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What's up with Procurer and Retriever hull prices?
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Salpad
Carebears with Attitude
#1 - 2012-08-27 00:21:37 UTC
These are still selling at far under production costs, especially in Jita, and especially the Procurer, which as far as I can see sells for less than it used to cost before the 1.2 patch.

Any good explanation for this?
Illest Insurrectionist
Sparta.
#2 - 2012-08-27 00:37:37 UTC
Salpad wrote:
These are still selling at far under production costs, especially in Jita, and especially the Procurer, which as far as I can see sells for less than it used to cost before the 1.2 patch.

Any good explanation for this?


YEa.

https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=146096

https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=141936

TLDR: thousands of cheap prepatch ones.
Salpad
Carebears with Attitude
#3 - 2012-08-27 00:42:40 UTC
Any idea on when the market price will normalize, to make building them at the new BPO/BPC costs at least slightly profitable?

I mean, as I recall it, after the patch there's been a trade volume of a bit over 2000 Procurers sold per day, and a bit under 2000 Retrievers.

Am I reading the graph right? If roughly 15k of each are sold per week, how long can pre-patch hull stocks last? A month? Four months?
Steve Ronuken
Fuzzwork Enterprises
Vote Steve Ronuken for CSM
#4 - 2012-08-27 01:20:17 UTC
A /long/ time. I'd be somewhat surprised to see it hit in a year.

People who were even moderately clued in built thousands (Or to the limit of their finances Sad Takes money to make money). Some people who weren't clued in, just did what they were told by alliance leadership.

It'll be a while till they come out of the oven.

And be careful about using the sales numbers like that. People with isk they can leave in storage will be buying up cheap stock.

Woo! CSM XI!

Fuzzwork Enterprises

Twitter: @fuzzysteve on Twitter
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#5 - 2012-08-27 02:08:14 UTC
What's up with this thread getting posted three times a week? It's like the new "hey guys I got margin trading scammed" thread.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo
Kara Books
Deal with IT.
#6 - 2012-08-27 03:31:04 UTC
corestwo wrote:
What's up with this thread getting posted three times a week? It's like the new "hey guys I got margin trading scammed" thread.


Silly
Illest Insurrectionist
Sparta.
#7 - 2012-08-27 10:08:05 UTC
Salpad wrote:
Any idea on when the market price will normalize, to make building them at the new BPO/BPC costs at least slightly profitable?

I mean, as I recall it, after the patch there's been a trade volume of a bit over 2000 Procurers sold per day, and a bit under 2000 Retrievers.

Am I reading the graph right? If roughly 15k of each are sold per week, how long can pre-patch hull stocks last? A month? Four months?


No real reason to believe they'd ever have to normalize. Someone pre-patch mentioned there were 500 BPOs sold in jita. At 540/per that was ~270,000 ships.

I'm not saying that every BPO was maxed out. But i also don't think there were only 500 BPOs sold for the purpose of using this.

270,000 ships at 30,000 a year makes for a 9 year stock. I say 30,000 year because that would be about 10% of the population buying one. That might even be overly optimistic.
Salpad
Carebears with Attitude
#8 - 2012-08-27 10:23:47 UTC
10% of population does sound optimistic, yes.

What were the pre-patch production costs of barges?
Steve Ronuken
Fuzzwork Enterprises
Vote Steve Ronuken for CSM
#9 - 2012-08-27 11:22:00 UTC
Salpad wrote:
10% of population does sound optimistic, yes.

What were the pre-patch production costs of barges?


around 2.2 million for the procurer, and around 7 million for the retriever.

Yes, that's a 900% return for the procurer.

Woo! CSM XI!

Fuzzwork Enterprises

Twitter: @fuzzysteve on Twitter
Salpad
Carebears with Attitude
#10 - 2012-08-27 13:28:21 UTC
Steve Ronuken wrote:
Salpad wrote:
10% of population does sound optimistic, yes.

What were the pre-patch production costs of barges?


around 2.2 million for the procurer, and around 7 million for the retriever.

Yes, that's a 900% return for the procurer.


Ouch. That's a crazy price increase! Really crazy!!
Styth spiting
Brutor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#11 - 2012-08-27 19:22:40 UTC


Salpad wrote:
Any idea on when the market price will normalize, to make building them at the new BPO/BPC costs at least slightly profitable?

Well there was the stock piles pre-patch that we will need to burn though and then there are the manufacturing jobs that were started that carried over though the patch (The ones people got started before the patch dropped using the old mineral prices).

Having been the person who posted the majority of the info on the mat changes and what not I was following the market pretty closely for the first few weeks. There were roughly 1200 retrievers / procurers before mat changes were listed with about 90% getting bought up in the first 2 hours of the news dropping, and it should be assumed that at least 2500 of each were able to get manufactured / queued before the patch dropped, but its pretty hard to speculate on these numbers.

Procurer prices will not be increasing near their manufacturing costs for at least 6 months minimum. Retrievers on the other hand will be burned though relativity fast because of the popularity of the Mackinaws now (and retrivers are used in their manufacturing). This is why Mackinaw prices have been dropping enough though there is very high demand (so many people manufacturing them). So I would be very surprised in Retrievers prices didn't normalize in about 2 months.


Salpad wrote:

I mean, as I recall it, after the patch there's been a trade volume of a bit over 2000 Procurers sold per day, and a bit under 2000 Retrievers.

90% of these sales are people selling who bought pre-patch to a buy order who are then re-listing as well orders and being bought which are re-listed and re-bought, etc. etc. etc. People who don't want to wait any longer for the prices to increase are selling off, while people willing to wait longer or want to make a few .01 are simply buying up or re-listing. Just because they are being bought and sold doesn't mean their being bought and used, or each sale is a different ship.


Salpad wrote:

Am I reading the graph right? If roughly 15k of each are sold per week, how long can pre-patch hull stocks last? A month? Four months?

Again as I posted above just because the ships are being bought and sold dosen't mean they are being used. Some are simply being sold by people who bought the ships at 9M and are selling off for their profits, others are being bought up at 20M price atm and holding onto them until they hit 35M. Some are just doing your standing .01 isk sales. If you want to see real market changes look at the kill boards to see how many of the ship types are being destroyed to see how many are being removed from the game.


Illest Insurrectionist wrote:
No real reason to believe they'd ever have to normalize. Someone pre-patch mentioned there were 500 BPOs sold in jita. At 540/per that was ~270,000 ships.

It's more likely that 90% of those BPO's sold were bought assuming the NPC prices would be going up in price (since the build costs were increasing) which they did.
Corina Jarr
en Welle Shipping Inc.
#12 - 2012-08-27 19:44:31 UTC
Salpad wrote:
Steve Ronuken wrote:
Salpad wrote:
10% of population does sound optimistic, yes.

What were the pre-patch production costs of barges?


around 2.2 million for the procurer, and around 7 million for the retriever.

Yes, that's a 900% return for the procurer.


Ouch. That's a crazy price increase! Really crazy!!

I <3 speculation.
Herr Hammer Draken
#13 - 2012-08-30 23:04:43 UTC
Salpad wrote:
Any idea on when the market price will normalize, to make building them at the new BPO/BPC costs at least slightly profitable?

I mean, as I recall it, after the patch there's been a trade volume of a bit over 2000 Procurers sold per day, and a bit under 2000 Retrievers.

Am I reading the graph right? If roughly 15k of each are sold per week, how long can pre-patch hull stocks last? A month? Four months?


Keep in mind a lot of Jita sales traffic is resellers not end users. I would say at least a years worth of prepatch stock exsists if not more. Go out to remote hubs and look at sales numbers where end users are buying. How to tell if they are end users? If the prices they are buying at are near production costs IE near 25 million. Product moving at much lower costs are resellers (traders)buying in volume and moving to remote hubs to resell at higher prices.

Since the bulk of the prepatch major builders with access to the volume of minerals required to supply their building requirements live near Jita and require Jita for the sales numbers they need to move product then the prices at Jita may never reach the after patch building cost.

Herr Hammer Draken "The Amarr Prophet"
Trader MoeJoe
Doomheim
#14 - 2012-09-01 11:21:28 UTC
I totally agree with the assessment of prices staying low for possibly many years, even for macks and skiffs which are following the hulk price down. After all, why would demand be rising? Everyone and their grandmother seems to be out mining with no risk involved.

You can say what you want about gankers, but they created demand for ships and modules and kept the price pretty high and stable. Now with most ganking pretty much nerfed, where will the demand for new mining ships come from? A miner's skiff or mack could potentially last their whole eve life with their new ehp.

Now mineral and ice prices are falling as well due to the huge surge in miners. Wasn't the idea of getting rid of drone pooh to make the mineral prices rise and make mining a good career? With all the afk/bot miners this new patch created, it seems a little counter-productive to me. Get ready for the miner threads whining over 4 isk trit.

Just one man's opinion.
Herr Hammer Draken
#15 - 2012-09-01 13:39:07 UTC
Trader MoeJoe wrote:
I totally agree with the assessment of prices staying low for possibly many years, even for macks and skiffs which are following the hulk price down. After all, why would demand be rising? Everyone and their grandmother seems to be out mining with no risk involved.

You can say what you want about gankers, but they created demand for ships and modules and kept the price pretty high and stable. Now with most ganking pretty much nerfed, where will the demand for new mining ships come from? A miner's skiff or mack could potentially last their whole eve life with their new ehp.

Now mineral and ice prices are falling as well due to the huge surge in miners. Wasn't the idea of getting rid of drone pooh to make the mineral prices rise and make mining a good career? With all the afk/bot miners this new patch created, it seems a little counter-productive to me. Get ready for the miner threads whining over 4 isk trit.

Just one man's opinion.


Oh so much over statements about ganking.

1. None of the new mining barges are gank proof. I can not stress this important concept enough.
Resources are what make null space a place to fight over and create wars.
Same concept can apply to high sec. Duh!

2. The game is going to see a new equilibrium around mining a new balance will form it is still in its infant stages.
This will be a balance around supply and demand along with ganks for hire.
Mined out belts will be the starting point for this new political balance around mining. A limited resource to fight over.

3. Also this will serve better than anything else has to date on moving people out of high traffic areas in EVE.
The cure for high traffic is the high traffic itself. Let it happen. Watch the complaint threads that are just getting started.

There is so much just below the surface, the hints of which are just begining. The game will adjust itself.
Players mostly are the last to change and adapt to a new situation. They prefer to whine about the change like you just did.
Only a few are able to get out ahead of it and profit from it. The rest prefer to complain that the change will cause them harm.
So much like real life.

Herr Hammer Draken "The Amarr Prophet"
Sizeof Void
Ninja Suicide Squadron
#16 - 2012-09-04 02:46:20 UTC
Trader MoeJoe wrote:
I totally agree with the assessment of prices staying low for possibly many years, even for macks and skiffs which are following the hulk price down. After all, why would demand be rising? Everyone and their grandmother seems to be out mining with no risk involved.
Hulk prices are dropping because many miners are switching to Mackinaws and/or Skiffs. The Mackinaw and Skiff got huge buffs to mining efficiency - in addition to the cargohold and tanking buffs - which have made the Hulk "less efficient", relatively speaking, for several mining operators.

The initial spike in prices for Mackinaws and Skiffs, followed by a gradual downward price trend is nothing new. It happens after virtually every new ship introduction, and/or significant buff which creates a new FOTM. It will level off and stabilize soon.

However, demands for Mackinaws and Skiffs are likely to remain much higher than before the changes, and demand for Hulks should be lowered correspondingly. This was apparently CCP's goal, in providing miners with a selection of equally viable ships, rather than one "king of the mountain" ship and a couple of specialty boats.

Trader MoeJoe wrote:
You can say what you want about gankers, but they created demand for ships and modules and kept the price pretty high and stable. Now with most ganking pretty much nerfed, where will the demand for new mining ships come from? A miner's skiff or mack could potentially last their whole eve life with their new ehp.

Ganking has only been nerfed if you believe that gankers were interested in turning a profit by ganking miners. They weren't. Gankers who want to make a profit target haulers, not miners.

As long as the cost of ganking remains significantly lower than the cost of the target, ganking for tears will continue. Macks and Skiffs, as well as Hulks, are viable targets, even with the buffed tanks, since they cost more than the ships required to kill them.

Procurers, however, are more problematic. Except for fitting a fleet of Velators, I haven't yet found a cost-effective way to gank a Procurer. The darn thing just tanks too much, given its cost (esp. if you built it prior to the manufacturing changes).

Trader MoeJoe wrote:
Now mineral and ice prices are falling as well due to the huge surge in miners. Wasn't the idea of getting rid of drone pooh to make the mineral prices rise and make mining a good career? With all the afk/bot miners this new patch created, it seems a little counter-productive to me. Get ready for the miner threads whining over 4 isk trit.

I don't believe that there has been a huge surge in miners. Mining is still one of the most mindless and boring things you can do in the game - changing the ship stats doesn't change that fact. And, since there has been no massive surge in new player subs, and I rather doubt that swarms of PVP players in the game have suddenly decided to try mining, I suspect that the number of miners, incl. bots, is still somewhat constant.

What has changed is the mining efficiency of the entry level barges, and, thus, lower-SP mining toons. The new mining turret bonuses to the Procurer and the Retriever allow them to mine ore/ice as well as the old Covetor and nearly as well as the exhumers, yet with a much lower SP requirement. If you look at the stats on how many Retrievers were in use before the buff, you can easily see how increasing their productivity by 50% might affect low-end mineral and ice prices.
RangerGord
Rothschild's Sewage and Septic Sucking Services
The Possum Lodge
#17 - 2012-09-05 22:37:16 UTC
I just had a brilliant thought, one surefire way to normalize the barge costs to actual production would be to adjust the scrap rate to post-patch instead of still being pre-patch... as it stands you only get pre-patch minerals/etc from scrapping a barge (possibly exhumer, but i haven't checked those rates).
shar'ra matcevsovski
Doomheim
#18 - 2012-09-05 23:13:04 UTC
RangerGord wrote:
I just had a brilliant thought, .


nope, you did not

shar'ra phone home
Herr Hammer Draken
#19 - 2012-09-05 23:25:12 UTC
shar'ra matcevsovski wrote:
RangerGord wrote:
I just had a brilliant thought, .


nope, you did not


I second this.

Herr Hammer Draken "The Amarr Prophet"
RangerGord
Rothschild's Sewage and Septic Sucking Services
The Possum Lodge
#20 - 2012-09-06 00:51:58 UTC
i guess teens living in mom's house just love to e-hate people...
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