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Market history data distortions not factual data use with caution.

Author
Herr Hammer Draken
#1 - 2012-08-31 23:09:06 UTC
I have noticed that market history is inaccurate.
I had a sale of a item in a region listed in my wallet on a certain date.
I went to check the market data for that item.
The market data listed only 1 of those items sold on that day in that region.
Obviously the low price high price and average price were all the same value as only 1 item sold on that day in that region.
Wrong!!! The price listed was not the price I sold the item at. Nor if I subtract out the tax and broker fees or any combination of those fees can I come up with the value listed in the market history for that day in that region.
If I go to the next day it does not work either as the next day nothing was sold.
Nor the previous day.

So I got curious and looked at some of my other recently sold goods. Oh my sometimes they are right and sometimes wrong.
How can I tell? Well the easiest way is if you have an item or several that have sold for a value higher than the highest listed price in the market history chart for that day in that region. Or if you have a large volume of sales that exceed the volume listed for that day.

So how far off is the data listed in the market history. Well I can account for at least a 10% error rate in both high price and volume data. In 2 different regions.

Herr Hammer Draken "The Amarr Prophet"

Herr Hammer Draken
#2 - 2012-09-01 01:10:20 UTC
I can imagine then where this might go. If the data is inaccurate then can it be manipulated as well?

Herr Hammer Draken "The Amarr Prophet"

Stigman Zuwadza
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#3 - 2012-09-01 01:12:29 UTC
I'm sure I've read somewhere that when the market data is calculated that items that where sold with a high deviation from the norm they are excluded from the calculations. The no. of units might well show but the sell price of the item is not used. Also normally when all 3 prices (min/max/avg) are the same it sometimes means nothing has sold and some kind of average is calculated for that day.

Sooo you might of had the following situation:

You sold an item that wasn't within the norms, it showed the units sold but didn't include the value of the sale and instead calculated an average.

Well anyways, I'm sure its something like that ..but don't quote me. Lol

Fly safe. o7

It's broken and it's been broken for a long time and it'll be broken for some time to come.

Sturmwolke
#4 - 2012-09-01 08:55:04 UTC
Herr Hammer Draken
#5 - 2012-09-01 13:20:12 UTC
Stigman Zuwadza wrote:
I'm sure I've read somewhere that when the market data is calculated that items that where sold with a high deviation from the norm they are excluded from the calculations. The no. of units might well show but the sell price of the item is not used. Also normally when all 3 prices (min/max/avg) are the same it sometimes means nothing has sold and some kind of average is calculated for that day.

Sooo you might of had the following situation:

You sold an item that wasn't within the norms, it showed the units sold but didn't include the value of the sale and instead calculated an average.

Well anyways, I'm sure its something like that ..but don't quote me. Lol

Fly safe. o7


"Items that are sold with a high deviation from the norm are excluded from the calculations."

I have trouble with the definition of a high deviation from the norm. How much is considered a high deviation from the norm?
In my case it was 9.7% higher than the previous sale. If that is considered a high deviation then where is the cutoff?
What is getting excluded from market data? Would you not want to know about sales breaking out above the norm?
Sales within 10% but yet higher than previous get excluded why? How exactly is that serving the markets by excluding that data?

Note I am not talking about sales that are 1000% above the norm. I am talking about breakouts, prices rising within a normal range getting excluded from the data.

Herr Hammer Draken "The Amarr Prophet"

Stigman Zuwadza
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#6 - 2012-09-01 14:51:01 UTC  |  Edited by: Stigman Zuwadza
I said don't quote me! Big smile

Quick question though, do you get the regional price warning about the item being above / below the regional price?

This is all guess work but I notice that when I seed items in 0.0 that I get ridiculous warnings with +/- 1000000's of % from the regional, however the price is the regular price.

It may be the norm values are from eons ago and anything that is currently seeded is way way off an old calculated norm. It might be that you'll have to seed that item for a while to kick start newer more accurate data.

But of course ....I'm just guessing. Lol

Fly safe. o7

It's broken and it's been broken for a long time and it'll be broken for some time to come.

Herr Hammer Draken
#7 - 2012-09-01 16:24:58 UTC
Stigman Zuwadza wrote:
I said don't quote me! Big smile

Quick question though, do you get the regional price warning about the item being above / below the regional price?

This is all guess work but I notice that when I seed items in 0.0 that I get ridiculous warnings with +/- 1000000's of % from the regional, however the price is the regular price.

It may be the norm values are from eons ago and anything that is currently seeded is way way off an old calculated norm. It might be that you'll have to seed that item for a while to kick start newer more accurate data.

But of course ....I'm just guessing. Lol

Fly safe. o7


No I did not get that warning. I was selling a noctis in high sec. The region has sales that average about 30/month.
But not 1 a day, some days 2 or 3 sell some days none. My price was not the highest of the month but the highest in the last 4 days by less than 10%. The sale range is from 63M to 87M mine sold at 78M. The average is 76M for the month. This is recorded data not my own and if my data is missing from the record then how many others are missing from the record and then what is the real range of the sales of noctis?
Unknown is my real answer I can only give you data that the game reports. And I am questioning the accuracy of that.
Again on the day I sold a noctis one sale was recorded but it was not mine. It was sold at some 9+% less than my sale was. Very odd behavior of the market history chart. IMHO it makes the data on it almost useless. Because if my sale was not recorded then how many others where not recorded either? Yet one was recorded. And others have been recorded as high as 87M yet mine was not at 78M so why????

And now I wonder if 30/month is accurate for a sale rate? How many are not being recorded one a day more than one a day?
And that is just one region in high sec. Like I said I have recorded problems in two different regions. SO how bad is this and what is the extent of it?

Herr Hammer Draken "The Amarr Prophet"

Stigman Zuwadza
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#8 - 2012-09-01 17:02:48 UTC
I'm out of ideas ....maybe some black space magic is afoot. Blink

If you do discover whats up then post your findings.

Fly safe. o7

It's broken and it's been broken for a long time and it'll be broken for some time to come.

Sun Win
#9 - 2012-09-02 09:14:09 UTC
This would be a much more useful post if you provided examples, or screenshots or anything that demonstrated the problem you are seeing…
Herr Hammer Draken
#10 - 2012-09-02 14:11:15 UTC
Sun Win wrote:
This would be a much more useful post if you provided examples, or screenshots or anything that demonstrated the problem you are seeing…


That is not going to happen on a public forum for obvious reasons.

Have you started tracking your own sales to verify the market history for yourself or are you going to rely upon other people to do it for you?

Herr Hammer Draken "The Amarr Prophet"

Methesda
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#11 - 2012-09-04 02:52:33 UTC
Herr Hammer Draken wrote:


That is not going to happen on a public forum for obvious reasons.

Have you started tracking your own sales to verify the market history for yourself or are you going to rely upon other people to do it for you?


Hostility and non compliance will get you nowhere. I see no reason for you not to give us one example of your sales if you want people to work out what happened. Otherwise, we can only give you conjecture.

Given that there are many people who use the figures extensively, from API queries, in their own calculations, I think that someone would have cried foul if there where errors a long time ago. What's more likely, is that there is something going on here that you don't understand, like a rolling average for high's and lows' to smooth out the bumps of people who put up speculative, but unrealistic orders.

Eve is about the journey.  If you are so focused on making money, that you insist on having the tools to make it be made as autonomous and easy as possible, then you are never going to have as much fun as I will.

Sun Win
#12 - 2012-09-04 15:59:53 UTC  |  Edited by: Sun Win
Herr Hammer Draken wrote:
That is not going to happen on a public forum for obvious reasons.


I assure you that your less-than-one-item-per-day secret gold mine is safe from me.
Herr Hammer Draken
#13 - 2012-09-05 21:33:35 UTC
Methesda wrote:
Herr Hammer Draken wrote:


That is not going to happen on a public forum for obvious reasons.

Have you started tracking your own sales to verify the market history for yourself or are you going to rely upon other people to do it for you?


Hostility and non compliance will get you nowhere. I see no reason for you not to give us one example of your sales if you want people to work out what happened. Otherwise, we can only give you conjecture.

Given that there are many people who use the figures extensively, from API queries, in their own calculations, I think that someone would have cried foul if there where errors a long time ago. What's more likely, is that there is something going on here that you don't understand, like a rolling average for high's and lows' to smooth out the bumps of people who put up speculative, but unrealistic orders.


I did not post this looking for help. I posted this as a warning. I do not want or need your conjecture.

CCP is looking into it. They are the only ones that need the data.

Herr Hammer Draken "The Amarr Prophet"