EVE General Discussion

Dont bring me into your "mathematical arguement", thats not what i posted about

And no, when something is guaranteed, its not a risk.. in mathematical terms its a known outcome, a constant value, whatever you want to call it. Your other unknowns in the math constitutes whatever risk you are calculating.

I would have to agree with that risk is chance based. If their is no chance in the equation then it is a measurable and known cost of doing business as every time the outcome can be determined with 100% certainty.

or just don't stick over 1bn in your cargo hold because most gankers won't even bother trying to pop your freighter for that little potential reward.

especially if it's 1bn isk worth of trit.

What do actual gankers think of the risk of freighter ganking? "You know what you could win, you just don't know what you will win. Our guys do this because they make money every gank and they get free ships to gank with. They don't have to rat, mission, or otherwise carebear for income."--powers, 2nd in command at Miniluv

Making money every gank, sounds like we can ditch the technical definition of risk and just use the commonsense definition for profit. Gain - cost. Short and sweet.

Snipped continued discussion of a moderated post - CCP Eterne

…except for the whole probability part that plays into both of those, which leaves all three rather inadequate and which pushes the entire thing riiiight into the comfort zone of risk calculations. The reason the miniluv guys make money on every gank is because they have full insight into and manage those risks to the point where the likelihood of a negative outcome is utterly minuscule (courtesy of the poor risk management of the haulers).

Managed risks ≠ no risk.

sure. but then you're making some rather dangerous assumptions.

for example, you're assuming there's no logi about to drop out of warp and rep the freighter, or some other type of escort. mayhaps a wartarget appears on grid to ruin your day.

even if you know that the cost of their cargo is greater than the costs of the ships to gank the freighter, they are not the only variables you must consider.

no matter what you do in eve, there is always a chance some one is about to land on grid with you and **** up your day. always. sure that risk might be tiny, but it's always there.

i am willing to wager good isk that if you asked most freighter pilots, the majority wouldn't know what double wrapping is. not unless hauling is their primary activity in eve or they're active on the forums. the regular freighter pilots that don't fly for places like push/red frog etc or frequent the forums are probably the majority (i'd put money on that).

so yes, any thing double wrapped is generally worth ganking. even sending 3 freighters and only one of them having cargo in would just result in 3 freighter ganks. (i'd put good isk on that, too).

however, if you have 66bn isk to haul, i think at that point you're a fool if you try and haul it yourself. the time it takes to haul it safely is too great an opportunity cost to do it yourself, and the risk of hauling it all at once is far, far too high. at that point i'd just outsource it. i'd gladly pay red frog/push to take it 1bn isk at a time, they have a whole fleet of freighters who will do those 66 1bn isk trips in the time it'd take you to do a fraction of those trips. also the cost they ask is arguably nothing in comparison to the fact that you have 66bn isk of assets sitting in a hangar some where.

it doesn't really make sense on any level to try and haul that much stuff yourself.

I'm not making "those assumptions", I'm quoting an expert on ganking. I attributed the quote and everything. Sorry to disappoint.

…and then from that quote (I won't say “based on” since there's nothing in it to act as a basis) you make assumptions about how the profits are gained, and then, based on those assumptions, further assume that the risk concept can be rejected and an alternate, simplified model can be used.