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Trying to get a grasp on the OTEC and technium supply to market

Author
Dinsdale Pirannha
Pirannha Corp
#1 - 2012-06-06 15:13:29 UTC
I understand who / what the main players are in OTEC, and the subsequent escalation in tech prices and tech-based products.

What I am not able to glean from the market volumes is if:

a. OTEC is merely managing sell price, but not supply to the market.
b. OTEC is managing sell price, and also limiting supply reaching the market
im mrmessy
Perkone
Caldari State
#2 - 2012-06-06 15:19:56 UTC
The main Technetium holding entities have agreed on a minimum sell price. There is no need to manage supply as hisec seems capable of using it all up
Darth Tickles
Doomheim
#3 - 2012-06-06 15:36:06 UTC
im mrmessy wrote:
The main Technetium holding entities have agreed on a minimum sell price. There is no need to manage supply as hisec seems capable of using it all up


what she said

price is/was below long term optimal due to massive stockpiles. stockpiles dried up, cartel then directed price up as a cartel instead of waiting for the market to drive it there naturally.

best out of ass guesses for long term stable is 250k-300k pu
Dinsdale Pirannha
Pirannha Corp
#4 - 2012-06-06 15:41:31 UTC
OK, so now I know what goons are saying about the supply management side.
It may be completely accurate, but given the goons' reputation re: honesty and scamming, I would like to see some confirmation from the "neutral" parties, if there is such a thing.
Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#5 - 2012-06-06 15:57:13 UTC
neutral parties would have no way of knowing

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.

Darth Tickles
Doomheim
#6 - 2012-06-06 16:01:41 UTC  |  Edited by: Darth Tickles
Weaselior wrote:
neutral parties would have no way of knowing


I'll add to this the point that nobody gives enough of a **** about if you believe it or not to provide any additional confirmation.
Airto TLA
Acorn's Wonder Bars
#7 - 2012-06-06 19:32:22 UTC
If they are running a cartel and setting the price above the market clearing price they are developing a surplus. This surplus is either replacing the stockpiles or being invested in their own assets (because even the Goons would not be immune to the Tecnium I mine is free fallacy).

They are probaly not devolping large surpluses though since demand for Tech is highly inelastic and price increases do not lower demand significantly. The need for Tech 2 items will remain relativly steady until the price of a substitute becomes price/performance competive (mostly meta 4 modultes and low end faction).

So very likley Goons are building a a) surplus or b) heavily discounting internally; the surplus is not enormous since making tech 2 PVP gear is often still profitable and this is a sign technim will continue to bought; the surplus will probaly be managable to ring mining throws a monkey wrench in the whole process.

Three amusing things about a cartel:

1.) The best way to profit from a cartel is not be a supplier not in the cartel (you can sell ALL your production at a price just below the cartels price.)

2.) The second best way to profit from a cartel is to cheat, you sell your cartel allotment at cartel price and your surplus slightly cheaper (getting caught is bad though)

3) The best way to maintain cartel is to back off the least effecient supply sources, but do to market forces of the increased prices everyone wants to increase suppply.

Goons are slipping a few of the normal problems that real worrld cartels have (they have real control over a large portion of the market, they can engage in bahavior (Hulkageddon) that has no real world equivilant, and the locked materials nature of BPOS and Tech moons in the game restricts the real world end runs that are possible versus a cartel
Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
#8 - 2012-06-07 00:58:56 UTC
If OTEC was solely CFC members we might have enough trust to use a quota system or supply restriction system, but given that OTEC includes our enemies that would be completely unmanagable.

Head of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal Pubbie Management and Exploitation Division.

corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
#9 - 2012-06-07 01:26:11 UTC
Weaselior wrote:
If OTEC was solely CFC members we might have enough trust to use a quota system or supply restriction system, but given that OTEC includes our enemies that would be completely unmanagable.


just in case ya'll couldn't figure this out, weaselior just inadvertently leaked our upcoming war plans.

This post was crafted by a member of the GoonSwarm Federation Economic Cabal, the foremost authority on Eve: Online economics and gameplay.

fofofo

Kara Books
Deal with IT.
#10 - 2012-06-07 01:30:22 UTC
Weaselior wrote:
If OTEC was solely CFC members we might have enough trust to use a quota system or supply restriction system, but given that OTEC includes our enemies that would be completely unmanagable.


So basically what your saying here is, the only way to Fix this problem and solve world hunger at the same time, is to Deregulate the Banks?
Airto TLA
Acorn's Wonder Bars
#11 - 2012-06-07 18:11:21 UTC
No he just said the only only to solve world hunger is to shoot the hungry people.
Hemmo Paskiainen
#12 - 2012-06-09 00:16:05 UTC
Airto TLA wrote:
No he just said the only only to solve world hunger is to shoot the hungry people.

no, he said that goons dont trust their enemies with a quota based system to regulate prices better. This means that they will be going after the rest of the techmoons to get a better grip on the supply...

if they really want to show ccp how redicules the choise of techmoon implementatios was, they would go after all techmoons and stop selling tech.... that will screw up the eve economy so much that it actualy can plummet the subscriptions and destroy eve..

If relativity equals time plus momentum, what equals relativity, if the momentum is minus to the time?

Kara Books
Deal with IT.
#13 - 2012-06-09 03:47:08 UTC
Hemmo Paskiainen wrote:
Airto TLA wrote:
No he just said the only only to solve world hunger is to shoot the hungry people.

no, he said that goons dont trust their enemies with a quota based system to regulate prices better. This means that they will be going after the rest of the techmoons to get a better grip on the supply...

if they really want to show ccp how redicules the choise of techmoon implementatios was, they would go after all techmoons and stop selling tech.... that will screw up the eve economy so much that it actualy can plummet the subscriptions and destroy eve..


FYI

there is a limit how far you can push any single resource in the game, for example, the glass ceiling of the hulk is about 300M isk, anything more and it becomes more practical and economical to mine in a Rokh, to raise hulk prices, they would have to raise the Rokh prices by raising the mineral prices, creating a vicous cycle that doesn't play into the hands of the resource in question.

There are things the goons can do to halt the economy to a grinding standstill, Im pretty sure their aware of it, but not taking it all the 100% way, maybe a reason for that?

Step 1
Kill ice miners

Step 2
????

Step 3
Dont over do it

Step 4
Profit!


Profits, is any one here surprised?

as for the OP
you should be asking for CCP to introduce mining equipment that can be equipped on ships you can tank out the ying yang, NOT rush CCP into introducing ring mining, because that's how I read it.

Let CCP finish their number crunching, so they can stick it to the oligarchs really good.
SetrakDark
Doomheim
#14 - 2012-06-09 03:56:50 UTC  |  Edited by: SetrakDark
As much as I detest "pubbie" hyperbole, I'm actually pretty confident that starving the economy entirely of tech would "break" the game for a substantial number of people. To be clear, I'm not necessarily saying any group could or would do this, nor am I saying if they did it would be an inevitable direct result. However, that said, if there was anything players could do to fundamentally break the expected level of gameplay for the average Eve player, completely, or near-completely, strangling the supply of technetium would be the most viable candidate for success.
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#15 - 2012-06-09 05:45:50 UTC
I don't see what's game breaking about removing T2. It's not like it's always been in game to begin with.

What I find and agree with and even posted about it on the GD forums, is about the miners: "don't overdo it".
You see what happens when fishers kill too much fish... they end up without profit.
SetrakDark
Doomheim
#16 - 2012-06-09 05:48:17 UTC
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
I don't see what's game breaking about removing T2. It's not like it's always been in game to begin with.


I don't see what would be chaos-inducing about removing oil. It's not like civilizations have had it to begin with.

P.S. Owned
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
#17 - 2012-06-09 05:51:17 UTC
SetrakDark wrote:
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:
I don't see what's game breaking about removing T2. It's not like it's always been in game to begin with.


I don't see what would be chaos-inducing about removing oil. It's not like civilizations have had it to begin with.

P.S. Owned


We'd switch to water + solar + wind energy stuff and maybe nuclear reactors.

Humans are less limited than you think they are.

We are terrible resources grasshoppers, but awesome.
Marsan
#18 - 2012-06-09 06:46:38 UTC
Removing T2 wouldn't break the game more than say removing deadspace modules or pirate faction ships. Basically if Tech 2 stuff was unavailable people would shift to meta/faction/deadspace modules, and fly tech 1 or faction ships. Sure the lack of cloaky ships, bombers, facons, and HICs would change game play, but the game wouldn't die.

Former forum cheerleader CCP, now just a grumpy small portion of the community.

Kara Books
Deal with IT.
#19 - 2012-06-09 07:41:38 UTC
SetrakDark wrote:
As much as I detest "pubbie" hyperbole, I'm actually pretty confident that starving the economy entirely of tech would "break" the game for a substantial number of people. To be clear, I'm not necessarily saying any group could or would do this, nor am I saying if they did it would be an inevitable direct result. However, that said, if there was anything players could do to fundamentally break the expected level of gameplay for the average Eve player, completely, or near-completely, strangling the supply of technetium would be the most viable candidate for success.


Well, there, I guess we now know the goons definitely don't have access to game feature development thank you for that inside information.

I smell a little bit of fear in those words, perhaps a weakness, perhaps some ones put all their eggs in one basket.


"Goons will have T2 ships, every one else will not"

and so, blueprint copy's where created.

"Those who do not know their past, are condemned to repeat it"
George Santayana
Phill Esteen
Federal Navy Academy
Gallente Federation
#20 - 2012-06-09 07:52:18 UTC
if Goons cut off the tech supply, the tech-foil hat industry will completely implode! /o\ /o\ /o\

– postum faex est – 

never forget

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