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Let's talk about plex, baby

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Nunchuck Norris
#21 - 2011-10-07 16:12:55 UTC
incursion did this , let`s burn it with fire ! Evil

incursion brings too much isk / hour , and everyone and their dog are doing incursions now ... l4 main income source wasn`t isk from the sky , but LP & loot = not money from the sky , it was currency that was changing hands through selling LP modules & loot . The payment for the actual mission in liquid isk was extreme ****** .

Now with 10m at every 5-10 minutes , there is too much isk ingame = 420m plexes
Tesal
#22 - 2011-10-07 19:49:26 UTC  |  Edited by: Tesal
Claire Voyant wrote:
...They are however concerned about short-term shocks caused by CCP action. The case in point was Incursions that brought in a lot of new players who bought GTCs to sell for isk while simultaneously returning learning skill points causing a massive surge of capital skill book purchases and a huge isk sink. If it happens again, CCP plans to temporarily buy up surplus PLEX to support prices and inject isk into the market.


The last thing to do is inject more ISK into the market. The supply and demand is being balanced now by how many people decide to unsub their alts due to the price of PLEX. More ISK being injected into the market will just cause more inflation. The ISK sale temporarily lowered the price of PLEX, with hopes that people would resub their alts probably. People have become accustomed to cheap PLEX and are willing to quit the game if it goes too high. CCP probably wants PLEX to be as cheap as possible.

The best thing CCP can do is inject content or make changes that gets a lot of ships and materials blown up. This would create a need to buy *new* PLEX *from CCP* to replace losses, mostly in 0.0 battles. There isn't a need to sell PLEX to replace ships lost now, too many people are blue in 0.0. Both BoB/IT and the NC are gone, so there are that many fewer people who can challenge the current powers that be and their fleets of SC that dominate the field now. That is why I think they are going to nerf SC hard so that people feel like they have a chance to fight against the big power blocs for a little bit of space. They will buy a PLEX *from CCP* here and there to replace lost cap ships or pay for insurance or other stuff. Balancing capital ships is on the list of upcoming changes in the next patch.
Commander Godsmack
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#23 - 2011-10-09 04:34:38 UTC
ya'll blowing a bunch of hot air. And Quebe this next bit may be horribly offensive to you but you cant gag me for this:

Elliot wave Theory
Trends

PLEX prices are incredibly predictable if you just look at the charts and google the above two concepts


kthxbye
Airto TLA
Acorn's Wonder Bars
#24 - 2011-10-13 18:45:20 UTC
I really have wondered what has caused the rapidly rising Plex prices, since overall most other prices seem to stay in the general range or actually fall, the sellers of plex get a better deal every month, while the buyers get a worse deal (more stuff sold to get the same amount of money, then more to buy the higher priced plex). So what has impacted PLex price recently:


1. The charity events PLex (for some disater) this should have raised Plex price, but had minotr impacts in the immediate time.

2. THe Plex buy 11 get one free sale, should have increased PLEX supply and lowered prices.

3. The world ecomomy is bad, less people willing to spend outside cash for isk, more people willing to sell isk for more play time. This should increase the price of Plex. Basically the intrisic cost of free time wasted has fallen, the fun budgets have decreased and


4. Incursions - free isk - the incursion runners and their 10+ billion income have both increased demand and decreased supply potentially (for example PVPer/part time Missioneer. Plays 80 hrs per month 30 hr missioning @30mil expends 1.2 bil in ships and general expenses. Net negative 300 mil, needs to buy a plex per month to cover, Now 20 hr per month Incusioning @100 per 1.5 bil spent, 500 mil left over and BUYS a plex.

5. Something else, what you think?

I think 3 and 4 overwhelm the impact of 1 and 2, and I think alts like this one are soon to be retired, since I do not really benefit much from 4 and I am defintitly impacted by 3.
Diomedes Calypso
Aetolian Armada
#25 - 2011-10-13 20:33:02 UTC
Ave Volta wrote:
My line of reasoning, which I didn't really spell out, was essentially what Claire said.

Seems to me PLEX could go a bit higher still to achieve the optimal equalibrium that CCP would desire. Maximizing the attractiveness of converting cash to PLEX while not going so far as to turn of buyers of PLEX for game time.

I mean, with the massive amounts of isk floating around, idle or otherwise, I would think PLEX could go up a decent amount before people start to deactivte alts. But maybe I'm wrong.

/edit typo



carrying on with your thoughts and countering some reactionary free marketers who things a better value means more sales by definition.

- if you run a pay to play company, you'r going to set virtual currency sale prices based upon the scarcity and utility of goods you offer....and try to do so in a way that creates the maximum $ revenue.

- If people can buy sought after goods for a lower price they could very conceivably buy less currency because their needs were satisfied.

- balancing that is a fine line.... but lower prices don't even necessarily mean more total $ volume if game design needs let cash buys get what they needed for less.

Value isn't the driving force in the purchase decision for a great great many businesses far beyond oddities of virutal worlds and games.

Abercrombie and Fitch, or Tiffany's sell fine products better than most in their fields yet how much of mark up they can get on items owes a large part to the image and allure of exclusivity they've built around them.

Prices for plex could very well settle at a price where only peopel with piles of isk play and the first squeezed out of the market were people begining to get interested in the game and still paying cash for some accounts but losing interest if they couldn't fun another account with game play. Those people quitting means less people doing word of mouth marketing that brings in plex> isk sellers.

--- changes in game play like the pending nerf of super carriers could mean that the small handfull of people speding real money to sell plex to buy one dry's up.... and one or two of those people means hundreds of plex that would have hit the market but don't ... and make an equilibrium move without any consideration of the value of plex but the desire for a super.

.
Diomedes Calypso
Aetolian Armada
#26 - 2011-10-13 20:48:10 UTC
Volume in The Forge looks very steady over the course of the year.


Volume doesn't tell us anything that we can be sure of other than that does make it less likely that there are less people looking to sell $>plex>isk at this point.

It is true that we could conceivably be having the inventory of player held plex reduced in number to pretty much exactly match past volume but given that I could see equal numbers of people seeing the price rise when they've lost interest in the game, wanting to hold plex rather than isk during their hiatus.

Looking at things independently I'd think inventories would tend to stay the same so that a consistant volume means basically even numbers of people doing the $>plex> isk thing.

My best guess would be that more people who had stores of isk but were also buying game time monthly (and never needing to sell it.. just use it) have decided to stop paying $ and pay isk.

They have displaced people who aren't really sure of whether they want to keep an account active as the price goes higher.


Thats my guess though... same general profile bringing the plex to market.. slightly different profile of the group buying them thats letting the price rise.

.
Sortin Crendraven
Overlord Corp
#27 - 2011-10-13 22:35:32 UTC
Zeta Zhul wrote:
Comy 1 wrote:
CCP should add docking fees to NPC stations based on standings, best ISK sink ever.


Or add fuel to the game. E.g. you get the listed PG & Cap with no fuel use. Install a power generator mod (new) and put fuel in the cargo hold and you get improved PG & Cap. But it costs you fuel and cargo capacity.

Increased fuel cost is an isk sink plus the creation of fuel adds to PI and ice mining. It will also tend to make ships more effective & cost efficient in their home areas as those will be the natural sources and markets for their racial ship fuels.

I was very surprised there wasn't any fuel requirement when I started the game. Ships should require fuel in a fuel bay just like a POS, except of course it'd only get used when you're flying. Infinite fuel from nowhere is convenient, though.
Lithalnas
Dirt 'n' Glitter
Local Is Primary
#28 - 2011-10-15 02:07:37 UTC
apparently CCP is putting out another plex deal to try and deflate the isk value of PLEX by oversupply

classy CCP, classy

QPE 2 anyone?

https://www.facebook.com/RipSeanVileRatSmith shoot at blue for Vile Rat http://community.eveonline.com/devblog.asp?a=blog&nbid=73406
DeliaPrescot
Balintol
#29 - 2011-10-15 11:02:48 UTC
I'm torn on this, i still weep tears thinking about how poor i was when the PLEX price was about 250m two years ago. I invested all my cash i had into PLEX back then and the return is obscene but still i wish i had some more extra billions.
Today is different cash is no problem, so if the PLEX ever is falling i know what i will do and you don't need to guess that i'm not alone. CCP can slow down the upward spiral on PLEX prices with such offers like the 200$ one but can't stop it without heavy interfering and as result crashing the PLEX market. The more often CCP offers bulk buying PLEX the less the market will react until this instrument won't work anymore. Anyway i'm just sitting here hoping and waiting for a crash caused by CCP as this is the only way PLEX prices will be at 300m or lower ever again.
Still predicting PLEX prices about 500m around Christmas.
Endeavour Starfleet
#30 - 2011-10-15 11:14:20 UTC
Lithalnas wrote:
apparently CCP is putting out another plex deal to try and deflate the isk value of PLEX by oversupply

classy CCP, classy

QPE 2 anyone?



If you try to game the PLEX market. Expect CCP to respond period. PLEX has grown active accounts by leaps and bounds and stomped out a fair bit of RMT.

When are folks going to learn. The sweet spot for PLEX is 350-375 or so.
Lexmana
#31 - 2011-10-15 13:57:09 UTC
Incursion introduced an ISK faucet and Incarna a PLEX sink. Together they should push the price upwards.
Claire Voyant
#32 - 2011-10-15 15:09:51 UTC
Endeavour Starfleet wrote:
If you try to game the PLEX market. Expect CCP to respond period. PLEX has grown active accounts by leaps and bounds and stomped out a fair bit of RMT.

When are folks going to learn. The sweet spot for PLEX is 350-375 or so.

So how high do PLEX prices have to go to convince you that you are wrong and that CCP doesn't give a damn about how high they are?

Hint: the people who actually pay money to CCP are quite happy to see PLEX prices in the stratosphere. You may b!tch and moan all you want, but you are merely a consumer of PLEX. As long as someone else is willing to pay the market rate, CCP doesn't care who buys them.

Is the board of Nike concerned that people pay $120 for their worthless shoes? As long as people keep buying them, they are happy. It's when they stop buying them, that they get concerned. Likewise CCP only worries when PLEX prices fall too low.

Sweet spot my ass! It's what the market will bear.
Tasko Pal
Spallated Garniferous Schist
#33 - 2011-10-15 16:32:56 UTC
Claire Voyant wrote:


So how high do PLEX prices have to go to convince you that you are wrong and that CCP doesn't give a damn about how high they are?


I'd say it'd have to near 1 billion or so. Given that they suddenly came up with a PLEX deal when PLEX threatened to hit 450 (and this is the second time they've done so, I might add), they really don't want PLEX too expensive.

My view now is that given current game dynamics PLEX is going to rise to higher levels, but this is despite CCP wishes. If they adjust isk faucets/sinks so that isk creation is reduced or consumption increased, then they can stabilize PLEX around current levels. The current sort of strategy (offering deals on PLEX to increase PLEX supply) just doesn't work in the long term (all they're doing is reducing the average price of PLEX and that's limited by the constraint to make PLEX more expensive than the monthly fee for keeping an account open).
Endeavour Starfleet
#34 - 2011-10-15 19:03:52 UTC
Claire you might note that CCP reintroduced the deal and brought PLEX prices down again. CCP apparently does give a damn. Or atleast glad for the excuse to to get a bunch of money in the door. Either way PLEX wont keep building the way the speculators want.

That is what speculation is about. You are betting that increased supply wont OMGpwn you in the markets like say RL opening up of oil reserves.

PLEX isn't a good idea to game.
Claire Voyant
#35 - 2011-10-16 02:48:52 UTC
Tasko Pal wrote:
Given that they suddenly came up with a PLEX deal when PLEX threatened to hit 450 (and this is the second time they've done so, I might add), they really don't want PLEX too expensive.

That is not the only explanation. Obviously when they run a volume discount deal, they expect to get a bunch of people buying large chunks of PLEX and putting them on the market. This can't help but depress PLEX prices. The problem is assuming that this is the motivation for the promotion. In actuality, the promotion is run by the marketing department in order to increase revenue from PLEX sales. The important point is to realize that they wait until PLEX prices are high so they can run the promotion without crashing PLEX prices too much in the process.

You could argue that this amounts to the same thing. If the marketing department has been given instructions not to run PLEX promotions unless the price of PLEX is over a certain level, then the Marketing people will probably pretty much just take the liberty to do so whenever that point is hit and it would amount to the same thing as a PLEX price target.

But that is not the only way this could work. The criteria could involve a rising price target. It might only kick in if the price goes a certain amount higher than it did before the previous promotion. Or it could be determined by the actual volume of PLEX purchased from CCP and promotions might only be run during slack periods when sales are low in order to smooth out the revenue stream.

I think the way to settle this is to see what happens in the next month or so. If the past is any guide, PLEX prices should peak in mid-November at around 440-450 million isk. I also think CCP will avoid PLEX promotions immediately before the usual pre-expansion rush because it will just cost them sales. I think if there are no promotions during the entire month of November AND PLEX tops out at at least 440 during the month then it is safe to say that the Marketing Department has not just been given a price target.
Diomedes Calypso
Aetolian Armada
#36 - 2011-10-16 10:24:32 UTC
Claire Voyant wrote:
Endeavour Starfleet wrote:
If you try to game the PLEX market. Expect CCP to respond period. PLEX has grown active accounts by leaps and bounds and stomped out a fair bit of RMT.

When are folks going to learn. The sweet spot for PLEX is 350-375 or so.

So how high do PLEX prices have to go to convince you that you are wrong and that CCP doesn't give a damn about how high they are?

Hint: the people who actually pay money to CCP are quite happy to see PLEX prices in the stratosphere. You may b!tch and moan all you want, but you are merely a consumer of PLEX. As long as someone else is willing to pay the market rate, CCP doesn't care who buys them.

Is the board of Nike concerned that people pay $120 for their worthless shoes? As long as people keep buying them, they are happy. It's when they stop buying them, that they get concerned. Likewise CCP only worries when PLEX prices fall too low.

Sweet spot my ass! It's what the market will bear.


You got the Nike thing backwards

CCP wants to sell the maximum plex possible.. fair deal capitalism.... they get less money per isk purchased if prices for plex in isk go UP..

There are a lot of cross currents and other motivations in terms of retaining players etc that are also valuble. but

a 120$ of shoes is 200 million per plex, a 90 dollar pair of shoes is 300 million and a 60$ pair of shoes is 400 million... the higher the isk it takes to buy a plex.. the less real life money CCP gets from people using $ to buy a loki.

like I said there are other factors.. but as long as you brought up the tennis shoes.. might as well get that part sorted out

.
Claire Voyant
#37 - 2011-10-16 10:58:31 UTC
Diomedes Calypso wrote:
You got the Nike thing backwards

CCP wants to sell the maximum plex possible.. fair deal capitalism.... they get less money per isk purchased if prices for plex in isk go UP..

There are a lot of cross currents and other motivations in terms of retaining players etc that are also valuble. but

a 120$ of shoes is 200 million per plex, a 90 dollar pair of shoes is 300 million and a 60$ pair of shoes is 400 million... the higher the isk it takes to buy a plex.. the less real life money CCP gets from people using $ to buy a loki.

like I said there are other factors.. but as long as you brought up the tennis shoes.. might as well get that part sorted out

That would be true if demand was inelastic (not price sensitive), if there was no competition, and if people were forced to play Eve and buy isk. You imply that CCP should maximize the amount of RL dollars people need to pay to buy a single loki, when in fact what CCP wants to do is maximize the amount of RL dollars people pay them (CCP) in order to buy lokis (however many they want) and all the other crap they need.
IceFyre S18
Zulu Labs
#38 - 2011-10-16 11:31:47 UTC
Let's sum it up

CCP wants dolla from PLEX sale, either doing a promotions or leaving PLEX to raise to 1B. RL $ is really what it counts, unless somebody have forgotten what the business is.

People have no problem buying 500M or 800M isk PLEX to play.

Seeing volumes of PLEX sale in Jita constantly raising over a year, seems to me that price is nowhere to go except up.

Unless CCP make good expansion and bring alot of new players; that is 6-9 months of dedicated and good work on EVE.
Maybe next year, for now, PLEX up.
IceFyre S18
Zulu Labs
#39 - 2011-10-16 11:52:16 UTC
Oh yes, fixing game issues, where curent focus is, means nothing to new, RL $ paying players.
Means for older player base, they buy PLEX from market.
+1 for PLEX up.
Tasko Pal
Spallated Garniferous Schist
#40 - 2011-10-16 17:45:55 UTC
IceFyre S18 wrote:


People have no problem buying 500M or 800M isk PLEX to play.


Why would you think that? People with multiple accounts are likely to cut back. For example, if someone has 10 alts mining ice at, say, 10 mil per hour, then they'd have to mine for 40 more hours before they could make up the new higher cost of maintaining that many alts.

And people who don't earn large amounts of isk either through grind or investment probably won't be interested in working a bunch more hours merely to maintain their current wealth.