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T2 manufacturing profits - changes and predictions
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Princess Strawberry
#1 - 2012-06-10 12:56:37 UTC
So I've been away from Eve for about a year, came back, restarted my industry operations. There have been a lot of changes! Overall though it's not massively different from before, still profitable, although there have been a lot of shifting around in the costs of components and overall most sale prices of T2 have gone up.

Here's what I gleaned from reading the forum chatter behind the reasons.

  • Minerals up massively. Hulkageddon and Burn Jita seem to have provided a either a smokescreen for, or were part of, the mineral market manipulation recently which seems to have been driven by the Goons and followed by many speculators. However, there have also been some quite significant changes to loot drops so CCP's actions have also been a key driver. With the coming changes to mining and more manipulation/speculation, I expect a bumpy ride.
  • Construction components also up massively. OTEC (which includes the Goons and other corps) have driven up the costs, apparently. However, Technetium is so scarce anyway that I wonder how much affect OTEC's market manipulation really had - the trend in price increase seems steady and goes further back than (I believe) OTEC has been attempting to manipulate the market. I could be wrong there, I'm not an insider to OTEC, but it seems to me that the scarcity is the prime reason for the increase and manipulation has only a minor effect. I'd expect continued price increases.
  • Datacores I expect to drop in price with the changes to faction warfare LP stores, and looking at the prices recently that market does seem to have turned the corner and prices starting to decline already. However, this decline may be short term and down to users cashing in research points with agents before the nerf, thus flooding the market. I personally am predicting a slight decline though, ending up below Feb 2011 levels.
  • PI isn't a big part of the picture, costs are low and I expect they'll stay low. Skills required are virtually zero, market is oversupplied.


Slightly fuller discussion (with charts) in my blog.

Did I miss anything? Trying to catch up on a year's worth of Eve I'm sure I've missed something, and swallowed a couple of clock and bull stories too. Big smile Do you agree/disagree with my assessment?

http://eveonomics.blogspot.co.uk/
Johnny Frecko
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#2 - 2012-06-10 13:51:23 UTC  |  Edited by: Johnny Frecko
Minerals didn't go up because of burn jita nor hulkageddon.
Minerals primarly went up due to drone poo removal.

Which according to various un-official charts and graphs were about 20-40% of the high-end minerals coming into the game.
Another nerf was the removal of T1 production from the loot table and an increase in the meta 1-4(specially 4) drop rates.

that alone caused the minerals to spike upwards heavily,highends are now ballancing themselves out while the the lowends took a surprising strong momentum upwards.

edit; welcome back
SetrakDark
Doomheim
#3 - 2012-06-10 13:52:54 UTC  |  Edited by: SetrakDark
Johnny Frecko wrote:
Minerals didn't go up because of burn jita nor hulkageddon.
Minerals primarly went up due to drone poo removal.


What she said.

Edit: well, speculation over drone poo removal, but in effect the same thing.
Princess Strawberry
#4 - 2012-06-10 14:00:22 UTC
Johnny Frecko wrote:
Minerals didn't go up because of burn jita nor hulkageddon.
Minerals primarly went up due to drone poo removal.

Which according to various un-official charts and graphs were about 20-40% of the high-end minerals coming into the game.
Another nerf was the removal of T1 production from the loot table and an increase in the meta 1-4(specially 4) drop rates.

that alone caused the minerals to spike upwards heavily,highends are now ballancing themselves out while the the lowends took a surprising strong momentum upwards.


Agreed. Perhaps I wasn't 100% clear: I think Goons etc. and many observers overstate what effect those events have on the market, and the main reason behind the market changes are CCP actions on loot and drones. Same with the construction components; scarcity is the main reason it keeps going up, player-driven manipulation has a lower effect.

http://eveonomics.blogspot.co.uk/
Johnny Frecko
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#5 - 2012-06-10 14:21:18 UTC
I'm not a heavy T2 producer, but i've heard that the constant increase of tech due to OTEC(A cartel with a price mark) makes T2 ships more expensive. But take my words very carefuly on this as i have minimal information on the subject.
Princess Strawberry
#6 - 2012-06-10 14:29:05 UTC
Johnny Frecko wrote:
I'm not a heavy T2 producer, but i've heard that the constant increase of tech due to OTEC(A cartel with a price mark) makes T2 ships more expensive. But take my words very carefuly on this as i have minimal information on the subject.


I don't make T2 ships either - they weren't very profitable previously, lots of hauling/mining required and not very easy to sell (at least compared to modules). Pain in the proverbial.

Datacores are a lower part of the production costs, the main parts are minerals (more so than modules) and the construction components, both of which have increased massively so I'd expect an even bigger impact on T2 ships as a result of all these market changes. You have decryptors to factor in too though which makes an analysis more complex. The selling price of ships has gone up quite a bit though - overall I would not be surprised if it's the same overall impact as with modules: profitability has stayed approximately the same. Maybe I'll do some analysis later to either confirm my prediction/make a fool of myself Smile

PS thanks for the welcome back!

http://eveonomics.blogspot.co.uk/
Aineko Macx
#7 - 2012-06-10 18:22:29 UTC
Princess Strawberry wrote:
The selling price of ships has gone up quite a bit though - overall I would not be surprised if it's the same overall impact as with modules: profitability has stayed approximately the same.

Correct. As before, approximately two thirds of all invention options produce T2 items at a loss.

Another reason for the general price increase is the increased ISK availability.

iveeCore 3.0: The PHP engine for industrial activities and CREST library
Princess Strawberry
#8 - 2012-06-12 16:58:51 UTC
Aineko Macx wrote:

Another reason for the general price increase is the increased ISK availability.


/facepalm. How could I forget inflation? Thanks for the reminder.

http://eveonomics.blogspot.co.uk/