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Story help. Actual population of systems.

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Stitcher
School of Applied Knowledge
Caldari State
#41 - 2012-04-04 08:20:53 UTC  |  Edited by: Stitcher
okay, gonna work through my logic here...



We know how many temperate worlds there are in Empire space (high sec and low sec)

We know how many planets total there are in Empire space.

We therefore know the percentage of Empire space worlds which are temperate - 11.2%

If only 11.2% of E-space planets are temperate, then only 11.2% of E-space systems contain a temperate world, right?

Except that's wrong, because It assumes only one planet per system.

Derp.

The reason I'm wrong is because I was forgetting to factor in that there are multiple planets per system, each with an 11.2% probability of being a temperate.

Let's have a wild guess at this and say that the average number of planets per system is 8.5

We're not after specific combinations, so we have an (11.5 x 8)% probability per system that it's going to have at least one temperate world in it.

0.112 x 8.5 = 0.952 = 95.2%. 95.2% of 702 is 668, after rounding.


If we do it your way, and the empire is 36% of all systems and therefore 36% of all planets, and there are 1829 temperate worlds in E-space, then the empire actually controls 673 temperate worlds or, in other words, a temperate world in 95.9% of all their systems.

668 = X
673 = Y

3,000,000,000,000 / X = 4,491,000,000
3,000,000,000,000 / Y = 4,458,000,000

average of those two = 4,474,500,000


you're right, 4.47 billion people per planet on average doesn't sound so ridiculous, especially when you consider that Earth currently stands at 7 billion..

it's nice to be proven wrong. then you can stop Smile thanks!

AKA Hambone

Author of The Deathworlders
Publius Valerius
AirGuard
LowSechnaya Sholupen
#42 - 2012-04-04 15:16:51 UTC  |  Edited by: Publius Valerius
Stitcher wrote:


it's nice to be proven wrong. then you can stop Smile thanks!


Sure... no problem; now you are of the hookPirate (just joking the whole time) P

I would love to have those classes ingame. See here:

http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/376566/march-07-2011/joshua-foer
Montmazar
Aliastra
Gallente Federation
#43 - 2012-04-14 05:35:47 UTC  |  Edited by: Montmazar
CCP Abraxas wrote:
Mirajane Cromwell wrote:
The number of babies born each year must be at least the same or higher than the amount of deaths on planets, in stations, in npc ships and in capsuleer ships or otherwise the population would not grow at all.
Those survivors' rates, I, uh ...

Let's try to leave assumed ship deaths out of the equation of total New Eden population numbers if we can. I'd rather that they didn't affect the total pop. at all, and if they actually do, I am going to sit in a room with some people and shout at them until we can figure out a more sensible average survival rate. I don't see any sense in masses of people signing up for what's basically a career of suicide missions.


Awesome! That aspect of the game world has always been immersion breaking for me. Before that chart came out, I figured crew rates were tiny and survival rates were huge. But after it did come out, nothing made any sense.

Even in wartime, when people are motivated by patriotism, you don't see masses volunteering for high casualty situations. Some do, but conscription was invented for a reason. So it makes no sense that hundreds of millions people would volunteer to help make some bastard in an egg rich, at the cost of their lives. Even in the age of sail, when life was cheap and crews were very small, crew was still precious enough as to lead to the practice of kidnapping new crew. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impressment) There is nothing I've seen in the fiction to indicate this is how I fill up my Myrm with people.
Samuel payne Thorstensen
Sebiestor Tribe
Minmatar Republic
#44 - 2012-04-21 23:24:09 UTC
They should make planets like Amarr Prime look populated. Sure, you see lights. But no activity whatsoever outside the planet, makes no sense really. It would most likely had dozens of ships and more around it.
Tricky Dutch
Anoikis Equilibrium
Honorable Third Party
#45 - 2012-05-01 07:28:11 UTC
I hate to rekindle the fire, but what about W-space? It's obvious that due to the presence of Customs offices that capsuleers weren't the first ones in (excluding sleepers).

I've seen a range of planets in W-space, but never one lit up. Is it possible that people live there too, in their own, independent colonies?
Che Biko
Alexylva Paradox
#46 - 2012-05-01 15:54:42 UTC
The customs offices came after the capsuleers.

As for independent colonies, I'd say anything is possible.

Coordination Channel for Consolidated Space Rescue Cooperation

Open Letter to the Aidonis Foundation Directorate
Eugene Kerner
TunDraGon
Goonswarm Federation
#47 - 2012-05-03 10:35:47 UTC
I think the numbers are MUCH lower.
There were just about 80 or so years from the discovery of the EvE wh to its closure. So the time where colonists actually came through the gate might even be significantly lower.
After the closure the remaining (like in "not dead") colonists on all populated planets(
Quote:
8100 AD Smaller settlements of New Eden settlers have perished, with only a few saved by larger settlements close by
) had about 15000 years to grow and develope.
Its quoted (for exaple in the old storyline intro video) that "millions of colonists" went through the eve wh to New Eden. The total population of New Eden maybe severall billions but i doubt that it is within the possibilities of maths and growth rates that it would scratch trillions ;-)

TunDraGon is recruiting! "Also, your boobs [:o] "   CCP Eterne, 2012 "When in doubt...make a diȼk joke." Robin Williams - RIP
Eugene Kerner
TunDraGon
Goonswarm Federation
#48 - 2012-05-11 07:36:55 UTC  |  Edited by: Eugene Kerner
Eugene Kerner wrote:
I think the numbers are MUCH lower.
There were just about 80 or so years from the discovery of the EvE wh to its closure. So the time where colonists actually came through the gate might even be significantly lower.
After the closure the remaining (like in "not dead") colonists on all populated planets(
Quote:
8100 AD Smaller settlements of New Eden settlers have perished, with only a few saved by larger settlements close by
) had about 15000 years to grow and develope.
Its quoted (for exaple in the old storyline intro video) that "millions of colonists" went through the eve wh to New Eden. The total population of New Eden maybe severall billions but i doubt that it is within the possibilities of maths and growth rates that it would scratch trillions ;-)


@CCP Abraxas
Does ccp have a statement to that? I guess the place were the lore originates is the only place that could enter valid numbers into the equation and calculate a reasonable result?

TunDraGon is recruiting! "Also, your boobs [:o] "   CCP Eterne, 2012 "When in doubt...make a diȼk joke." Robin Williams - RIP
Mirajane Cromwell
#49 - 2012-05-17 18:44:33 UTC
Montmazar wrote:
CCP Abraxas wrote:
Mirajane Cromwell wrote:
The number of babies born each year must be at least the same or higher than the amount of deaths on planets, in stations, in npc ships and in capsuleer ships or otherwise the population would not grow at all.
Those survivors' rates, I, uh ...

Let's try to leave assumed ship deaths out of the equation of total New Eden population numbers if we can. I'd rather that they didn't affect the total pop. at all, and if they actually do, I am going to sit in a room with some people and shout at them until we can figure out a more sensible average survival rate. I don't see any sense in masses of people signing up for what's basically a career of suicide missions.


Awesome! That aspect of the game world has always been immersion breaking for me. Before that chart came out, I figured crew rates were tiny and survival rates were huge. But after it did come out, nothing made any sense.

Even in wartime, when people are motivated by patriotism, you don't see masses volunteering for high casualty situations. Some do, but conscription was invented for a reason. So it makes no sense that hundreds of millions people would volunteer to help make some bastard in an egg rich, at the cost of their lives. Even in the age of sail, when life was cheap and crews were very small, crew was still precious enough as to lead to the practice of kidnapping new crew. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impressment) There is nothing I've seen in the fiction to indicate this is how I fill up my Myrm with people.

We could solve this by assuming that all non-essential crew members are required to enter escape pods at the moment the ship enters combat (or is about to enter) and essential crew member (f.ex. the guys who keep our guns running) enter them when situation gets critical. Upon ship destruction the escape pods survive but are hidden from capsuleer camerasystems in order to guarantee the safety of the crewmen (if they were visible, we would shoot them too). There could be also non-capsuleer ships that do nothing else but pick up those npc escape pods and these would be hidden from capsuleers as well with some jovian/concord tech - I think it was said in wiki or in chronicle that lots of npc stuff is hidden from capsuleers cameras. I think this way we could say that there's something like 90%-95% crew survival rate.
Akir Apathi
Hakaari Inc.
#50 - 2012-05-20 00:41:25 UTC
This is ridiculous. I don't see how anyone could manage time to fly around at all considering the amount of sex we must have.

"He's happy. We must stop this before it spreads." - Dr. House
Eugene Kerner
TunDraGon
Goonswarm Federation
#51 - 2012-05-21 07:17:58 UTC
Akir Apathi wrote:
This is ridiculous. I don't see how anyone could manage time to fly around at all considering the amount of sex we must have.


This

TunDraGon is recruiting! "Also, your boobs [:o] "   CCP Eterne, 2012 "When in doubt...make a diȼk joke." Robin Williams - RIP
Ulphus
Icecream Audit Office
#52 - 2012-05-26 20:27:30 UTC
Templar One, 60% of the way through according to my kindle, says
"At present she was the guardian of more than one trillion souls across thousands of worlds."

Does that help you define the size of your ball-park a little better?

-- If you are neutral in matters of oppression, you have chosen the side of the oppressor.
Seriphyn Inhonores
Elusenian Cooperative
#53 - 2012-05-27 11:39:29 UTC
Templar One also says Ishukone is at 300 million souls.
Eugene Kerner
TunDraGon
Goonswarm Federation
#54 - 2012-05-29 05:15:23 UTC  |  Edited by: Eugene Kerner
Ulphus wrote:
Templar One, 60% of the way through according to my kindle, says
"At present she was the guardian of more than one trillion souls across thousands of worlds."

Does that help you define the size of your ball-park a little better?


I still doubt this high numbers.

TunDraGon is recruiting! "Also, your boobs [:o] "   CCP Eterne, 2012 "When in doubt...make a diȼk joke." Robin Williams - RIP
Che Biko
Alexylva Paradox
#55 - 2012-05-29 12:55:58 UTC  |  Edited by: Che Biko
Well, Earth counts ~0.007 trillion souls, and we're not able to build cities under water, on moons, in space and stuff like that. I think saying New Eden counts trilions of souls isn't that far-fetched.
Of course, if that is 6 trillion or 937 trillion is quite something different.

Coordination Channel for Consolidated Space Rescue Cooperation

Open Letter to the Aidonis Foundation Directorate
Arista Shahni
Ministry of War
Amarr Empire
#56 - 2012-05-29 13:15:02 UTC  |  Edited by: Arista Shahni
Mirajane Cromwell wrote:

We could solve this by assuming that all non-essential crew members are required to enter escape pods at the moment the ship enters combat (or is about to enter) and essential crew member (f.ex. the guys who keep our guns running) enter them when situation gets critical. Upon ship destruction the escape pods survive but are hidden from capsuleer camerasystems in order to guarantee the safety of the crewmen (if they were visible, we would shoot them too). There could be also non-capsuleer ships that do nothing else but pick up those npc escape pods and these would be hidden from capsuleers as well with some jovian/concord tech - I think it was said in wiki or in chronicle that lots of npc stuff is hidden from capsuleers cameras. I think this way we could say that there's something like 90%-95% crew survival rate.


Ehh. But survivability isn't that high. :/ http://wiki.eveonline.com/en/wiki/New_Eden_Crew_Guidelines -- if it still applies --shows the average percentage of surviving crew if the ship in question is destroyed in space. Of course if a capsuleer WANTS their crew compliment with one foot out the door the minute you're yellowboxed that would be their personal choice..

I'd be honest - I wouldn't shoot a pod full of baseliners even if it was visible. Who cares? You're wasting ISK of ammo on people who couldn't accumulate a single ISK in their lifetime (if I'm remembering right - an interstellar credit is an amount of money unfathomable to a non-capsuleer). They're literally *not worth the ammo to shoot*, unless you're the type who'd waste a very expensive bullet to kill a butterfly.

But to gently adjust the "average survivability" of a baseliner's career survival chance in space, on top of PC Capsuleers, there's also CONCORD and then all the other little NPC ships flying around that go generally unmolested(or unmolestable?) in space, as well as the cautious mission-runners and the like who quietly live their life in Empire space.

Want that 95% survivability rating? Then a career with CONCORD or in CONCORD patrolled territory is the one for you!

But... if you're the desperate soul planetside who wanted to see the stars *no matter what*, or had other reasons to get the heck off of your planet, or you're in the process of 're-education' to have your soul brought back into the fold of the one true God (or have been ground out in a harsh breeding program) *coughs politely*, then voila, you're on a PC Capsuleer's ship.

My memory of some of the Chronicles is dusty but I do remember one that discusses someone signing onto a Capsuleer's ship knowing full well it was pretty much signing a deal with the Devil. Imagine the psych eval's these people likely go through to get into a ship's crew to be in charge of vital equipment.. would take a very... distinct type of individual to be willing to take the risk. Again, something reflected in more than one of those older chronicles and quite a few of the player's stories that take the crew into consideration.

Though it would be nice to think that a lot of the NPC's survive because so many Capsuleers survive.. my mind sort of drifts out of character to player churn (people who start playing EVE and ragequit, or who start playing eve, decide they just don't like it or don't get it, stop forever) and biomassed alts. The people who quit -- these Capsuleers, unless they re-sub, could almost be considered... well.. dead. At best MIA. The biomassed ones definitely are dead.

There's immortal and then there's immortal. It's a nice thought to think "We can clone, therefore we're immortal. Part of me is bothered by the sheer swaths of death we leave behind..." but Capsuleers do die. For good. Forever. And I suspect that number, though hidden from us, is a pretty decently sized one. (And then lets not get into the discussion of whether the clone == the original oor not, or we could argue that capsuleers also die in droves.)

Easy to assume the quick-fit Rifter has a skeleton complement, and the much loved 'baby' in your personal fleet holding a full highly trained complement.

Go with an average.

Go to the killboard statistics sites or the in-game map for ships popped in each system to at least monitor PvP ship crew deaths. The numbers are all, in one form or another, there. That + average survivability per ship type x average ship complement = number of crew surviving (and could then see # dying) daily in space due to PvP aggression.

Shame I'm so bad at math and scripting to collect data - but the data IS all there between killboards and systemlogs of # of missions run per capsuleer.

P.S. I should not post on no sleep.

"I say that even as the holy and the righteous cannot rise beyond the highest which is in each one of you - so the wicked and the weak cannot fall lower than the lowest which is in you also.  And as a single leaf turns not yellow but with the silent knowledge of the whole tree, so the wrong-doer cannot do wrong without the hidden will of you all."
Saul Elsyn
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#57 - 2012-07-15 03:02:46 UTC
Here's a little food for thought... I've come up with a relatively simple way to estimate the number of crew on the ships (npc ships... capsuleer crewed vessels seem to have much smaller crews).

Square root of a vessels mass in MT/2 +1 per each module +1 more per each turret or launcher (since those are actually two separate mounts).

Sansha Nightmare
Crew: 180

Sansha Phantasm
Crew: 67

Sansha Succubus
Crew: 31

I went with sansha ships since there's a couple incursions going on in various systems today. Pulling up my map and switching it to npc ship losses...

The incursion staging in Luromoh has seen the loss of...
2,597 ships in Sahdil
1,517 ships in Luromoh
812 ships in Nalu
699 ships in Esteben
437 ships in Nadohman
76 ships in Moussou

6,128 ships... lets assume around 1/2 of those are Nightmare battleships since we don't know how much is sansha incursion npcs, mission rats, or just general belt rats.'

3,069 Nightmares destroyed each with a crew of 180... assuming a 37.5% average survival rate means that in the last 24 hours 345,262 sansha crewmen have died in combat.

0.345 Million people. In 1 constellation, in 1 day... that's without adding in cruiser and frigate losses...

Looking around the map I see a couple systems that have registered over 20,000 npc ship deaths in the last 24 hours. Say an average of 50 crew in each and you've got... nearly a million people or more in individual systems. 2-5k ships lost seems normal for most systems.

Using the lower number I'll add it all up and the results make this universe of ours a very, very bloody place.

2,000 star systems x 2,000 ship losses x 50 crew per ship = 200 million people... lets half that for ease and the ? that is crew survival rate.

100 million ship crewman die a day in New Eden. Maybe we can come use that to get an estimate for the number of people here as a whole.

Earth's mortality rate is 0.883 percent but that just covers all deaths not just those from violence in a specific job. Using that as a jumping off point I came up with this calculation though (since only about 0.5% of America's population is in the military I'll use it as a point of reference.)

(100 million / 0.883%) / 0.5% = 2.265 trillion people as an absolute I bent over backwards and went math crazy lower limit to New Eden's population.
Che Biko
Alexylva Paradox
#58 - 2012-07-15 17:34:38 UTC
Saul Elsyn wrote:
I've come up with a relatively simple way to estimate the number of crew on the ships.

Or you could just look at these.Blink

Coordination Channel for Consolidated Space Rescue Cooperation

Open Letter to the Aidonis Foundation Directorate
Saul Elsyn
Deep Core Mining Inc.
Caldari State
#59 - 2012-07-15 20:49:54 UTC
Notice... those guidelines say minimum crew, not normal crew numbers... So if you use that as a starting point you'd probably vastly underestimating the number of crew.

The max capacity number is a good number for npc empire fleet crews... but you're just getting estimates.

I mean... I could say a frigate with a capsuleer aboard only needs 2 crew to run... and an npc frigate has a skeleton crew of 2-10 people? In fact...

I'm writing a short story from the point of view of the power engineer aboard a capsuleer frigate. There's only three people aboard... the pod pilot, the propulsion engineer, and the power engineer.

That same ship would probably have so many more people if it wasn't capsuleer crewed. I mean... it's an Incursus. It has 3 pairs of guns, a drone, and all that...

I'd say a full crew for an Incursus would be around 28-30.

But back to the actual purpose of this thread... Population of an average system.

I mean, the population of Luminare has to be tens of billions with two fully populated temperate worlds. Other systems have to vary wildly. I mean 0.0 space has to have much smaller populations after all.
Che Biko
Alexylva Paradox
#60 - 2012-07-16 20:34:14 UTC
Well, number of 180 crew for the Nightmare is below the minimum guideline for NPC battleships of 200-500, so if using those guideline numbers as a starting point will lead to vastly underestimating the number of crew, than using your numbers only increase that effect.

Coordination Channel for Consolidated Space Rescue Cooperation

Open Letter to the Aidonis Foundation Directorate
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