method I explained in the past months.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#146 - 2012-10-11 18:02:37 UTC
Pax Amarria and how markets remember price levels

Some months ago there was quite of an heated discussion about an item called Pax Amarria. That item would reprocess into Nocxium and Isogen, effectively putting an hard cap on Nocxium prices.
I published some analyses back then, completely not caring about this game issue (at about 535 or so ISK pu). I still don't care.


Of course I got flamed because I did not place who knows which banners and flags.
In particular, people believed that I should have "personally" taken the hard cap into account, cared to know why it was in place and whatsnot.

Back then I replied (like I'd reply today) that no, I don't ever care about why a market does something (I leave that to fundamental analysts), I just don't need to.
Another quite controversial discussion I have been involved with in the past is about the apparently "impossible" fact that markets have a memory and repeat their choices over time.

Now, the "memory effect" is not strictly needed to trade but makes trading way, way easier.
For some reasons price tends to focus on some levels (I don't care why, in RL Forex some times it's because a central bank automatically buys / sells lots of currency past certain thresolds).

At those levels, demand meets supply better than at other prices, over time these levels stick again and again and we can see the consequences (without needing to know the reasons) because in there the candle bars neatly align in a row.
Even removing candle bars and switching to "true price" (line mode), the levels are still visible or even become more evident.
Of course I got objected that stuff like removing Pax Amarria's reprocessing would render that strong price cap / level worthless and never used again.

So, after some months have passed I have taken an updated snapshot of the Nocxium market. And guess what? The Pax Amarria reprocessing price level is still affecting the market.

Some keys for the charts, some are advanced concepts mostly covered in the Italian trading website.

RM = Range Market = when two or more close-ish price swings hit the same price.
RM median = almost all the RMs may be intersected by a median price level. At that level, price reacts. Mostly used for the so called trades money management (i.e. close partial positions).
RM medians are the level around which a statistical "cloud" / gaussian of buyers and sellers are fighting. The winners of the median, win the level and are in good shape to win the RM battle.
Liquidity level = minimum / maximum price where buyers / sellers are ready to compromise to buy / sell stock. On a chart it's shown as "wicks" or "tails" protruding from most candle bars.
Box = A box encasing a RM's bars liquidity levels (aka the candle "wicks").
Box effect = study of the interactions between subsequent boxes.
Weeky chart = minimum EvE time frame where price is very precise (those who have experience with data capture and oversampling know what I talk about). Weekly bars are quite powerful, it takes a LOT of liquidity to form and stop one, they don't form in random places.

Markets are formed by an endless sequence of boxes relating each other => Markets are formed by and endless sequence of range markets connected by trends formed by microscopic other RMs.
I.e. for the fractal nature of the markets, what on a weekly chart looks like a trend up, on the daily may show as sequences of discrete steps each formed by range markets.


Here's the uncluttered version of the Nocxium weekly chart.
Here is the fully "dotted" version of the same.

Key to the elements:

Red line = Pax Amarria reprocess price. By what I stated above, a "cloud" of buyers and sellers fought around it, forming a blue RM, which in turn is in its box.
Blue rectangle = RM whose red line is median.
Bright purple line = upper limit of the box encasing the RM. The lower limit was not drawn, as the liquidity of the bars (the lower tails) overlap with the RM boundary.

Notice that I did not go out and "find" those levels, they just come up by connecting the price bars opens / closes. The effect is also noticeable on the monthly chart, where bars are HUGELY powerful yet they got influenced anyway. Not by random chance, the RM resistance matches a monthly (dark purple) level.

Red dots sitting on the purple line = where price "wicks" aka sellers took liquidity from the market.
Yellow dots sitting on the Pax Amarria median = bars whose liquidity or open / close hit the median itself, factually defining it.

As you can see there are several other "levels", I only put BRNs and monthly levels.
Those levels are other Nocxium important levels, that is special spots where demand perfectly meets supply and thus market "resonates" very well at those spots.
You'll notice how many bars hit those levels within few ISK.
Markets are not 100% exact, expecially the low liquidity EvE ones. They can overshoot / undershoot a price level by some ISK, they are inconsciously driven by a collective of human traders after all.
Barrak
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
#147 - 2012-10-13 17:52:42 UTC
I know I have asked this before, but how do you get your information into candle charts?

(can't find my old question).

Regards

Barrak
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#148 - 2012-10-14 17:10:30 UTC
Barrak wrote:
I know I have asked this before, but how do you get your information into candle charts?

(can't find my old question).

Regards

Barrak


I created my own cache scrapping web page (available on my website) and a script whose output are a series of CSV files ready to be fed to several plaforms.
Sadly the latter is quite complex both to install and operate.

The other way is to save EVEMarketeer OHLC CSV export, it produces the same data (see beginning of this thread, where I and his coder discussed the algorythms).
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#149 - 2012-11-05 23:47:11 UTC  |  Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha
PLEX analysis

Since there's a lot of talking about PLEX both in game and this forum, I thought it could be interesting to post my findings about this market.
Once again I'll use the WPD-WPG method (What Price is Doing - Where Price is Going).


Monthly chart

Screenshot

WPD
After a number of months where price stayed constrained inside a bullish channel (delimited by the red trend lines), a bearish monthly pin bar (PB) has formed. Monthly bars are very powerful and can easily turn the tables. PBs (from "Pinochio Bars") show a very big "tail" or "wick" fooling traders in one direction, while they are a strong signal to the opposite side.
The PB closed below BRN 600 (forming the monthly level @592M).
Closing below a price level is a second sign that buyers are quite exhausted and need a pause at a minimum if not the beginning of trend inversion.
The lack of sellers in the last swing leading to the pin bar gives another sign of weakness. Trends with no pauses, with no "breath" are fragile.
However stopping or inverting a monthly trend is a tremendous effort. The PB size is not a lot bigger than the previous bars, this means there's a chance that it won't be able to immediately invert the trend (also called "direct inversion") with a major, "abrupt" inversion.


Weekly chart

Screenshot

WPD
The weekly chart is concordant with the monthly. In this case we have another (weekly this time) bearish pin bar. This time the bar is quite bigger than the others before it, this means a minor inversion is taking place. Usually pin bars hit price like a stone thrown in water: the stone digs in the water but then the water comes back up and "pops" above its level, creates ripples and so on. Inversion pin bars "ripples" are Range Markets (RMs), that is areas where price just oscillates inside a rectangle for a while before strongly breaking the rectangle and going up or down.

It's indeed possible to see a tight RM (blue) currently being formed.
Both the RM and and the PB don't close above another previous PB (marked with an arrow). That is their bodies stay within the upper "wick" of that PB. Those bars that manage to "cover" the next ones are called "controlling bars" and come with a series of behaviors too long to describe here. Suffice to say that until a bar breaks above them, they "dominate" the next bars. In this case that PB is commanding the whole market to stay within its upper "wick".

Notice that saying "closes below", "closes inside" does not preclude the possibility to see price spiking up and then back down within a week. I.e. if you look at the pin bar, it's body dictates that the market could not go above 592M but its tail goes up to 660M.

What does that mean? This is bound to a fascinating mechanism called "how bars form" that I might cover if people will ask for that. In few words, the wicks represent short "spikes" that form inside a bar. A weekly bar is formed by 5 to 7 (futures RL market vs EvE) daily bars. Daily bars may individually go to 660M and then be countered back to 592M without the weekly bar changing its meaning. Result: the market on the weekly time frame fails to go above 592M despite a day or two we had spikes. The spikes are opportunities to sell very high, the bodies tell the real long term market intentions.

Last market clue: the blue RM formed below BRN 600. Since RMs represent an close battle between buyers and sellers, this means buyers start in disadvantage. When they are even, those RMs happen across the BRN. When buyers are stronger, the RMs happen right above the BRN (this was easy to guess, eh?).


Daily chart

Screenshot

WPG
The daily chart shows another pin bar (that is, all the time frames are concordant = stronger effects) along with the nearby range market in blue. The PB was stopped in its rise by the long term red trend line and it's formed by two bars. Those 2 bar PBs are called 2D PBs (or 2W PB if they are formed by 2 weeks, 2M PB if they are formed by 2 months). The 2 bars effectively cancel each other and their net result is a lone PB. You can experience how it's true by setting a charting software to 2 days time frame: these 2D PBs will show as a "normal" PB.
Now, that PB is also much larger than the previous swing bars and there are no seller (= red) bars in the last swing before it => trend inversion pin bar.

Where price is going?

Once again I'll disappoint those who believe I can see the future. (Profitable) Trading is reactive, that is it relies on seeing "triggers" happen first, and then setting up the actual trade after.
In this case, there is a buyers vs sellers battle below BRN 600 (as said above). Who wins the RM wins the BRN and decides the next market direction.
If buyers win they will bring price above BRN 600. IF a second PB will form (prolly at close to Christmas) then we will see a so called "double top", a very strong inversion pattern (once confirmed). I aptly dimmed such second PB / 2D PB because it's impossible to know if it will come or not. If it won't form, price will keep slowly rising for a while inside the red trend lines until it will abruptly fall.

On the contrary, if sellers win, price will possibly hit the next swing (see grey dashed line) and may (or may not) rebound to the bottom of the RM. In RL trading, only in case the rebound happens, then it's possible to go short exactly at the level of the rebound itself.

What to do now? Well you can buy at 570 and sell at 592M till the RM breaks. Only then the price will do what I typed above.

Hope I was not too much confusing, I understand it's exceedingly hard to pack tons of concepts in one post.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#150 - 2012-11-11 23:15:44 UTC
Megacyte

Tomorrow I will post a similar analysis for Zydrine.
In fact there are many wondering what's going on with these minerals, that "mysteriously" are rising in value.

Well, mysteriously only if you are playing mind games, wondering about what patch note or what fundamentals are affecting them.

But alas, here we don't use those things.


First of all the proof of concept: three screenshots of *some* of my Megacyte and Zydrine purchases proving I put money where my mouth is:

Purchase 1
Purchase 2
Purchase 3


As I always say, this is a very relaxed way to trade. Buy today (possibly directly off sell orders), sell weeks later (possibly dumping to buy orders).
Compare with these days prices. Despite the very relaxed way to trade, I pocketed 20-25% of about 30B in one month. It's not bad after all, eh?

Of course this is not something that happens all the time. This is one of the two good times of the year and this is why I wanted to start the funds so fast: to try catch price on the rise before it's gone home.

In the next stop, the full trading plan from the buy to the next sales to the future sales (aka take profits).
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#151 - 2012-11-11 23:57:22 UTC  |  Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Megacyte

Monthly chart

What price is doing
Please refer to this screenshot to see the commented chart.

A massively large triangle formed in 2009. Triangles are momentum accumulating patterns so when it broke upwards (see the screenshot) it created some powerful upwards reaction.

Price tanked afterwards and formed a monthly "doji" / "spinning top" bar (an indecision bar where buyers and sellers fight a lot).
Very often those bars become controlling bars.
Sadly I have not room to explain them here, it'd take hours. Suffice to say controlling bars affect the next bars that close within their height and decide their target (that is where they go ending up at).

Being bearish, it commanded price to hit its minimum as first target. Price continued past the bar minimum and formed two mutually cancelling bars that together form a 2 Months pin bar. For 2 Month / week / day pin bars theory please refer to the previous posts.

The first target for a (bullish in this case as the second bar is green) in trend pin bar (conter trend often don't) is the maximum of the previous 2 bars. This first target as you can see has been almost hit.


Weekly chart

What price is doing
The weekly chart is a mine of market knowledge. Here's the screenshot.

First of all, at first sight it's evident how Megacyte is one of those markets that closely observes Big Round Numbers (BRN). This is helps at making analysis easy.

We can still see the triangle. Where its sides meet (the apex) is almost in confluence (i.e. multiple clues at one price) with BRN 2500 (2550 to be precise). That's a sensible point, where buyers and seller fight the hardest, the topic equilibrium level between demand and supply. Once price gets there it may exhibit erratic and violent reactions and even heavy retracements or inversions.
As you can see, price is not very far off that point and it is the first take profit level (that is, positions are partially closed and profit taken).
At the moment price hit 2400 (weekly level and also Round Number - that is a weaker BRN). This is not a random thing, if you look at the "rectangle" (not drawn) of bars to the left of the current circled pin bar you can see none of them closes above 2400. That's a nice resistance, expecially since it's weekly (thus stronger than the daily chart). Those rectangles are called Range Markets, because price moves up and down in an apparent random oscillation.

If price will manage to get to 2550 and break this sensible place then another powerful Range Market (drawn in blue, to the left) will influence it. See 1) on the chart.
Not randomly at all, the base or support of that rectangle sits exactly at 2550, yes the pivotal Megacyte equilibrium level really impacts on this market.
2) As I was saying, if price gets to this RM and enters it, then it will quickly hit its median line (another concept I am sorry I can't explain here, it's not essential to know but gives nice clues) where we have to perform money management. Money management in this specific case means looking at how price "looks like" and possibly partially close the position.
Passed the median, price will go to the RM resistance (upper side).
The RM resistance, marked as 3) on the chart, is the second take profit.
Not randomly at all, the RM resistance is exactly a spot where a price swing touched the triangle upper side. Triangles swings are all intermediate take profits.
The next take profit (if price gets there) is the top of the Dec 2011 range market (see all those bars forming a rectangle, even if I did not mark it). The next target (if price gets there) is the other spot the triangle hits the trend line, which not randomly at all matches BRN 3500.
The last target (unlikely price will go there but...) is RN 3700, that is the body of those bars that reached the highest price.

This is my plan.

Plan the trade and then trade the plan.


Daily chart

Where Price is Going
The daily chart is less juicy (the weekly tends to be the "tactical view") but it's where the actual trade entry points are to be found. Here's the screenshot.

I have drawn a descending trend line that marks where price begins to invert its previous downtrend. Once bars break it and form the usual "W shaped" double bottom (another way to invert trend along with pin bars and others) we start seeking for price action which triggers the trade. A BUOB and then a (circled) PB formed and broke the trend line.
While in RL trading one should NOT buy right there (need retracement for confirmed double bottom first), in EvE price tends to run away so fast - due to low markets liquidity - that we need to risk.
Now, while low liquidity imposes this risk, it also offer a reward: the very act of buying large amount of illiquid markets items causes the market itself to rise and helps giving the up-trend kick start we need.

Once opened the position we... forget trading and let the plan trade itself.

The chart does not need a lot of additional explanations, I just put some arrows (could put many more) to point at how often Megacyte precisely honors Big Round Numbers.
Shiv Katall
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#152 - 2012-11-13 05:24:22 UTC
You are talking about applying real life economics into EVE online.

If you are serious then you should realize that price fluctuations up/down directly influence and indirectly influence everything within a chain.

Lets take a real world look at this then. Sorry I dont have candle bars or screenshots for you.

Take the price of gas. To a farmer in the midwest of the US that affects his entire business. Because that extra money then gets put off thru the entire chain of his economic business structure. From tractor fuel, fertilizer, planting, maintaining the fields, harvesting, shipping to the grocer, to the consumer, to how the consumer now has to budget their paycheck to make sure that they can afford the extra cost that is put on them by purchasing the produce.

Which means that they end up paying less on manufactured goods that boosts an economy. Now if it was reversed and price falls, that means that there is more profit to be made. So the farmer hires more hands to work the fields, he buys more land, or others jump in because $$ is to be made. Eventually it becomes too saturated.

The amount of people that are affected by just that one example is a vast amount. That has direct correlation regardless if you are buying/selling.

Saying that you are not concerned about price going up or down is a silly statement when the price of one item going up or down is directly relevant to other fluctuations in the market.

Next time I will include screenshots for you to help make it simpler if needed.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#153 - 2012-11-13 09:13:38 UTC
Shiv Katall wrote:
You are talking about applying real life economics into EVE online.


and

Shiv Katall wrote:
Next time I will include screenshots for you to help make it simpler if needed.


Here are my screenshots.
I am not talking, I am doing. It's now years that not only I apply real life economics into EvE online, but I also apply EvE economics to real life.

Here are some proofs with screenshots, taken from Forex:

AUDCAD analysis posted in an Italian forum (see the writings language) on Oct 29.
AUDCAD price today.

EURCAD trade analysis and orders placed on the platform, posted on Oct 24.
EURCAD update
EURCAD last update and second take profit

CADCHF orders placed on the platform. Pin bars are some of my money makers.
CADCHF update, first profit taken, close to second take profit already.

EURJPY orders placed on the platform.
EURJPY update after the first take profit. The second TP did not get hit.

EURJPY Nov 7 trade, order placed on the platform.
EURJPY trade update, going for take profit.
I did not bother posting the trade close at the time, so I am posting a screenshot taken minutes ago that shows how price hit the target.


Shiv Katall wrote:

If you are serious then you should realize that price fluctuations up/down directly influence and indirectly influence everything within a chain.

Lets take a real world look at this then. Sorry I dont have candle bars or screenshots for you.

Take the price of gas. To a farmer in the midwest of the US that affects his entire business. Because that extra money then gets put off thru the entire chain of his economic business structure. From tractor fuel, fertilizer, planting, maintaining the fields, harvesting, shipping to the grocer, to the consumer, to how the consumer now has to budget their paycheck to make sure that they can afford the extra cost that is put on them by purchasing the produce.

Which means that they end up paying less on manufactured goods that boosts an economy. Now if it was reversed and price falls, that means that there is more profit to be made. So the farmer hires more hands to work the fields, he buys more land, or others jump in because $$ is to be made. Eventually it becomes too saturated.

The amount of people that are affected by just that one example is a vast amount. That has direct correlation regardless if you are buying/selling.

Saying that you are not concerned about price going up or down is a silly statement when the price of one item going up or down is directly relevant to other fluctuations in the market.


I am not concerned: neither whether price goes up or down nor about why.
I know that something important happened in the past (supports / resistances) but I don't care about what it was, just that it happened and it might happen again.
I know that price, for its reasons I don't care to know, may go up or down and I plan for both cases (the "price could go up or down or sideways" that corestwo finds funny).
The plan also involves deciding whether to accept one of its branches. IE if I see a good risk : reward for going long and a bad one for going short, and the short case happens then I just stay out.

That's all of it.
Have the farmer do his life, have price do its life.
Fundamental analysts - often employed by large funds / institutions - will study the farmer's life and how to profit off it.
Price action analysts - often employed by hedge funds or working alone - will study the price's life and how to profit off it.

Fundamental analysts tend to make more money on the long run and more long lasting business since they are the so called "most informed traders" (see profit relation with information asymmetry). The others earn less but have to involve enormously smaller effort and resources in research.

Bringing the concept in EvE, corestwo studies, knows in great depth and makes / manipulates some markets on a grand scale and thus is the informed, fundamental trader.
I am the (not so small) independent trader and hedge fund manager who easily hops across 100 markets on a smaller scale and thus is a less informed trader. I am still classed as informed, see Larry Harris fundamental book on markets microstructure.
Shiv Katall
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#154 - 2012-11-13 13:42:17 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:


I am not concerned: neither whether price goes up or down nor about why.
I know that something important happened in the past (supports / resistances) but I don't care about what it was, just that it happened and it might happen again.
I know that price, for its reasons I don't care to know, may go up or down and I plan for both cases (the "price could go up or down or sideways" that corestwo finds funny).
The plan also involves deciding whether to accept one of its branches. IE if I see a good risk : reward for going long and a bad one for going short, and the short case happens then I just stay out.





That is why you will never be Corestwo. And this is why anyone who is serious about markets is taking what you say as drivel.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#155 - 2012-11-13 18:27:27 UTC  |  Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Shiv Katall wrote:

That is why you will never be Corestwo. And this is why anyone who is serious about markets is taking what you say as drivel.


I cannot, nor I want to be Corestwo.
I want to check a market I don't know anything about for 10 minutes and then place a trade and earn 10-30% autopilot profit.

It's a preference, not "drivel".

Also, the only reason I trade (I could stop doing anything and pay sub with PLEXes for years) is because it keeps me trained for RL, for me EvE trading is training.

Finally, you skipped completely the RL trades examples, which after all is what I care about (that is, to make RL money).
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#156 - 2012-11-13 23:49:27 UTC  |  Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Zydrine

Bought it in the same days I bought Megacyte. The monthly graphs are similar enough: inversion 2 months pin bar (2M PB).


Monthly chart

What price is doing
Screenshot.

In a bearish trend, a bullish 2M PB formed. Its first target (as explained in the Megacyte analysis) is the price at the high of the 2nd bar before it (indicated as 2M PB first target).
In fact the next bar hit that target, which coincides with BRN 900, and the first take profit has been taken.
If price will behave like it did in the past and goes above 900, it could go to BRN 1000 before forming a RM.


Weekly chart

What price is doing
Screenshot.

Price is in an uptrend with no sellers. Lack of down swings makes the trend weaker and to go hyperbolic (the more a trend grows vertical the less it can go on before crashing).
At the end of the last week, the bar closed below BRN 900, another sign of weakness.


Daily chart

Where price is going
Screenshot. (*)

The scenario is as the weekly chart hinted. Price is steadily rising. At first the buyers are so strong that price gets confined inside a smooth bullish channel. At a certain point (November) the lack of sellers makes the price go vertical. It goes so steep that it breaks the bullish channel but then the inevitable happens: the trend gets fragile and crashes against BRN 900 forming one top. Buyers try again but fail (second top) and panic.
Top + second top = range market (RM) called double top (duh) which is a strong inversion pattern.
It brings price back inside the bullish channel. The first target of the double top (like any RM) is its projected height, therefore price will want to go down and hit the purple monthly level at 820 (**). However until price actually breaks out of the RM, the double top is confirmed but the inversion is not. If it will break and confirm the inversion then 820 is the next target.
Another clue about price wanting to retrace down is the general rule that says: "when price re-enters a RM (bullish channel in this case) the old support and resistance encasing that RM become again current support and resistance. The current support is at the lower trend line, wich at the moment would mean hitting the 820 level.

Price is like a flipper ball: it hits boundaries formed by supply and demand dynamics, the stronger and the more they are the more price reacts. In this case it will try hard to hit 820 in confluence with the bullish channel trend line and bounce up. If it does then the next target is BRN 900 again. If it fails then close all the positions.


(*) Yes it is a long blurb because I want to detail the exact mental process that involves observing the clues and details that price graciously gives. With practice, all of that involves a glance to the screen.
(**) Indicated prices, due to how EvE saves data, are not taken from minimum sell or maximum buy but from the buy + sell averages of the whole The Forge region.
Vadane Deninard
The Scope
Gallente Federation
#157 - 2012-11-14 09:22:08 UTC
I'm not sure what kind of hating between you guys is going on here and I'm actually not interested to interfere. It just astounds me that someone is doing something for the community for free and receives some serious head wind.

I'm not an expert in RL trading but from what I know, technical analysis is of course sometimes viewed as a "cheap" way to look at the markets and that its certainly not the best idea to base your trades on tech anaylsis only. Fundamental analysis (i.e. understanding on what is really going on on the markets and why) is more important - but IIRC, VV was stressing that in his OP.

I'm not even sure if thats the point of his "adversaries" or if they just want to point out: "usuuug!"

Anyway, I hope VV you dont get discouraged by such comments and keep doing your stuff.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#158 - 2012-11-14 10:55:03 UTC
Vadane Deninard wrote:
I'm not sure what kind of hating between you guys is going on here and I'm actually not interested to interfere. It just astounds me that someone is doing something for the community for free and receives some serious head wind.

I'm not an expert in RL trading but from what I know, technical analysis is of course sometimes viewed as a "cheap" way to look at the markets and that its certainly not the best idea to base your trades on tech anaylsis only. Fundamental analysis (i.e. understanding on what is really going on on the markets and why) is more important - but IIRC, VV was stressing that in his OP.

I'm not even sure if thats the point of his "adversaries" or if they just want to point out: "usuuug!"

Anyway, I hope VV you dont get discouraged by such comments and keep doing your stuff.


Thank you for your support, I am preparing a special surprise expecially dedicated to you but also for the numerous supporters of this initiative.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#159 - 2012-11-15 20:53:23 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
Vadane Deninard wrote:
I'm not sure what kind of hating between you guys is going on here and I'm actually not interested to interfere. It just astounds me that someone is doing something for the community for free and receives some serious head wind.

I'm not an expert in RL trading but from what I know, technical analysis is of course sometimes viewed as a "cheap" way to look at the markets and that its certainly not the best idea to base your trades on tech anaylsis only. Fundamental analysis (i.e. understanding on what is really going on on the markets and why) is more important - but IIRC, VV was stressing that in his OP.

I'm not even sure if thats the point of his "adversaries" or if they just want to point out: "usuuug!"

Anyway, I hope VV you dont get discouraged by such comments and keep doing your stuff.


Thank you for your support, I am preparing a special surprise expecially dedicated to you but also for the numerous supporters of this initiative.


And here we go, what you (and others) wanted became true!
Alwar Seko
Viziam
Amarr Empire
#160 - 2012-11-17 13:36:55 UTC
Exelent thread, keep up the good work.

Applying stuff from this to my trading alt helped me keep my PvP habit funded more easily Big smile